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Jesse Winker 2018 Outlook

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Posted (edited)
10 hours ago, En Votto Veritas said:

Winker getting love from PitcherList:

 

If we all remember, Votto wasn’t a power guy at all prior to him actually being a power guy. Honestly, there’s still a fair argument that Votto has never been a power guy, but simply an amazing hitter(in a great ballpark. Sounds a lot like Winker 

 

Edit: I may have a poor memory, as Votto had more pop than I thought in the minors. I still think it was more due to being a great hitter, than having a lot of power. Which Winker does with less minor league power track record. I still see Winker as a 20+HR/280avg/380obp guy. 

Edited by mavsfan23

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Posted (edited)

Quick comparison on Votto's age 24 season ('08) vs Winker's (current) - states from Fangraphs:

 

Season Team G PA HR R RBI SB BB% K% ISO
2008  Reds 151 589 24 69 84 7 10.00% 17.30% 0.209
2018  Reds 80 297 6 31 37 0 14.80% 13.80% 0.124
                     
    AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ BsR Off Def WAR
2008  Reds 0.297 0.368 0.506 0.375 124 -0.6 17.2 -0.1 3.6
2018  Reds 0.281 0.392 0.406 0.353 120 -2 5.3 -9.3 0.5
 

 

Winker actually with a higher BB% and lower K% with similar BaBIP and average, but Votto with a clear advantage with ISO and SLG%. The comparisons are valid, but only for the eye at the plate. Votto had much more power at this age than Winker currently does and had/has more speed for the occasional SB.

Edited by LoGo
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Due to the Reds plethora of OFers, Duvall, Winker, Schebler, BHam, Riggleman has morphed Winker into the designated double switch guy. It’s unfortunate because Winker doesn’t get that opportunity late in the game to come to bat with two runners on. Not sure why Riggleman has decided to limit Winker’s plate appearances. It’s not coincidental that the Reds are a last place team and Riggleman is the Mgr of that last place team.

 

 

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5 minutes ago, Chickie said:

Due to the Reds plethora of OFers, Duvall, Winker, Schebler, BHam, Riggleman has morphed Winker into the designated double switch guy. It’s unfortunate because Winker doesn’t get that opportunity late in the game to come to bat with two runners on. Not sure why Riggleman has decided to limit Winker’s plate appearances. It’s not coincidental that the Reds are a last place team and Riggleman is the Mgr of that last place team.

 

 

Actually, CIN has been one of the better teams in the NL since they replaced Pryce with Riggleman....maybe what he's doing is actually working. 

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On 7/9/2018 at 11:45 AM, einstein2u said:

Clevinger bauer Carrasco.  3 tough guys to start. Not sure I am buying this week.  

 

i like my crow well done.  sorry i doubted you Mr. Winker.

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30 minutes ago, einstein2u said:

 

i like my crow well done.  sorry i doubted you Mr. Winker.

Yeah, that shot he hit tonight got out in a hurry. My Reds need to find the man some more playing time, cut bait on either Hamilton or Duvall. 

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Most own in leagues that count obp?? 

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41 minutes ago, chud12 said:

Most own in leagues that count obp?? 

that he is.

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4 hours ago, chud12 said:

Most own in leagues that count obp?? 

If the recent power outburst if real, he's an absolute must own. 30 homers with a great obp is amazing. If the power if a fluke, he's not a must own outside of deeper obp leagues. A great obp but limited power and no steals is too one note to be a must own.

 

 

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What type of power numbers are within reason for him. I know he is still young, but can he really hit more than 15 HRs?

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Own percentage on ESPN is under 20 percent.  Surprised Winker still hasn't been discovered by the masses yet.

 

Should put up strong OBP's for the long run due to the excellent eye at the plate.  And he's hitting after Votto and Suarez, so plenty of RBI opportunities should present themselves.  Not much in terms of power or speed.  But certainly a very good third outfielder in a four outfielder league.

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This kid is gaining confidence as the at bats pile up. Here’s hoping that Riggleman won’t double switch this guy. The power will come. Maybe not this year.... 

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3/3 tonight with 1 BB and 3 RBI. He could end this season around .290/.400 with 15 HR, 80 RBI, 70 R. Obviously not a huge line in standard 5x5, but for deeper leagues/ OBP leagues that's a solid contribution. In a keeper I'd be all over this on the cheap. 

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I don't buy into the power at all. He'll be nice in AVG/OBP but no speed with bleh counting stats. Not saying he won't be useful in some cases but I don't think he's a 30 HR guy.

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9 hours ago, Ecofolux said:

I don't buy into the power at all. He'll be nice in AVG/OBP but no speed with bleh counting stats. Not saying he won't be useful in some cases but I don't think he's a 30 HR guy.

 

Why not?

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30HR is probably optimistic, but .290/20/160 RBI+runs is useful and he may chip in a steal here and there. 

 

Hes the 13th best player, 8th hitter, over the last three weeks in my NL league. 

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12 hours ago, Magnus88 said:

Should put up strong OBP's for the long run due to the excellent eye at the plate.  And he's hitting after Votto and Suarez, so plenty of RBI opportunities should present themselves.  Not much in terms of power or speed.  But certainly a very good third outfielder in a four outfielder league.

 

I feel like this is an identical "scouting report" that we gave Brandon Nimmo. He never showed much power or speed but with his solid approach at the plate, guys like these can become VERY valuable to fantasy teams. I don't think Winker has as much speed as Nimmo but he's probably got a better Batting Avg & hits in a much better spot for RBI's. In my OPS league these guys are gold but both could develop into solid 5×5 options.

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2 hours ago, metropolitans said:

I feel like this is an identical "scouting report" that we gave Brandon Nimmo. He never showed much power or speed but with his solid approach at the plate, guys like these can become VERY valuable to fantasy teams. I don't think Winker has as much speed as Nimmo but he's probably got a better Batting Avg & hits in a much better spot for RBI's. In my OPS league these guys are gold but both could develop into solid 5×5 options.

Nimmo and Winker do have a fair amount in common in terms of being young lefty hitters with excellent eyes at the plate.  For the short term I prefer Winker though, due to the fact he plays in the clearly superior lineup.  That lineup will likely continue to present him with far more RBI and run opportunities. 

 

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11 hours ago, tuesdays said:

Why not?

Because the scouting report on him says he has limited power. Also looking at his minor league #s, he has spurts of power but more times than not he's like a .430ish SLG hitter. He COULD potentially develop more power I suppose but it's not like he was suppose to bloom into a 30 HR guy.

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7 hours ago, Ecofolux said:

Because the scouting report on him says he has limited power. Also looking at his minor league #s, he has spurts of power but more times than not he's like a .430ish SLG hitter. He COULD potentially develop more power I suppose but it's not like he was suppose to bloom into a 30 HR guy.

Forget what your scouting reports say. Players make adjustments that unlock power such as Max Muncy and Brandon Nimmo to name a few. His batted ball profile and exit velocities point to 30 homer production. 

On a side note, Scott Schebler injured his shoulder yesterday which means full time playing time for Mr.Winker. 

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On 7/14/2018 at 2:34 AM, Ecofolux said:

Not saying he won't be useful in some cases but I don't think he's a 30 HR guy.

 

I think that's too high of a bar to set for success. Could he potential run into 30 for a season? Sure, but I think consistently hitting 20 would make him absolute gold in certain leagues. 

 

Winker has 56 homers in his MiLB career (2,438 plate appearances, hr every 2.29%).

 

In his MLB career, he has 14 HR in 383 PA (3.66%). At that percentage over let's say 650 PA, it's about 23 HR.

 

So 30 isn't impossible with more power as he ages, but I still think 20ish should be the benchmark for his prime years. 

Edited by LoGo
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