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Jesse Winker 2018 Outlook

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You guys are making me really think on Winker. I always thought his power wasn't there. Our the projections some of the posters putting on here to optimistic?

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9 hours ago, Fielder1831 said:

You guys are making me really think on Winker. I always thought his power wasn't there. Our the projections some of the posters putting on here to optimistic?

 

I don't think anyone here is projecting his power specifically. I do think Winker has less power than most non-Speed options. But he has a potential .300 hit tool with a plus walk rate. Winker may only hits 15-20, but if it comes with a .280-.300 BA and a .370-.400 OBP, he'll at least be a really solid real life player. With the power explosion, if it maintains, it also makes 20 more likely. 

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9 hours ago, Fielder1831 said:

You guys are making me really think on Winker. I always thought his power wasn't there. Our the projections some of the posters putting on here to optimistic?

 

I think the prediction that Winker takes over the leadoff or 2 hole is very possible. Depending on how soon it happens, that could get him anywhere from 400-550 ABs this year. Obviously, the more at-bats he gets the higher counting stats will be, but he looks like he should hit about .280-.300. 

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On 3/17/2018 at 8:23 PM, Flyman75 said:

I come to believe that Schebler is going to end up being the odd-man-out. He had a nice first half in 2017, but his second half was pretty bad. I wasn't a huge believer, even when he was hitting all those HRs in April-May. He hit 16 in those two months and then 14 over the final 4 months. I think he's going to eventually be the one to lose ABs to the other three. 

Schebler played through injury last year ... might be part of the dropoff.

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I think it might be Hamilton who loses the AB's can't hit, can play defense but  so can Winker, the Reds aren't going to outpitch teams they will need to win with their bats, Hamilton doesn't help you there

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So he is like a post 2005 Todd Helton...hitting wise? . Helton in 2006 went .300/.400/.475 with 15 HR and 3 SB. 

 

I would take that this year of he hits at the top of the lineup. 

 

I dont know why I randomly thought of Helton, but there it is.

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In some ways, Winker reminds me of an early career Joey Votto.  A lot of scouts questioned whether Votto was going to hit for enough power to play 1B in the bigs, but he was such a talented hitter that it almost didn't matter.  Guys with hit tools this sound, and approaches this sound, tend to find a way to get to their power.  That doesn't guarantee that Winker will do that, but we did see him do it down the stretch last year.

 

I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see 20+ HR this year in that park.  Also wouldn't be surprised to see him continue to refine his swing and approach to continue to hit for more power.  We're seeing guys who had middling ability in the minors go through swing changes to increase their launch angle and hit for more power.  Someone like Winker, who's got tremendous natural hand-eye coordination and ability to make solid contact, and already combines that with a great approach, doesn't need much to start hitting for power too -- especially in that park.

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After being high (because of you guys) on him for the past several days and putting him in my draft excel file--I think he's dropping way down the list for me.

 

Uncertain PT issues and there are others I can use in my 3rd OF spot (keepers are Stanton and Bellinger) that have fewer question marks....guys like Eaton, Brinson, etc. 

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I can't believe they Reds are still sticking with Billy "can't steal first" Hamilton in the leadoff spot.  

 

If you're going to play him for defense fine, but he should hit 8th if he continues to post a pathetic sub .300 OBP.  

 

WInker could probably use to improve his defense a bit.

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8 hours ago, mowntineer said:

After being high (because of you guys) on him for the past several days and putting him in my draft excel file--I think he's dropping way down the list for me.

 

Uncertain PT issues and there are others I can use in my 3rd OF spot (keepers are Stanton and Bellinger) that have fewer question marks....guys like Eaton, Brinson, etc. 

 

Again I think you have to look at the hype surrounding Winker in context.  I'm in a 12-team league that has 27 roster spots, including 5 OF starting slot and 1 UT, and Winker is still a FA.  His ADP is still like 375.  He's not a guy that should be starting on opening day for your fantasy team in a 3-OF league, he's a high upside bench bat that you might want to get the jump on over your league mates.

 

And you can't really compare him to someone like Adam Eaton with an ADP of 150 and a long track record and guaranteed playing time.  Apples to oranges.  

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He's a great guy to pair with a low avg/OBP masher like Gallo or Olsen. 

 

These prospects with great contact skills and a good eye usually find their way to full time at bats sooner than later. He should be batting in the 1 or 2 spot pretty soon

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I actually think he’s the safest guy for playing time in that OF. There’s no reason not to give Winker everyday ABs. 

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I ❤️ the love this lineup is getting in the mentions. I also like to search twitter and see the Hamilton owners who hate it.

 

 

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I love that too but once the games count who sits?  I’m seeing sites project Duvall sits but I’d sit Hamilton before the others.  Under no combination would I sit Winker though.

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1 minute ago, Chubbles said:

I love that too but once the games count who sits?  I’m seeing sites project Duvall sits but I’d sit Hamilton before the others.  Under no combination would I sit Winker though.

 

They are all going to sit until Manager Price has more in-season data on who's hot, per Fay the beat writer. That's all I can go on, since lineups are built purely on managerial discretion.

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Leading off today!!! If he holds that spot he's going to outperform his price tag by a mile. I might be more excited about Winker than any other player I have. 

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I don't really have room for him, but had to make room with him leading off. Big time potential here if he sticks. 

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I like him more than the other 3 reds outfielders, schebler would be 2nd... Strictly from a hitting perspective. Whichever of the four struggles, will be easy for the Reds to sit.  Doesn't look good for Duval at the moment though.

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Was thinking his 2 hits from yesterday would'e gotten him the start today. Guess not.

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Just now, TTRA1N said:

Was thinking his 2 hits from yesterday would'e gotten him the start today. Guess not.

 

It’s early - lots of managers like to play everyone early in the season before settling into a regular lineup. 

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57 minutes ago, TTRA1N said:

Was thinking his 2 hits from yesterday would'e gotten him the start today. Guess not.

Will you quit thinking with common sense and more like a baseball manager !

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