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Alex Collins 2018 Outlook

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There's absolutely zero reason any other Baltimore back should be given a crack at the starting job after Collins gave the whole offense a shot in the arm.  If it ain't broke, don't fix it.  Yet Harbaugh was noncommittal when asked about his backs for next year.  Can Collins hold onto his bellcow job?

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The draft is very deep at RB.  It feels like Collins should be the lead back but its not out of the question to think Baltimore could grab a rookie in the late rounds to compete.

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I think Dixon is the key here, assuming no major FA or rookie RB's are thrown into the mix.   Collins clearly has a leg up on Allen, and Woodhead seems redundant at this point to what Allen can do, at a much higher price.   Releasing Woodhead saves them 1.8 million in cap, so that's a strong possibility.      Collins eventually got targets and could do a little with them, so there's no real logic to keeping Woodhead around IMO.

 

As for Dixon, he's still a mystery.    He could easily be in the doghouse because of the suspension, but he also had some hype last year.   Perhaps they have him ticketed to contribute.    It'd be silly for Dixon to get even an equal share with Collins to start, but if he shows up, behaves, and stays healthy, i think he looms just enough to scare me into not drafting Collins.   Definitely one to keep an eye on in training camp.  

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Very interesting player.

 

He fixed his fumbling problem this season which was huge.

 

Im not familiar with the contracts of the RBs on the roster but Buck Allen, Woodhead, terrance west, kenneth dixon, alex collins.

 

Collins was really good the 2nd half of the season. I think BAL should cut ties with West, Woodhead, and Allen. Id keep Kenneth Dixon and draft 1 more RB for depth.

 

It will be interesting to see how BAL plays it out and how they view collins going forward.

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Allen is signed for dirt cheap- no reason to ditch him.  Dixon as well, both were late round picks still on rookie contracts.   Collins is an ERFA which means he has zero leverage.  Short of something odd happening, he'll be tendered and will cost something like 1.5 to 2 mil, and he can't solicit offer sheets or anything.     

 

Allen, Dixon, and Collins together are going to cost less than 4 million in cap.  Woodhead alone is 3.3 million with a dead cap hit of 1.5 million if released.   Perhaps they take him to camp in case they decide Dixon can't be trusted, but Woodhead didn't exactly light it up when active, and had his seemingly annual major injury right out of the gate last year.    Terrence West is a UFA- I'd assume he's gone.

 

Pass game weapons would theoretically be higher priorities than RB in the draft and free agency.  Mike Wallace and Ben Watson are UFA's.   Maclin is a $7.5 mil cap charge, they'll save $5 mil with his release.     

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21 hours ago, fakespike said:

No posts since January?  Collins is a sleeper I guess. Not sure what he’s being bought at currently, but it’s probably a bargain. 

 

Collins getting some nice praise from Harbaugh:

https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/football/news/ravens-kenneth-dixon-mentioned-by-harbaugh/

 

in ppr he is a td dependent flex at best. Dixon coming back completely muddles this backfield avoid, avoid, avoid.

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On 3/30/2018 at 10:05 PM, fakespike said:

No posts since January?  Collins is a sleeper I guess. Not sure what he’s being bought at currently, but it’s probably a bargain. 

 

Collins getting some nice praise from Harbaugh:

https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/football/news/ravens-kenneth-dixon-mentioned-by-harbaugh/

 

Dixon is a Collins fumble (or maybe 2) away from running away (no pun intended) with the starting gig.  I am actually targeting Dixon as a late round flier for that reason.

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 Not sure how you could watch Collins' 2017 performance and throw any shade his way.  He earned and won the starting job.   

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5 hours ago, fakespike said:

 

 

 

 Not sure how you could watch Collins' 2017 performance and throw any shade his way.  He earned and won the starting job.   

 

His ball security history is one of the worst of all time.  Yes, he managed not to sink himself last season, but history tells us that many a RB has tried, but failed, to correct fatal ball security issues during their usually short careers.  Collins helped me to a title in one league, but I was prepared to see him benched every weekend I turned to him (I had no choice but to start him).

 

If Collins puts the ball on the ground a few times early, you can bet the CS's confidence will wane big time, and they will turn to Dixon, especially if Dixon shines in PS.  I love Collins' heart and motor, but he is the most vulnerable player in the league IMO.  If you do the research on his fumble woes, you'll be concerned too.

Edited by Rolling Thunder

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12 minutes ago, Rolling Thunder said:

 

His ball security history is one of the worst of all time.  Yes, he managed not to sink himself last season, but history tells us that many a RB has tried, but failed, to correct fatal ball security issues during their usually short careers.  Collins helped me to a title in one league, but I was prepared to see him benched every weekend I turned to him (I had no choice but to start him).

 

If Collins puts the ball on the ground a few times early, you can bet the CS's confidence will wane big time, and they will turn to Dixon, especially if Dixon shines in PS.  I love Collins' heart and motor, but he is the most vulnerable player in the league IMO.  If you do the research on his fumble woes, you'll be concerned too.

I don’t think we’ll know until the last minute. If they draft another RB it’s going to be a real mess...

 

Woodhead is a FA and they didn’t show much interest in bring anyone else in, which is curious given the talent available.

 

I’d rather the Ravens draft better receivers, than another RB.  Maybe they think Collins is their guy....

 

Collins had 2 fumbles, but there were a lot of other RBs that had the same.  Still it’s something he needs to improve on.

 

My concern is the last 3 games Collins kind of ran out of gas.  I’d describe the situation as a “wide open competition” but it might turn into a RBBC.  

 

Collins needs to work on his passing game as well, at the moment he’s a 2 down back.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Here is a good piece on Collins' ball security issues:

 

https://www.fieldgulls.com/2017/12/24/16815976/seattle-seahawks-alex-collins-released-fumbles-pete-carroll-baltimore-ravens

 

17 fumbles in an abbreviated college career is no joke.  And at least one NFL team has tried to work with him to solve the problem and given up.

 

Not saying he won't succeed.  I'm pulling for him.  But nothing spoils my weekend faster than seeing my starter yanked from a game early because the CS suddenly doesn't trust him, or wants to send a message.  Because of his history, Collins won't be given the slack that most other RBs could be expected to get.  Fair or unfair, for the foreseeable future, Collins is probably operating in a zero tolerance environment.  That makes him a tough own for me.

Edited by Rolling Thunder

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12 minutes ago, Rolling Thunder said:

Here is a good piece on Collins' ball security issues:

 

https://www.fieldgulls.com/2017/12/24/16815976/seattle-seahawks-alex-collins-released-fumbles-pete-carroll-baltimore-ravens

 

17 fumbles in an abbreviated college career is no joke.  And at least one NFL team has tried to work with him to solve the problem and given up.

 

Not saying he won't succeed.  I'm pulling for him.  But nothing spoils my weekend faster than seeing my starter yanked from a game early because the CS suddenly doesn't trust him, or wants to send a message.  Because of his history, Collins won't be given the slack that most other RBs could be expected to get.  Fair or unfair, for the foreseeable future, Collins is probably operating in a zero tolerance environment.  That makes him a tough own for me.

Collins is high risk, but he’s impressed as a pure runner.  

 

Unfortunately, in his current draft ranking I’ll taking Dion Lewis for his better passing chops (PPR).  If I don’t go running back, I grab Juju who was one of the most impressive WRs I’ve seen as a rookie.

 

Collins needs to impress in the preseason and coaches comments to justify his risk.

 

The current ADP (PPR) favors RBs overwhelming over WRs (in the top24) but if some goes “no RB” Collins might be their guy.   There’s also a similar situation in Green Bay, and New England, where there isn’t a clear lead back.  

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While nobody likes a fumble history, Collins last fumble lost was on Oct 1st, with almost 200 carries since. A lot of successful RBs had fumble issues early in their careers, including one who looked and played a lot like Collins:  Beastmode. 

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7 minutes ago, fakespike said:

While nobody likes a fumble history, Collins last fumble lost was on Oct 1st, with almost 200 carries since. A lot of successful RBs had fumble issues early in their careers, including one who looked and played a lot like Collins:  Beastmode. 

No “Beastmode” look at his last 3 games.  Lynch showed up for every game regardless of the opponent.

 

Collins is trending up, but he’s not a complete back... yet.

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3 hours ago, seanismorris said:

No “Beastmode” look at his last 3 games.  Lynch showed up for every game regardless of the opponent.

 

Collins is trending up, but he’s not a complete back... yet.

 

Collins is not Beastmode. But its kinda ridiculous to contend that Beastmode never had games in which he got shut down.  In his second year he had games in which he went 9-16-0, 14-46-0, 13-31-0, 11-34-0.  Even in Beastmode's best season, 2012, he had games going 15-41-0 and 19-46-0, and put the ball on the turf 5 times, losing 2.  

 

The games you speak of, Collins went 12-19-0, 18-51-0, and 20-78-1.  He did have 10 catches over that stretch.  Also, the game right before these he obliterated the pittsburgh D in primetime with 166 yards on 20 touches with a TD. 

 

 

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What's the draft cost to get Collins and Dixon both?  Probably fairly slim, and you can likely lock in a starter here.  

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On 4/2/2018 at 6:27 AM, BrianM said:

What's the draft cost to get Collins and Dixon both?  Probably fairly slim, and you can likely lock in a starter here.  

I like the idea of drafting both. I still think Dixon is the better player, but Collins will definitely start the season as the first and second down back

Edited by the_dying_dream

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On 4/2/2018 at 12:42 AM, fakespike said:

 

Collins is not Beastmode. But its kinda ridiculous to contend that Beastmode never had games in which he got shut down.  In his second year he had games in which he went 9-16-0, 14-46-0, 13-31-0, 11-34-0.  Even in Beastmode's best season, 2012, he had games going 15-41-0 and 19-46-0, and put the ball on the turf 5 times, losing 2.  

 

The games you speak of, Collins went 12-19-0, 18-51-0, and 20-78-1.  He did have 10 catches over that stretch.  Also, the game right before these he obliterated the pittsburgh D in primetime with 166 yards on 20 touches with a TD. 

 

 

 

Drafting Alex Collins will be no different than drafting Jordan Howard. Very good value. Pair him with Dixon late because Dixon might have standalone ppr value like he did in 2016 splitting some time with TWest. 

 

 

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Collins is a definite post draft winner.  No RB competition added while blocking help drafted with the 2 TE, Orlando Brown and some late rd O-line flyers.

 

His arrow is firmly pointing up for 2018.

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4 hours ago, boltup15 said:

 

Drafting Alex Collins will be no different than drafting Jordan Howard. Very good value. Pair him with Dixon late because Dixon might have standalone ppr value like he did in 2016 splitting some time with TWest. 

 

 

Howard is better than Collins.  Even though Baltimore didn’t draft anyone, the situation still resembles an RBBC.  Collins might win the job, but he’s not going to have Howard’s volume.  Howard also has a better offense, that should open running lanes.

 

Howard is a RB2

Collins is a RB3

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11 minutes ago, seanismorris said:

Howard is better than Collins.  Even though Baltimore didn’t draft anyone, the situation still resembles an RBBC.  Collins might win the job, but he’s not going to have Howard’s volume.  Howard also has a better offense, that should open running lanes.

 

Howard is a RB2

Collins is a RB3

 

Why is Howard better than Collins? Why can’t Collins have the same volume as Howard?

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16 minutes ago, boltup15 said:

 

Why is Howard better than Collins? Why can’t Collins have the same volume as Howard?

Anything is possible, but Howard is a known commodity.  Collins has 2 guys waiting to poach carries.  

 

Per PFF

While Dixon was sidelined. Alex Collins became the Ravens’ primary running back, finishing with a 212/973/6 stat line. However, head coach John Harbaugh has remained non-committal early this offseason on Collins being his lead back this season.

It’s not even certain that Dixon will keep his roster spot at this point. He has much to prove, but he did show flashes a rookie. In the final six weeks of 2016 Dixon was the RB13 in fantasy with 281 yards and a pair of touchdowns on 61 attempts to go along with 20 catches for 114 yards and a TD on 27 targets. He’s still only 24 years old, and if he comes to camp motivated Dixon could still make an impact in Baltimore.

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26 minutes ago, seanismorris said:

Anything is possible, but Howard is a known commodity.  Collins has 2 guys waiting to poach carries.  

 

Per PFF

While Dixon was sidelined. Alex Collins became the Ravens’ primary running back, finishing with a 212/973/6 stat line. However, head coach John Harbaugh has remained non-committal early this offseason on Collins being his lead back this season.

It’s not even certain that Dixon will keep his roster spot at this point. He has much to prove, but he did show flashes a rookie. In the final six weeks of 2016 Dixon was the RB13 in fantasy with 281 yards and a pair of touchdowns on 61 attempts to go along with 20 catches for 114 yards and a TD on 27 targets. He’s still only 24 years old, and if he comes to camp motivated Dixon could still make an impact in Baltimore.

 

PFF also had Collins as their #2 rated back for last season. Dixon is the only guy that could poach Collins, Buck Allen definitely not. 

Edited by boltup15
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