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Alex Collins 2018 Outlook

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3 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

How did he "salvage" his night exactly? He got a few targets in the first half that he made excellent plays on. He made guys miss. He was an inch away from having a TD. 

 

I'm not going to gripe about people being concerned. I jsut think it's silly. If Collins is going to be pushed into a terrible, down by 20+ situation and STILL get 10+ in 1/2 point, then he's the definition of a RB2+. That's what  a good starting RB does: have a good floor and a good ceiling. Collins hasn't been in great situations to play to his skills yet, and he's scored fine for your teams in both games. And he's looked phenomenal on some of the tape and in some of the plays. He's still only got 20 touches on the season because of these game flows. 

 

We've seen just the floor. That's why it shouldn't concern anyone. 

His ceiling doesn't look high with buck and the coaches hanging around that's my point. I get it a lot of people want to be optimistic about a guy who required high-mid draft capital being outscored by his backup back to back. That's fine. My concern is his usage. We can fall back on game script but I think regardless of game script the Ravens for some reason will split snaps with buck Allen and Collins. That's not what people drafted Collins for. If Collins got the majority share then his ceiling goes but but for some reason the coaches won't allow it. Wouldn't be the first time a coach limited his best player. It's still early but that's not a good sign and people who drafted Collins in the 2nd-3rd round have a right to be worried 

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Abandon ship!  Droppable in short-bench leagues.  Otherwise relegate him to the end of your bench.  He'll only be startable if both Dixon and Allen are injured.

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1 minute ago, Washington2014 said:

The problem is he is not the preferred passing down back or preferred goal line back. I still think he's a strong RB2/3 his upside just isn't as high because of Harbaugh's love for Allen.

Allen does do one thing better than Collins, and its part the reason he's getting touches. Pass blocking.

 

In the first half Collins was more of an impact in the passing game then buck. Both had 1 GL carry. Allen got his touches in the 2nd half. He's going to keep getting the touches when are playing catch up later in the game. Protecting Flacco is his value to the team. So he's there for dump offs and token carries in those situations.

 

It really depends on how bad this Ravens D is to how this plays out volume wise.

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I think people are sort of missing the point or buck vs collins, it's not who is the more 'talented' rb or is better better, rather it's one guy was free off the waiver and the other was a 3-4rd draft pick but in 2 games the waiver add has equal or more fantasy points;which you can't ignore and the drafted guy has not met expectations.

 

My takeaway s that buck is very much involved in the game plan and is currently a flex option and collins who was touted as an emerging rb1 in the expert blogs is more like a low end rb2/flex in ppr with big play potential.

 

What I find more puzzling is this gimmick style usage of lamar jackson in the redzone where he is getting running plays that should be for the rb's.

My view was always collins-buck-dixon were going to be a rbbc but now with Dixon out you have more predicatable utilization going forward between buck and collins. 

I think the overarching question is will the Ravens continue to have negative game scripts as the norm or the exception.

I have said this before stop looking at last seasons performance and stats when it comes to the Ravens and really look at what is happening this season

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2 minutes ago, Slatykamora said:

Allen does do one thing better than Collins, and its part the reason he's getting touches. Pass blocking.

 

In the first half Collins was more of an impact in the passing game then buck. Both had 1 GL carry. Allen got his touches in the 2nd half. He's going to keep getting the touches when are playing catch up later in the game. Protecting Flacco is his value to the team. So he's there for dump offs and token carries in those situations.

 

It really depends on how bad this Ravens D is to how this plays out volume wise.

 

 

That's usually all it takes to stay on the field in the real NFL specifically when you have an immobile QB

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3 minutes ago, dashoe said:

I think people are sort of missing the point or buck vs collins, it's not who is the more 'talented' rb or is better better, rather it's one guy was free off the waiver and the other was a 3-4rd draft pick but in 2 games the waiver add has equal or more fantasy points;which you can't ignore and the drafted guy has not met expectations.

 

My takeaway s that buck is very much involved in the game plan and is currently a flex option and collins who was touted as an emerging rb1 in the expert blogs is more like a low end rb2/flex in ppr with big play potential.

 

What I find more puzzling is this gimmick style usage of lamar jackson in the redzone where he is getting running plays that should be for the rb's.

My view was always collins-buck-dixon were going to be a rbbc but now with Dixon out you have more predicatable utilization going forward between buck and collins. 

I think the overarching question is will the Ravens continue to have negative game scripts as the norm or the exception.

 

This. Hard to convince owners who are relying on him otherwise. Somehow this is a good thing that he's getting outscored by the "lesser player" lol

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2 minutes ago, dashoe said:

I think the overarching question is will the Ravens continue to have negative game scripts as the norm or the exception.

 

If you have both of the RB's, this is what you're going to ask yourself every week.  In a closer contest, obviously Collins is the better play.  Chasing from behind?  Allen in PPR i'd assume.  Regardless, this is going to be a complete headache all year.

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4 minutes ago, Guwop said:

His ceiling doesn't look high with buck and the coaches hanging around that's my point. 

So in a terrible game where nothing went his way and he only got 12 touches, and 90 yards, his ceiling doesn't look high? 

 

What do you think his stat line will be in a 7 point win if he gets 19 Carries and 3 Receptions? He's had a nice chance at a TD every week. I believe he still may lead all RBs in TDs since Week 11 of last year. 

 

Idk, when I see a guy running like a freight train and making people miss in space, I kinda think he has a ceiling. 

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It’s hard to get a read on Collins because of the game flow of Baltimore’s first two games. First one was a blowout, and then they fell behind early. I want to see what his touches look like in a close game.

 

On a good note, he looked great catching passes.

 

But on a bad note, Buck looked great all around and converted his TD. Most importantly we need the defense to play better to keep collins in the game. Mosely getting injured really hurt their defense. 

 

Im not abandoning ship yet, I want to see them in competitive games. But I don’t like that Buck got a goal line carry. I’m fine taking away passing downs, but Collins needs the TDs. Let’s check back after they play the Broncos next week.

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2 minutes ago, taobball said:

So in a terrible game where nothing went his way and he only got 12 touches, and 90 yards, his ceiling doesn't look high? 

 

What do you think his stat line will be in a 7 point win if he gets 19 Carries and 3 Receptions? He's had a nice chance at a TD every week. I believe he still may lead all RBs in TDs since Week 11 of last year. 

 

Idk, when I see a guy running like a freight train and making people miss in space, I kinda think he has a ceiling. 

Hes been impressive like this for weeks now and is stuck in a stupid time share. Doesnt matter if he has all the talent in the world, with his limited role, he needs perfect gamescripts to post good scores each week

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2 minutes ago, taobball said:

So in a terrible game where nothing went his way and he only got 12 touches, and 90 yards, his ceiling doesn't look high? 

 

What do you think his stat line will be in a 7 point win if he gets 19 Carries and 3 Receptions? He's had a nice chance at a TD every week. I believe he still may lead all RBs in TDs since Week 11 of last year. 

 

Idk, when I see a guy running like a freight train and making people miss in space, I kinda think he has a ceiling. 

 

If he converted that rush on the 1 yard line into a touchdown, people wouldn't be complaining.  If he got that GL touch that Allen did, and converted that one as well, everyone would be yelling 'LEAGUE WINNER!'  2 missed plays that could have easily gone the other way and made us all happy.  There will be better luck, and weeks ahead.

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4 minutes ago, Guwop said:

 

This. Hard to convince owners who are relying on him otherwise. Somehow this is a good thing that he's getting outscored by the "lesser player" lol

 

No...Its a good thing that he was able to put up 90 yards on only 12 touches.  It's a good thing that the lesser player averaged 1.3 yards per carry.  Its called context, not just looking at the final scores each player put up and forming an opinion based on that. 

 

Its not really that big of a surprise that Allen, who has always been the favored 3rd down back got more targets in a game where the Ravens were down big early, and Flacco threw the ball 55 times.

 

The coaches don't want Flacco throwing that much, and Collins is the more talented runner, and will get more carries when that is what the game script calls for.  

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4 minutes ago, taobball said:

So in a terrible game where nothing went his way and he only got 12 touches, and 90 yards, his ceiling doesn't look high? 

 

What do you think his stat line will be in a 7 point win if he gets 19 Carries and 3 Receptions? He's had a nice chance at a TD every week. I believe he still may lead all RBs in TDs since Week 11 of last year. 

 

Idk, when I see a guy running like a freight train and making people miss in space, I kinda think he has a ceiling. 

 

And the coaches believe that ceiling is low which is why Buck keeps showing up and lowering Collins ceiling. Was last week's game a negative script? Collins should be used more imo regardless but the coaching seems stuck on making it a committee. Bad game script this week and a good floor? That's good but folks didn't draft him for that. That's where the negative reactions come from. We aren't fully disagreeing here. I think he should have had a better two weeks but the coaches won't let him. He was good in the passing game and then they stopped trying get him involved. 

 

And what happened last year isn't helping him right now 

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Allen wasn’t anything special and he still managed to poach a TD.

 

Collins is going to frustrating to own.

 

Allen is only going to be worth owning when Collins fumbles.  I’d rather stash A. Jones than Allen next week.

 

Collins is a buy low candidate, but the coach seems determined to cap his upside. Collins catches are encouraging...

 

I’d rather have Freeman over Collins at the moment, but the situation is fluid.  Collins appears to have more upside, all he has to do is not fumble and gain the coach’s trust.

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2 minutes ago, Guwop said:

 

And the coaches believe that ceiling is low which is why Buck keeps showing up and lowering Collins ceiling. Was last week's game a negative script? Collins should be used more imo regardless but the coaching seems stuck on making it a committee. Bad game script this week and a good floor? That's good but folks didn't draft him for that. That's where the negative reactions come from. We aren't fully disagreeing here. I think he should have had a better two weeks but the coaches won't let him. He was good in the passing game and then they stopped trying get him involved. 

 

And what happened last year isn't helping him right now 

 

It's a long season that started only 10 days ago..do you expect him to put up 100 yards and a TD every game?  I bet most projections for Collins only had him scoring 7-8 TDs (as is probably the normal expectations for RBs drafted in rounds 4-5).  There is nothing wrong with "good floor" games, and they are going to come in lumps throughout the season.  People are just overreacting because it happened the first two weeks.  If these two games were strung together in weeks 5 and 6 with some "high ceiling" games sprinkled in before that then people wouldn't be paying any attention to it.

 

 

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4 minutes ago, Hero202 said:

 

No...Its a good thing that he was able to put up 90 yards on only 12 touches.  It's a good thing that the lesser player averaged 1.3 yards per carry.  Its called context, not just looking at the final scores each player put up and forming an opinion based on that. 

 

Its not really that big of a surprise that Allen, who has always been the favored 3rd down back got more targets in a game where the Ravens were down big early, and Flacco threw the ball 55 times.

 

The coaches don't want Flacco throwing that much, and Collins is the more talented runner, and will get more carries when that is what the game script calls for.  

 

 

They say that all the time and boom he was throwing since the first series; they never even tried to establish the run game and this was before the score got out of hand and they had to claw their way back in. 

 

Flacco THROWS the ball, he never sees a read where he doesnt think he can throw.  if Hayden was healthy he would probably see 12 targets and not Buck :lol:

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11 minutes ago, dashoe said:

 

 

That's usually all it takes to stay on the field in the real NFL specifically when you have an immobile QB

Of course. Usage is going to come down too how bad the defense is and how much flacco is being asked to throw.

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8 minutes ago, Hero202 said:

 

It's a long season that started only 10 days ago..do you expect him to put up 100 yards and a TD every game?  I bet most projections for Collins only had him scoring 7-8 TDs (as is probably the normal expectations for RBs drafted in rounds 4-5).  There is nothing wrong with "good floor" games, and they are going to come in lumps throughout the season.  People are just overreacting because it happened the first two weeks.  If these two games were strung together in weeks 5 and 6 with some "high ceiling" games sprinkled in before that then people wouldn't be paying any attention to it.

 

 

 

You think nothing is wrong with Collins play at his draft position cool. Everyone is completely wrong to be upset about the coaches not using the more talented player. Got it

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4 minutes ago, dashoe said:

 

 

They say that all the time and boom he was throwing since the first series; they never even tried to establish the run game and this was before the score got out of hand and they had to claw their way back in. 

 

Flacco THROWS the ball, he never sees a read where he doesnt think he can throw.  if Hayden was healthy he would probably see 12 targets and not Buck :lol:

 

Yeah, he has always thrown the ball more than his talent level would call for.  But not 55 times..

 

Before the Ravens were down 21-0 after only 7ish minutes of game play Allen has 0 carries. 

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Kind of agree with Tao on this one.  Everyone was jonesing for more touches after week 1 and he got screwed again in a weird game.   And got 90 yards anyway.  This may be one of the easiest buy opportunities for a lead back all year.

 

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As a Collins owner from last year, I can say that Collins definitely has the talent to run and catch passes. Like someone said previously on this page, Buck Allen may be a better pass blocker. 

 

One thing I will say though is that Collins doesn't get the volume or the opportunities that he seems to deserve, game in and game out. After having him last year, I made the decision to pass on him in the 4th (4.06) and took Ingram instead. I got tired of watching Collins get vultured after doing all the heavy lifting on a scoring drive. I got tired of seeing him underutilized. I got tired of less talented and less effective backs stealing his volume.

 

I watched the game today and saw Collins catch a short pass from Flacco and made a nice move to create a hole for himself between two would-be tacklers and gain an additional ten yards. I also noticed Collins had 90 yards at one point in the 3rd quarter and I complained to my buddy that after having him last year, he typically would end the game with those stats (80ish yards, maybe a TD, but probably not) and probably get vultured in the same game. Unfortunately, both of those things actually happened tonight. I hope things are different for Collins owners this season, but after witnessing it myself all last year, I couldn't pull the trigger on him again. It's confusing as a fan watching the games on TV, maybe the coaches know something we dont. To me if you gave the guy 20 carries and a few dump offs he'd be rock solid in any close-ish game. Unfortunately they just dont let him get the opportunities that he looks like deserves. That's why I couldnt do it again.

 

I HATE when people make negative posts, and I'm not trying to be tat guy. I'm legitimately trying to share my experience as an owner last year who honestly was so hopeful and ended up extremely frustrated. Best of luck to all you owners, he's one of the guys I dont own that I am legitimately rooting for. I don't think talent is the concern here.

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1 minute ago, cbsholy said:

As a Collins owner from last year, I can say that Collins definitely has the talent to run and catch passes. Like someone said previously on this page, Buck Allen may be a better pass blocker. 

 

One thing I will say though is that Collins doesn't get the volume or the opportunities that he seems to deserve, game in and game out. After having him last year, I made the decision to pass on him in the 4th (4.06) and took Ingram instead. I got tired of watching Collins get vultured after doing all the heavy lifting on a scoring drive. I got tired of seeing him underutilized. I got tired of less talented and less effective backs stealing his volume.

 

I watched the game today and saw Collins catch a short pass from Flacco and made a nice move to create a hole for himself between two would-be tacklers and gain an additional ten yards. I also noticed Collins had 90 yards at one point in the 3rd quarter and I complained to my buddy that after having him last year, he typically would end the game with those stats (80ish yards, maybe a TD, but probably not) and probably get vultured in the same game. Unfortunately, both of those things actually happened tonight. I hope things are different for Collins owners this season, but after witnessing it myself all last year, I couldn't pull the trigger on him again. It's confusing as a fan watching the games on TV, maybe the coaches know something we dont. To me if you gave the guy 20 carries and a few dump offs he'd be rock solid in any close-ish game. Unfortunately they just dont let him get the opportunities that he looks like deserves. That's why I couldnt do it again.

 

I HATE when people make negative posts, and I'm not trying to be tat guy. I'm legitimately trying to share my experience as an owner last year who honestly was so hopeful and ended up extremely frustrated. Best of luck to all you owners, he's one of the guys I dont own that I am legitimately rooting for. I don't think talent is the concern here.


I agree 100% with you. I owned him last year too. In the beginning he was taken off the field because of fumbling issues, he worked hard and in the last 8 games they gave him the majority of touches and he had monster games. He runs very hard and is very very fast... I dont know why they keep taking him out, but i agree that was very frustrating to have him last year. But i would pick him up this year again if he was available for me, i think his week 1 fumble opened the door to buck allen regain GL duties. .

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I know this was mentioned upthread anyway, but I meant to mention it above myself: one of the relative strengths that Allen brings to the table that Collins does not is pass blocking.  Collins ranked in the bottom-10 in pass-blocking efficiency among all backs last year.  And for a team with Joe Flacco at QB - who isn’t the most mobile at the position and lives to take huge slow-developing downfield shots - that is a glaring weakness.  Now Allen is no superstar in that department - but he’s a significant improvement.

 

When you combine that strength with Allen’s other attributes, you can see that BAL will be in no hurry to phase him out of the offense.  As I see it, Collins is a unique combination of very-high-floor and mid-level ceiling.  (Which does make him an excellent buy-low, BTW.)

 

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31 minutes ago, BMcP said:

Sounds like two separate arguments are being made here, both of which are probably true: 1) if you drafted X instead of Collins and picked up Buck for free, you acquired more production for less cost; and 2) Collins is the superior back, despite usage trends.

 

This sound about right?  If so, I can agree on both counts.

 

From the other. Thread. Point #1 is why folks are reacting like they are and it's valid. Y'all can do all the mental gymnastics and "what if"  scenarios you need but bottom line is those what ifs didn't happen for Collins. Nobody is saying drop him but Ravens were ahead and he didn't do well, Ravens fell behind and buck shows up again. I get it. You guys will go down with the ship good or bad. Others won't. This will be the low fat version of the Derrick Henry thread moving forward. I'll bring the popcorn 

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