GreatestShowonTurf

Alex Collins 2018 Outlook

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2 minutes ago, adifazio27 said:

 

First off, three cheers for Rizon on the MVP (most valuable post) of this thread. 

 

Second, I did notice that. Watched the replay a bunch to see if he got tripped up by anything, but it was his own feet. If he doesn't fall there, 99% of the complaints in this thread are gone. 

 

Ive seen him do this quite a few times. 

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Frustrating game to watch for Collins' owners, no doubt. 


It's been said multiple times, but that game script was absolutely dreadful for Collins, and he still produced 90 total yards. 

 

On his third and final reception, which I believe went for 24 yards, he juked a defender and forced a missed tackle, allowing him to pick up another 15-20 yards down the sideline. It was a pretty impressive catch and run. 

 

Nothing from last night changes my opinion that Collins is a talented runner and capable receiver. The only issue is that Buck Allen seems unlikely to completley "go away," and he might continue to vulture TDs (although Collins DID get a shot from the 1 after Allen's TD) and when the Ravens fall behind it seems like Collins' workload will suffer. I don't think 12 touches and 90 yards is a terrible outcome considering how that game started. The Ravens were down 21-0 in the blink of an eye, and all but abandoned the run for 3.5 quarters. 

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I enjoy all the smug MMQB'ing in here.  'what did people see in him last year'... 'he was just ok last year' and on and on.  Dude beasted in the second half last year whether people like it or not (and soundly backed up by actual advanced stats), and it seems he's just caught in a ridiculous timeshare with less talented backs.  Doesn't mean he's not a good runner or competent pass catcher.  

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Personally i would love to trade for Collins and stick him in my flex slot, I think he is going to have some studly weeks over the season however i just won't be able to predict his consistent week to week points or trust his utilization. 

I also think Lamar Miller and Peyton barber are good flex plays too 

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You Collins owners have an excuse for everything.....

This week-12 touches ....lost goal line carry...poor coach utilization “game script”

Week 1- blow out....didn’t want to risk their number 1 back “game script”

 

Hopefully we will see the ideal game script at some point to make you guys ?!

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Guy was on my Reach List this year because of his talent and situation. For him to get 9 points in a horrible game script is great. If you watched the game it’s hard not to be disappointed as a Collins owner but if you reached for him you probably drafted him right where belongs. 

 

P.S. Always liked him better that D Henry this year.

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5 minutes ago, kencav said:

You Collins owners have an excuse for everything.....

This week-12 touches ....lost goal line carry...poor coach utilization “game script”

Week 1- blow out....didn’t want to risk their number 1 back “game script”

 

Hopefully we will see the ideal game script at some point to make you guys ?!

 

Looking at the "game script" is not just excuse making, it's a real thing. 

 

Week 1 - 40 point lead, all the starters came out. Ravens had another game in 4 days. Makes sense to give your third string RB those touches and let your starter rest. 

Week 2 - 21 point deficit by early 2nd quarter. Flacco threw it 55 times and the run game was abandoned completely. 

 

Let's see a game where the Ravens trail but not by 3 scores, or a game where the Ravens are leading (but it's not a complete blowout so they actually leave their starters in) and trying to control time of possession/kill the clock. 

 

It's possible we would see the same sort of distribution of snaps/touches, but it's more likely that Collins has had to endure a perfect storm of bad so far, and better days will come. 

 

FWIW - I'm not even mad about the Buck Allen goal line TD anymore. Collins got a chance down there himself later in the game, and just last week he scored from 7 yards out. If Collins is the lead back and is getting his touches, he'll score his share of TDs (see 2nd half of last year). Buck Allen vulturing him might cap his upside and keep Collins from being a RB1, but he wasn't drafted to be anyone's RB1. 

 

Dare I say buy low?

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7 minutes ago, mjb03003 said:

 

Looking at the "game script" is not just excuse making, it's a real thing. 

 

Week 1 - 40 point lead, all the starters came out. Ravens had another game in 4 days. Makes sense to give your third string RB those touches and let your starter rest. 

Week 2 - 21 point deficit by early 2nd quarter. Flacco threw it 55 times and the run game was abandoned completely. 

 

Let's see a game where the Ravens trail but not by 3 scores, or a game where the Ravens are leading (but it's not a complete blowout so they actually leave their starters in) and trying to control time of possession/kill the clock. 

 

It's possible we would see the same sort of distribution of snaps/touches, but it's more likely that Collins has had to endure a perfect storm of bad so far, and better days will come. 

 

FWIW - I'm not even mad about the Buck Allen goal line TD anymore. Collins got a chance down there himself later in the game, and just last week he scored from 7 yards out. If Collins is the lead back and is getting his touches, he'll score his share of TDs (see 2nd half of last year). Buck Allen vulturing him might cap his upside and keep Collins from being a RB1, but he wasn't drafted to be anyone's RB1. 

 

Dare I say buy low?

 

Guy fumbles too much.  That puts him in the dog house.  Keep an eye on who gets promoted from the practice squad.....just like he was last year.

Being up and fumbling is bad.

Being down and fumbling is bad.

Being close and fumbling is bad.

 

Coach needs to see in practice that he has his fumbling under control.

Practice forcing fumbles on running plays.  See what happens.

 

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3 minutes ago, jmausen said:

 

Guy fumbles too much.  That puts him in the dog house.  Keep an eye on who gets promoted from the practice squad.....just like he was last year.

Being up and fumbling is bad.

Being down and fumbling is bad.

Being close and fumbling is bad.

 

Coach needs to see in practice that he has his fumbling under control.

Practice forcing fumbles on running plays.  See what happens.

 

 

They went back to him after his fumble in Week 1, and I really think it was game script (not fear over fumbling) that led to his usage last night. I mean they did give him carries and targets all over the field...

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What I don't understand is why the Ravens didn't use him after 5 min left in the 3rd. Collins' last 2 touches were a 22 yard pass, with two broken tackles, and a 5 yard run. Down a score or 2 he's the best chunk play guy on the team. Design some passes for him so you don't have to worry about pass protection. Let him run sweeps so he gets out of bounds...... what the hell are the ravens doing?

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2 hours ago, oliminator123 said:

To be fair he didn't break anything. Just horrible tackling by the Bengals. 

 

Definition of nonsense. Some people can look like beasts and will always have people looking the other way. Why didn’t Buck break tackles if it were due to the Bengals then?

 

Same people who seem to think Collins owners make excuses are the same that seem to think this is a full committee or that it’s a 50/50 share. 

 

It isnt.

 

Collins had close to 2/3 the snaps in the first half. That’s a pretty traditional lead back workload. He had the first play of every drive. He split GL work 50/50 and has more RZ Carries and Targets than Buck as well as the most Rush TDs in the NFL since Week 11 of ‘17. 

 

It is pretty obvious to me what the Ravens are doing and that is a traditional Lead-Back/COP split with Collins being the clear lead back. In games that are close or the Ravens are leading going into the Second Half, Collins will continue to get a 2/3 workload. In games where the Ravens are trailing or trailing by a lot late, Collins will cede more snaps to Buck. 

 

Last night was the definition of proving that you can score for your fantasy team even when the Script is trying to phase you out. First two drives combined for 1 yard and a Flacco INT. Got down fast. Still finds ways to score in the PASSING Game. 

 

Just no concerns here really. You watch when and how they were utilized and I think it’s clear the roles that they are in.

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28 minutes ago, mjb03003 said:

 

Looking at the "game script" is not just excuse making, it's a real thing. 

 

Week 1 - 40 point lead, all the starters came out. Ravens had another game in 4 days. Makes sense to give your third string RB those touches and let your starter rest. 

Week 2 - 21 point deficit by early 2nd quarter. Flacco threw it 55 times and the run game was abandoned completely. 

 

Let's see a game where the Ravens trail but not by 3 scores, or a game where the Ravens are leading (but it's not a complete blowout so they actually leave their starters in) and trying to control time of possession/kill the clock. 

 

It's possible we would see the same sort of distribution of snaps/touches, but it's more likely that Collins has had to endure a perfect storm of bad so far, and better days will come. 

 

FWIW - I'm not even mad about the Buck Allen goal line TD anymore. Collins got a chance down there himself later in the game, and just last week he scored from 7 yards out. If Collins is the lead back and is getting his touches, he'll score his share of TDs (see 2nd half of last year). Buck Allen vulturing him might cap his upside and keep Collins from being a RB1, but he wasn't drafted to be anyone's RB1. 

 

Dare I say buy low?

 

I guess this is my biggest knock on Collins and it seems as if Collins owners are failing to see this. He is so game dependent. Whether owners believe that or not, the coaching staff seemingly believes this. I see this a lot in the Henry thread as well as the Collins thread about "game flow". If these guys were as "legit" as people make them out to be, they would produce in any scenario. I think Collins is a solid back that owners overvalue. He runs hard, but sometimes is out of control and seems to always be off-balance. People compare him to Marshawn and Marshawn also ran with the same wreckless abandon but Marshawn always seemed to have control and good balance.

 

The fear that Collins owners should have or people using him in DFS is that the Ravens schedule will be hard to predict what Collins will show up on a week to week basis. Also, how good is the Ravens offense? How good is this Ravens team? Will Collins be put in a position where he will always have positive game script?

 

They have some tough games including DEN, @PITT, NO, @TEN, @CAR, PIT. They could easily be trailing in most if not all of these games outside of Tennessee who has a good run defense. 

Edited by nonstopfan

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6 minutes ago, taobball said:

Just no concerns here really. You watch when and how they were utilized and I think it’s clear the roles that they are in.

There are concerns here. Just less about Collins and more about the coaching decisions. 

Edited by Dark Kn19ht
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Just now, Dark Kn19ht said:

There are concerns here. Just less about Collins and more about the coaching decisions. 

 

I disagree. Coaching decisions were game flow determined. Collins has seen a 2/3 share in neutral scripts which should happen more in a 16 game season. Whole point of the post sir. 

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3 minutes ago, nonstopfan said:

If these guys were as "legit" as people make them out to be, they would produce in any scenario

 

I mean Collins had a touchdown week 1 and 90 total yards week 2. He hasn't put up monster numbers, but he's produced pretty well all things considered. 

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7 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

Definition of nonsense. Some people can look like beasts and will always have people looking the other way. Why didn’t Buck break tackles if it were due to the Bengals then?

 

Same people who seem to think Collins owners make excuses are the same that seem to think this is a full committee or that it’s a 50/50 share. 

 

It isnt.

 

Collins had close to 2/3 the snaps in the first half. That’s a pretty traditional lead back workload. He had the first play of every drive. He split GL work 50/50 and has more RZ Carries and Targets than Buck as well as the most Rush TDs in the NFL since Week 11 of ‘17. 

 

It is pretty obvious to me what the Ravens are doing and that is a traditional Lead-Back/COP split with Collins being the clear lead back. In games that are close or the Ravens are leading going into the Second Half, Collins will continue to get a 2/3 workload. In games where the Ravens are trailing or trailing by a lot late, Collins will cede more snaps to Buck. 

 

Last night was the definition of proving that you can score for your fantasy team even when the Script is trying to phase you out. First two drives combined for 1 yard and a Flacco INT. Got down fast. Still finds ways to score in the PASSING Game. 

 

Just no concerns here really. You watch when and how they were utilized and I think it’s clear the roles that they are in.

I was only referring to that one run. The Bengals defenders whiffed on a leg tackle and other guy pretty much just bounced off Collins. 

 

I am a Collins detractor and knew his situation going into the season was garbage, mainly because I don't trust Flaccid Flacco to lead a sufficient offense, but also because of this shroud regarding JAG Allen. 

 

It reminds me of Mixons use last year with Bernard and Hill sprinkled in here and there and was incredibly frustrating, which is why the entire Ravens backfield was a DND for me. 

 

I will admit Collins looked good last night. But his situation is awful. 

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4 minutes ago, nonstopfan said:

They have some tough games including DEN, @PITT, NO, @TEN, @CAR, PIT. They could easily be trailing in most if not all of these games outside of Tennessee who has a good run defense. 

 

I don't think trailing is a bad thing. It's trailing by 21 in the 2nd quarter that is a problem, because it makes the playcalling skew pass-heavy early and often. 

 

And again, despite the fact that Ravens were behind and proceeded to throw it 55 times, Collins had 90 total yards, including 55 receiving. Getting behind isn't ideal for Collins but it's not a death knell. 

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1 minute ago, taobball said:

 

I disagree. Coaching decisions were game flow determined. Collins has seen a 2/3 share in neutral scripts which should happen more in a 16 game season. Whole point of the post sir. 

You don't get chunk yards on your last two plays and sit the rest of the game without that being a problem/concern of the coaching staff's part. That's all I'm saying. They should have used him regardless of score because he's the best RB they have. 

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6 minutes ago, nonstopfan said:

 

I guess this is my biggest knock on Collins and it seems as if Collins owners are failing to see this. He is so game dependent. Whether owners believe that or not, the coaching staff seemingly believes this. I see this a lot in the Henry thread as well as the Collins thread about "game flow". If these guys were as "legit" as people make them out to be, they would produce in any scenario. I think Collins is a solid back that owners overvalue. He runs hard, but sometimes is out of control and seems to always be off-balance. People compare him to Marshawn and Marshawn also ran with wreckless abandoned but Marshawn always seemed to have control and good balance.

 

The fear that Collins owners should have or people using him in DFS is that the Ravens schedule will be hard to predict what Collins will show up on a week to week basis. Also, how good is the Ravens offense? How good is this Ravens team? Will Collins be put in a position where he will always have positive game script?

 

They have some tough games including DEN, @PITT, NO, @TEN, @CAR, PIT. They could easily be trailing in most if not all of these games outside of Tennessee who has a good run defense. 

This.......

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3 minutes ago, nonstopfan said:

 

I guess this is my biggest knock on Collins and it seems as if Collins owners are failing to see this. He is so game dependent. 

 

So he’s game flow dependent because when nothing goes his way he gets 90 total yards on 12 touches? 

 

Couple diff between Henry and Collins. #1, Collins is the lead back. Henry and Lewis split drives 50:50 from the beginning of games. Collins gets almost all the work early in games. He sees 2/3 snaps, sees every first, and is used more traditionally as a lead back. #2 is the difference in talent between allen and Lewis, the latter of whom is simply better than DH for my money. 

 

 

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2 minutes ago, oliminator123 said:

 

I will admit Collins looked good last night. But his situation is awful. 

 

Yeah I just don’t agree at all.

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1 minute ago, taobball said:

 

Yeah I just don’t agree at all.

you must have gotten him way later in the draft than most that are frustrated, or got him for significant value in auction. 

 

Guys a good football player, no doubt, but from a fantasy perspective has some work to do to be a weekly RB2.

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