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Alex Collins 2018 Outlook

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13 minutes ago, dakimbell said:

you must have gotten him way later in the draft than most that are frustrated, or got him for significant value in auction. 

 

Guys a good football player, no doubt, but from a fantasy perspective has some work to do to be a weekly RB2.

 

 

I mean I'm a pure non-results guy when projecting. (Reading Results as sort of the baseline of fantasy scoring and not usage/performance/play/etc.) If we're purely focused on his points scored the last two weeks, that's a reason to be disappointed of course. I'm looking at moving forward and what I expect. Collins has ran as the clear lead back at the beginning of each game, and there's no reason in his performance last night to believe that'll change. if the Ravens, who were considered as one of the best defensive units heading into 2018, continue to throw games away in the first quarter-- well then I'd expcet more games like this. But I don't expect that to happen. And I do like the perfomrnaces that we've seen. And I do like the early usages that we've seen early in games. So I'm not all that concerned moving forward that the Ravens-- still a 1-1 team that I project to be a WC contender in the AFC-- will have at least one game this season where a team isn't winning by 20 points by the end of the first quarter. 

 

And in terms of ROI, his ROI has been seriously not as bad as plenty are making it out to be. Some different rules, but in my Yahoo league he hit 12.88 last night against a projected 14.99. He's certainly not going to kill me this week. 

Edited by taobball

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Collins' usage is just extremely disappointing. The Ravens continue to let Flacco throw the ball 45-50 times a game. Just dumb. 

Edited by GurleyTHIRTY
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16 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

Yeah I just don’t agree at all.

Based on the first 2 games alone, I don't see how you can disagree. He had a TD vultured last night. The coaching staff has made no indications they're going to switch from what they've been doing. 

 

I can understand being optimistic, but until a change is made it is hard to be happy with where he is.  

Edited by oliminator123
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I dunno friends, it was a 1 or 2 possession game pretty much the entire second half, and obviously wasn't a blowout when the game started.

 

Might need to face an uncomfortable reality that Harbaugh only prefers Collins when the Ravens aren't way ahead, way behind, or a little bit behind.  I guess that leaves tied games and when the Ravens are a small bit ahead.

 

And I note that Harbaugh is essentially insane, as Allen is a total stiff and Collins looks like a miracle whenever he bribes his way into a handoff or check down.

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6 minutes ago, mjb03003 said:

 

They went back to him after his fumble in Week 1, and I really think it was game script (not fear over fumbling) that led to his usage last night. I mean they did give him carries and targets all over the field...

 

He's also averaging 3 yards per carry.

The last time Harbargh gave a RB 250+ carries was Ray Rice in 2012: 220 carries * 4 ypc = 55 yards per game. 

 

The Ravens have 2 RBs on their practice squad.

I'll be looking for news regarding Turner and Edwards.

 

https://www.baltimoreravens.com/news/ravens-assemble-their-2018-practice-squad

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28 minutes ago, dakimbell said:

you must have gotten him way later in the draft than most that are frustrated, or got him for significant value in auction. 

 

Guys a good football player, no doubt, but from a fantasy perspective has some work to do to be a weekly RB2.

 

They keep ignoring this. If you got Collins in the 4th round then there's no reason to be upset. But a lot of folks took him in the 2nd/early 3rd round. That's why you see all the hope and optimistic posts here. Collins has the talent. Just needs the coaching to follow along. No reason that he shouldnt get the majority of snaps regardless of game flow. That's what is maddening. Buck should rarely see the field no matter what. I don't know what kinda blackmail buck has on Harbaugh but it's working. 

 

Agree with him being a buy low because I can tell you there are some Collins owners who took him early that are panicking. Take advantage there 

Edited by Guwop

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6 minutes ago, oliminator123 said:

Based on the first 2 games alone, I don't see how you can disagree. He had a TD vultured last night. 

 

Kind've. Allen had more snaps in that drive and it was the first drive in the game that was more Allen's than Collins even before they got there. Collins also got a carry at the 1 yard line. Collins also leads the NFL in Rushing TDs since Week 11 of 2017. He also carried five defenders to the end zone last week. He also saw enough RZ looks after the bye last year to pace for 3rd in the NFL in RZ looks. His efficiency numbers in the RZ last year were tremendous. 

 

First two games alone have given me the confidence that in neutral scripts, Collins is the clear lead back, because in neutral scripts he has been the clear lead back. It has also given me confidence that in negative scripts, he can produce fantasy points like he did last night. And I have slightly adjusted my TD projection in case Buck sees a higher % of RZ/GL continuing forward than I thought he would. But Collins still has had more Red Zone carries and targets on the season than Buck. 

 

They're using Buck and Collins pretty tradtionally. Buck is the COP who vultures sometimes. Collins is the lead back. I will easily take a lead back on a team I believe has a good defense and a back I personally believe to be extremely talented. 

Edited by taobball

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I'd also like to point out... I saw comments about Collins telegraphing the run. That is patently false. I would argue, and probably be able to statistically defend, teh stance that Collins snaps are far more Run/Pass balanced and Buck's snaps are FAR more pass heavy. They only want to keep Buck in the game for long stretches where everyone knows they are only passing, like late in a game where you're trying to come back. 

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10 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

 

I mean I'm a pure non-results guy when projecting. (Reading Results as sort of the baseline of fantasy scoring and not usage/performance/play/etc.) If we're purely focused on his points scored the last two weeks, that's a reason to be disappointed of course. I'm looking at moving forward and what I expect. Collins has ran as the clear lead back at the beginning of each game, and there's no reason in his performance last night to believe that'll change. if the Ravens, who were considered as one of the best defensive units heading into 2018, continue to throw games away in the first quarter-- well then I'd expcet more games like this. But I don't expect that to happen. And I do like the perfomrnaces that we've seen. And I do like the early usages that we've seen early in games. So I'm not all that concerned moving forward that the Ravens-- still a 1-1 team that I project to be a WC contender in the AFC-- will have at least one game this season where a team isn't winning by 20 points by the end of the first quarter. 

 

And in terms of ROI, his ROI has been seriously not as bad as plenty are making it out to be. Some different rules, but in my Yahoo league he hit 12.88 last night against a projected 14.99. He's certainly not going to kill me this week. 

agreed, i think he is absolutely worth buying "low" on, he's proven it. I just think his coaching staff could derail a great fantasy season for him. The talent is most definitely there, the only other worry I have of him, is he has been labeled a fumbler, and so the pressure is mounted more on him than others, a fumble or two lands him in the doghouse quicker than similar backs with his talent and production.

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Do we believe the Ravens defense will be as good as it was last year. They looked like world beaters week one but that was the bills. Yesterday didn't look good against a good offense (rival game, Thursday night football made them suck, etc etc) but can you hold on to last year's stats in this year's season? Things are different 

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Just now, dakimbell said:

agreed, i think he is absolutely worth buying "low" on, he's proven it. I just think his coaching staff could derail a great fantasy season for him. The talent is most definitely there, the only other worry I have of him, is he has been labeled a fumbler, and so the pressure is mounted more on him than others, a fumble or two lands him in the doghouse quicker than similar backs with his talent and production.

 

Iwon't deny fumbles are still a glaring and oft terrifying issue if he does continuously put it on the ground. It's the man in the shadows for sure. Buck's usage is what oesn't bother me as much as others. 

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Fumbling, low volume, getting vultured....so glad I avoided at his high adp.    Literally any other back in that range would be preferable.   

 

Hope it turns around for his owners...

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1 minute ago, Guwop said:

Do we believe the Ravens defense will be as good as it was last year. They looked like world beaters week one but that was the bills. Yesterday didn't look good against a good offense (rival game, Thursday night football made them suck, etc etc) but can you hold on to last year's stats in this year's season? Things are different 

 

No idea at this point obviously, but I'm willing to believe that with their personnel and coaching they look far better. Last night seemed like one of those games where early on they trsuted Scheme too much  and simply forgot who mainly AJG was.

 

Plus let's also point out Flacco dropped an INT the very first play in his own territory after the first TD. The defense didn't completely get shredded early on-- they were put in terrible spots by Flacco being abysmal early on. 

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Collins is obviously more talented, but the coaches love the time share. Tough situation, but if he converts from the 1, it’s a solid fantasy night.

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1. He’s been exactly what you drafted him as so far: solid RB2.  Sure only 16 carries through 2 games isn’t great but I don’t see Buck Allen eating that much into the early down work plus Collins has continued to look like the player he was last year.

 

2. Who the hell was drafting him in the late 2nd/early 3rd?  Your own fault if you drafted him expecting that kind of return.

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7 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

Kind've. Allen had more snaps in that drive and it was the first drive in the game that was more Allen's than Collins even before they got there. Collins also got a carry at the 1 yard line. Collins also leads the NFL in Rushing TDs since Week 11 of 2017. He also carried five defenders to the end zone last week. He also saw enough RZ looks after the bye last year to pace for 3rd in the NFL in RZ looks. His efficiency numbers in the RZ last year were tremendous. 

 

First two games alone have given me the confidence that in neutral scripts, Collins is the clear lead back, because in neutral scripts he has been the clear lead back. It has also given me confidence that in negative scripts, he can produce fantasy points like he did last night. And I have slightly adjusted my TD projection in case Buck sees a higher % of RZ/GL continuing forward than I thought he would. But Collins still has had more Red Zone carries and targets on the season than Buck. 

 

They're using Buck and Collins pretty tradtionally. Buck is the COP who vultures sometimes. Collins is the lead back. I will easily take a lead back on a team I believe has a good defense and a back I personally believe to be extremely talented. 

You should worry about the state of the Ravens D. If game plan dictates Collins' usage, that defense looked extremely vulnerable last night. 

 

Week 1 was against, what might be, one of the worst NFL offenses of all time. 

 

Collins owners need to hope the Ravens D just had a bad night on a short week. 

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2 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:

Fumbling, low volume, getting vultured....so glad I avoided at his high adp.    Literally any other back in that range would be preferable.   

 

Hope it turns around for his owners...

 

I still don't believe anyone will be saying this come week 17, but we'll see. 

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Just now, oliminator123 said:

You should worry about the state of the Ravens D. If game plan dictates Collins' usage, that defense looked extremely vulnerable last night. 

 

Week 1 was against, what might be, one of the worst NFL offenses of all time. 

 

Collins owners need to hope the Ravens D just had a bad night on a short week. 

 

It looked vulnerable specifically on the first and third drive of the first quarter. Looked pretty good in the second half and had to deal with short fields because the Ravens offense came out like a Dumpster fire. We'll see how the defense does on teh second drive the next game if hopefully flacco doesn't take the offense on a 1 Play, 1 INT drive. 

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3 minutes ago, Chwf3rd said:

1. He’s been exactly what you drafted him as so far: solid RB2.  Sure only 16 carries through 2 games isn’t great but I don’t see Buck Allen eating that much into the early down work plus Collins has continued to look like the player he was last year.

 

2. Who the hell was drafting him in the late 2nd/early 3rd?  Your own fault if you drafted him expecting that kind of return.

 

I'm in 3 leagues and he was gone by mid third round in each. Just from chatting with friends about the game alot of them saw Collins gone by round 3. A lot of people are sold on his talent. I'd say you're lucky if you could wait until the 4th round to get him. He had a lot of buzz coming into the season. Royce freeman is in a similar situation where he was taken high accept he doesn't look to have the talent that Collins does but he was taken early too

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5 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

Iwon't deny fumbles are still a glaring and oft terrifying issue if he does continuously put it on the ground. It's the man in the shadows for sure. Buck's usage is what oesn't bother me as much as others. 

 

Get used to seeing a few more fumbles you can tell by his running style, he fights to stay on his feet which basically creates opps for the defense to attack the ball.

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12 minutes ago, oliminator123 said:

Based on the first 2 games alone, I don't see how you can disagree. He had a TD vultured last night. The coaching staff has made no indications they're going to switch from what they've been doing. 

 

I can understand being optimistic, but until a change is made it is hard to be happy with where he is.  

 

I went through this all the time with Kareem Hunt last season. He blew up at the beginning of the year, but then he settled into infuriating usage, where every time the Chiefs were inside the 5 he’d get pulled for West, or Reid would dial up a silly gadget play.

 

I lost the championship because I benched Hunt for some waiver bum the first week of the playoffs, only to see him explode the final few weeks.  I should have looked at the box scores rather than throwing my phone across the room every time West got a two minute drill to himself.

 

Collins is obviously not on Hunt’s level, but he can still produce as an RB2 in this timeshare, it’s just going to be awful when the Ravens are in catchup mode and you just need 10 more yards out of Collins to win your matchup and Allen gets the final series to himself.  I’m listening to buy-low offers, but I’m trying not to overreact too much and just look at the box score.

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4 minutes ago, Guwop said:

 

I'm in 3 leagues and he was gone by mid third round in each. Just from chatting with friends about the game alot of them saw Collins gone by round 3. A lot of people are sold on his talent. I'd say you're lucky if you could wait until the 4th round to get him. He had a lot of buzz coming into the season. Royce freeman is in a similar situation where he was taken high accept he doesn't look to have the talent that Collins does but he was taken early too

Royce Freeman is more talented than collins by a good margin. I'm not just saying that because I took him in the 3rd round of my draft as my #2 but look at the game he had against the Seahawks. Frank Gore 2.0

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4 minutes ago, dashoe said:

 

Get used to seeing a few more fumbles you can tell by his running style, he fights to stay on his feet which basically creates opps for the defense to attack the ball.

 

Sure. He might. You're a fumbler til your not so to speak. He looked better in this regard late last season compared to early. He had a slip up to start the season. Hopefully he can get back to the improvement. 

 

--

 

Terms of the Ravens D, they had three dreadful possessions last night where they got shredded for TDs. They had 1 TD drive that was 16 yards off a Flacco TD. They also forced punts early in the first and suffocated teh Bengals for four straight drives to start the quarter, and only gave up some late FGs and around 6 points in the second half. I'm fine in believing that the Ravens D won't look this bad. 

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