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Alex Collins 2018 Outlook

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Y'all can keep pretending Buck Allen is so great in short yardage situations. Here are the #'s. It's clear who is more productive. I'm not going to chase those TD's, they will even out given time. 

 

 

Split Value Att Yds Y/A TD 1D Tgt Rec Yds Y/R TD 1D Ctch% Y/Tgt
Yards to Go career 36 161 4.5 3 24 11 8 48 6 0 6   4.4
Yards to Go 2017 30 151 5 2 21 6 3 23 7.7 0 2   3.8
Yards to Go 2018 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0   0 0    
                             
Split Value Att Yds Y/A TD 1D Tgt Rec Yds Y/R TD 1D Ctch% Y/Tgt
Yards to Go career 59 134 2.3 6 37 12 7 40 5.7 1 5   3.3
Yards to Go 2017 28 75 2.7 3 19 5 4 16 4 1 3   3.2
Yards to Go 2018 4 8 2 2 3 2 1 1 1 0 0   0.5
Edited by sngehl01

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23 minutes ago, Novaray said:

Cannot wait until Jackson is starting and starts getting in on stealing Collins' goalline TDs

You'll be waiting until next year for Jackson to start. 

 

But Jackson will certainly see some goal line runs as the season progresses. 

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Just now, sngehl01 said:

Y'all can keep pretending Buck Allen is so great in short yardage situations. Here are the #'s. It's clear who is more productive. I'm not going to chase those TD's, they will even out given time. 

 

Alex Collins in his career with 1-3 yards to go : 

36 carries, 161 yards (4.5 Y/A) 3 TD, 24 1D

 

Buck Allen in his career with 1-3 yards to go :

59 carries, 134 yards (2.3 Y/A) 6 TD, 37 1D

 

Collins in 2017/2018 with 1-3 yards to go : 

32 carries, 151 yards (4.7 Y/A), 1 TD, 21 1D

 

Allen in 2017/2018 with 1-3 yards to go : 

31 carries, 89 yards, (2.8 Y/A), 5 TD, 22 1D

 

There's a difference between short yardage and goal line.

 

The worry about Collins is that he has never scored a goal line TD, already failed at it this year, and watched someone else succeed at it twice.  There's a real risk that he will be pulled regularly at the goal line, severely tempering his fantasy production.  

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1 minute ago, Chardo said:

 

There's a difference between short yardage and goal line.

 

The worry about Collins is that he has never scored a goal line TD, already failed at it this year, and watched someone else succeed at it twice.  There's a real risk that he will be pulled regularly at the goal line, severely tempering his fantasy production.  

 

And you are living off small sample sizes. Collins is better than Allen no matter how you split it. I'd be interested in seeing actual DATA from the 1-3 yard line, not just guy feelings on what guys think. 

The numbers don't suggest Collins doesn't do well at the goal line. They do suggest he hasn't been blessed with opportunity, or an overwhelming amount. 

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16 carries in 2 games.    You guys can spin it however u want but that’s concerning if I was a Collins owner.   3 down back is how he was drafted and he isn’t even a 2 down back

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Just now, Impreza178 said:

16 carries in 2 games.    You guys can spin it however u want but that’s concerning if I was a Collins owner.   3 down back is how he was drafted and he isn’t even a 2 down back

 

If Baltimore is going to constantly be up 40 points or down 20+, then yes, it's concerning. 

You don't draft 3 down backs at the end of the third/middle of the fourth. 

 

He had 90 yards last night on a pretty low touch total. Again, over reacting to a 2 game sample isn't going to do you any good. Capitalizing on owners who are? That's what's going to win championships. 

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1 hour ago, Impreza178 said:

Fumbling, low volume, getting vultured....so glad I avoided at his high adp.    Literally any other back in that range would be preferable.   

 

Hope it turns around for his owners...

 

Disagree with you on the above.  According to fantasypros ADP chart, McCoy (pick 26), Drake (33), Henry (35), Ajayi (37), and Royce Freeman (40) were all drafted in a similar range as Collins (31).  You think every one of those backs in preferable to Collins at this point?  I think Collins is underutilized, and it's definitely concerning since he's essentially my RB2 (though I got him later than most in a std league, so not freaking out as much as some others).  But I don't think even now I can definitively say I'd choose him last of that group.

 

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3 minutes ago, sngehl01 said:

 

If Baltimore is going to constantly be up 40 points or down 20+, then yes, it's concerning. 

You don't draft 3 down backs at the end of the third/middle of the fourth. 

 

He had 90 yards last night on a pretty low touch total. Again, over reacting to a 2 game sample isn't going to do you any good. Capitalizing on owners who are? That's what's going to win championships. 

 

Thats a very clever catch phrase... But also a double edged sword.

 I don’t feel he’s a good buy low, but im also not selling him yet.  Stuck with him unless you want to take a bath on that pick.   

 

Its a long season though...u may be proven correct.  

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5 minutes ago, sngehl01 said:

 

If Baltimore is going to constantly be up 40 points or down 20+, then yes, it's concerning. 

You don't draft 3 down backs at the end of the third/middle of the fourth. 

 

He had 90 yards last night on a pretty low touch total. Again, over reacting to a 2 game sample isn't going to do you any good. Capitalizing on owners who are? That's what's going to win championships. 

Patriots jumped on the Texans last week and were up 24-6 early in the 3rd. Miller still got 20 carries. Just excuses

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1 minute ago, Gohawks said:

Patriots jumped on the Texans last week and were up 24-6 early in the 3rd. Miller still got 20 carries. Just excuses

 

Yep, I'd much rather have Miller.  Alas, in the league in which I have Collins, Miller went higher (which was a surprise to me since that was not how most drafts were playing out).

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1 hour ago, dashoe said:

 

At what point will they coaches abandon lamar Jackson touches in the redzone?

I think this point emphasizes the horrendous play calling by the coaches.  By lining Flacco out wide, they are essentially conceding to playing 10 v 11 in the red zone.  Given that the size of the field in now drastically reduced in the red zone, the likelihood of Jackson breaking through is greatly diminished... not to mention that his style of option running just isn't very successful in the NFL (compared to college).  Quit being cute; if you are going to try this scheme, at least take Flacco off the field and give yourself either another blocker or potential play maker on the field.  Hell, I'd rather see Jackson out there with Allen AND Collins, that might keep the defense at bay a little bit.

 

Just a prime case of questionable play calling.

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1 minute ago, Josh GODon said:

 

Disagree with you on the above.  According to fantasypros ADP chart, McCoy (pick 26), Drake (33), Henry (35), Ajayi (37), and Royce Freeman (40) were all drafted in a similar range as Collins (31).  You think every one of those backs in preferable to Collins at this point?  I think Collins is underutilized, and it's definitely concerning since he's essentially my RB2 (though I got him later than most in a std league, so not freaking out as much as some others).  But I don't think even now I can definitively say I'd choose him last of that group.

 

 

That’s mighty pricey for Shady...  but fair enough on that one. I’d easily take any of the others over Collins.    Add Miller to the group too. None have made glaring mistakes, just need more time to get rolling.   The fumbling is a HUGE concern.  

 

 

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1 minute ago, Impreza178 said:

 

 

That’s mighty pricey for Shady...  but fair enough on that one. I’d easily take any of the others over Collins.    Add Miller to the group too. None have made glaring mistakes, just need more time to get rolling.   The fumbling is a HUGE concern.  

 

 

 

I think I'd still take Collins over Shady and Henry.  Didn't see any of the Miami game so I'll reserve on Drake.  I'm an Eagles fan, so I know that Ajayi has a ton of competition for the job there.  They should be (SHOULD be) a much better offense than the Ravens, so that should help, but the Eagles do weird things like give Sproles a ton of GL carries.

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11 minutes ago, sngehl01 said:

 

If Baltimore is going to constantly be up 40 points or down 20+, then yes, it's concerning. 

You don't draft 3 down backs at the end of the third/middle of the fourth. 

 

He had 90 yards last night on a pretty low touch total. Again, over reacting to a 2 game sample isn't going to do you any good. Capitalizing on owners who are? That's what's going to win championships. 

Refusing to see the reality of what’s going on does not win you championships. You shouldn’t have drafted Collins for the talent, you should have drafted him (for how high his ADP was) for the opportunity. He’s not getting the majority of pass down plays and he’s not getting the majority of goal line carries, which most expected him too. That’s extremely concerning.

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1 minute ago, Gohawks said:

Patriots jumped on the Texans last week and were up 24-6 early in the 3rd. Miller still got 20 carries. Just excuses

 

Excuses, or observation? 

You're going to contend that the game situation in week 1 had no bearing whatsoever on Collins usage? 

Uh, yeah, ok. 

And 24-6 != 40-0. 

And the Bills O != the Texans O. 


There was a 40 point gap against the Bills in the third (until 2:38 left). (at best 5 scores)

 

Houston was down 21-6 at the half (2 scores). 24-13 at the end of the third (two scores)

 

One game was an absolute blowout. The other was in reach. 

These are not the same. 

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2 minutes ago, Josh GODon said:

 

I think I'd still take Collins over Shady and Henry.  Didn't see any of the Miami game so I'll reserve on Drake.  I'm an Eagles fan, so I know that Ajayi has a ton of competition for the job there.  They should be (SHOULD be) a much better offense than the Ravens, so that should help, but the Eagles do weird things like give Sproles a ton of GL carries.

That’s fair man.   My intent is not to be the Collins troll lol.   Good post 

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1 minute ago, Ruut6 said:

Refusing to see the reality of what’s going on does not win you championships. You shouldn’t have drafted Collins for the talent, you should have drafted him (for how high his ADP was) for the opportunity. He’s not getting the majority of pass down plays and he’s not getting the majority of goal line carries, which most expected him too. That’s extremely concerning.

 

And we are in week 2. The talent has gone anywhere. Allen isn't a threat to get a 50:50 workload. 

He's been far more effective with his touches. I'm fine with what I've seen. If something better is on your waiver wire, by all means, make a move. I doubt that's the case. 

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1 minute ago, Impreza178 said:

That’s fair man.   My intent is not to be the Collins troll lol.   Good post 

 

Lol.  I got you.  I didn't think that was the case.  Just thought I'd weigh in with my own perception as a frustrated owner.  And there appear to be plenty of Collins trolls to go around, and they're much more obvious.  :lol:

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1 minute ago, sngehl01 said:

 

Allen isn't a threat to get a 50:50 workload. 

But they both have 20 touches through 2 weeks. Lol. Gotta see reality.

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20 minutes ago, sngehl01 said:

 

And you are living off small sample sizes. Collins is better than Allen no matter how you split it. I'd be interested in seeing actual DATA from the 1-3 yard line, not just guy feelings on what guys think. 

The numbers don't suggest Collins doesn't do well at the goal line. They do suggest he hasn't been blessed with opportunity, or an overwhelming amount. 

 

The actual data is that since joining Baltimore, Collins has 3 carries inside the 3.  Their other RBs have 10 over that time.  Which begs the question, why?  Do the coaches not have confidence in him?

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4 minutes ago, Ruut6 said:

But they both have 20 touches through 2 weeks. Lol. Gotta see reality.

 

Again, you want to base your 2018 outlook on a 2 game sample? The reality is they were 2 games that had unique circumstances. 


They may have 20 touches, but Collins has twice the carries. Game 1 Collins was out because why put him out there? 

Last night, yeah, it's a tad concerning, but far from enough to make me worry.

 

The reality is also Collins has been better with his touches. Allen has stumbled into a pair of TD's. Great for him. Give me Collins still. Not only that, but if Allen gets hurt, Collins is going to be a true workhorse. As it stands? He's still easily a flex play with high end RB2 upside. 

 

When I say workload for an RB, I talk strictly in terms of carries. For a guy like Collins, I care about 1st and 2nd down. Passing downs I expect a lot of guys to cede touches (especially around where Collins was drafted). 

 

Kenneth Dixon had 14 totes. Who do you think a dozen of those go to if it's not a 40-0 game in the third against the Bills? 

 

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Just now, sngehl01 said:

 

Again, you want to base your 2018 outlook on a 2 game sample? The reality is they were 2 games that had unique circumstances. 


They may have 20 touches, but Collins has twice the carries. Game 1 Collins was out because why put him out there? 

Last night, yeah, it's a tad concerning, but far from enough to make me worry.

 

The reality is also Collins has been better with his touches. Allen has stumbled into a pair of TD's. Great for him. Give me Collins still. Not only that, but if Allen gets hurt, Collins is going to be a true workhorse. As it stands? He's still easily a flex play with high end RB2 upside. 

 

When I say workload for an RB, I talk strictly in terms of carries. For a guy like Collins, I care about 1st and 2nd down. Passing downs I expect a lot of guys to cede touches (especially around where Collins was drafted). 

 

Kenneth Dixon had 14 totes. Who do you think a dozen of those go to if it's not a 40-0 game in the third against the Bills? 

 

questions....

 

has Allen been effective and held onto the ball near the GL?   If yes, what reason would they have to force the guy with fumbling issues there?

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12 minutes ago, sngehl01 said:

 

And we are in week 2. The talent has gone anywhere. Allen isn't a threat to get a 50:50 workload. 

He's been far more effective with his touches. I'm fine with what I've seen. If something better is on your waiver wire, by all means, make a move. I doubt that's the case. 

 

It doesn't have to be which is why Allen owners are loving his position right now especially in PPR. The bonus is knowing the Collins is a fumble away from it possibly being 50/50 or potentially more.

 

Also, I would take Drake and Shady over Collins for sure. I've been critical of backs going in the 3rd and 4th round all summer. They all have their issues. McCoy and his offensive support, Drake having to deal with Gore but the two things they have working for them that Collins don't is "game flow" security and they are not one fumble away from losing playing time.

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6 minutes ago, Chardo said:

 

The actual data is that since joining Baltimore, Collins has 3 carries inside the 3.  Their other RBs have 10 over that time.  Which begs the question, why?  Do the coaches not have confidence in him?

 

That is another question entirely, and I do find it curious. However, for getting him in the fourth, I didn't expect a 3 down horse with all the goal line touches. I also didn't expect them all to go to Buck Allen either, though. 

 

I drafted Collins with dreams of 1200 total yards and 8-10 TD's in the fourth. 

 

Considering he had 6 TD in his last 8 games with 500 rushing yards approx and 160 receiving yards, I don't think that was a stretch. He was drafted as a flex, for me. If you drafted him at RB2, you better have loaded up elsewhere or you probably reached here. 

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