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Alex Collins 2018 Outlook

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36 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:

16 carries in 2 games.    You guys can spin it however u want but that’s concerning if I was a Collins owner.   3 down back is how he was drafted and he isn’t even a 2 down back

 

25 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:

 

 

That’s mighty pricey for Shady...  but fair enough on that one. I’d easily take any of the others over Collins.    Add Miller to the group too. None have made glaring mistakes, just need more time to get rolling.   The fumbling is a HUGE concern.  

 

 

 

You really think it's that much of a spin? He scored 10.5 1/2 point PPR points last night. People are acting like the excuses are based around him scoring 3 points. He scored 10. 

 

Collins > All of those guys and it still isn't close. 

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10.5 Points Half point is the same as Dalvin Cook and Christian McCaffery had last week. It puts him at RB24 based on week 1 instead of RB16. The bitching is insane. 

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2 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:

questions....

 

has Allen been effective and held onto the ball near the GL?   If yes, what reason would they have to force the guy with fumbling issues there?

 

I don't think Collins is going to come swipe away goal line touches, nor do I think he needs to for him to get to the 8 TD's mark I had expected. Allen has converted 4 1yd td's between last season and the 2 games this year. Collins has none. I think it's safe to say carries on the 1-2 yard line will be Allen. 

 

2 minutes ago, nonstopfan said:

 

It doesn't have to be which is why Allen owners are loving his position right now especially in PPR. The bonus is knowing the Collins is a fumble away from it possibly being 50/50 or potentially more.

 

Also, I would take Drake and Shady over Collins for sure. I've been critical of backs going in the 3rd and 4th round all summer. They all have their issues. McCoy and his offensive support, Drake having to deal with Gore but the two things they have working for them that Collins don't is "game flow" security and they are not one fumble away from losing playing time.

 

I can concede Drake, but give me Collins over Shady. Much better tools, younger, better team, and not banged up. 

 

I partially worry about Collins putting it on the ground again. Because of this, I don't think Collins steals back goal line work from Allen. 

 

This has nothing to do with me not liking Allen. I think he's a fine play in PPR. It has to do with me thinking everyone is freaking out over 2 games from Alex Collins when I don't think they should be. That's all. 

I just wanted to be a dissenting voice so when a bystander comes and reads this he doesn't freak out and think everyone is bailing. There are reasons to be optimistic still. 

If this continues for 2 more weeks, I may very well cut him myself. However, I'm not there yet. 

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2 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

 

You really think it's that much of a spin? He scored 10.5 1/2 point PPR points last night. People are acting like the excuses are based around him scoring 3 points. He scored 10. 

 

Collins > All of those guys and it still isn't close. 

   

Ooof.....

 

ostrich meet sand

 

1 minute ago, sngehl01 said:

 

I don't think Collins is going to come swipe away goal line touches, nor do I think he needs to for him to get to the 8 TD's mark I had expected. Allen has converted 4 1yd td's between last season and the 2 games this year. Collins has none. I think it's safe to say carries on the 1-2 yard line will be Allen. 

 

 

I can concede Drake, but give me Collins over Shady. Much better tools, younger, better team, and not banged up. 

 

I partially worry about Collins putting it on the ground again. Because of this, I don't think Collins steals back goal line work from Allen. 

 

This has nothing to do with me not liking Allen. I think he's a fine play in PPR. It has to do with me thinking everyone is freaking out over 2 games from Alex Collins when I don't think they should be. That's all. 

I just wanted to be a dissenting voice so when a bystander comes and reads this he doesn't freak out and think everyone is bailing. There are reasons to be optimistic still. 

If this continues for 2 more weeks, I may very well cut him myself. However, I'm not there yet. 

 

Very reasonable.   And I agree- it’s just not what people where hoping for when drafting him.   Jury is still out 

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the irony of the coaches not playing him more because due to fumble concerns is that it leads to Flacco holding the ball longer and throwing more, which results in more interceptions.

 

They seem to look for excuses not to run the ball as evidenced by throwing a ton even in week one.

 

it also gases their defense as you could see last night.

 

Good RB pass blocking and 4 yard dumps is apparently how they want to play.

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Usage seems concerning with this guy. When they are ahead he doesn't get much work and when they are behind he doesn't get much work.

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1 minute ago, Impreza178 said:

   

Ooof.....

 

ostrich meet sand

 

How? I thikn you're overreacting. One will be right one will be wrong. 

 

People said he would get gameplanned out. He wasn't. 

 

Why is it fair to panic about Collins' 10.5 point week in a terrible game script and it isn't fair to panic about CMC or Cook? 

 

I think you're way too focused on the end result and not watching what's actually happening on the field. Collins has absolutely dominated touches and snaps in neutral game scripts. The Ravens have been in neutral game scripts less than any team in football this year. If you think they are always going to be out of neutral game scripts, than by all means, call me crazy. But I think they're more likely to see neutral game scripts moving forward.

 

There are positive Collins game scripts, Allen game scripts, and Neutral Game Scripts. But Collins dominates Neutral. And has managed to score this week as a low-end RB2 despite playing the entire game in an Allen Game Script. 

 

Long season to say that I should completely change my entire opinion after two weeks. I have no problem waiting for this to work out. i still am pretty confident what this thread will say in 10 weeks if this guy stays healthy. 

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10 minutes ago, taobball said:

10.5 Points Half point is the same as Dalvin Cook and Christian McCaffery had last week. It puts him at RB24 based on week 1 instead of RB16. The bitching is insane. 

Dreadlock and dancing discrimination at its finest.

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11 minutes ago, taobball said:

You really think it's that much of a spin? He scored 10.5 1/2 point PPR points last night. People are acting like the excuses are based around him scoring 3 points. He scored 10. 

1 minute ago, taobball said:

I think you're way too focused on the end result and not watching what's actually happening on the field. 

 

 

:huh:

 

You’re quoting his point totals.   I’m concerned with his usage and ball security.   

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1 minute ago, Impreza178 said:

 

:huh:

 

You’re quoting his point totals.   I’m concerned with his usage and ball security.   

 

You didn't address anything I said with Scripts. I directly spent that entire post talking about usage. 

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1 minute ago, Josh GODon said:

 

Collins owners are panicking for sure :lol:

 

i have carson and ill for sure take the buy low gamble on that. i'm 70/30 that collins will bounce back. 

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1 minute ago, brosephd said:

 

i have carson and ill for sure take the buy low gamble on that. i'm 70/30 that collins will bounce back. 

 

Ditto.  I have Carson in one league, and if I were offered Collins for him, I wouldn't hesitate to pull the trigger.

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How can anyone say they'd rather have McCoy (on what could be a historically awful offense), Drake (in practically the same situation as Collins but on a worse offense), Henry (don't get me started on this overdrafted JAG), Freeman (ceding a ton of carries to Lindsay and played an awful Seattle defense), Ajayi (questionable usage and this offense goes through Wentz and the passing game).

 

I think Collins is a low end RB2 and still would take him over the garbo above. Miller I can see an argument, but none if the others. 

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1 minute ago, taobball said:

 

You didn't address anything I said with Scripts. I directly spent that entire post talking about usage. 

I apologize then. 

You're not going to convince me that what we’ve seen so far is what we were hoping or expecting.  But I’m not trying to close the book either.   We can respectfully agree to disagree 

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2 minutes ago, oliminator123 said:

How can anyone say they'd rather have McCoy (on what could be a historically awful offense), Drake (in practically the same situation as Collins but on a worse offense), Henry (don't get me started on this overdrafted JAG), Freeman (ceding a ton of carries to Lindsay and played an awful Seattle defense), Ajayi (questionable usage and this offense goes through Wentz and the passing game).

 

I think Collins is a low end RB2 and still would take him over the garbo above. Miller I can see an argument, but none if the others. 

There’s just one problem with that....

 

after this week Collins will have the fewest carries and most fumbles with the greatest chance of losing more status than any of the other guys you mentioned.  

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2 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:

I apologize then. 

You're not going to convince me that what we’ve seen so far is what we were hoping or expecting.  But I’m not trying to close the book either.   We can respectfully agree to disagree 

 

I mean i'm not upset I just don't agree. Collins gets carries and snaps on the first drives of the game. I believe Allen's first touch in each game was in drive 5. Allen gets more usage as games go on IF the Ravens are getting blown out. If they don't, I don't think they change from what we've seen early game. That's my take. 

 

The first game is a complete anomaly. I don't think it even needs to be defensed, personally. There's not often you get EVERY starter benched for half of a football game. 

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2 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:

There’s just one problem with that....

 

after this week Collins will have the fewest carries and most fumbles with the greatest chance of losing more status than any of the other guys you mentioned.  

And yet he has looked better than all of the above in terms of running the ball. 

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Oh man some of you guys are in way over your head. Collins will be fine. No one expected him to be a workhorse. There are many more other RBs to worry about like Derrick Henry. He has a legit threat like Dion that is actually a very good RB. Not Buck Allen. At some point things are going to turn for collins cause Harbough is getting close to being on the hot seat. At some point you have to question why your best player is getting 9 carries a game.

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8 minutes ago, Josh GODon said:

 

Collins owners are panicking for sure :lol:

 

I think we have all agreed on something in this thread. We would ALL take this trade.

 

I would actually take this trade and proceed to quickly trade Collins away for someone with more upside before his value diminishes even more. Kind of like that show Barter Kings on A&E. I would not want to deal with the headache especially if you own Allen who you got for free and could produce similar results.

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Wouldn’t trade him for Carson

YET

 

We saw a fair bit of Penny on a bad offense with a bad line to get overly excited for Carson.  He also lost a fumble.   

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4 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:

Wouldn’t trade him for Carson

YET

 

We saw a fair bit of Penny on a bad offense with a bad line to get overly excited for Carson.  He also lost a fumble.   

 

Oh man. I've already dug myself the pro-Collins hole. Don't dig yourself too deep into an anti-Collins hole for when he actually gets a good game script and outtouches Buck something like 25-9 next week. 

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1 minute ago, taobball said:

 

Oh man. I've already dug myself the pro-Collins hole. Don't dig yourself too deep into an anti-Collins hole for when he actually gets a good game script and outtouches Buck something like 25-9 next week. 

Apparently anything short of unabashed optimism is too much of an “anti-Collins hole”

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Just now, Impreza178 said:

Apparently anything short of unabashed optimism is too much of an “anti-Collins hole”

 

I wouldn't call your stance "just short of unabashed optimism", personally. 

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