Alex Collins 2018 Outlook

[Dylanfan66 151]

A good rb3.

[Bmore86 229]

6 minutes ago, Big Nate said:

Ok thanks for this. What the heck was I looking at.  I need more coffee it looks like.

No prob!

[BGDDYKWL 787]

3 hours ago, taobball said:

 

So jc but how did you inform that opinion on Dixon? His 88 career carries impressed you so much?

 

I don’t fundamentally understand the fascination this fourth round Mid-Major player has generated while do nothing but getting hurt, suspended, and being pretty average when he does play, statistically at least, over the past two seasons

Eye test. And no I'm not a scout or expert, but he passed it for me. Collins strikes me as more of a JAG. And admittedly, his YPC is better. I think most would agree Dixon is the far better pass catcher, but given his size I was impressed by his movement in the open field. That combined with his pass catching ability and being nearly 230 pounds and he was IMO their best RB. But you're absolutely right, off the field issues, injury prone, and very small sample size.

[J.T. Marlin 890]

20 minutes ago, BGDDYKWL said:

Eye test. And no I'm not a scout or expert, but he passed it for me. Collins strikes me as more of a JAG. And admittedly, his YPC is better. I think most would agree Dixon is the far better pass catcher, but given his size I was impressed by his movement in the open field. That combined with his pass catching ability and being nearly 230 pounds and he was IMO their best RB. But you're absolutely right, off the field issues, injury prone, and very small sample size.

Seriously, did you watch Collins play at all last year?  Admittedly, I did not see every BAL game or Collins carry but he certainly looked electric the many times that I did watch (quickness, cutting, decisiveness). Certainly far from a JAG IMO. 

[Evincar 1,103]

6 minutes ago, J.T. Marlin said:

Seriously, did you watch Collins play at all last year?  Admittedly, I did not see every BAL game or Collins carry but he certainly looked electric the many times that I did watch (quickness, cutting, decisiveness). Certainly far from a JAG IMO. 

 

Yeah I dont think a JAG would have performed like Collins did last year, especially with a banged up offensive line.

[owenmills 4,159]

16 minutes ago, Evincar said:

Yeah I dont think a JAG would have performed like Collins did last year, especially with a banged up offensive line.

 

The thing with Collins last year was the fumbling. It was evident he was a good RB, he just put the ball on the turf way too much which scared people. He got it figured out though and had a really good season. 

[taobball 7,483]

36 minutes ago, BGDDYKWL said:

Eye test. And no I'm not a scout or expert, but he passed it for me. Collins strikes me as more of a JAG. And admittedly, his YPC is better. I think most would agree Dixon is the far better pass catcher, but given his size I was impressed by his movement in the open field. That combined with his pass catching ability and being nearly 230 pounds and he was IMO their best RB. But you're absolutely right, off the field issues, injury prone, and very small sample size.

 

No offense intended, but I consider “eye test” the ultimate cop-out. There’s no such thing as the “generic eye-test.” You have to see something. What did Dixon do in 88 carries w/ a 4.3 YPC as a rookie two years ago that still sticks with you today? Because I can tell you what I loveeeeee about Alex Collins and I don’t have to just say “eye-test.”

 

Marshawn Lynch I think is actually an apt comparison. I think that was the Seahawks goal when they originally went after Collins. His power is good. His inside tackle quickness is good. His vision is real good. (All three traits I consider better than Dixon.) But his Balance is what makes him to me. I think Balance is what made Lynch Lynch. 

 

I think ive used this potentially in this thread before. But the very first highlight on this piece I actually think is a bit of a rare skill set. Maintaining relative balance, lightly stumbling, regaining balance, and using it to achieve max speed in a relatively short amount of time: (Around 0:38)

 

 

 

I don’t just believe Balance is important, I think it is one of the most important aspects for a RB and how they translate physical traits to the football field. And I don’t just think Collins balance is good. I think it’s superb. 

 

I don’t think Dixon has even whiffed looking as good as Collins on a football field. People just are still dreaming about 2016 Sleeper Values imo.

[Joe Odam 925]

^^ thank you for the reminder

[The G Man 422]

He definitely has some nimble footwork. 

[Big Nate 1,323]

1 hour ago, BGDDYKWL said:

Eye test. And no I'm not a scout or expert, but he passed it for me. Collins strikes me as more of a JAG. And admittedly, his YPC is better. I think most would agree Dixon is the far better pass catcher, but given his size I was impressed by his movement in the open field. That combined with his pass catching ability and being nearly 230 pounds and he was IMO their best RB. But you're absolutely right, off the field issues, injury prone, and very small sample size.

I recommend you watch the highlights that were just posted.  

 

The question for this year is, will he be the lead back and get most of the carriers? He had 6 TDs last year and I think he could improve that, especially if his touches increase.  He had 212 for 973 (4.6ypc) which is very good.  This guy makes plays.  If he can increase his carries to ~250 this year and some more receptions he's going to put up good numbers.  

 

The question for me is where is a good spot to draft this guy?  He finished last year as RB17 in standard.  He's currently going around RB16-18 so even if he doesn't improve he's right around his proper ADP.  

[Breesus 83]

Alex Collins will have a better year than a completely healthy Fournette this year. *Puts hater blocking glasses on*

[Sternes 3,718]

1 hour ago, Big Nate said:

I recommend you watch the highlights that were just posted.  

 

The question for this year is, will he be the lead back and get most of the carriers? He had 6 TDs last year and I think he could improve that, especially if his touches increase.  He had 212 for 973 (4.6ypc) which is very good.  This guy makes plays.  If he can increase his carries to ~250 this year and some more receptions he's going to put up good numbers.  

 

The question for me is where is a good spot to draft this guy?  He finished last year as RB17 in standard.  He's currently going around RB16-18 so even if he doesn't improve he's right around his proper ADP.  

 

 

I think his ADP is pretty solid.  If he burns you it shouldn't cost you and he certainly has a good chance to outperform that ADP.   5th/6th round I'm content with him.

Edited August 10, 2018 by Sternes

[Big Nate 1,323]

10 minutes ago, Sternes said:

 

 

I think his ADP is pretty solid.  If he burns you it shouldn't cost you and he certainly has a good chance to outperform that ADP.   5th/6th round I'm content with him.

His ADP has been climbing and its late 3rd round in standard scoring now. 12 man.

[taobball 7,483]

13 minutes ago, Sternes said:

 

 

I think his ADP is pretty solid.  If he burns you it shouldn't cost you and he certainly has a good chance to outperform that ADP.   5th/6th round I'm content with him.

 

I don’t think you’re getting him in the fifth. ESP with Dixon down. He’s much closer to a 3rd to me, FWIW. 

[Sternes 3,718]

3rd round I'm passing.  Screw that.    I could reach in the 4th; maybe. 

[taobball 7,483]

16 minutes ago, Sternes said:

3rd round I'm passing.  Screw that.    I could reach in the 4th; maybe. 

 

More late round RB1s for this guy then 

 

 

[fakespike 119]

20 minutes ago, Sternes said:

3rd round I'm passing.  Screw that.    I could reach in the 4th; maybe. 

 

Well then enjoy your Ajayi, Drake, Miller, Ingram or RoJo (the next 5 RBs in ADP by FFC). 

[joshua18 6,589]

2 minutes ago, fakespike said:

 

Well then enjoy your Ajayi, Drake, Miller, Ingram or RoJo (the next 5 RBs in ADP by FFC). 

 

I'd much rather have Ajayi or Miller. Even more so if they're going to be cheaper.

[BGDDYKWL 787]

3 hours ago, taobball said:

 

No offense intended, but I consider “eye test” the ultimate cop-out. There’s no such thing as the “generic eye-test.” You have to see something. What did Dixon do in 88 carries w/ a 4.3 YPC as a rookie two years ago that still sticks with you today? Because I can tell you what I loveeeeee about Alex Collins and I don’t have to just say “eye-test.”

 

Marshawn Lynch I think is actually an apt comparison. I think that was the Seahawks goal when they originally went after Collins. His power is good. His inside tackle quickness is good. His vision is real good. (All three traits I consider better than Dixon.) But his Balance is what makes him to me. I think Balance is what made Lynch Lynch. 

Again, I'm no expert, and I don't follow college so my analysis begins on guys in the preseason. I saw about 5 snaps from David Johnson and he immediately passed the eye test for me. Now I owned Dixon and not Collins, so admittedly I took more interest in him, but I liked what I saw. I also didn't watch a ton of Collins, but he seemed pretty ordinary to me. I'll watch more this year so I certainly could be wrong, but I see him closer to a Rawls than a Lynch.

[BGDDYKWL 787]

2 hours ago, Big Nate said:

The question for me is where is a good spot to draft this guy?  He finished last year as RB17 in standard.  He's currently going around RB16-18 so even if he doesn't improve he's right around his proper ADP.  

Safe to say I'm not nearly as high on him as most in here, but at the end of the day, you have no competition, and he's coming off a very productive season (all things considered), where he averaged 4.6 YPC on a terrible team. That can't be overlooked. His ADP will continue to climb, but I'd take him well above what it was at a week or so ago.

[fakespike 119]

11 minutes ago, BGDDYKWL said:

Again, I'm no expert, and I don't follow college so my analysis begins on guys in the preseason. I saw about 5 snaps from David Johnson and he immediately passed the eye test for me. Now I owned Dixon and not Collins, so admittedly I took more interest in him, but I liked what I saw. I also didn't watch a ton of Collins, but he seemed pretty ordinary to me. I'll watch more this year so I certainly could be wrong, but I see him closer to a Rawls than a Lynch.

 

did you happen to stay in a Holiday Inn Express last night?

[taobball 7,483]

15 minutes ago, BGDDYKWL said:

Again, I'm no expert, and I don't follow college so my analysis begins on guys in the preseason. I saw about 5 snaps from David Johnson and he immediately passed the eye test for me. Now I owned Dixon and not Collins, so admittedly I took more interest in him, but I liked what I saw. I also didn't watch a ton of Collins, but he seemed pretty ordinary to me. I'll watch more this year so I certainly could be wrong, but I see him closer to a Rawls than a Lynch.

 

I’m not asking for anything that needs to be an expert. If something sticks out to you, what is that? I just don’t think it’s hard when you have a definitive opinion to define why. I still don’t really understand why you don’t like Collins / like Dixon. “Looks better” “looks ordinary” and “does/not pass the eye test” doesn’t really explain things... idk. I just figure there’s a reason for the definitive ness. Something you see 

[BGDDYKWL 787]

4 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

I’m not asking for anything that needs to be an expert. If something sticks out to you, what is that? I just don’t think it’s hard when you have a definitive opinion to define why. I still don’t really understand why you don’t like Collins / like Dixon. “Looks better” “looks ordinary” and “does/not pass the eye test” doesn’t really explain things... idk. I just figure there’s a reason for the definitive ness. Something you see 

Just my memory of watching them. Unfortunately given it was a year ago (two years in Dixon's case), I don't remember specifics. It doesn't look like we'll ever get the chance to see if I was right on Dixon but we'll definitely get our answer on Collins this year.

[SadFaceHappy 1,439]

4 hours ago, taobball said:

Marshawn Lynch I think is actually an apt comparison. I think that was the Seahawks goal when they originally went after Collins. His power is good. His inside tackle quickness is good. His vision is real good. (All three traits I consider better than Dixon.) But his Balance is what makes him to me. I think Balance is what made Lynch Lynch. 

Your point about balance is a very good one, but the lynch comparison is a reach.  Lynch played at 225+, while I read somewhere (a page or two ago here?) that Collins bulked up to 205 this off-season.

I like Collins better than a lot of guys in his range, and getting Yanda back should be huge for Baltimore (stayed away from Collins last year bc his injury - it was a mistake), but I'm not super comfortable with him.

[taobball 7,483]

11 minutes ago, SadFaceHappy said:

Your point about balance is a very good one, but the lynch comparison is a reach.  Lynch played at 225+, while I read somewhere (a page or two ago here?) that Collins bulked up to 205 this off-season.

I like Collins better than a lot of guys in his range, and getting Yanda back should be huge for Baltimore (stayed away from Collins last year bc his injury - it was a mistake), but I'm not super comfortable with him.

 

I mean I don’t consider 20 lbs of playing weight to be the reason I make / don’t make a comp. they run similarly have similar styles similar traits and similar advantages imo. I think the Lynch comp is pretty apt and I think Collins is my favorite relative dark horse to lead the league in YPC