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Alex Collins 2018 Outlook

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1 hour ago, taobball said:

 

More late round RB1s for this guy then ;)

 

 

 

Where his ADP was, I liked him as it gave me some buffer for error.  In the 3rd I have to be right on him, and I don't have that same confidence in that bracket.  I'm going to really have to assess how much I like him.  Right now I like him, I don't love him.  I love Howard AND his current ADP for example.  I liked Collins and loved where he was going.  I firmly believed he was better than guys like Drake, Ajayi, and Guice.  I might just hold out he falls to me. 

 

I think there is a lot of early talent (top 4), a couple guys in the middle I truly believe in, a couple guys who I think have a great chance to outperform their ADP, and then a bunch of guys I can have late, 9th/10th+ rounds who I feel bundled together are great rolls of the dice.

 

A tough call and I'm going to have to give him a hard look if he keeps trending upward.

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6 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

I mean I don’t consider 20 lbs of playing weight to be the reason I make / don’t make a comp. they run similarly have similar styles similar traits and similar advantages imo. I think the Lynch comp is pretty apt and I think Collins is my favorite relative dark horse to lead the league in YPC

Fair point, and there's certainly room for comparison - just recognizing that lynch is going to be able to bounce off of and run over guys that will take Collins down.  But Collins probably has a speed and quickness edge on lynch, and if they both share outstanding balance that's huge for a rb.

For what it's worth, I have Collins even with McKinnon - they should probably both be 3rd rounders - but Collins is undervalued at his 4th round adp, while McKinnon is going a bit too high with a 2nd round adp.

Still, I like Mixon better in the 3rd than Collins in the 4th

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1 hour ago, Sternes said:

 

Where his ADP was, I liked him as it gave me some buffer for error.  In the 3rd I have to be right on him, and I don't have that same confidence in that bracket.  I'm going to really have to assess how much I like him.  Right now I like him, I don't love him.  I love Howard AND his current ADP for example.  I liked Collins and loved where he was going.  I firmly believed he was better than guys like Drake, Ajayi, and Guice.  I might just hold out he falls to me. 

 

I think there is a lot of early talent (top 4), a couple guys in the middle I truly believe in, a couple guys who I think have a great chance to outperform their ADP, and then a bunch of guys I can have late, 9th/10th+ rounds who I feel bundled together are great rolls of the dice.

 

A tough call and I'm going to have to give him a hard look if he keeps trending upward.

 

 

I mean I like Jordan Howard better too. But there's quite a large difference between (FantasyPros) an ADP of 21 and an ADP of 40. Yes, Howard is ranked a bit lower in some systems. But ADP data says he's a late-2nd Rounder. Collins is a mid-to-late 4th. There's quite a large difference of price range there. 

 

CSB -- I'm 10th of 12 in my Main Snake. I have to take Howard at 14 or likely miss him at 34. Howard's not going to be an option for me this year in that league. But Collins at 34? All-in. I'm also doing my first draft of the season tomorrow (Live Auction) and I let Auctions play themselves out, but Howard/Collins as a tandem is pretty likely for me based on where I've seen others value them. 

 

I don't wanna go full list, but I have Collins as RB12-14. He's going at RB20. Pretty sizable difference. 

 

But that's just me. I'm high on him. I expect him to be top 5 in the NFL this year in yards per carry. I think he has a shot at 5.0+ and/or leading the league. I think he's that talented of a runner. 

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An interesting video from Chris Harris who isnt a fan of Collins. I agree with the lack of long speed but I disagree with everything else.

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39 minutes ago, Evincar said:

 

An interesting video from Chris Harris who isnt a fan of Collins. I agree with the lack of long speed but I disagree with everything else.

 

Chris Harris is embarrassingly slow to admit his initial takes on a player were wrong. Likely he wrote off Collins while in SEA and just can't accept that he's a better player now. 

 

Harris is a film expert: just ask him. 

Edited by joshua18
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9 minutes ago, cjw99 said:

Collins or Ajayi?? Really close imo

 

Clement’s share should be bigger than Buck’s, for whatever that’s worth. I agree, though, these two are close.

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2 hours ago, Evincar said:

 

An interesting video from Chris Harris who isnt a fan of Collins. I agree with the lack of long speed but I disagree with everything else.

 

3rd gear is not nearly as important as first step quickness and vision. 

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Harris is a hack. 

2 hours ago, joshua18 said:

 

Chris Harris is embarrassingly slow to admit his initial takes on a player were wrong. Likely he wrote off Collins while in SEA and just can't accept that he's a better player now. 

 

Harris is a film expert: just ask him. 

 

This about sums it up. Listening to him throw shade on some of those runs was borderline laughable

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I see this guy getting a lot of hype as a bell cow. I had him last year and while he was solid I didn't really think of him as a bell cow per say. Buck Allen and others were seeing their fare share of work if I recall correctly.

 

What would you expect his volume to be like in comparison to some other backs going in his range such as Drake, Henry, Ajayi, Lynch? 

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Just now, TrueToTheBlue said:

Drake, Henry, Ajayi, Lynch

I would take him over all these guys, personally.  Henry is close.  Drake is sorta close, but still behind Henry.

 

I think he'll be more involved in the passing game this year, and I expect the offense to be better as a whole.  He should get more red zone looks, too.  At this point, I don't see Dixon as much of a threat anymore unless Collins gets injured.  Buck is Buck; he'll have a role, particularly on third down, but I don't see it making a big dent in Collin's production ultimately.  I see Collins hovering around the 12-15 range for RB's, with upside for more.

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4 hours ago, TrueToTheBlue said:

I see this guy getting a lot of hype as a bell cow. I had him last year and while he was solid I didn't really think of him as a bell cow per say. Buck Allen and others were seeing their fare share of work if I recall correctly.

 

What would you expect his volume to be like in comparison to some other backs going in his range such as Drake, Henry, Ajayi, Lynch? 

 

My personal projection is around 245 Carries, 1100-1200 Yards, and 7-9 TDs. 

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2 hours ago, taobball said:

 

My personal projection is around 245 Carries, 1100-1200 Yards, and 7-9 TDs. 

Did he ever take over RZ work from Buck?  Kinda important, because he was doing the dirty work last year, but not scoring very well.

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44 minutes ago, dogfightgiggle said:

Did he ever take over RZ work from Buck?  Kinda important, because he was doing the dirty work last year, but not scoring very well.

 

It seemed to me that when they were within the 5 yard line, Buck would be in. Outside of 5 yards, Collins was the guy.  They wanted the threat of the pass to open up the run rather than the threat of the run to open up the pass.

 

I don’t have all the stats in front of me but just off of memory, it seemed like AC ripped off most of his TD runs from around 10-15 yards out. Felt like most of his TD’s were of the longer variety. 

Edited by Sonny_D
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36 minutes ago, dogfightgiggle said:

Did he ever take over RZ work from Buck?  Kinda important, because he was doing the dirty work last year, but not scoring very well.

 

Depends on what you mean by take over RZ. I do still think it’s a split role. But he had 6 TDs in 7 games after the bye. His full line during that time was:

 

119 Carries, 452 Yards, 6 TDs, 20 Rec, 154 Yards. 

 

In 16 games that’s: 

272 Carries, 1033 Yards, 14 TDs, 46 Rec, 352 Yards. 

 

I expect the YPC to be better with guard play that ranges from average to hall of fame as opposed to guard play that is bottom tier. 

 

I dont have the number in front of me, but he was also fairly efficient in scoring on limited touches in RZ. Think he gets more moving forward just like he seemed to after the break. 

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Collins is one I'm trying to convince myself on.

 

Are most drafting him as their RB2?

 

Where's the earliest your willing to take him in drafts?

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I like drafting 6-8 RBs.

Dixon is definitely worth a flier.  

 

Collins was filling in for Dixon last year. 

Did a great job filling in, but Dixon just might really be a better RB.  

There is that.

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Dixon has shown not much up to date, aside from being injury prone, that has outshined what Collins was able to do in the second half of last season (mind you, he was signed later into the season).

Edited by pdizzle710

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4 hours ago, bgar15 said:

Collins is one I'm trying to convince myself on.

 

Are most drafting him as their RB2?

 

Where's the earliest your willing to take him in drafts?

 

I dunno about this guy.  Rooting for him, but everything I read says he's not all that talented.  Of the RB's in his tier, he's the most likely to be a Justin Forsett or Zac Stacy flash in the pan that gets picked high after an "out of nowhere" career season and then flops.

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14 hours ago, Sonny_D said:

 

It seemed to me that when they were within the 5 yard line, Buck would be in. Outside of 5 yards, Collins was the guy.  They wanted the threat of the pass to open up the run rather than the threat of the run to open up the pass.

 

I don’t have all the stats in front of me but just off of memory, it seemed like AC ripped off most of his TD runs from around 10-15 yards out. Felt like most of his TD’s were of the longer variety. 

 

Collins' TDs were from 3, 8, 7, 6, 18, and 17 yards.  

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3 minutes ago, Chardo said:

 

Collins' TDs were from 3, 8, 7, 6, 18, and 17 yards.  

 

Yes. Was going off memory, I knew most were closer to the 10 yard variety rather than inside the 5.

Edited by Sonny_D

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17 minutes ago, kp96 said:

 

I dunno about this guy.  Rooting for him, but everything I read says he's not all that talented.  Of the RB's in his tier, he's the most likely to be a Justin Forsett or Zac Stacy flash in the pan that gets picked high after an "out of nowhere" career season and then flops.

 

I don’t know about that. I think he’s been electric even in his limited action in Seattle. The knock on him has always been ball security. If he can get that corrected (and he did the 2nd half of last year), I think he can be a steal. 

 

I’m not reaching for him, but I’m personally buying at the right ADP (similar guys in his tier). 

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Ravens fan here, so maybe some insight:  Dixon probably will not make the team as he always is dinged up and looks slow and sloppy in camp.  Allen will probably still take alot of the RZ opps at least from inside the 5.  He's more of a bruiser than Collins is.  Of more significance though, Flacco said this week he'd like to get the ball more to Collins and specifically used the word "checkdown".  Locally, he's known as Checkdown Joe so that could mean a bunch of value for PPR.  I like Collins and would possibly take him at the 3/4 turn.  I think he's more talented than people give him credit for.  YouTube that run he made against Cincy in the season finale last year.  One play does not a player make, but that was one helluva play!

Edited by Rather B. Winning
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1 hour ago, jmausen said:

I like drafting 6-8 RBs.

Dixon is definitely worth a flier.  

 

Collins was filling in for Dixon last year. 

Did a great job filling in, but Dixon just might really be a better RB.  

There is that.

 

I just don’t think this is accurate. It’s not like Dixon was ever the cemented RB1. At any point. I think you’re borderline romanticizing what Dixon has been to date. You’ve got Ravens fans chiming in that he might not make the team.

 

No offense intended, but knowing and discussing Baltimore situations with well read fans and people I know from the area,  it just doesn’t seem like Dixon is very much in favor of the organization right now. And I don’t get where all these contrarian views are coming from. Seems like people are just still holding out hope for a sleeper they really liked two years ago to me. 4th round rookie who’s constantly injured, suspended, plays a short life span position... leash isn’t there. 

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This situation reminds me so much of Crowell last year. Don't buy into the hype with Allen. You're reaching if you draft him in the top 60.

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