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Alex Collins 2018 Outlook

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6 minutes ago, Komfy said:

This situation reminds me so much of Crowell last year. Don't buy into the hype with Allen. You're reaching if you draft him in the top 60.

The entire Ravens offense is DND for me. If I'm sitting with my RB2 being Collins, I know I f'd up my draft. 

 

As long as Flaccid Flacco is at the helm the team is avoid. 

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4 minutes ago, oliminator123 said:

The entire Ravens offense is DND for me. If I'm sitting with my RB2 being Collins, I know I f'd up my draft. 

 

As long as Flaccid Flacco is at the helm the team is avoid. 

 

Curious why you think that after Collins had a very solid season last year and they've added better weapons around Flacco this year. I'd take Collins as my RB2 for sure depending on the rest of my roster

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2 minutes ago, TPowell said:

 

Curious why you think that after Collins had a very solid season last year and they've added better weapons around Flacco this year. I'd take Collins as my RB2 for sure depending on the rest of my roster

Due to all of the question marks surrounding whether or not Dixon and Allen are going to steal work. 

 

And Flacco is just horrible. One of the most overrated and overpaid QB's by far. How many fantasy relevant receivers has he put out the past 5 years? He has thrown for 27 touchdowns once and that was in 2014. Last two years he has had 20 and 18.  

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Just now, oliminator123 said:

Due to all of the question marks surrounding whether or not Dixon and Allen are going to steal work. 

 

And Flacco is just horrible. One of the most overrated and overpaid QB's by far. How many fantasy relevant receivers has he put out the past 5 years? He has thrown for 27 touchdowns once and that was in 2014. Last two years he has had 20 and 18.  

 

Collins still produced last season with Allen around. Maybe Dixon steals some thunder this season but that seems unlikely so far 

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1 minute ago, TPowell said:

 

Collins still produced last season with Allen around. Maybe Dixon steals some thunder this season but that seems unlikely so far 

Wait and see approach, but with a ADP around 3.06 that is way, way too steep. 

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1 minute ago, oliminator123 said:

Wait and see approach, but with a ADP around 3.06 that is way, way too steep. 

 

I have his ADP at 4.02 which is about right. I'd take Ajayi before him but I'd take him before Henry, Lewis, or Freeman/Penny pretty easily. That tier is mostly WR's though like DT, ARob, JuJu, and Cooper that I dislike (minus DT)

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1 minute ago, TPowell said:

 

I have his ADP at 4.02 which is about right. I'd take Ajayi before him but I'd take him before Henry, Lewis, or Freeman/Penny pretty easily. That tier is mostly WR's though like DT, ARob, JuJu, and Cooper that I dislike (minus DT)

If I have any of those RB's you listed as my RB2 I hate my team, including Collins. 

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Just now, oliminator123 said:

If I have any of those RB's you listed as my RB2 I hate my team, including Collins. 

 

What if you had this team? The way RB's get injured, you are better off getting your lead back early and then just stockpiling others IMO

 

Gurley

Allen

Ertz

ARob

Cooks

Newton

COLLINS as your RB2

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Disclaimer:  I bought heavily into Forsette a couple of years ago after a good year and got smoked.  That said, I still put Collins ahead of Howard, Ajayi, Henry, Miller and those types.  He will be the primary back, that is unquestioned.  The offense will be better and Flacco, while putrid for the past 3 years, is healthier than he's been and has some weapons at wr.  I think Collins is a sneaky good pick in the 30s or 40s.  

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46 minutes ago, oliminator123 said:

The entire Ravens offense is DND for me. If I'm sitting with my RB2 being Collins, I know I f'd up my draft. 

 

As long as Flaccid Flacco is at the helm the team is avoid. 

 

I'll shy away from Flacco and the passing game but I think Collins will produce, barring injury or something that gets him benched(like recurrence of his fumbling). I wouldn't feel uncomfortable at all with him as my RB2. 

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On 7/9/2018 at 2:36 AM, fakespike said:

For those of you joining the thread more recently, this was a very solid and convincing post from back on page 2. For those that think he is a JAG, I encourage you to watch his tape from last season. The dude has vision that you cannot teach, makes decisive & pinpoint accurate cuts, and has a nose for making something out of minimal room.

The Ravens have bolstered their line, added receivers which will help avoid the stacked boxes they faced last season, and Collins is in year two and now familiar with the offense. 

 

Zero receptions in his first 6 game, and finished with 23 over his last 9. This equates to roughly 40 over a full season, and you have to think that has room for growth to maybe 50 or so. 

 

I think he is setup for even more success this year, and his 4.6 YPC over 212 attempts is no joke. 

 

I'll project 240 carries, 1100 yards, 7 TDs, 45 receptions for 350 and 2 more TDs. This would return value at his current ADP. 

 

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This does kindve sound like Crowell last year. Biggest difference being the defense. If ravens D is elite, Collins should be a solid rb2. If ravens get behind, yeah Collins won’t be too good

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40 minutes ago, oliminator123 said:

If I have any of those RB's you listed as my RB2 I hate my team, including Collins. 

 

I dont disagree but the problem is, who do you get as your RB2? I don’t really like depending on anyone as my RB2 after J Howard in standard and he’s usually gone by mid round 2.

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1 minute ago, FreakFries said:

 

I dont disagree but the problem is, who do you get as your RB2? I don’t really like depending on anyone as my RB2 after J Howard in standard and he’s usually gone by mid round 2.

I like Collins & Lamar Miller the most out of that bunch. I wake up and pick a different side every other day. Can't pick who. Leaning Miller I think

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2 hours ago, FreakFries said:

 

I dont disagree but the problem is, who do you get as your RB2? I don’t really like depending on anyone as my RB2 after J Howard in standard and he’s usually gone by mid round 2.

You go RB heavy first 2 rounds. You can get easy upside WR1 in 3rd and 4th. 

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10 minutes ago, oliminator123 said:

You go RB heavy first 2 rounds. You can get easy upside WR1 in 3rd and 4th. 

 

 

I agree with you but in standard I honestly don’t see a ton of difference between, say, C McCaffery and Joe Mixon who are the choices in the 2nd after Cook, Howard and Freeman, and A Collins in the third. I’m also not completely sold that Freeman and, say, A Thielen is a better value than M Thomas or K Allen and A Collins. Are the odds of Collins being a bust greater than Freeman getting another concussion or ceding more carries to Coleman? Would MThomas make up the difference?

 

I fat prefer going RB, RB and would not feel good at all with A Collins as my RB2 but after the top 12, 11 even, RBs, I’m not sure there are any that are a round more attractive than A Collins in standard. Frustrating 

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Lot's to like about Collins this year, I think he's going to surprise a lot of naysayers. 

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He's like a broke man's Marcus Allen.  Faded down the stretch last year and too many average games for my taste.  He may be a fine "RB2" but that is pretty average these days on an avg game basis.  He's fine for the 5th round and up but if you are drafting in the 3rd or 4th you are passing up a select few upside WRs for a starter you can feel good about after draft day.  

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19 hours ago, taobball said:

 

Depends on what you mean by take over RZ. I do still think it’s a split role. But he had 6 TDs in 7 games after the bye. His full line during that time was:

 

119 Carries, 452 Yards, 6 TDs, 20 Rec, 154 Yards. 

 

In 16 games that’s: 

272 Carries, 1033 Yards, 14 TDs, 46 Rec, 352 Yards. 

 

I expect the YPC to be better with guard play that ranges from average to hall of fame as opposed to guard play that is bottom tier. 

 

I dont have the number in front of me, but he was also fairly efficient in scoring on limited touches in RZ. Think he gets more moving forward just like he seemed to after the break. 

 

3 hours ago, Panthers8912 said:

This does kindve sound like Crowell last year. Biggest difference being the defense. If ravens D is elite, Collins should be a solid rb2. If ravens get behind, yeah Collins won’t be too good

 

The biggest difference to me is talent level. 

 

7 minutes ago, Magoo said:

He's like a broke man's Marcus Allen.  Faded down the stretch last year and too many average games for my taste.  He may be a fine "RB2" but that is pretty average these days on an avg game basis.  He's fine for the 5th round and up but if you are drafting in the 3rd or 4th you are passing up a select few upside WRs for a starter you can feel good about after draft day.  

 

To be clear that faded down the stretch is that aforementioned 7 games where he averaged around 13.5 PPG standard and around 16 PPG PPR, correct? Where he was the 9th highest scoring RB?

 

Just checking. 

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Just now, taobball said:

 

 

The biggest difference to me is talent level. 

 

 

To be clear that faded down the stretch is that aforementioned 7 games where he averaged around 13.5 PPG standard and around 16 PPG PPR, correct? Where he was the 9th highest scoring RB?

 

Just checking. 

TD dependent on those last 7 games Tao. Pit game was a clear anomaly. It makes for a suspect floor for a supposed set and forget RB, particularly in PPR. 

 

He's solid but you are paying a high premium for him this year.  I personally think his draft day value is driven by crazy RB inflation for mid-tier backs.

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21 minutes ago, Magoo said:

TD dependent on those last 7 games Tao. Pit game was a clear anomaly. It makes for a suspect floor for a supposed set and forget RB, particularly in PPR. 

 

He's solid but you are paying a high premium for him this year.  I personally think his draft day value is driven by crazy RB inflation for mid-tier backs.

 

TD dependent? I mean I did the numbers right in front of you. 272 Carries, 1033 Yards, 46 Rec and 352 Yards is nothing to sneeze at. That’d be RB23 with literally 0 TDs. A measily 6 and you’re at 174.5, which is a half point away from Hyde. 

 

I have a Ravens fan who I consider reasonable and intelligent and mostly non-biased who thinks Collins is a first rounder. I don’t think, with the volume and production he put up at the end of last year, that that’s all that crazy.

 

I have him behind Freeman/McCaffery/Howard but in front of every other back at this point including Mixon and McKinnon in 1/2 Point PPR, so obviously I don’t agree with your draft day evaluation assessment. People are complaining about RB2... if he’s my RB1 with two elite WRs I’m not crying too much.

 

FWIW, the Ravens went 5-2 last year in those 7 games that Collins got the rock. They lost two divisional games by a total of 4-5 points.

 

Bold because I think that’s an important fact that people aren’t really getting about the Ravens in the Collins/Dixon dynamic. Collins did a lot for the Ravens last year and I don’t think what

yoh earn on the football field like that gets forgotten. I have him projected for something like 245 Carries, 1150 Yards, 9 TDs, 35 Rec, 295 Yards, 1 TD, 2 Fumbles. That would be just as good as Leonard Fournette in Standard (RB8) in terms of 2017. If he actually gets closer to his post-bye volume I’d expect another 30/150, 10/80, and bring him up closer to RB6ish. 

 

But again main point is that TD dependent really isn’t that fair when you look at his yardage totals realistically, and I also believe he should get around 10 TDs and be a strong RZ weapon as he was last year

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4 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

TD dependent? I mean I did the numbers right in front of you. 272 Carries, 1033 Yards, 46 Rec and 352 Yards is nothing to sneeze at. That’d be RB23 with literally 0 TDs. A measily 6 and you’re at 174.5, which is a half point away from Hyde. 

 

I have a Ravens fan who I consider reasonable and intelligent and mostly non-biased who thinks Collins is a first rounder. I don’t think, with the volume and production he put up at the end of last year, that that’s all that crazy.

 

I have him behind Freeman/McCaffery/Howard but in front of every other back at this point including Mixon and McKinnon in 1/2 Point PPR, so obviously I don’t agree with your draft day evaluation assessment. People are complaining about RB2... if he’s my RB1 with two elite WRs I’m not crying too much.

 

FWIW, the Ravens went 5-2 last year in those 7 games that Collins got the rock. They lost two divisional games by a total of 4-5 points.

 

Bold because I think that’s an important fact that people aren’t really getting about the Ravens in the Collins/Dixon dynamic. Collins did a lot for the Ravens last year and I don’t think what

yoh earn on the football field like that gets forgotten. I have him projected for something like 245 Carries, 1150 Yards, 9 TDs, 35 Rec, 295 Yards, 1 TD, 2 Fumbles. That would be just as good as Leonard Fournette in Standard (RB8) in terms of 2017. If he actually gets closer to his post-bye volume I’d expect another 30/150, 10/80, and bring him up closer to RB6ish. 

 

But again main point is that TD dependent really isn’t that fair when you look at his yardage totals realistically, and I also believe he should get around 10 TDs and be a strong RZ weapon as he was last year

I was referring to those last 7 games not your projections.

 

You are making the classic mistake of overrating season long numbers for mid-tier RBs.  FF is still mostly a week to week game for all RB save a few elite players.  

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6 minutes ago, Magoo said:

I was referring to those last 7 games not your projections.

 

You are making the classic mistake of overrating season long numbers for mid-tier RBs.  FF is still mostly a week to week game for all RB save a few elite players.  

 

Those numbers are not my projection they’re simply a 16 game version of what he did the final 7 weeks. And those numbers have nothing to do with my rankings over the last 7. He was the RB9 last year in the last 7 weeks. That is a fact.

 

 https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/reports/leaders/rb.php?year=2017&start=11&end=17

 

 

 

But you’re just being silly now. How am I supposed to respond to your clueing me in on my “classic mistake.”

 

I think Collins is better than you. I think he’s more skilled than you. I think his role is better than you. You can drum up a thousand reasons or silly simple rules but they’re all nonsense and meaningless because I believe in the player. You’re acting like this argument is about something different like I fundamentally don’t understand how fantasy football works and that’s just nonsense. I like the player better. That’s all there is to it. 

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1 minute ago, taobball said:

 

Those numbers are not my projection they’re simply a 16 game version of what he did the final 7 weeks. And those numbers have nothing to do with my rankings over the last 7. He was the RB9 last year in the last 7 weeks. That is a fact.

 

 https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/reports/leaders/rb.php?year=2017&start=11&end=17

 

 

 

But you’re just being silly now. How am I supposed to respond to your clueing me in on my “classic mistake.”

 

I think Collins is better than you. I think he’s more skilled than you. I think his role is better than you. You can drum up a thousand reasons or silly simple rules but they’re all nonsense and meaningless because I believe in the player. You’re acting like this argument is about something different like I fundamentally don’t understand how fantasy football works and that’s just nonsense. I like the player better. That’s all there is to it. 

None of those are my arguments. And I never said you don't understand how FF works.  Just that you are making a very common mistake. 

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