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David Johnson 2018 Outlook

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[Automated message: This outlook thread for the 2018 season will be locked on 2019-01-31. Please finish any 2018 discussions here, and take any 2019 outlook discussions to the 2019 outlook thread . If one does not exist, feel free to create one. Thanks!]

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tonycpsu

[Automated message: This outlook thread for the 2018 season will be locked on 2019-01-31. Please finish any 2018 discussions here, and take any 2019 outlook discussions to the 2019 outlook thread . If one does not exist, feel free to create one. Thanks!]

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tonycpsu

[Thread for previous season automatically locked. Feel free to post a new thread for 2019.]

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2 minutes ago, Fort4242 said:

Couldn't you have said the same thing in 2016?  AZ had no threat outside of Fitz in 2016 as well.  JJ Nelson, John Brown, Michael Floyd, Jermaine Gresham....not much top end talent here either.

 

the O line in 2016 wasn't that good either.  I see this team as very similar to the 2016 team, except one caveat....

 

I think the biggest difference between 2016 and this year is the coach - Bruce Arians is gone.  Steve Wilks is the head coach, and he has been a defense guy, so I imagine the flow of the offense will go through Mike McCoy.  Historically, McCoy led offenses have been in top half in passing offense (Yards, Attempts, TDs - outside of 2011 w/ Tebow) and have been middle to low in rushing production (Finished #1 in attempts and yards once, in 2011 with Tebow).

 

In 2016 when DJ had his crazy year, Arizona was top in the league in passing (#3 in attempts and #9 in yards) but the rushing numbers weren't that high (#21 in attempts and #18 in yards).  This kind of matches up with McCoy's history as well - productive passing numbers and mid-tier rushing numbers. 

 

I don't expect AZ to be an elite team by any stretch, especially in that division.  But I expect them to be 7-9/8-8, and be competitive in most games.  Either way, DJ is script proof because of his proficiency in the passing game.    

 

 

 

I'd take Carson Palmer and those receivers over Bradford and the current group all day.

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12 minutes ago, sportsfreak2744 said:

 

I'd take Carson Palmer and those receivers over Bradford and the current group all day.

I like Palmer > Bradford, but only slightly.  If you could guarantee 16 games of Bradford, you probably get top 15 QB play at least.  People tend to discredit Bradford, but he's a very good QB when he plays.  I don't think the supporting cast is too significantly different, so all together I might call it a wash.  We're talking small preferences here though.  I don't think anyone can say the 2016 squad was "leaps and bounds" better than the 2018 line up.  If anything, 2016 MIGHT have been marginally better IMO.

 

The biggest thing that stood out though was in 2016, during DJs historic run, the Cardinals were still only 21st in rushing attempts, and 18th in rushing yards.  The thing that propelled DJ to elite tier, was his passing game usage.  That isn't going to change this year.  I can def see 100+ targets again this year for DJ, even if the team is terrible.  

 

Look at San Diego in 2015.  Mike McCoy was the head coach, and San Diego was terrible (4-12).  RBs still got ~170 targets that year.  Even if AZ is worse than I think, and goes 5-11/6-10 DJ is still going to be very involved in the passing game, and will still clean up in PPR.  20 TDs won't happen again, but 12 total?  Absolutely can see that.  

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16 minutes ago, Fort4242 said:

I like Palmer > Bradford, but only slightly.  If you could guarantee 16 games of Bradford, you probably get top 15 QB play at least.  People tend to discredit Bradford, but he's a very good QB when he plays.  I don't think the supporting cast is too significantly different, so all together I might call it a wash.  We're talking small preferences here though.  I don't think anyone can say the 2016 squad was "leaps and bounds" better than the 2018 line up.  If anything, 2016 MIGHT have been marginally better IMO.

 

The biggest thing that stood out though was in 2016, during DJs historic run, the Cardinals were still only 21st in rushing attempts, and 18th in rushing yards.  The thing that propelled DJ to elite tier, was his passing game usage.  That isn't going to change this year.  I can def see 100+ targets again this year for DJ, even if the team is terrible.  

 

Look at San Diego in 2015.  Mike McCoy was the head coach, and San Diego was terrible (4-12).  RBs still got ~170 targets that year.  Even if AZ is worse than I think, and goes 5-11/6-10 DJ is still going to be very involved in the passing game, and will still clean up in PPR.  20 TDs won't happen again, but 12 total?  Absolutely can see that.  

 

Can't disagree with really anything that you argue here.  And really good insight on how McCoy might approach this year.

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1 hour ago, sportsfreak2744 said:

 

Can't disagree with really anything that you argue here.  And really good insight on how McCoy might approach this year.

Thanks bro.  New offenses are always tough to project but with a guy like McCoy he's got enough of a sample size.  But who the hell really knows 

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It is only slightly overdoing it to say that Bruce Arians is an offensive mastermind.  It is definitely true that McCoy has failed often wherever he has been.

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Do you guys think the current group of WR hurts or helps Johnson in the receiving department?  Do you think he will get more work, or will they just kill drives?

 

I just looked at Arizona and saw Greg Little.  I can't believe that guy is on an NFL roster.  I remember having him in fantasy as a fill in 6 years ago.

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2 hours ago, Sternes said:

Do you guys think the current group of WR hurts or helps Johnson in the receiving department?  Do you think he will get more work, or will they just kill drives?

 

I just looked at Arizona and saw Greg Little.  I can't believe that guy is on an NFL roster.  I remember having him in fantasy as a fill in 6 years ago.

 

U srs? Greg Little had a few productive weeks off the waiver scrap heap iirc.

 

Haven't heard that name for a bit...

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1 hour ago, Maroney's Bolgna said:

 

U srs? Greg Little had a few productive weeks off the waiver scrap heap iirc.

 

Haven't heard that name for a bit...

 

 

kdzw08x.jpg

 

 

Last time he caught a pass was 2014.  Supposedly doing well in camp and opening some eyes.  You can chalk it up to camp hype, but the fact they are even mentioning his name must mean he is doing something in camp.  The fact the guy is still in shape and trying to get on a team is certainly a good sign compared to guys who have eaten themselves out of the league. 

 

Little, 29, has drawn the praise of first-year head coach Steve Wilks. “We’ve all seen his skill-set over the years,” Wilks said. “For whatever reason, he’s bounced around, he can’t find a home. He’s very talented. To be honest, he probably realizes this is his only and last opportunity.

 

If he has fixed his hands he could be football relevant but likely not fantasy.  He was a RB at first in college before switching to WR.  I remember reading some stat, I believe it was after his rookie year that he had the most missed tackles of any WR. Ahhh, I found the article, or at least one with the stat I was looking for. 

 

https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/fantasy-rookie-reflection-%e2%80%93-greg-little

 

Another reason for the frustration with Little’s drops are the fact that when he did get the ball in his hands, he usually did a nice job of making people miss. His 17 missed tackles forced ranked #1 overall for NFL wide receivers. In fact, Greg Little had the same number of forced missed tackles as running backs Ray Rice and Darren Sproles. This number is even more eye-popping when you consider the fact that Ray Rice and Darren Sproles touched the ball on offense 414 and 205 times respectively, compared to just 64 touches (61 catches, 3 carries) for Greg Little.

 

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I got a woody from watching those 2 runs from DJ! So excited to see his production this year!

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3 hours ago, sberko1243 said:

I got a woody from watching those 2 runs from DJ! So excited to see his production this year!

Thank you for sharing your arousal in 2 different topics. Do you want a tissue?

d22db539ca17c96cb9e3e7b98493e7c6.gif

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Just to refresh everyone’s memory...

 

In 2016, DJ had 293 attempts for 1293 yards and 16 TDs.. He also had 80 receptions for 879 yards and 4 TDs. 

 

Those are absolutely stupid numbers. DJ is the best receiving back in football. 

 

Don’t overthink this. Assuming health (which is the case with anyone), DJ is in play to be the overall RB1. If he’s there at pick 3 I’m gladly taking him. 

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13 minutes ago, wtb88 said:

Just to refresh everyone’s memory...

 

In 2016, DJ had 293 attempts for 1293 yards and 16 TDs.. He also had 80 receptions for 879 yards and 4 TDs. 

 

Those are absolutely stupid numbers. DJ is the best receiving back in football. 

 

Don’t overthink this. Assuming health (which is the case with anyone), DJ is in play to be the overall RB1. If he’s there at pick 3 I’m gladly taking him. 

 

I totally agree. He's gonna get his regardless of the situation there, he's that good. There's nothing to think about. If he's there grab him. I hear people saying they'd take Saquon over DJ. That's ridiculous!

 

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4 hours ago, wtb88 said:

Just to refresh everyone’s memory...

 

In 2016, DJ had 293 attempts for 1293 yards and 16 TDs.. He also had 80 receptions for 879 yards and 4 TDs. 

 

Those are absolutely stupid numbers. DJ is the best receiving back in football. 

 

Don’t overthink this. Assuming health (which is the case with anyone), DJ is in play to be the overall RB1. If he’s there at pick 3 I’m gladly taking him. 

 

Assuming Gurley and Bell are 1 and 2, it is a tough choice between dj and zeke.

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1 minute ago, kp96 said:

 

Assuming Gurley and Bell are 1 and 2, it is a tough choice between dj and zeke.

I take dj because of his involvement in the passing game as well.

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4 hours ago, wtb88 said:

Just to refresh everyone’s memory...

 

In 2016, DJ had 293 attempts for 1293 yards and 16 TDs.. He also had 80 receptions for 879 yards and 4 TDs. 

 

Those are absolutely stupid numbers. DJ is the best receiving back in football. 

 

Don’t overthink this. Assuming health (which is the case with anyone), DJ is in play to be the overall RB1. If he’s there at pick 3 I’m gladly taking him. 

Exactly. Let's say the offense being bad hurts DJ and he backs up 20%- u still get 1000 rush yards, 13tds, 60 receptions, 700 reception yards and 3 more TDs. He finishes only behind 2017 Gurley and bell and basically equal to Kamara with these points. That's pretty solid with DJ at 80%. 

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Last night pretty much answered any questions about whether DJ is back.  

 

I think I’m still taking him 4th though.   Zeke is really gonna have to be a hoss for Dallas.

Edited by Impreza178
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For me Gurley definitely won’t replicate last year, cooks is in town, Goff now has more weapons and will be throwing more this year

 

bell another 1 that will not get 400 touches this year like he did last

 

for me it’s dj and Zeke that I believe will finish 1 and 2 as rbs , they have more fresh legs and will be force fed touches because both of their respective teams are not elite offenses

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I was hoping the negative outlook on AZ’s offense and Barkley hype pushes DJ down to me at 6. Doubt it after last night though. 

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35 minutes ago, yahyahtrick said:

I was hoping the negative outlook on AZ’s offense and Barkley hype pushes DJ down to me at 6. Doubt it after last night though. 

I was also hoping for the same. Then those runs last night squashed the DJ doubt. I expect him locked in to the top-5 now.

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2 hours ago, Brye said:

For me Gurley definitely won’t replicate last year, cooks is in town, Goff now has more weapons and will be throwing more this year

 

bell another 1 that will not get 400 touches this year like he did last

 

for me it’s dj and Zeke that I believe will finish 1 and 2 as rbs , they have more fresh legs and will be force fed touches because both of their respective teams are not elite offenses

 

Bleh.  You can also make the argument that because there are no other weapons in Dallas or Arizona that zeke and dj will face 8 man boxes every game and be double covered out of the backfield.  It works both ways.

 

Top 4 pick is great this year.  All 4 top backs look real strong.

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In case anyone missed his 2 rushes for 28 yards:

 

 

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21 minutes ago, PackerBacker555 said:

I think all major rbs have questions this year. That’s why it’s hard for me to choose. 

 

Yes, certainly difficult to see one standout.

 

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