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David Johnson 2018 Outlook

tonycpsu

[Automated message: This outlook thread for the 2018 season will be locked on 2019-01-31. Please finish any 2018 discussions here, and take any 2019 outlook discussions to the 2019 outlook thread . If one does not exist, feel free to create one. Thanks!]

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tonycpsu

[Automated message: This outlook thread for the 2018 season will be locked on 2019-01-31. Please finish any 2018 discussions here, and take any 2019 outlook discussions to the 2019 outlook thread . If one does not exist, feel free to create one. Thanks!]

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tonycpsu

[Thread for previous season automatically locked. Feel free to post a new thread for 2019.]

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I'm think i'm going to offer Diggs for DJ and see if I can get a bite.  I need a late season bloomer runningback hope to hang dreams on.

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3 hours ago, Singing in Dwayne said:

 

He's an RB1. On the lower end of the spectrum, but I'd rate him as an RB1. He put up 14 points without a TD today. That wasn't possible before the coaching change. 

 

He might technically finish as an RB1 at RB10 - RB12 but there’s a big difference between him and set it and forget it guys in the Hunt/Kamara/Gordon/Conner Tier.

 

Saying he’s an “RB1” is basically semantics and it’s probably better to think of him as an RB2 that you shouldn’t be afraid of benching for guys like Mack or Chubb depending on the matchup

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The thing I’m most ecstatic about is that this next week is his Bye week so I can bench him. This guy (his situation) has been a cancer to my team. 

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Maybe I'm in the minority here but if doing absolutely nothing nets me a 14 point ppr floor.....I'm good with that. He scores a cheap TD and I guarantee this thread has a totally different vibe. The fickleness on these forums is real. He's not the guy you drafted, so what. We're half way through these season now, the draft doesn't matter. He's at least healthy and getting consistent touches. Think about having Bell, Cook, Fournette, Howard, Ingram, Shady, Freeman etc etc etc. IMO we've seen him at his worst so far. If you thought they were going to come out the first week after McCoy leaves and be the Arians Cardinals then that's on you. Give them the bye to implement some things and get healthy, and then let's see if things start turning around......or sell him for pennies on the dollar. Your choice

Edited by Joe Odam
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I don't get the hate here in PPR:

 

17.7

6.1

16.1

18.2

21.1

12.9

10

14

 

If that's killing your team then you drafted bad. Sure he's not a top 3 overall pick like you envisioned, but he's not doing horrible by any means. 

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3 minutes ago, scheibler said:

I don't get the hate here in PPR:

 

17.7

6.1

16.1

18.2

21.1

12.9

10

14

 

If that's killing your team then you drafted bad. Sure he's not a top 3 overall pick like you envisioned, but he's not doing horrible by any means. 

 

indeed and even in standard imo

 

he is not the reason your teams are doing bad if they in fact are

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For how bad DJ has been at least he's consistently putting up 10-15 points. He won't return first round value but be glad you have him instead of guys like cook, fournette, howard, etc

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1 hour ago, pjbyrne707 said:

For how bad DJ has been at least he's consistently putting up 10-15 points. He won't return first round value but be glad you have him instead of guys like cook, fournette, howard, etc

Yup agreed. Looking forward too week 10 against Kansas City might be a little better

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DJ was RB10 with a historically bad/one dimensional play caller, and against a much tougher schedule. Now he has a Bruce Arians disciple calling plays and probably the easiest RB schedule going forward. The guy didn’t blow up this week by any means, but he still had 100 yards! If THAT is his floor going forward, then awesome! They have the bye week to continue working things out, and the upside is totally there. He can easily finish as a mid range RB1 if he was able to sustain 10 production under prior circumstances. 

Edited by Lebowski54

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3 minutes ago, Members_Only_76 said:

Anyone else think DJ doesn't look the same? 

 

Hard to tell when all I see/read is “D.Johnson rushes up the middle for 3 yards.”  Rinse, repeat.

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18 hours ago, dakimbell said:

Yep! There is just only so much you can do with this bad of an oline and a rookie qb. DJ has had 2 middling games in great matchups the last 2 weeks, only good news is matchups are mostly good, but anyone thinking he is going to be a weekly rb1 is being unrealistic here

In standard, I would prefer a player like Sony Michel (when healthy) in a split role with James White on a high scoring offense rather than David Johnson on a bad offense.  There haven't been many scoring opportunities for DJ and he was the beneficiary of a really high percentage of the team's TDs.  Last couple games without TD's was regression to the mean for him.  Going into yesterday's game, they had almost the same # of points per game (standard) and that's with Sony just getting into game shape during his first couple of games.  

Parcell's used to say, "you are what your record says you are."  Same thing goes in fantasy.  DJ, in this offense, is not what he was.  He's right now a low end RB1 or high end RB2 in standard.  He still has a chance to turn it around, but his ceiling is kind of limited by the offense.

 

There were some posts earlier criticizing a guy who was going to Tarik Cohen over DJ this week.  If all you care about is the points scored, he wasn't wrong... 

Edited by rocket

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6 hours ago, Members_Only_76 said:

Anyone else think DJ doesn't look the same? 

Yes. In what little I've actually seen him pay this year, he just doesn't look to have the same explosiveness. Of course, the play calling is so horrendous that it's hard to get a good gauge. 

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32 minutes ago, The G Man said:

Yes. In what little I've actually seen him pay this year, he just doesn't look to have the same explosiveness. Of course, the play calling is so horrendous that it's hard to get a good gauge. 

 

I agree, just doesn't seem as decisive (which may be why he's not looking explosive either). I haven't seen that acceleration/speed that we saw a couple years ago.

 

On a couple/few plays yesterday I got excited at the start of the play because DJ got the ball with space, but then he didn't do as much as I thought he could've.

 

I thought this game would get me excited, it didn't, actually the opposite. I'm more concerned now than before actually.

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31 minutes ago, Members_Only_76 said:

 

I agree, just doesn't seem as decisive (which may be why he's not looking explosive either). I haven't seen that acceleration/speed that we saw a couple years ago.

 

On a couple/few plays yesterday I got excited at the start of the play because DJ got the ball with space, but then he didn't do as much as I thought he could've.

 

I thought this game would get me excited, it didn't, actually the opposite. I'm more concerned now than before actually.

Yeah part of it might be that it's hard to keep going at things 100% when you know your team sucks and aren't going anywhere this season.

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Just now, Kyle87 said:

Yeah part of it might be that it's hard to keep going at things 100% when you know your team sucks and aren't going anywhere this season.

 

DJ doesn't strike as that type. There could be some of that subconsciously (human nature or something).

 

Kirk looks fast/explosive for example, but DJ just hasn't shown the "burst" he had before.

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It's hard to accelerate directly into an immovable object I'm told. When in space he still looks plenty electric. He has never looked like he's a "high motor" runner. He glides a lot like Kamara/A Foster which at times makes it look like he's not even trying. He's good to go. His surrounding cast.....welllllllll:mellow:

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The thing that worries me is the fact he hasn’t had even ONE 30+ yard rush this season. I know his team and support cast is terrible, but the fact that he gets 15+ rushes a game and hasn’t turned even one into a big gain makes me think he’s lost a step. Even guys in bad situations manage to get big yards occasionally, especially if they play the 49ers twice. If I hadn’t seen his 2016 season, I would honestly evaluate his talent in the same group as Howard or A.Jones. Maybe Bruce was that good, but so far nothing about his play has shown me he’s an elite rb even in better situation

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15 minutes ago, Jrt80 said:

The thing that worries me is the fact he hasn’t had even ONE 30+ yard rush this season. I know his team and support cast is terrible, but the fact that he gets 15+ rushes a game and hasn’t turned even one into a big gain makes me think he’s lost a step. Even guys in bad situations manage to get big yards occasionally, especially if they play the 49ers twice. If I hadn’t seen his 2016 season, I would honestly evaluate his talent in the same group as Howard or A.Jones. Maybe Bruce was that good, but so far nothing about his play has shown me he’s an elite rb even in better situation

 

Hard to get 30 yards when coaching staff runs you into a stacked box 15 times a game.  He has had chunk gains outside, only runs or catches passes outside 3-5 times a game.

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18 minutes ago, Jrt80 said:

The thing that worries me is the fact he hasn’t had even ONE 30+ yard rush this season. I know his team and support cast is terrible, but the fact that he gets 15+ rushes a game and hasn’t turned even one into a big gain makes me think he’s lost a step. Even guys in bad situations manage to get big yards occasionally, especially if they play the 49ers twice. If I hadn’t seen his 2016 season, I would honestly evaluate his talent in the same group as Howard or A.Jones. Maybe Bruce was that good, but so far nothing about his play has shown me he’s an elite rb even in better situation

 

Defense has too many men around the LOS for DJ to get past the second level.  Focus on stopping DJ and you beat the Cards.  

 

When he was successful, Palmer was keeping defense honest with bombs to JJ or Smokey with Fitz underneath.  Completely different dynamic and apparently DJ cant really create on his own in terms of tons of juke moves like Hunt or Bell. 

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End of the day this guy is producing solid rb2 numbers with a terrible offense and still has rb1 upside if suddenly something clicks in Arizona....although the latter may be a long shot 

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I think we're assuming too much based off the first week from an OC change. 

 

The most annoying thing I saw was that Rosen seems perfectly content forcing it downfield rather than dumping it off to DJ for the easy yards. On the other hand Rosen making successful throws downfield helps to open up the run game.

 

Hoping the bye week can give the offense more time to figure out their identity going forward and I'm hoping that involves more Barkley type usage for DJ.

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19 minutes ago, street sharks said:

I think we're assuming too much based off the first week from an OC change. 

 

The most annoying thing I saw was that Rosen seems perfectly content forcing it downfield rather than dumping it off to DJ for the easy yards. On the other hand Rosen making successful throws downfield helps to open up the run game.

 

Hoping the bye week can give the offense more time to figure out their identity going forward and I'm hoping that involves more Barkley type usage for DJ.

I mentioned this in the Chubb thread.  First year QB's don't seem to check down to the RB that often.  I could be wrong but it really seems that way to me.

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On 10/30/2018 at 1:05 PM, street sharks said:

I think we're assuming too much based off the first week from an OC change. 

 

The most annoying thing I saw was that Rosen seems perfectly content forcing it downfield rather than dumping it off to DJ for the easy yards. On the other hand Rosen making successful throws downfield helps to open up the run game.

 

Hoping the bye week can give the offense more time to figure out their identity going forward and I'm hoping that involves more Barkley type usage for DJ.

100% agree.  Rosen seems to be forcing it downfield even if it isn't there.  Seasoned QBs take what the defense gives.  Part of problem is he needs to be coached to use the RB as safety valve.  Or OC needs to start making DJ the first read for Rosen.  

 

No idea why they can't utilize DJ same way teams use Barkley, Gurley, Kamara.  Even Conner getting better work and DJ is much better talent than Conner.

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