The 7th Beatles

Odell Beckham Jr. 2018 Outlook

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This situation seems similar to one a few weeks ago regarding whether it would be better for the Browns to use a top 5 pick on S Barclay or trade down.

 

In the Giants case, I think they are doing exactly the right thing at the moment: ask for max value. No one is going to bite on the first price the Giants throw out there and all will  want to wait and see if serial-blockhead OBJ is disruptive enough over the next few months that the Giants lower their price.

 

That said, the Giants may want to dump him now. They do have a lot of leverage but that leverage decreases with each passing day. Next year, they will have to tag him. That makes it tougher to move him and lowers the price. Teams also know the following year the price will be even lower. Plus, OBJ is a diva and a dope. He may be a disruption in the locker room and is always at risk of suspension.

 

The Giants have a lot of needs on offense right now and holes to fill on defense too. Even if they do hit on a QB-of-the-future in the draft this year, they need to build around him and getting, say, two first round picks from the Rams might be a good way to do that. They will definitely need the draft ammo if they do not have a QB they like/hit on this year.

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5 minutes ago, FreakFries said:

This situation seems similar to one a few weeks ago regarding whether it would be better for the Browns to use a top 5 pick on S Barclay or trade down.

 

In the Giants case, I think they are doing exactly the right thing at the moment: ask for max value. No one is going to bite on the first price the Giants throw out there and all will  want to wait and see if serial-blockhead OBJ is disruptive enough over the next few months that the Giants lower their price.

 

That said, the Giants may want to dump him now. They do have a lot of leverage but that leverage decreases with each passing day. Next year, they will have to tag him. That makes it tougher to move him and lowers the price. Teams also know the following year the price will be even lower. Plus, OBJ is a diva and a dope. He may be a disruption in the locker room and is always at risk of suspension.

 

The Giants have a lot of needs on offense right now and holes to fill on defense too. Even if they do hit on a QB-of-the-future in the draft this year, they need to build around him and getting, say, two first round picks from the Rams might be a good way to do that. They will definitely need the draft ammo if they do not have a QB they like/hit on this year.

 

His teammates loves him ... the locker room cancer is nonsense - like most of the story 

 

Odell wants to be the highest paid player in the NFL - ridiculous, especially coming off an injury riddled worst pro season.

 

 

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18 minutes ago, CyberneticGhostOfXMasPast said:

 

Would you like to elaborate more on exclusive or non-exclusive rights tags? 

 

Heres the cliff notes : 

 

1. The Giants own him. No fines? Cool. No salary either and no stats / performance.

 

2. Any team that pays him has to give 1st rounders 

 

Have a lovely Thursday 

What’s with the lovely Thursday stuff?  Lol

Lets just have a respectful debate like we usually do.  

 

I’ll elaborate:  

lets say Beckham decides to hold out in 2018...rather than risk upwards of 40-50M guaranteed.   He will incur fines as he is under contract.    But we both know those won’t be a deterrent because he has money coming in either way.   Most players cant afford a season off without damaging their value and going broke.   OBJ is not in this group- his talent is unquestioned and he’s young with alternative sources of income.   

 

2019-  NYG franchise tag him.   He refuses to sign.   It doesn’t matter which tag you attempt to apply...all 3 can be refused and the player sits out the season- becoming UFA the following season.  This would be TERRIBLE for the giants as they would lose him for nothing.   

 

TL:DR

One season is the longest he would have to sit out unless the Giants are willing to let him walk for nothing- just to spite him.  

 

Edited by Impreza178
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38 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:

 

There are no fines after the 2018 season- as he’s not under contract.  Might want to familiarize yourself with how the franchise tag works.    

 

Of course it’s all a strategy to get a new contract-  that’s obvious.   Either in NY or elsewhere. 

 

Yeah I thnk some here are getting too caught up in the thinking that negotiations are all about who has 'leverage'. Negotiations are about 2 parties reaching an agreeable compromise where both walk away with what they believe is a fair deal. Leverage is not the goal of a negotiation, agreement is.

 

The NYG and OBJ are both well aware of what the other side is capable of doing. What makes OBJ's situation unique is that unlike other guys playing on their rookie contracts he doesnt have the pressure of financial constraints in his negotiations because he has lucrative endorsement income. He has the OPTION of sitting out whereas most players on their 1st contracts do not have that as a viable option. So yes he does have some leverage for those who want to think in those terms

 

OBJ wants guaranteed money on a long term deal that immediately makes him the highest paid wr in the game but he has an injury history and behavioral problems that are disruptive to the organization  which can minimize his guaranteed amount and make his contract complicated with performance and morality clauses. headline numbers are easy to achieve it's the guaranteed money  and how you get to the headline number that is always the sticking point.

 

The thing is no one knows what the NYG mgmt really wants in terms of an end game a the moment, they have multiple options as an organization, are they rebuilding or do they think they have a shot to play for a title this season?

Is OBJ more valuable to them playing in a NYG uniform or as a trade piece in terms of their plans over the next 1-6yrs? 

 

Acrimonious results never benefit either party in a contract, if you jam OBJ with a bad deal the organization faces the risk that he will be unhappy and eventually a cancer in the lockeroom and that hurts a franchise more than trading away a disgruntled stud. 

 

Understanding the incentives and benefits that your negotiating partner will achieve from an agreement is a better construct than focusing on the 'leverage' you have vs the leverage they have.

Edited by dashoe
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9 minutes ago, dashoe said:

 

Yeah I thnk some here are getting too caught up in the thinking that negotiations are all about who has 'leverage'. Negotiations are about 2 parties reaching an agreeable compromise where both walk away with what they believe is a fair deal. Leverage is not the goal of a negotiation, agreement is.

 

The NYG and OBJ are both well aware of what the other side is capable of doing. What makes OBJ's situation unique is that unlike other guys playing on their rookie contracts he doesnt have the pressure of financial constraints in his negotiations because he has lucrative endorsement income. He has the OPTION of sitting out whereas most players on their 1st contracts do not have that as a viable option. So yes he does have some leverage for those who want to think in those terms

 

OBJ wants guaranteed money on a long term deal that immediately makes him the highest paid wr in the game but he has an injury history and behavioral problems that are disruptive to the organization  which can minimize his guaranteed amount and make his contract complicated with performance and morality clauses. headline numbers are easy to achieve it's the guaranteed money  and how you get to the headline number that is always the sticking point.

 

The thing is no one knows what the NYG mgmt really wants in terms of an end game a the moment, they have multiple options as an organization, are they rebuilding or do they think they have a shot to play for a title this season?

Is OBJ more valuable to them playing in a NYG uniform or as a trade piece in terms of their plans over the next 1-6yrs? 

 

Acrimonious results never benefit either party in a contract, if you jam OBJ with a bad deal the organization faces the risk that he will be unhappy and eventually a cancer in the lockeroom and that hurts a franchise more than trading away a disgruntled stud. 

He missed a whole year basically with his ankle and now you think its a " viable" option for him to voluntarily sit out another year.. I'm sure Nike and all of his managers and agents would love that and advise that obviously sound business decision great marketing. I tend to agree with everything else you said though, that being said its tough to tell if hes more valuable in their plans or not they have so many moving parts right now in regards to who they are drafting etc. I also find it a little hard to comprehend how people don't seem to realize Odell's camp is probably leaking a lot of this information.. notice how the pizza coke weed whatever debacle is not even a headline anymore his publicists and management did a solid job with that and have put a little pressure back on the Giants. 

Edited by NyCro
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I think Giants mgmt really crapped the bed on this one. I think they tried playing a game of chicken by saying they would want something "outrageous" for OBJ for 1.) to put the pressure on OBJ and 2.) ensure that no team makes an adequate offer.

 

Well now they got offers, and OBJ is not afraid to leave NYG, sit out a season, etc. They lost their leverage fully. 

 

 

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4 minutes ago, NyCro said:

He missed a whole year basically with his ankle and now you think its a " viable" option for him to voluntarily sit out another year.. I'm sure Nike and all of his managers and agents would love that and advise that obviously sound business decision great marketing. I tend to agree with everything else you said though, that being said its tough to tell if hes more valuable in their plans or not they have so many moving parts right now in regards to who they are drafting etc. I also find it a little hard to comprehend how people don't seem to realize Odell's camp is probably leaking a lot of this information.. notice how the pizza coke weed whatever debacle is not even a headline anymore his publicists and management did a solid job with that and have put a little pressure back on the Giants. 

Good point. I didn't think this story had much weight and it could be that Odell/giants did this to distract from the Odell mishap 

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2 minutes ago, NyCro said:

He missed a whole year basically with his ankle and now you think its a " viable" option for him to voluntarily sit out another year.. I'm sure Nike and all of his managers and agents would love that and advise that obviously sound business decision great marketing. I tend to agree with everything else you said though, that being said its tough to tell if hes more valuable in their plans or not they have so many moving parts right now in regards to who they are drafting etc. I also find it a little hard to comprehend how people don't seem to realize Odell's camp is probably leaking a lot of this information.. notice how the pizza coke weed whatever debacle is not even a headline anymore his publicists and management did a solid job with that and have put a little pressure back on the Giants.

 

What if he breaks his ankle again, tears an ACL, or suffers multiple concussions?    

 

Would that hurt his value more than sitting out, posting workout clips of him looking dominant?

 

Have to consider these things.   He has zero protection right now- which would be crazy of him to ignore.   

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13 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:

 

What if he breaks his ankle again, tears an ACL, or suffers multiple concussions?    

 

Would that hurt his value more than sitting out, posting workout clips of him looking dominant?

 

Have to consider these things.   He has zero protection right now- which would be crazy of him to ignore.   

Honestly I am shocked you're taking this stance its pretty ludicrous .. " sitting posting workout clips " I am  literally at a loss for words what to respond to that comment :lol:. Not even a feasible option the Giants are not even remotely scared by that option because there isn't a one percent chance of that happening 0, ZERO, CERO, UNO,JEDAN, UN, how many different languages can I write zero in... regardless of what you think or say sorry. * respect your opinion enjoyed the debate*  At the end of the day I think this is a bunch of smoke and they will make him the highest paid WR not sure I'm enthralled by that but it is what it is...

 

Have a wonderful Thursday!

Edited by NyCro

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3 minutes ago, NyCro said:

Honestly I am shocked you're taking this stance its pretty ludicrous .. " sitting posting workout clips " I am  literally at a loss for words what to respond to that comment :lol:. Not even a feasible option the Giants are not even remotely scared by that option because there isn't a one percent chance of that happening 0, ZERO, CERO, UNO,JEDAN, UN, how many different languages can I write zero in... regardless of what you think or say sorry. * respect your opinion enjoyed the debate*  At the end of the day I think this is a bunch of smoke and they will make him the highest paid WR not sure I'm enthralled by that but it is what it is...

 

Have a wonderful Thursday!

Well we can agree that it’s likely they either trade him now or re-sign him at the highest rate ever paid to a wr.  

 

There is ZERO chance Beckham plays on a one year 8M dollar deal.    If it takes sitting out a year using the tools he has available- so be it.   I have no doubt he will- and neither should the giants.   

 

 

 

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29 minutes ago, NyCro said:

He missed a whole year basically with his ankle and now you think its a " viable" option for him to voluntarily sit out another year.. I'm sure Nike and all of his managers and agents would love that and advise that obviously sound business decision great marketing. I tend to agree with everything else you said though, that being said its tough to tell if hes more valuable in their plans or not they have so many moving parts right now in regards to who they are drafting etc. I also find it a little hard to comprehend how people don't seem to realize Odell's camp is probably leaking a lot of this information.. notice how the pizza coke weed whatever debacle is not even a headline anymore his publicists and management did a solid job with that and have put a little pressure back on the Giants. 

 

yes it is viable because he has the means to do so and it is an option he can choose the question is would doing so be in his best interests.:huh:

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1 hour ago, NyCro said:

He missed a whole year basically with his ankle and now you think its a " viable" option for him to voluntarily sit out another year.. I'm sure Nike and all of his managers and agents would love that and advise that obviously sound business decision great marketing. I tend to agree with everything else you said though, that being said its tough to tell if hes more valuable in their plans or not they have so many moving parts right now in regards to who they are drafting etc. I also find it a little hard to comprehend how people don't seem to realize Odell's camp is probably leaking a lot of this information.. notice how the pizza coke weed whatever debacle is not even a headline anymore his publicists and management did a solid job with that and have put a little pressure back on the Giants. 

 

That is an excellent point.

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Book Odell for like 1400 yards and 15 touchdowns if he goes to the Rams. Goff took a huge leap last season and should improve as well this year. Definitely an upgrade over Eli Manning. Gurley a big time threat running the ball which will free up Beckham for huge plays and vice versa. Will be similar to Leveon Bell and Antonio Brown combo 

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6 minutes ago, ShowStopper said:

Book Odell for like 1400 yards and 15 touchdowns if he goes to the Rams. Goff took a huge leap last season and should improve as well this year. Definitely an upgrade over Eli Manning. Gurley a big time threat running the ball which will free up Beckham for huge plays and vice versa. Will be similar to Leveon Bell and Antonio Brown combo 

Goff is the 4th best QB in that division.. Hes playing with a stacked deck and a very good HC ( offensive coordinator) Odell can have those numbers on the Giants assuming the offensive line is out of the gutter this year.

Edited by NyCro

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2 hours ago, NyCro said:

 I also find it a little hard to comprehend how people don't seem to realize Odell's camp is probably leaking a lot of this information.. notice how the pizza coke weed whatever debacle is not even a headline anymore his publicists and management did a solid job with that and have put a little pressure back on the Giants. 

 

What exactly is there for his camp to leak? He is holding out and he wants to play for the rams? That's not what i would call a leak. 

A leak would be more in line with telling what the giants mgmt is offering odell in terms of a contract.

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1 minute ago, dashoe said:

 

What exactly is there for his camp to leak? He is holding out and he wants to play for the rams? That's not what i would call a leak. 

A leak would be more in line with telling what the giants mgmt is offering odell in terms of a contract.

You seem to think hes going to sit out the year.. I would love to hear some prime examples of top players following through with that ...................... I'm going to venture to say you're not a publicist nor do I feel like explaining myself into detail either. Since you're on the "viable" to sit out the season band wagon because the Giants have zero control and Odell does. Got it. Thank you for enlightening me I appreciate it.

 

Best,

NyCro

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16 minutes ago, NyCro said:

Goff is the 4th best QB in that division.. Hes playing with a stacked deck and a very good HC ( offensive coordinator) Odell can have those numbers on the Giants assuming the offensive line is out of the gutter this year.

2

 

LOL. Some people on these boards will throw out anything to try to validate a point they're making. Not with this post, but I find it interesting people think they're smart by creating strawman arguments and not actually talking about all angles of a topic.

SO. MANY.

Edited by ponza88
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12 minutes ago, NyCro said:

Goff is the 4th best QB in that division.. Hes playing with a stacked deck and a very good HC ( offensive coordinator) Odell can have those numbers on the Giants assuming the offensive line is out of the gutter this year.

 

thank you ... it really is insane how short sighted people have become. 1400/15 is pretty much what he did his first 3 seasons ... but apparently that's only possible with bust turned demi-god Goff. 

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Just now, NyCro said:

You seem to think hes going to sit out the year.. I would love to hear some prime examples of top players following through with that ...................... I'm going to venture to say you're not a publicist nor do I feel like explaining myself into detail either. Since you're on the "viable" to sit out the season band wagon because the Giants have zero control and Odell does. Got it. Thank you for enlightening me I appreciate it.

 

Best,

NyCro

 

You read too much into my posts. I have no conviction about him sitting out or even getting traded. I can see perfectly logical reasons why any of those situations can happen. What I do think is it's a bit silly to assume that only one outcome is the only outcome given the fluid business processes of the NFL.

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6 minutes ago, NyCro said:

You seem to think hes going to sit out the year.. I would love to hear some prime examples of top players following through with that ...................... I'm going to venture to say you're not a publicist nor do I feel like explaining myself into detail either. Since you're on the "viable" to sit out the season band wagon because the Giants have zero control and Odell does. Got it. Thank you for enlightening me I appreciate it.

 

Best,

NyCro

What's with this guy?

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16 minutes ago, NyCro said:

Goff is the 4th best QB in that division..

 

oh come on now.  Just as its been done throughout his entire career, this is giving wayyyyyy too much credit to the bum that is Sam Bradford.  He's still searching for ONE single season that matches Goff's 2017.  I think Goff has a good bit left to prove and improve upon, but its not like Jimmy G or Bradford have proven much of anything to sure fire vault them ahead of Goff in this division, IMO.

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4 minutes ago, CyberneticGhostOfXMasPast said:

Goff is not the 4th best QB in that division 

 

he's the 3rd best - thanks to Arizona [although talent is not Bradford's issue]


Goff is better than Jimmy & Bradford, RIGHT NOW. A couple more years playing in the NFL, in his new system... The verdict is still out on how much better he could be.

Definitely not true that he's the "4th best".

Edited by ponza88

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1 minute ago, ponza88 said:


Goff is better than Jimmy & Bradford, RIGHT NOW. A couple more years playing in the NFL, in his new system... The verdict is still out.

Definitely not true that he's the "4th best".

Agreed- not that this tangent is particularly relevant.   The Rams are THE BEST TEAM in that division and don’t have an established wr1.    

 

Odell would be a fantastic fit there given their win- now mindset.  (Or a massive explosion when they all kill each other in camp- either way- great tv!!).  

:D

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