Flyers_28

Allen Robinson 2018 Outlook

Recommended Posts

9 minutes ago, joshua18 said:

So overrated. People acting like he's healthy, Trubisky is good, and he's going to get 150+ targets. 

Where would you feel comfortable drafting Robinson?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

4 hours ago, ajs723 said:

So much so, that [Allen Robinson] put up the 2nd best deep threat season ever, in terms of 20+ yard plays. 

3rd actually, tied with Julio Jones.  And technically, Josh Gordon beat them both on a per game basis in 2013, managing 30 such catches in just 14 games vs their 31 on 16.

Calvin Johnson eclipsed them all, not once, but twice.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
19 minutes ago, FFCollusion said:

 

3rd actually, tied with Julio Jones.  And technically, Josh Gordon beat them both on a per game basis in 2013, managing 30 such catches in just 14 games vs their 31 on 16.

Calvin Johnson eclipsed them all, not once, but twice.

Good point. This thread is just making me miss the awesomeness that was Calvin Johnson. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, joshua18 said:

So overrated. People acting like he's healthy, Trubisky is good, and he's going to get 150+ targets. 

Sarcasm?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, FFCollusion said:

 

3rd actually, tied with Julio Jones.  And technically, Josh Gordon beat them both on a per game basis in 2013, managing 30 such catches in just 14 games vs their 31 on 16.

Calvin Johnson eclipsed them all, not once, but twice.

Lol...What does the number of games matter??  Once again, blinded by his own number crunching.

 

The critical scale is percentage of receptions (beyond a set threshold of course...say 50 recps?) that go over 20+ yards.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, Big Nate said:

Where would you feel comfortable drafting Robinson?

 

As the risky WR3 that he is...no sooner. 

 

The CHI defense is way too good to allow the garbage-time fueled stats that propelled Bortles, Robinson and Hurns in 2015. He's much closer to Braylon Edwards than to a truly elite WR. Plus he's still not 100% yet (limited in OTAs), I'm not sold on Trubisky, and the Reid coaching tree doesn't feed WR1s the 150+ targets Robinson has demonstrated requiring to be even a top-20 WR (and he didn't even do that in 2016 despite seeing 150+ targets). 

 

 

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, joshua18 said:

 

As the risky WR3 that he is...no sooner. 

 

The CHI defense is way too good to allow the garbage-time fueled stats that propelled Bortles, Robinson and Hurns in 2015. He's much closer to Braylon Edwards than to a truly elite WR. Plus he's still not 100% yet (limited in OTAs), I'm not sold on Trubisky, and the Reid coaching tree doesn't feed WR1s the 150+ targets Robinson has demonstrated requiring to be even a top-20 WR (and he didn't even do that in 2016 despite seeing 150+ targets). 

 

 

King of what has already happened.

  • Confused 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, psygolf said:

King of what has already happened.

 

I keep forgetting you're a Bears fan...shouldn't expect you to have rational expectations for A-Rob.  Good luck.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, joshua18 said:

 

I keep forgetting you're a Bears fan...shouldn't expect you to have rational expectations for A-Rob.  Good luck.

 

Lie.    And thank you...but you seem to have come across a prediction not made.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, psygolf said:

Lie.    And thank you...but you seem to have come across a prediction not made.

 

No, I really wish you good luck.  I hope Robinson proves me wrong about being Braylon Edwards 2.0, but he hasn't these past 2 seasons, and I'm sure not optimistic about him now. 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Agree that that chicagos d is good/underated. I think naggy is a much better OC too. Chicago is in a tough division though, so a case could be made for them being down a good bit. Without looking at their schedule I would guess they go 7-9/8-8 being competitive in most games. Arob is certainly talented but I’m not sure I buy the whole elite story. Why was he so bad after his breakout year? Did he get injured (serious question can’t remeber) and now he’s coming off an acl with a qb who had an awful first season(though he had awful weapons, think MT improves a good bit). I like high upside guys though, and Arob certainly is that. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
22 minutes ago, Panthers8912 said:

Why was he so bad after his breakout year?

 

He didn't break out, his season was a fluke.  Yes he's an athletic freak and a raw talent, with plenty of 'potential'.

As predicted by anyone with a semblance of logic, Bortles crashed down to earth in spectacular fashion the following year.  AR15 did NOT repeat 14 TDs, yet alone 16.  JAX didn't get to pile on stats at record rates in garbage time, AR didn't repeat the 3rd best 'deep threat' season ever, Allen Hurns and M.Lee actually played decently and for more than 5 games, JAX defense actually improved, etc etc etc.

 

A.Robs 'breakout' season, was the perfect storm of flukes, that no one should have expected to repeat.

He played all 16 games, had only 1 less target than his 'breakout' year, and only 7 fewer catches.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

8 hours ago, FFCollusion said:

 

He didn't break out, his season was a fluke.

As predicted by anyone with a semblance of logic, Bortles crashed down to earth in spectacular fashion the following year. 

When did the bears trade for Bortles-?  I missed that...

Edited by psygolf

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
51 minutes ago, psygolf said:

 

When did the bears trade for Bortles-?  I missed that...

To be fair, I am not sure he is really stepping into a better situation minus Blake Bortles. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I dont dislike Robinson, but I'm just not sure I want to pull the trigger on him as a WR2.   There's a lot of ways that Chicago can slice the pie on offense, and with all these new faces and new coaches, i can't pound the table and say "yes, Robinson is going to be heavily targeted".   Worried he ends up like Sammy Watkins in LA- a productive piece of the puzzle, but lacking heavy targets to produce good stats. 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I love me some Allen Robinson.  I had him during his amazing 2015 season and his not so great 2016 season.  He is one of my favorite players.

 

That said, he does have quite a hard time getting open against quality NFL DBs.  And his hands aren't all that great.

 

And he's returning from a major injury.  And playing in a totally new system with an unproven (to be generous) QB.  On a team with a very good defense and run game, so I don't think there will be much garbage time.

 

So if he is a wild bargain like $10.00 or something, yeah I might grab him as my WR3 or WR4.  But probably not.  There are younger, faster players in better situations going later than Robinson.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Do you mean $10 in a 200 cap?  Bc that's.....amazing if he falls that far.  I'll consider him around $20, depending on how my plan works out prior

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 hours ago, joshua18 said:

 

No, I really wish you good luck.  I hope Robinson proves me wrong about being Braylon Edwards 2.0, but he hasn't these past 2 seasons, and I'm sure not optimistic about him now. 

 

Wasn't he injured one of the two?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 hours ago, joshua18 said:

 

As the risky WR3 that he is...no sooner. 

 

The CHI defense is way too good to allow the garbage-time fueled stats that propelled Bortles, Robinson and Hurns in 2015. He's much closer to Braylon Edwards than to a truly elite WR. Plus he's still not 100% yet (limited in OTAs), I'm not sold on Trubisky, and the Reid coaching tree doesn't feed WR1s the 150+ targets Robinson has demonstrated requiring to be even a top-20 WR (and he didn't even do that in 2016 despite seeing 150+ targets). 

 

 

He's a 4th round pick, going right before Cooper, Juju, Demaryius, and Tate.  He doesn't need 150+ targets.  I don't see how that's too high of a price to pay.  Its him, a rookie, a glorified deep threat, and a WR converted to TE who could be a fluke.

  • Confused 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
39 minutes ago, BrianM said:

Do you mean $10 in a 200 cap?  Bc that's.....amazing if he falls that far.  I'll consider him around $20, depending on how my plan works out prior

 

Auctions are a wily beast, and you never know how they’ll go, how many leaguemates will overspend or underspend. I’ve seen ARob go for as low as $7, high as $28 (12-team, $200, varied configurations of WR/Flex spots, half-point and full PPR).

 

21 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

He's a 4th round pick, going right before Cooper, Juju, Demaryius, and Tate.  He doesn't need 150+ targets.  I don't see how that's too high of a price to pay.  Its him, a rookie, a glorified deep threat, and a WR converted to TE who could be a fluke.

 

I’m seeing ARob go after this quartet, and lately Marvin Jones and Golden Tate seem to be jockeying for first drafted Lions’ WR. 

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

He's a 4th round pick, going right before Cooper, Juju, Demaryius, and Tate.  He doesn't need 150+ targets.  I don't see how that's too high of a price to pay.  Its him, a rookie, a glorified deep threat, and a WR converted to TE who could be a fluke.

I am avoiding Cooper at his ADP though he could explode and be a great value. Juju will probably see more targets as the team's third option than A-Rob will see. I would probably feel safer taking Juju than I would A-Rob. You are almost guaranteed a 90/1000/4-5 season from Tate which is hard to pass up from a WR in that range. DT has been as consistent as any WR in the league throughout his career but age and QB play has caught up to him over the last couple of seasons. He probably puts up a decent year but I would probably take A-Rob over him. 

 

A-Rob will need 150+ targets if he maintains career averages. 150 targets would project him around 80/1000/(who knows). This would be a very good season but nothing spectacular. I think targets and TDs will make or break his season/value. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Grayson2401 said:

I am avoiding Cooper at his ADP though he could explode and be a great value. Juju will probably see more targets as the team's third option than A-Rob will see. I would probably feel safer taking Juju than I would A-Rob. You are almost guaranteed a 90/1000/4-5 season from Tate which is hard to pass up from a WR in that range. DT has been as consistent as any WR in the league throughout his career but age and QB play has caught up to him over the last couple of seasons. He probably puts up a decent year but I would probably take A-Rob over him. 

How do you figure that?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Was already seeing 7-8 targets a game over the last half of the season. Coming into his second year, you would expect some increased role and production. They are minus Martavis (though that does not mean too much), but that is 80+ targets going somewhere. And most importantly: Ben will throw the ball 500+ times this season (had 561ATT in 15 games last season). I just do not expect them to let Mitch throw the ball that much with their running game and defense. 

 

That being said, maybe I exaggerated my comment. I do imagine they finish relatively close in targets, but give me the player with a better catch rate and more prolific offense. 

 

 

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
31 minutes ago, Grayson2401 said:

I am avoiding Cooper at his ADP though he could explode and be a great value. Juju will probably see more targets as the team's third option than A-Rob will see. I would probably feel safer taking Juju than I would A-Rob. You are almost guaranteed a 90/1000/4-5 season from Tate which is hard to pass up from a WR in that range. DT has been as consistent as any WR in the league throughout his career but age and QB play has caught up to him over the last couple of seasons. He probably puts up a decent year but I would probably take A-Rob over him. 

 

A-Rob will need 150+ targets if he maintains career averages. 150 targets would project him around 80/1000/(who knows). This would be a very good season but nothing spectacular. I think targets and TDs will make or break his season/value. 

 

I think that's unlikely.  Possible, yes, but unlikely to happen.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Hawkeye21 said:

 

I think that's unlikely.  Possible, yes, but unlikely to happen.

 

I probably exaggerated (as mentioned above) but I would expect them to be fairly close. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.