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Allen Robinson 2018 Outlook

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Just now, Grayson2401 said:

 

I probably exaggerated (as mentioned above) but I would expect them to be fairly close. 

 

It could be close.  I expect JuJu to have about 90 targets and ARob should have over 100.

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3 minutes ago, Hawkeye21 said:

 

It could be close.  I expect JuJu to have about 90 targets and ARob should have over 100.

He saw 79 targets his rookie year, playing in 14 games and only starting in 7 of those. 

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2 minutes ago, Grayson2401 said:

He saw 79 targets his rookie year, playing in 14 games and only starting in 7 of those. 

And Martavis only played 15 games and started in 8.  Brown only played 14 games.  They drafted James Washington.  I would also argue that pass attempts will drop a bit with Todd Haley gone.

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1 minute ago, RMJ_12 said:

And Martavis only played 15 games and started in 8.  Brown only played 14 games.  They drafted James Washington.  I would also argue that pass attempts will drop a bit with Todd Haley gone.

 

Those are all fair points, but what are you expecting? Are you saying he again only sees roughly 80 targets over the season? He saw only 13.5% of the team's total targets last season. He should step in as the number two WR option. That number figures to rise. 

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4 minutes ago, Grayson2401 said:

 

Those are all fair points, but what are you expecting? Are you saying he again only sees roughly 80 targets over the season? He saw only 13.5% of the team's total targets last season. He should step in as the number two WR option. That number figures to rise. 

Yeah but I don't see anything significant.  Probably 100.  I see 120 for Robinson.

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7 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

Yeah but I don't see anything significant.  Probably 100.  I see 120 for Robinson.

That seems like a lot, frankly.  Chicago is going to win games that they grind out and control the clock with their run game.  Nagy is not going to turn the 2018 Bears into the 1992 Houston Oilers overnight.

 

Reid/Nagy offenses target their TE and RBs a lot, as well.  And the Bears have Cohen and Trey Burton, who are both quite good receivers at those spots.

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1 minute ago, SharkSwimmer said:

That seems like a lot, frankly.  Chicago is going to win games that they grind out and control the clock with their run game.  Nagy is not going to turn the 2018 Bears into the 1992 Houston Oilers overnight.

 

Reid/Nagy offenses target their TE and RBs a lot, as well.  And the Bears have Cohen and Trey Burton, who are both quite good receivers at those spots.

 

If they are not targeting ARob 100 times then something is wrong.  The crap offense they ran the last couple years was able to feed at least one WR they could target over 90 times.  That old offense did not ran very many plays and I expect this offense to have lot more opportunities.  There should be more passes and runs.  ARob can get 100 targets while plenty of others getting their share.

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3 hours ago, SharkSwimmer said:

That seems like a lot, frankly.  Chicago is going to win games that they grind out and control the clock with their run game.  Nagy is not going to turn the 2018 Bears into the 1992 Houston Oilers overnight.

 

Reid/Nagy offenses target their TE and RBs a lot, as well.  And the Bears have Cohen and Trey Burton, who are both quite good receivers at those spots.

A lot? Those numbers are pretty low, if anything. 100 would be shockingly low. 120 sounds about right. I think 120-130 is about what I'd expect.

 

Here are players who stayed healthy and had around 100 targets last year. 

 

Jimmy Graham -95

Nelson Agholor - 95

Mohamed Sanu -96

Alvin Kamara - 101

Jermaine Kearse -102

Kenny Stills - 105

Marvin Jones - 107

 

What do all of these guys have in common? None were the target leader for their teams. ARob will clearly be the #1 target on the Bears. 

 

*Not to mention guys like Diggs, Crabtree, Parker, Sanders, etc who were on pace for well over 100 targets. 

 

Hell, Kendall Wright had 91 targets last season with the Bears. If ARob simply inherits his target share, he'll already be over 100 targets based on the increase in volume alone. 

 

Edited by ajs723
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What is a realistic number of TDs for A-Rob this year? 8?  Anyone think higher?

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1 minute ago, Big Nate said:

What is a realistic number of TDs for A-Rob this year? 8?  Anyone think higher?

TDs are impossible to predict, but 8 is probably where I'd set the over/under. 

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12 minutes ago, ajs723 said:

A lot? Those numbers are pretty low, if anything. 100 would be shockingly low. 120 sounds about right. I think 120-130 is about what I'd expect.

 

Here are players who stayed healthy and had around 100 targets last year. 

 

Jimmy Graham -95

Nelson Agholor - 95

Mohamed Sanu -96

Alvin Kamara - 101

Jermaine Kearse -102

Kenny Stills - 105

Marvin Jones - 107

 

What do all of these guys have in common? None were the target leader for their teams. ARob will clearly be the #1 target on the Bears. 

 

*Not to mention guys like Diggs, Crabtree, Parker, Sanders, etc who were on pace for well over 100 targets. 

 

Hell, Kendall Wright had 91 targets last season with the Bears. If ARob simply inherits his target share, he'll already be over 100 targets based on the increase in volume alone. 

 

Veteran QBs (with the exception of Wentz) that have an extended leash. Of the above teams/QBs, only the Jets were outside the top 20 in passing attempts. Chicago was dead last in passing attempts. 

 

I definitely think a second year in the league and a new coaching staff will open things up a bit for Mitch, but I do not see them jumping into the top 20. Their run game is too good and they should have a good defense. 

 

But yes, A-Rob should definitely see somewhere around 120 targets, give or take a bit. 

 

 

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5 minutes ago, Grayson2401 said:

Veteran QBs (with the exception of Wentz) that have an extended leash. Of the above teams/QBs, only the Jets were outside the top 20 in passing attempts. Chicago was dead last in passing attempts. 

 

I definitely think a second year in the league and a new coaching staff will open things up a bit for Mitch, but I do not see them jumping into the top 20. Their run game is too good and they should have a good defense. 

 

But yes, A-Rob should definitely see somewhere around 120 targets, give or take a bit. 

 

 

Fair, but a #1 WR doesn't need good QB play to get targets. DT had 140 targets with garbage QB play last season. 

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100 targets if he stays healthy for Robinson seems far more believable than 120.

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3 minutes ago, SharkSwimmer said:

100 targets if he stays healthy for Robinson seems far more believable than 120.

So, who's going to lead the team in targets?

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2 minutes ago, ajs723 said:

Fair, but a #1 WR doesn't need good QB play to get targets. DT had 140 targets with garbage QB play last season. 

No doubt, but it will likely dictate their passing attempts assuming game situations. If the games are close, their best bet is to run the ball with a second year QB and strong running game. 

 

I think the 120 number is very realistic. 

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Allen Robinson is one of the more dissed wideouts in the nfl and if he's over his injury plus Tribs is decent I could see AR15 returning to the upper echelon of fantasy wrs..

 

In his best year he put up more of his monster numbers when the game was closer than he did when the jags were getting dump trucked so the whole "He put up empty numbers when they were getting killed!" is not really true...

 

Bortles has mostly sucked so of course Robinsons catch % suffered...

 

It was only a year ago that everyone was talking about the training camp practice video where Bortles way overthrew AROB out of bounds and Robinson snapped about how awful it was you could just feel his frustration with Bortles horrific accuracy....

 

If Tribusky is pretty good AR15 should again rise to every week fantasy production status....    

 

Having Robinson and depending on Bortles was painful most of the time so Id like Arob to do well away from him to prove it wasn't AR15 who was the problem in 2016/17....

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Seriously, if Kendall Wright can get over 90 targets on last year's team then it should be easy for AR to get over 100 this year.

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First of all, why should we assume Trubiesky is better than Bortles?

 

Second, Robinson needed 150 targets and a positively ludicrous amount of end zone targets to produce big numbers in 2015.  I don't see either of those things repeating in 2018.

 

But his price tag has baked in that he had that one huge fantasy year in his last full season save one.  And he's coming off the major injury.  So it is a no go for me.  Good luck to those of you who take the plunge.

 

And yes I was referring to $10 out of a $200.00 budget.  Still maybe too steep, I am that worried about the guy.

Edited by SharkSwimmer
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9 minutes ago, SharkSwimmer said:

First of all, why should we assume Trubiesky is better than Bortles?

https://goo.gl/images/DSPvP4

 

 

edit: I really wish I knew how to post gif's from mobile.

Edited by RMJ_12
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52 minutes ago, SharkSwimmer said:

First of all, why should we assume Trubiesky is better than Bortles?

 

Second, Robinson needed 150 targets and a positively ludicrous amount of end zone targets to produce big numbers in 2015.  I don't see either of those things repeating in 2018.

 

But his price tag has baked in that he had that one huge fantasy year in his last full season save one.  And he's coming off the major injury.  So it is a no go for me.  Good luck to those of you who take the plunge.

 

And yes I was referring to $10 out of a $200.00 budget.  Still maybe too steep, I am that worried about the guy.

You're creating a strawman. No one is arguing he's going to repeat his 80/1400/14 from 2015. Given his talent, I don't think 70+/1000+/7-9 is out of the question, by any means.  

Edited by ajs723
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2 hours ago, Hawkeye21 said:

Seriously, if Kendall Wright can get over 90 targets on last year's team then it should be easy for AR to get over 100 this year.

Or those will be Miller's and them some.

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1 hour ago, ajs723 said:

You're creating a strawman. No one is arguing he's going to repeat his 80/1400/14 from 2015. Given his talent, I don't think 70+/1000+/7-9 is out of the question, by any means.  

Everyone who takes Robinson in the 3rd or 4th round is going to secretly hope he repeats his monster 2015 season.  That's a straw man?

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5 minutes ago, SharkSwimmer said:

Everyone who takes Robinson in the 3rd or 4th round is going to secretly hope he repeats his monster 2015 season.  That's a straw man?

Well everyone wants that lol but 1200 yards 8 tds is good too

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3 minutes ago, SharkSwimmer said:

Everyone who takes Robinson in the 3rd or 4th round is going to secretly hope he repeats his monster 2015 season.  That's a straw man?

Hoping? Sure. I'm hoping every player I draft has a historically great season. 

 

Expecting? No. I don't need anywhere near that production for him to be a good value in the 4th round. 

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