thebrowns

Patrick Mahomes II 2018 Outlook

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First, Alex Smith should be gone since Bob Sutton is back, right? Can't imagine they keep a coordinator like that and not give him some fresh blood on that side of the ball. Dropping $17mil is probably the easiest way to get young vets in there. 

 

Second, IF PMII starts what kind of production are we looking at FF wise? QB8-12 production? Is he a low-end starter in 1-QB leagues? 

I'm assuming not much changes with that young offense. Those receivers, Kelce, hunt (probably ware too?) should all be the same. The only place I see that they should improve on that side of the ball is the O-Line. 

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11 minutes ago, thebrowns said:

First, Alex Smith should be gone since Bob Sutton is back, right? Can't imagine they keep a coordinator like that and not give him some fresh blood on that side of the ball. Dropping $17mil is probably the easiest way to get young vets in there. 

 

Second, IF PMII starts what kind of production are we looking at FF wise? QB8-12 production? Is he a low-end starter in 1-QB leagues? 

I'm assuming not much changes with that young offense. Those receivers, Kelce, hunt (probably ware too?) should all be the same. The only place I see that they should improve on that side of the ball is the O-Line. 

 

 

no idea where to rank him because I'm only good at picking 1-5 early season; the rest is a grab bag.  The offense is not going to change much at all still a west coast based offense. i think the only real difference is mahoones appears to be more aggressive with passing downfield and  will able to buy a bit more time moving the chains using his superior mobility than alex smith. now of course it can be a less effective offense because he is still learning how to run it.  i read somewhere it takes  a QB about 4yrs to have a strong grasp on running a west coast offense.

 

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2 minutes ago, dashoe said:

 

 

no idea where to rank him because I'm only good at picking 1-5 early season; the rest is a grab bag.  The offense is not going to change much at all still a west coast based offense. i think the only real difference is mahoones appears to be more aggressive with passing downfield and  will able to buy a bit more time moving the chains using his superior mobility than alex smith. now of course it can be a less effective offense because he is still learning how to run it.  i read somewhere it takes  a QB about 4yrs to have a strong grasp on running a west coast offense.

 

 

Yeah, they say that year four is the bump year for the system. According to http://games.espn.com/ffl/leaders?slotCategoryId=0 Smith was top 5 in 2017. The issue I see with Mahomes beyond just learning the system is that he will turn the ball over more than Smith (almost everybody turns it over more than he does). Will there be enough production to make Mahomes worthwhile this year? I think he might still be stash guy.

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Mahomes not a draft target for me. 

 

Tyreek Hill a DND for me (at expected ADP). 

 

Kelce intrigues me. He could be a target monster putting up 1200+ yards. 

 

I Expect this offense to struggle, but I expect receivers to see more targets than last season. 

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Posted this in the Tyreek Hill thread as well...


There isn't a lot to go on for Mahomes, but in Week 17 against the Broncos, he had to face a solid defense on the road. How did that go? Well, he got them to a 24-10 lead, despite playing with a bunch of backups. The Chiefs put their 3rd stringer in with the game presumably in hand...but Tyler Bray fumbled, blew the lead, and Denver tied it up at 24-24. So Mahomes came back in and promptly led the Chiefs on a game-winning drive. I watched all of Mahomes' snaps and thought this article had a good summary of how he performed (including gifs and clips of his top throws)...

 

https://www.arrowheadpride.com/2018/1/1/16837486/the-top-5-patrick-mahomes-wow-plays-in-his-first-chiefs-start

 

In addition, this was what PFF recently had to say about Mahomes, where they ranked him as the #7 QB that is 25 years or younger:

There may be no greater nexus of potential in the NFL right now than Mahomes. We are dealing with incredibly small sample sizes, but everything we have seen from him at the NFL level has been impressive. He was PFF’s top-graded QB overall in the preseason, ending those games with a grade of 81.5, and his one start during the regular season showed spectacular throws.

Mahomes may never play within the confines of an offensive structure for too long, but he is a born playmaker, and can pull that off with frightening regularity seemingly with no regard to the level of competition he is facing. With Alex Smith’s time in Kansas City likely coming to a close, next year should be the dawn of some major excitement within that offense.

 

I don't think Mahomes should be drafted as a QB1 in 12-team leagues or lower. But I do think he has the potential to be a QB1 as the season progresses. And I think he's a very intriguing target in 2 QB leagues. I like that he was able to absorb a full season (minus Week 17's start) from the sidelines and be mentored by a vet like Smith. Hopefully the redshirt will make his transition easier. Highly-touted QB's such as Aaron Rodgers and Carson Palmer went the same route despite being 1st round picks, and it seems rare to see that happen with 1st round QB's. Overall, from what we know right now, I'm optimistic (admittedly a bit of cautious optimism is in there).

 

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Huge question mark obviously, but he has a lot of talent around him.  I can definitely see myself taking a shot next year over guys like Dak, Dalton, Bortles, Winston, Eli, Stafford.  Especially if I find a way to sneak two late round QBs on the roster.

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So hearing KC gets a 2018 3rd rounder and CB Kendall Fuller from the Redskins. Obviously the Chiefs defense had its issues in 2017...and Fuller had an excellent season in his second year (ranked as PFF's #6 CB and see that Bleacher Report picked him as the NFL's top slot defender). So Mahomes will get to inherit a seemingly-improved roster with those two moves alone.

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1 hour ago, Corleone said:

So hearing KC gets a 2018 3rd rounder and CB Kendall Fuller from the Redskins. Obviously the Chiefs defense had its issues in 2017...and Fuller had an excellent season in his second year (ranked as PFF's #6 CB and see that Bleacher Report picked him as the NFL's top slot defender). So Mahomes will get to inherit a seemingly-improved roster with those two moves alone.

 

He'll be in a better situation next year than Smith was this year. Hunt is proven now. Hill has one year as a wr1. They will have some good opportunities to draft in day 2. Two competent corners. That front office will have some money to play with once Tamba is cut. And Derrick Johnson needs to rework his contract or be cut. Now to address that line. 

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7 hours ago, thebrowns said:

 

He'll be in a better situation next year than Smith was this year. Hunt is proven now. Hill has one year as a wr1. They will have some good opportunities to draft in day 2. Two competent corners. That front office will have some money to play with once Tamba is cut. And Derrick Johnson needs to rework his contract or be cut. Now to address that line. 

 

Agreed. And on top of what you mentioned, hopefully they will have Eric Berry returning from his injury, to resume his spot at safety. 

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7 hours ago, thebrowns said:

 

He'll be in a better situation next year than Smith was this year. Hunt is proven now. Hill has one year as a wr1. They will have some good opportunities to draft in day 2. Two competent corners. That front office will have some money to play with once Tamba is cut. And Derrick Johnson needs to rework his contract or be cut. Now to address that line. 

 

 oh no please dont count Reid out from being too clever and experimental with his 5000 friggin plays on his big friggin plastic play calling sheet. 

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On 1/25/2018 at 9:35 PM, dogfightgiggle said:

Huge question mark obviously, but he has a lot of talent around him.  I can definitely see myself taking a shot next year over guys like Dak, Dalton, Bortles, Winston, Eli, Stafford.  Especially if I find a way to sneak two late round QBs on the roster.

I think there are question marks on the OL. Outside of Kelce, Hill, and Hunt do they have much talent on offense? What happened to the offense when Kelce was missing from the 2nd half of the playoff game? That wasn't because they didn't give the ball to Hunt enough. They weren't even getting 1st downs.

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13 minutes ago, devaster said:

I think there are question marks on the OL. Outside of Kelce, Hill, and Hunt do they have much talent on offense? What happened to the offense when Kelce was missing from the 2nd half of the playoff game? That wasn't because they didn't give the ball to Hunt enough. They weren't even getting 1st downs.

 

That's play calling from the coaches and making pre-snap reads at the line from the QB. 

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39 minutes ago, devaster said:

I think there are question marks on the OL. Outside of Kelce, Hill, and Hunt do they have much talent on offense? What happened to the offense when Kelce was missing from the 2nd half of the playoff game? That wasn't because they didn't give the ball to Hunt enough. They weren't even getting 1st downs.

Kelce, Hill, & Hunt is nothing to sneeze at.

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Just now, dogfightgiggle said:

Kelce, Hill, & Hunt is nothing to sneeze at.

Even with that we are looking at a rookie (1st year starter) QB that was a development prospect going into the draft last season. Expectations need to be tempered. Nothing better than a QB2 flyer next season.

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Just now, dogfightgiggle said:

Kelce, Hill, & Hunt is nothing to sneeze at.

Probably the most explosive trio in the league.  I can’t think of another better.    KCs problem was their defense.   When Berry went down that was it.   But the talent on the front 7 is undeniable, and now Fuller- a young, cheap, budding cb1 is in the fold .   Biggest question is Mahomes 

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It seems they started adjusting the play calling this year in anticipation for this change to Mahomes. Maybe getting the rest of the offense ready for more of a field stretching QB. I think Mahomes slides in and does well and gives them a dual threat QB.... kid can run too.

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2 hours ago, devaster said:

Even with that we are looking at a rookie (1st year starter) QB that was a development prospect going into the draft last season. Expectations need to be tempered. Nothing better than a QB2 flyer next season.

I'm not gonna disagree that he's a flyer, but I like the way things are shaping up.

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2 hours ago, Impreza178 said:

Probably the most explosive trio in the league.  I can’t think of another better.    KCs problem was their defense.   When Berry went down that was it.   But the talent on the front 7 is undeniable, and now Fuller- a young, cheap, budding cb1 is in the fold .   Biggest question is Mahomes 

Bell, Brown, JuJu. 

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2 hours ago, oliminator123 said:

Bell, Brown, JuJu. 

kamara,Fleener,Thomas

 

 oh correction :lol:

 

kamara,ingram,Thomas

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4 hours ago, Impreza178 said:

Probably the most explosive trio in the league.  I can’t think of another better.    KCs problem was their defense.   When Berry went down that was it.   But the talent on the front 7 is undeniable, and now Fuller- a young, cheap, budding cb1 is in the fold .   Biggest question is Mahomes 

 

Beckham, Engram, Barkley ... :ph34r:

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5 hours ago, JohnD said:

 I think Mahomes slides in and does well and gives them a dual threat QB.... kid can run too.

They already had a dual threat in Smith.

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Unless he just completely falls flat on his face I'd expect fringe top ten numbers out of him in 4-point passing TD leagues.

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14 hours ago, hoppychokes said:

They already had a dual threat in Smith.

You and I clearly have different ideas on what a dual threat QB is if you considered Smith one.

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The Chiefs are suddenly a much more dangerous team.

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