thebrowns

Patrick Mahomes II 2018 Outlook

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8 hours ago, 96mnc said:

 

Assuming you're just talking RB/TE/WR -

 

Gurley, Everett, Watkins?  That's assuming projection of Everett hitting his Jordan Reed ceiling.

 

Gronk, Cooks, Dion Lewis?

 

Here's a stretch one with a LOT of projection in it - Seals-Jones, DJ, John Brown/JJ Nelson?

 

ASJ, Robby "wife stealer" Anderson, Powell?

 

AJ, Eifert, Mixon?

 

Doctson, Reed, Chris Thompson?

 

Thelien/Diggs, Rudolph, Cook?

 

Those are mostly reaches but pure talent wise I do think there's one combo that matches the KC trio in athleticism and explosiveness:

 

Josh Gordon, Njoku, Duke Johnson (or Barkley if he goes there).

 

 

 

 

I'd take Allen/Henry/Gordon over 90% of the trio's you listed.

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1 hour ago, kdko said:

 

I'd take Allen/Henry/Gordon over 90% of the trio's you listed.

 

Thought about that one but since it was "explosive!" trios I leaned more to pure athletic ability.  They should be on there though. 

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6 hours ago, South Carolina said:

KC got fleeced. 

 

How? KC got a great return. Kendall Fuller was fantastic last year. 

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Yeah, they didn’t get fleeced at all.  SC is just flat-out wrong.

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2 hours ago, BMcP said:

Yeah, they didn’t get fleeced at all.  SC is just flat-out wrong.

 

In my opinion they should have waited until it got closer to the draft. Mahomes wasn't going anywhere. 

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2 hours ago, South Carolina said:

 

In my opinion they should have waited until it got closer to the draft. Mahomes wasn't going anywhere. 

 

The Chiefs were going to trade putt cut Alex by March 16 to save as much as they could in cap space. The closer they got to that date the less leverage they would have, especially as teams started to solidify their 2018 plans. This deal is 15.5mil in cap, Fuller (cb2), and a mid 3rd.  Fuller and the new rookie take up just over a combined million. Every dollar matters especially for the aging chiefs. This is a play four 2019. Any wins in 2018 is gravy. 

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KC is very lucky to have received anything at all for Alex Smith.  Most smart teams were probably not on him at all.  Smart teams desperate for a quarterback were probably sitting back and waiting for the Chiefs to have to cut Smith.  Luckily they found two idiot franchises and played them off each other; the sad sack Browns who just can't seem to get a break, and Washington who had a puzzling need to show Kirk Cousins who was boss once and for all.

 

As for Mahomes, he has now had a year to learn the system.  He is surrounded by great weapons.  And apparently he has wheels for days and a cannon arm.  Growing up around pro sports is always a plus, too.  The big stage never scared Ken Griffey, Jr. and countless others because stadiums full of screaming fans were old hat to them.

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41 minutes ago, SharkSwimmer said:

KC is very lucky to have received anything at all for Alex Smith.  Most smart teams were probably not on him at all.  Smart teams desperate for a quarterback were probably sitting back and waiting for the Chiefs to have to cut Smith.  Luckily they found two idiot franchises and played them off each other; the sad sack Browns who just can't seem to get a break, and Washington who had a puzzling need to show Kirk Cousins who was boss once and for all.

 

As for Mahomes, he has now had a year to learn the system.  He is surrounded by great weapons.  And apparently he has wheels for days and a cannon arm.  Growing up around pro sports is always a plus, too.  The big stage never scared Ken Griffey, Jr. and countless others because stadiums full of screaming fans were old hat to them.

 

They would have likely kept smith short of a great offer.  20M cap hit isn’t that extreme.  Denver supposedly offered Talib and a second rounder which KC flat denied.   Smith was a top 5 qb last season and led the league in big plays (over 50 yards).   Plenty of interest there.  

 

Re: Skins-   It would be great if they could go back in time and sign him for 20-24M a season- but they can’t.    They gambled and lost big.  So they needed to shed Cousins or pay him an astronomical 34M on the tag this season.     They now have a comparable qb for 10M less a season on a contract that offers them protections.     Giving up Fuller to do it was the major malfunction, imo.

Edited by Impreza178

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1 hour ago, thebrowns said:

 

The Chiefs were going to trade putt cut Alex by March 16 to save as much as they could in cap space. The closer they got to that date the less leverage they would have, especially as teams started to solidify their 2018 plans. This deal is 15.5mil in cap, Fuller (cb2), and a mid 3rd.  Fuller and the new rookie take up just over a combined million. Every dollar matters especially for the aging chiefs. This is a play four 2019. Any wins in 2018 is gravy. 

 

^well said.   They could have kept smith but getting out in front of the qb needy teams early was imperative.    It’s going to be a free for all when the league season opens.       Great move by KC all around 

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25 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:

 

^well said.   They could have kept smith but getting out in front of the qb needy teams early was imperative.    It’s going to be a free for all when the league season opens.       Great move by KC all around 

I agree it was a great move by KC.  But Washington could have sat back and waited for Smith to be cut.  But they are a garbage franchise with Snyder and Bruce Allen, so they didn't.

 

Reid wasn't about to trade Smith to a team within his own division.  Reid would prefer to face Vance's boys twice a year with Simien/Paxton/Osweiler grab bag QBs.

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3 minutes ago, SharkSwimmer said:

I agree it was a great move by KC.  But Washington could have sat back and waited for Smith to be cut.  But they are a garbage franchise with Snyder and Bruce Allen, so they didn't.

 

Reid wasn't about to trade Smith to a team within his own division.  Reid would prefer to face Vance's boys twice a year with Simien/Paxton/Osweiler grab bag QBs.

 Reid knows better than to think any of those qbs will be starting for Denver.  He just didn’t want to face a motivated smith in his prime.     Understandable.  

 

KC wouldn’t have cut Smith though.   Then they REALLY would have had to worry about him signing with Denver.   And gotten nothing in return.    This was the only scenario wsh gets him.    

Edited by Impreza178

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1 minute ago, Impreza178 said:

KC wouldn’t have cut Smith though.   Then they REALLY would have had to worry about him signing with Denver.   And gotten nothing in return.    This was the only scenario wsh gets him.    

 

36 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:

 

They would have likely kept smith short of a great offer.  20M cap hit isn’t that extreme.  Denver supposedly offered Talib and a second rounder which KC flat denied.   Smith was a top 5 qb last season and led the league in big plays (over 50 yards).   Plenty of interest 

 

Smith wasn't returning in 2018. Reid loves him, but they need the cap room. Revis, Tamba, and probably Derrick Johnson (he could be restructured) will be cut. This team needs to get younger and cheaper. Especially after keeping Bob Sutton.

 

That Fuller add in helps Mahomes significantly because Smith suffered from an awful secondary. It would be nice for a QB to get a double digit lead and not feel like they are playing from behind. 

 

I think they need some pass rush to help protect him,  but Mahomes could be very solid next year 4500yds, 30td, 20ints, 63%completion rate, 200 yds on the ground. (Major shot in the dark without knowing the full roster) I expect a receiver and pass protection in the off-season to help Mahomes' side of the ball.

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15 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:

 Reid knows better than to think any of those qbs will be starting for Denver.  He just didn’t want to face a motivated smith in his prime.     Understandable.  

 

KC wouldn’t have cut Smith though.   Then they REALLY would have had to worry about him signing with Denver.   And gotten nothing in return.    This was the only scenario wsh gets him.    

 

IMO they had to cut/move Smith.   They were 7m OVER the cap (nice job Dorsey). If they didn't cut Smith they wouldn't have been able to do anything in free agency.   

 

Cutting Hali, West, Revis (which they will likely still do) would net them 13m in cap space which would have put them at 6m UNDER prior to FA opening but that still wouldn't have been enough to do anything.  They HAD to move all those guys AND Smith to have money for their upcoming draft picks and to make a few FA acquisitions.

 

Edited to add: DJ needs to be either restructured or cut as well. 

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6 minutes ago, thebrowns said:

 

 

Smith wasn't returning in 2018. Reid loves him, but they need the cap room. Revis, Tamba, and probably Derrick Johnson (he could be restructured) will be cut. This team needs to get younger and cheaper. Especially after keeping Bob Sutton.

 

That Fuller add in helps Mahomes significantly because Smith suffered from an awful secondary. It would be nice for a QB to get a double digit lead and not feel like they are playing from behind. 

 

I think they need some pass rush to help protect him,  but Mahomes could be very solid next year 4500yds, 30td, 20ints, 63%completion rate, 200 yds on the ground. (Major shot in the dark without knowing the full roster) I expect a receiver and pass protection in the off-season to help Mahomes' side of the ball.

 

4 minutes ago, 96mnc said:

 

IMO they had to cut/move Smith.   They were 7m OVER the cap (nice job Dorsey). If they didn't cut Smith they wouldn't have been able to do anything in free agency.   

 

Cutting Hali, West, Revis (which they will likely still do) would net them 13m in cap space which would have put them at 6m UNDER prior to FA opening but that still wouldn't have been enough to do anything.  They HAD to move all those guys AND Smith to have money for their upcoming draft picks and to make a few FA acquisitions.

Well we have to disagree there-  no way they let him go for nothing.    Trading him was of course optimal.   Any players they needed to keep could be restructured, and Mahomes is on a cheap rookie deal.   Guys like Revis either get the scraps or are gone.   DJ is 35 years old- nice to keep as a team leader but not imperative.    Luckily Smith was downright awesome in 2017 and had a lot of interest. 

 

The idea that wsh could have just waited and scooped him for free is far fetched imo. 

Edited by Impreza178

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1 minute ago, Impreza178 said:

 

Well we have to disagree there-  no way they let him go for nothing.    Trading him was of course optimal.   Any players they needed to keep could be restructured, and Mahomes is on a cheap rookie deal.   Guys like Revis either get the scraps or are gone.   DJ is 35 years old- nice to keep as a team leader but not imperative.    

 

The idea that wsh could have just waited and scooped him for free is far fetched imo. 

 

I really can't believe that this team made it to 10-6 in 2017. I expected then to fall apart even without drafting Mahomes  (giving up a 1st round pick for 2017).

 

The Chiefs we're going to trade Smith for whoever they could get. I think Smith at 33 is better than McNabb at 33; Reid traded McNabb in within the division. I don't think they were going to drop Smith because they would have flipped him for something. 

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7 minutes ago, thebrowns said:

 

I really can't believe that this team made it to 10-6 in 2017. I expected then to fall apart even without drafting Mahomes  (giving up a 1st round pick for 2017).

 

The Chiefs we're going to trade Smith for whoever they could get. I think Smith at 33 is better than McNabb at 33; Reid traded McNabb in within the division. I don't think they were going to drop Smith because they would have flipped him for something. 

Yeah u are probly right.    Cutting him was never really a legit concern.    

 

No one expected Smith to turn into Drew Brees and light it up the way he did, or Hunt to be so good so fast.   And it’s always tough to win in KC late season.    Just brutal weather and a great home crowd.   And Den/Oak fell apart.  

Edited by Impreza178
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34 minutes ago, thebrowns said:

 

I really can't believe that this team made it to 10-6 in 2017. I expected then to fall apart even without drafting Mahomes  (giving up a 1st round pick for 2017).

 

The Chiefs we're going to trade Smith for whoever they could get. I think Smith at 33 is better than McNabb at 33; Reid traded McNabb in within the division. I don't think they were going to drop Smith because they would have flipped him for something. 

 

I had their win total at 9 before the season which coincidentally Vegas did too.  Gun to head and forced to pick I went under (think Prez can confirm that).

 

Why do I think they actually made it to 10 wins? 

- the complete collapse of Denver and Oakland in the division.  That late season win @denver with a rookie qb was win #10.  The miracle comeback vs NE hurt too if you had the under. 

- Kareem Hunt.  I in no way thought he'd be the force that he was coming into the year. 

- Alex Smith deep ball emergence.   Added a dimension to their offense I didn't expect.

- Reid actually handing over play calling to Nagy for the last half or so of the season.   KC was dead in the water as a team.   Nagy took over playcalling,  reincorporated  hunt who Reid had predictably ignored for five or so games, and the offense caught fire again. 

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1 hour ago, Impreza178 said:

 Reid knows better than to think any of those qbs will be starting for Denver.  He just didn’t want to face a motivated smith in his prime.     Understandable.  

 

KC wouldn’t have cut Smith though.   Then they REALLY would have had to worry about him signing with Denver.   And gotten nothing in return.    This was the only scenario wsh gets him.    

That's actually a pretty good point.  That may indeed have figured into KC's thinking.  All the more reason for Washington to make a deal with KC better for Washington than the one they did make.  Any more, we may never know.

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20 hours ago, South Carolina said:

We have absolutely nothing tangible to go on.

 

I agree with your general sentiment that we should temper expectations.

 

But we do have tangible things to go off of.  He looked amazing in the preseason and week 17 against Denver.  Not everyone has a 'cannon arm' (Brees, Brady, for example, and there are many more), and Mahomes is pretty mobile too.  Of course Smith was mobile so it's not an added dimension to the offense, but a) it helps his floor as far as fantasy football goes and b.) the league is morphing away from pocket passers to dual threat QBs.  QBs of course still need to be able to sit in the pocket and go through their reads and 'hit all the throws', but every young emerging (or already emerged) QB now depends on their legs as well to move the pocket and pick up first downs.  It started with the Smith and Rodgers draft.  You have also have Trubisky, and Stafford in the NFCN who all have shown willingness to move; Wentz, Dak; Cam and Winston; Russell Wilson in the west ... Luck, Mariota, Watson, Bortles in the AFC. 

 

Anyways, that's all just to say that Mahomes fits the mold based on all the college and pro tape -- the mental and physical traits that we see him display.  He's in a system that's incredibly friendly to quarterbacks.  Doesn't have glaring inaccuracy issues.  Those are all tangible things.

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The league tried to morph away from pocket passers and it failed. It has come and gone numerous times over the years. Back when Kaep burst onto the scene it was all the talk about RG3, Kaep, Wilson, and other dual threats. Vick before. The issue is that these QB's predictably struggle when they regress as passers. Wilson is actually a good passer. Luck, Rodgers, and Wentz are all dual threats that are good passers. Cam has regressed, but has a high fantasy floor due to his rushing. I think we have seen Cam's peaks in fantasy and reality.

 

The reason guys like Luck, Rodgers, Wilson, and Wentz (still early to say on Wentz though) continue to have success in the league is because they can pass from the pocket and go through their progressions. All the other dual threats come and go once defenses take away what they do best and those QB's don't adapt.

 

A guy like Mahomes can have success in his 1st season as a starter as teams don't have enough tape on him. But once defenses have tape and take things away Mahomes will need to mature as a passer from the pocket to have sustained success in the league.

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5 minutes ago, devaster said:

The league tried to morph away from pocket passers and it failed. It has come and gone numerous times over the years. Back when Kaep burst onto the scene it was all the talk about RG3, Kaep, Wilson, and other dual threats. Vick before. The issue is that these QB's predictably struggle when they regress as passers. Wilson is actually a good passer. Luck, Rodgers, and Wentz are all dual threats that are good passers. Cam has regressed, but has a high fantasy floor due to his rushing. I think we have seen Cam's peaks in fantasy and reality.

 

The reason guys like Luck, Rodgers, Wilson, and Wentz (still early to say on Wentz though) continue to have success in the league is because they can pass from the pocket and go through their progressions. All the other dual threats come and go once defenses take away what they do best and those QB's don't adapt.

 

A guy like Mahomes can have success in his 1st season as a starter as teams don't have enough tape on him. But once defenses have tape and take things away Mahomes will need to mature as a passer from the pocket to have sustained success in the league.

 

I agree with this sentiment.

 

Teams will eventually adjust and pin these running qbs in the pocket.   It'll be on them to prove they can make plays from the pocket consistently.  

 

Tyrod can't so he's hit his ceiling...doesn't mean he's a bad player just that his weaknesses are known.  MM8 REALLY needs to improve as a drop back passer.  His splits with PA and without are staggering.  We saw the crapfest that was Dak this season.  There's now a whole lot of tape on Watson... he was also incredibly lucky that he did not have more interceptions this season.

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5 minutes ago, devaster said:

The league tried to morph away from pocket passers and it failed. It has come and gone numerous times over the years. Back when Kaep burst onto the scene it was all the talk about RG3, Kaep, Wilson, and other dual threats. Vick before. The issue is that these QB's predictably struggle when they regress as passers. Wilson is actually a good passer. Luck, Rodgers, and Wentz are all dual threats that are good passers. Cam has regressed, but has a high fantasy floor due to his rushing. I think we have seen Cam's peaks in fantasy and reality.

 

The reason guys like Luck, Rodgers, Wilson, and Wentz (still early to say on Wentz though) continue to have success in the league is because they can pass from the pocket and go through their progressions. All the other dual threats come and go once defenses take away what they do best and those QB's don't adapt.

 

A guy like Mahomes can have success in his 1st season as a starter as teams don't have enough tape on him. But once defenses have tape and take things away Mahomes will need to mature as a passer from the pocket to have sustained success in the league.

 

I agree with this sentiment.

 

Teams will eventually adjust and pin these running qbs in the pocket.   It'll be on them to prove they can make plays from the pocket consistently.  

 

Tyrod can't so he's hit his ceiling...doesn't mean he's a bad player just that his weaknesses are known.  MM8 REALLY needs to improve as a drop back passer.  His splits with PA and without are staggering.  We saw the crapfest that was Dak this season.  There's now a whole lot of tape on Watson... he was also incredibly lucky that he did not have more interceptions this season.

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38 minutes ago, devaster said:

The league tried to morph away from pocket passers and it failed. It has come and gone numerous times over the years. Back when Kaep burst onto the scene it was all the talk about RG3, Kaep, Wilson, and other dual threats. Vick before. The issue is that these QB's predictably struggle when they regress as passers.

 

Or.... Certain qbs don't have the accuracy or mental abilities to make it in the league, whether they are mobile or not. 

 

I don't know how you can look at the success of all the young qbs in the league and conclude that the league is failing to morph away from true pocket passers. Well, I guess I know: you are cherry picking the failures and using them as your argument, while ignoring the successes.  

 

Since the Roethlisberger/Manning/Rivers draft, Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco are the only true pocket passers that were drafted who went on to accomplish anything. 

 

Yes, end of day, arm ability trumps leg ability. But having leg ability (in addition to arm)  is increasingly part of the job description. 

Edited by Lord_Varys

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2 minutes ago, Lord_Varys said:

 

Or.... Certain qbs don't have the accuracy or mental abilities to make it in the league, whether they are mobile or not. 

 

I don't know how you can look at the success of all the young qbs in the league and conclude that the league is failing to morph away from true pocket passers. Well, I guess I know: you are cherry picking the failures and using them as your argument, while ignoring the successes.  

It isn't cherry picking. The dual threat QB's that can't operate regularly from a pocket and work through progressions eventually flame out. It all comes down to passing still. Mariota is another example of a QB that struggles in the pocket so far and has regressed as a passer.

 

I was just giving dual threat examples. There are plenty of one-year wonder QB's that weren't dual threats that flamed out because they couldn't adapt after defenses took away what they do best. Derek Anderson is one such example. All comes down to passing from the pocket eventually.

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It also isn't just about "arm ability". It has more to do with footwork, knowledge of the defense, quick release, throwing motion, that sixth sense of feeling pressure in the pocket, etc. A lot goes into having throwing success from the pocket. Legs help extend plays and make plays out of nothing. It is another tool in arsenal. Big Ben was able to extend plays often when he was younger and shrug off tacklers. Rodgers, Wilson, Luck, and Wentz extend plays outside the pocket. The pure pocket passers just need to be even better from the pocket because they have less tools to work with to extend plays to make the play.

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