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Patrick Mahomes II 2018 Outlook

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21 minutes ago, ShowStopper said:

This kid supposed be tom Brady in training camp throwing dimes and tds all over the place likes he’s a seasoned vet? Hes a young player getting ready to be a starter for the first time. It’s called training camp for a reason. Your training and learning for the season. Really enjoy all the overreactions as usual every year lol. 

 

Don't Forget Watson didnt win the starting job in training camp. Some guys have to be in the game to take it to the next level.

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1 hour ago, dashoe said:

 

Don't Forget Watson didnt win the starting job in training camp. Some guys have to be in the game to take it to the next level.

 

Exactly... probably a good thing he’s throwing those picks now. Let him make his mistakes now, learn from them and grow. I don’t expect a young talented player to be lighting it up in practice right away. 

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25 minutes ago, ShowStopper said:

 

Exactly... probably a good thing he’s throwing those picks now. Let him make his mistakes now, learn from them and grow. I don’t expect a young talented player to be lighting it up in practice right away. 

 

I don't expect a 1st year starting QB to learn Andy Reids version of the WCOwithout making  alot of mistakes, it takes like 4yrs as a QB to run it with skill

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2 hours ago, ShowStopper said:

 

Exactly... probably a good thing he’s throwing those picks now. Let him make his mistakes now, learn from them and grow. I don’t expect a young talented player to be lighting it up in practice right away. 

Let’s see if he’s still throwing picks in the preseason against vanilla defenses.  If he is, maybe bump him down in the rankings.  The problem is, he’s not really overvalued now... so will likely be undervalued anyways.

 

I wouldn’t be draft Mahomes as my main QB.  He’s more of a guy I’d like to have down the stretch for upside.

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6 minutes ago, seanismorris said:

Let’s see if he’s still throwing picks in the preseason against vanilla defenses.  If he is, maybe bump him down in the rankings.  The problem is, he’s not really overvalued now... so will likely be undervalued anyways.

 

I wouldn’t be draft Mahomes as my main QB.  He’s more of a guy I’d like to have down the stretch for upside.

 

I’m looking to draft him as a back up in hopes he breaks out big time later on in the season once he gets acclimated to the nfl. He’s got the arm and weapons around him around to do it. First half of the season could be a little rough

Edited by ShowStopper

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His ranking in Yahoo seems way too high at 100, I’m guessing it’s because he has lots of weapons to work with but he’s still totally unproven. Carson Wentz had an ADP of round 12 last year and he was coming off a respectable rookie year where he looked pretty good. I just can’t take him that early. 

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3 hours ago, daethfromabove1979 said:

His ranking in Yahoo seems way too high at 100, I’m guessing it’s because he has lots of weapons to work with but he’s still totally unproven. Carson Wentz had an ADP of round 12 last year and he was coming off a respectable rookie year where he looked pretty good. I just can’t take him that early. 

Yahoo is for yahoo’s ; )

 

Fantasy Pro’s has him at the 11/12 round turn right with Mariota and before Alex Smith.

 

I’m not feeling a need to reach for Mahomes.  If I don’t draft him I can probably trade for him during his projected rocky start.

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8 hours ago, dashoe said:

it takes like 4yrs as a QB to run it with skill

But in today's NFL, QBs hardly get any time to mature, never mind adapt to an offense. Which is somewhat crazy given the enormous investment in salary and draft stock teams put into them, but there you go.

If Mahomes blows the first 4 games (which is not impossible at all), the same fans who wanted him last year will be screaming for his head on a spike.

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13 hours ago, ShowStopper said:

 

Exactly... probably a good thing he’s throwing those picks now. Let him make his mistakes now, learn from them and grow. I don’t expect a young talented player to be lighting it up in practice right away. 

 

I wouldn't be shocked. That was the knock on him coming out of college. He's very undisciplined and throws a lot of bad balls. Is he coachable? If so his upside is tremendous.

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14 hours ago, dashoe said:

 

I don't expect a 1st year starting QB to learn Andy Reids version of the WCOwithout making  alot of mistakes, it takes like 4yrs as a QB to run it with skill

 

McNabb was MVP runner up (to Faulk, so he was ahead of all other QBs) in his 2nd year in the league under Reid. Mahomes has similar ability, so there's no reason to expect he can't be really good right now.

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1 minute ago, joshua18 said:

 

McNabb was MVP runner up (to Faulk, so he was ahead of all other QBs) in his 2nd year in the league under Reid. Mahomes has similar ability, so there's no reason to expect he can't be really good right now.

 

 I don't have any knowledge of Mcnabb in this context. Did he start his first year or did he sit on the bench like mahommes?  

Alex Smith was very underrated in his ability to run that offense  smoothly and i think this season fans will see the difference in fits and lurches. 

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1 minute ago, dashoe said:

 

 I don't have any knowledge of Mcnabb in this context. Did he start his first year or did he sit on the bench like mahommes?  

Alex Smith was very underrated in his ability to run that offense  smoothly and i think this season fans will see the difference in fits and lurches. 

 

Reid changed the offense to suit the Utah dink and dunk system Smith excelled with in college. The offense design under Mahomes will be different. 

 

Like Mahomes, McNabb's first full season as a starter was his second year. 

 

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On 8/2/2018 at 3:52 PM, ShowStopper said:

This kid supposed be tom Brady in training camp throwing dimes and tds all over the place likes he’s a seasoned vet? Hes a young player getting ready to be a starter for the first time. It’s called training camp for a reason. Your training and learning for the season. Really enjoy all the overreactions as usual every year lol. 

On 8/2/2018 at 5:39 PM, ShowStopper said:

 

Exactly... probably a good thing he’s throwing those picks now. Let him make his mistakes now, learn from them and grow. I don’t expect a young talented player to be lighting it up in practice right away. 

 

It would be one thing if this were a new struggle for him, but 29 INT in 32 college games says otherwise.  

 

 

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On 8/2/2018 at 4:39 PM, ShowStopper said:

probably a good thing he’s throwing those picks now. Let him make his mistakes now, learn from them and grow.

 

I like the optimism... but it's not like he's sowing his oats-----dipping his noodle as much as possible to "get it out of his system"----and preparing for marriage. I see him as super-talented, but the talent is buried beneath inexperience in the NFL.

 

32 minutes ago, sportsfreak2744 said:

 

It would be one thing if this were a new struggle for him, but 29 INT in 32 college games says otherwise. 

 

I think many owners are expecting passes like this (below) nonstop, forgetting that NFL defensive backs are some of the most athletic demons in the world. With both THill and Watkins, I see Mahomes completing these bombs, yet plenty of interceptions await. I'm all over targeting the DBs playing against Mahomes. That said, I love what these bombs will due to open the field for Hunt.

 

BkiCq0.gif

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Regarding interceptions:

53 minutes ago, sportsfreak2744 said:

 

It would be one thing if this were a new struggle for him, but 29 INT in 32 college games says otherwise.  

 

 

 

 

It is short-sighted to cite only the number of games he played in rather than consider the number of opportunities (passing attempts).

 

I am concerned about interceptions for any rookie.

 

Peyton Manning

Threw 28 INTs on 575 attempts (0.0487 INT rate per Attempt, almost 1 every 20 attempts) his rookie season.

NFL Total: 251 INTs on 9,380 attempts: 0.0268 rate

His college numbers at Tennessee were 33 career INTs on 1381 attempts (0.0239 rate).

 

Alex Smith

Threw 11 INTs on 165 attempts (0.0667  INT rate per attempt, over 1 every 20 attempts) his rookie season. 

NFL Total: 96 INTs on 4,613 attempts: 0.0201 rate

His college numbers at Utah were 8 career INTs on 587 attempts (0.0136 rate).

 

Sam Bradford

Threw 15 INTs on 590 attempts (0.0254 INT rate per attempt, about 1 every 40 attempts) his rookie season.

NFL Total: 57 INTs on 2,887 attempts: 0.0197 rate

His college numbers at Oklahoma were 16 career INTs on 893 attempts (0.0179 rate).

 

Matthew Stafford

Threw 20 INTs on 377 attempts (.0531 INT rate per attempt, over 1 every 20 attempts) his rookie season.

NFL Total 118 INTs on 4,850 attempts: 0.0243 rate

His college numbers at Georgia were 33 career INTs on 987 attempts (0.0334 rate).

 

Baker Mayfield

College numbers at Texas Tech and Oklahoma were 30 career INTs on 1,497 attempts (0.0200 INT rate per attempt, 1 every 50 attempts).

 

Patrick Mahomes II

Threw 1 INT on 35 attempts in a garbage time game his rookie year; has him off to a .0286 interception rate, 1 ever 35 attempts.

His college numbers at Texas Tech were 29 INTs on 1,349 attempts (.0215 rate)

 

 

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23 minutes ago, cohenstantinople said:

 

I like the optimism... but it's not like he's sowing his oats-----dipping his noodle as much as possible to "get it out of his system"----and preparing for marriage. I see him as super-talented, but the talent is buried beneath inexperience in the NFL.

 

 

I think many owners are expecting passes like this (below) nonstop, forgetting that NFL defensive backs are some of the most athletic demons in the world. With both THill and Watkins, I see Mahomes completing these bombs, yet plenty of interceptions await. I'm all over targeting the DBs playing against Mahomes. That said, I love what these bombs will due to open the field for Hunt.

 

BkiCq0.gif

 

Uh, well.....

 

original.gif

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26 minutes ago, cohenstantinople said:

 

That said, I love what these bombs will due to open the field for Hunt.

 

Great point

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8 minutes ago, Goatstain3 said:

 

Uh, well.....

 

original.gif

 

Delete this right now

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Man this guy can sling it.  That TD to Tyreek last night was a thing of beauty.  Mahomes and the Chiefs are going to be a fun team to watch this season.  Mahomes will be headlining the highlight reels consistently with his 50+ yard bombs and scrambling ability on the ground. 

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been noodling with waiting on the qb and snaggin' this cat.  last night gives no pause to that strategy  ... only problem is i just know some dumbarse with a qb already rostered is gonna ish on my draft by pluckin' Homes as his second qb.  

 

a reach may be fast approaching. 

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1 hour ago, pastorofmuppets2 said:

been noodling with waiting on the qb and snaggin' this cat.  last night gives no pause to that strategy  ... only problem is i just know some dumbarse with a qb already rostered is gonna ish on my draft by pluckin' Homes as his second qb.  

 

a reach may be fast approaching. 

 

He was ok last night, not great. He threw a beautiful TD and a brutal interception. Take what you want out of it. 

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7 minutes ago, South Carolina said:

 

He was ok last night, not great. He threw a beautiful TD and a brutal interception. Take what you want out of it. 

as far as fantasy football is concerned, he was great

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6 minutes ago, South Carolina said:

 

He was ok last night, not great. He threw a beautiful TD and a brutal interception. Take what you want out of it. 

 

i hear ya, but i've never had a top tier qb any time i've won a 'chip ... tempting this year cuz i love Watson so much, but i won't blow third/fourth rd capital on him ... what i really dig about Homes is the system/talent/cast/coach - which is pretty much the grand slam.

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2 minutes ago, TommyKramer said:

as far as fantasy football is concerned, he was great

 

Unfortunately we don't get points for preseason games. 

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2 minutes ago, pastorofmuppets2 said:

 

i hear ya, but i've never had a top tier qb any time i've won a 'chip ... tempting this year cuz i love Watson so much, but i won't blow third/fourth rd capital on him ... what i really dig about Homes is the system/talent/cast/coach - which is pretty much the grand slam.

 

Exactly. In most mocks, I've been able to pair him up with guys like Luck, Big Ben, and Philip Rivers. I might take that same approach. Just a win-win for where he is being drafted right now.

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