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Zig Zag

Domingo Santana 2018 Outlook

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2 minutes ago, El_Chingon said:

Yep.  But how many guys start slow in April but then are allowed to turn it around, instead of benched and then sent down.

 

Those guys aren't on first place teams in tough divisions.  Every win matters right now.  Brewers fans won't worry about Domingo's development if they can make a nice playoff run.  Let him work on things and turn it around in AAA and come back ready to rake once the PT situation clears up.  Right move for the team even if it's not great for fantasy owners.

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2 minutes ago, tonycpsu said:

 

Those guys aren't on first place teams in tough divisions.  Every win matters right now.  Brewers fans won't worry about Domingo's development if they can make a nice playoff run.  Let him work on things and turn it around in AAA and come back ready to rake once the PT situation clears up.  Right move for the team even if it's not great for fantasy owners.

Not disputing this was right move for brewers.  You saying he needs to "work on things" or build his confidence or development is what I disagree with.  He is the same guy as last year just needs daily at bats in Milwaukee or elsewhere to produce the same as last year.

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I heard an interview with Counsell early in the season and he said they gave Domingo instructions on cutting down K rate in offseason.  Well that 30% is up to 32%.  My guess is they got Yelich/Cain with thinking they would have a deal in place for Domingo or Braun that fell through.  Coupled with some other guys like Aguilar breaking out and dropping his K rate 6% you see kind of what the Brewers wanted to do with their roster.  

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1 hour ago, tonycpsu said:

Definitely the right move given the emergence of Aguilar.  He and Thames deserve everyday PAs, but Domingo needs them as well so he can try to find that next level that we've only seen glimpses of, and there's nothing like a stay in Colorado Springs to build some confidence.

They need to trade him cause he sure as hell doesn’t  need a confidence boost. Nothing wrong becoming the odd man out but this is just straight disrespectful coming from the Brewers. I’d make things as difficult as possible if I were him in hopes of being able to escape this franchise and start anew. Dang. 

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20 minutes ago, tonycpsu said:

 

image.thumb.png.a3581da1f4adbbd75e5844c9d6d1314a.png

 

They went out and got two stud free agents at very reasonable prices.  If the cost is that one of their young emerging players has to spend some time waiting for someone to get hurt, well, I think they'll take that if it means they make a nice run in the playoffs.

 

I'd happily take that sort of butchery from my team.

 

He was coming off a great year last season.  They needed SP then and still do.  He should have been traded then, or some time in April.  Now he’s basically organizational depth.  Though they are having a good season, Their record is irrelevant.  If I have an asset on my fantasy team and wait too long to trade him, I’ve wasted his value.  Doesn’t matter if I’m in first or last 

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They did reach out to some teams about Domingo but didn't like what they were getting back. Cain isn't exactly a youngster out they're and we know Braun's story, so it's not not like having an elite OF4 was a bad idea on paper. They just didn't imagine both Thames and Aguilar being so hot that they had to play every day, and I don't think most people did. You can't predict everything that's going to happen, and it's better to have too much depth than not enough. 

 

If they need to make a move to get a SP, they can still do that. Minor league chips are there, Domingo still probably has 80% of his value.. I think "they should have dealt him" is 20/20 hindsight. Where did *you* have Aguilar and Thames on your draft board? 

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1 hour ago, GC Tacos said:

They need to trade him cause he sure as hell doesn’t  need a confidence boost. Nothing wrong becoming the odd man out but this is just straight disrespectful coming from the Brewers. I’d make things as difficult as possible if I were him in hopes of being able to escape this franchise and start anew. Dang. 

 

They reportedly tried this offseason and there wasn't a market.

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They were trying to get like a pat Corbin for him.  There was a market, they just wanted too much.  Nobody had Thames and Aguilar high on fantasy draft boards because of the platoon threat.  Maybe holding onto him was the right move and they can get Dan Straily or bartolo Colon for him now.  If there really wasn’t a market then, it’s non existent now.  

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25 minutes ago, kidtwentytwo said:

They were trying to get like a pat Corbin for him.  There was a market, they just wanted too much.  Nobody had Thames and Aguilar high on fantasy draft boards because of the platoon threat.  Maybe holding onto him was the right move and they can get Dan Straily or bartolo Colon for him now.  If there really wasn’t a market then, it’s non existent now.  

Sorry, Corbin is too big of an ask for this guy yet you're ticked he's not playing? Should they have gone after some scrub?

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Yeah, let's remember what Corbin was during the offseason -- he had never really put together any long period of sustained success since his 2014 Tommy John surgery.  Even last year, he was just a 4-ish ERA and 1.40ish WHIP.  The fantasy market had his ADP in the 200s, around arms like Lance Lynn, Tanner Roark, and Tyler Chatwood.  If I was shopping Domingo and I couldn't get Corbin, I'd just stick with him.  Now that we know what Corbin has become this season, obviously the Brewers (and fantasy owners) would love to go back in time and make that deal, but given what the Brewers front office knew at the time, standing pat seems like it was the right move.

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27 minutes ago, BlueJaysIn2030 said:

Sorry, Corbin is too big of an ask for this guy yet you're ticked he's not playing? Should they have gone after some scrub?

 

Im not ticked hes not playing, im saying the brewers misplayed their hand and now he’s borderline worthless 

 

And fwiw I didn’t have him anywhere

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19 minutes ago, kidtwentytwo said:

Im not ticked hes not playing, im saying the brewers misplayed their hand and now he’s borderline worthless 

 

I'd hardly call an insurance policy against Braun and Cain injuries "worthless".  Cain might be hitting the DL soon with hammy issues, which means Domingo's stay in AAA could be a short one.

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21 minutes ago, kidtwentytwo said:

 

Im not ticked hes not playing, im saying the brewers misplayed their hand and now he’s borderline worthless 

 

And fwiw I didn’t have him anywhere

Why is he worthless? He hit 25/85 last season. I doubt GMs see him as worthless. 

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24 minutes ago, kidtwentytwo said:

 

Im not ticked hes not playing, im saying the brewers misplayed their hand and now he’s borderline worthless 

 

And fwiw I didn’t have him anywhere

 

Domingo didn't have to play like poop at the first sign of some competition in April.  I'm blaming him more than the Brewers.

He can always get it together in the minors and come back hitting in the second half.

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Guess we’ll have to agree to disagree.  I think his value has been lessened and they missed the boat.  Case can be made for holding onto him for depth, but they also have miller, Perez,  Thames, Broxton, and Phillips who can play OF.  Maybe holding onto him, not playing him, him sucking, and optioning him to AAA hasn’t made a difference or has decreased his arbitration dollars and has increased his value?  Who knows 

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Posted (edited)

I believe that Cleveland was talking about a Salazar for Santana swap, but Salazar's injury cropped up and that was that. [Removed Cool Story]

Edited by tonycpsu
Removed Cool Story

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Reading back through this, I think I mostly agree with both @kidtwentytwo and @tonycpsu, though you seem to be talking around each other instead of conceding the points.

 

@kidtwentytwo is basically arguing that the Brewers overplayed their hand, and I agree with that.  The timing of everything was the perfect storm to completely undercut any efforts to trade Santana for a pitcher.  What's the harm in telling Cain and his agent that they're going to sign him, hell even sign him, and put a gag order on it for a few weeks?  I get the onus to trade for Yelich (especially for the package they gave up), but acquiring either Yelich or Cain didn't undercut them - acquiring both at the same time led any buyer to basically play chicken with the Brewers over the value of Santana.

 

@tonycpsu is focusing on the results and saying the team is winning, so how badly can they really have screwed things up when they're on track for the playoffs?  I get that angle, I just find myself more in agreement with @kidtwentytwo given how they undercut themselves at the time and how it's all played out to date.  Younger guys especially can have their heads messed with when the playing time is rather sporadic, and I'm not referring to the total volume of ABs - I'm referring to the feeling of coming to the park everyday and knowing your name is in the lineup.  Outside of Yelich and Cain, none of those guys knew that.  I think that's a lot more impactful on a 25YO who just broke out the prior year than it is to a guy like Braun who's been in the league a decade plus and battled a lot of injuries and had baked in days off the last few years to try to keep him healthy.

 

It's easy for us to say, "Well suck it up kid.  You're a professional athlete - PRODUCE!"  Fact remains these guys are human beings.

 

Santana was crap in 2017 in April, posting a .197/.310/.465 line (you could argue the slugging was solid despite the lack of AVG), and then proceeded to smoke May, June, and July before a slight stepback in August and a strong finish in September.  This year in April, he hit .235/.315/.259, which is positively putrid without the slugging to redeem the line.  But his May saw him bounce right back with a .292/.346/.500 line.  From ~ May 25th onward, his playing time gets jerked around, and he ends up getting demoted.  I don't think that's the best handling of a 25 YO who was one of your best players last year, but I get that the team is trying to win games as well.  

 

Ultimately, I think the Brewers overplayed their hand in the offseason, assuming Santana was worth more than the market would bear, especially after they undercut their own bargaining position by adding both Cain and Yelich.  It will be interesting to see if they look to move him at the deadline, or if they hold him until the offseason.  This logjam isn't clearing anytime soon with Braun signed through 2021 and Cain and Yelich through 2022.  To me, beyond Clint Frazier, Santana is probably the biggest impact bat that could be playing in a different locale in the second half (that's not currently owned in all leagues a la Machado).

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You make some valid points, @JFS179, but I feel like the "they overplayed their hand" position needs to be backed up with a counterfactual of who they might have been able to get.  The only data points I'm aware of are that they were shopping him, and that he apparently wasn't enough to get Patrick Corbin.  Given that Corbin hadn't shown anything near what he's shown this season, who could they have reasonably gotten?

 

Your point about undercutting their bargaining position is correct, but when opportunities like those come up to get such impact players, I think you have to take them and worry about the bean counting later.  I don't see logistically how they could have known they were going to get a chance to be in on both Cain and Yelich, and they certainly weren't going to tell those guys to wait around while they shopped Domingo.

 

But the most important point to me is that the only reason we're talking about any of this is that all of Braun, Cain, Yelich, Thames, and Aguilar were all 100% healthy and absolutely raking when he was sent down.  If you simulate the Brewers season 100 times, how many times does that happen?  Aguilar had some nice stretches last year, but nobody saw *this* coming.  Meanwhile, we know Braun's injury history, and now Cain is on the DL, which he's no stranger to...  Thames only played in 138 games last season and missed a lot of time this year...  In other words, if all Domingo was for them was an insurance policy that covered injuries or declines in production to any two of their five 1B/OF bats, doesn't that have at least as much value as the 4th/5th starter they could have hypothetically gotten?  They're 4th in team ERA right now, and yeah, maybe that's playing a bit above their heads, but if they're really a contender, they're far better off packaging Domingo (at whatever his value is at the deadline) and one of their many impact prospects to go get a front of the rotation rental arm.

 

I really think they did the right thing here.  Their OF/1B surplus only looks like a problem because a series of unlikely things has happened.  And they still have Domingo and can showcase him for a trade any time they'd like.  I'm not a Milwaukee fan and don't own any shares of Domingo, but this looks like an organization that spent money wisely, and is well-positioned to make more moves for a deep playoff run.

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They like Santana so much, they saved Brad Miller from DFA land and called up Broxton when Cain went on the DL.  They just keep burying Santana further.  Maybe they can pull a Jorge Soler type deal in the off season?   

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Was pulled from his minor league game, if he is in fact being dealt I could see him having value down the stretch if he's getting everyday ABs

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Looks like they might have played this just about perfectly. I was bashing them for signing too many OF and no pitching, and it is another reason I don’t work for an mlb team. 

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17 hours ago, TrueToTheBlue said:

Was pulled from his minor league game, if he is in fact being dealt I could see him having value down the stretch if he's getting everyday ABs

 

I agree - if he lands in a spot that just leaves him alone and lets him play.  He's hitting .298/.419/.464 at AAA overall, but he's been on fire lately with a .394 AVG, 3 HRs, and a 12/8 K/BB ratio over his last 10.

 

If he's indeed going to the Blue Jays for Happ, does he get that everyday PT?

 

ETA - Twins have also been rumored as a trade partner for the Brewers.

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Just now, JFS179 said:

 

I agree - if he lands in a spot that just leaves him alone and lets him play.  He's hitting .298/.419/.464 at AAA overall, but he's been on fire lately with a .394 AVG, 3 HRs, and a 12/8 K/BB ratio over his last 10.

 

If he's indeed going to the Blue Jays for Happ, does he get that everyday PT?

He would. Teoscsr, Santana and Grichuk/Granderson. I'd love for the Jays to get Santana, really dig that guy. 

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