DoTheRoar

Joey Votto 2018 Outlook

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4 hours ago, Philoumenos said:

This is kind of true, but also really kind of not.

 

This is likely going to be the worst Reds team in at least a few years. It's certainly projected to be the worst run-scoring team since the 2015 team at least (if things went real south, it could be the worst since 2014).

 

They scored something like 3.95 runs per game in 2015 when they went 64–98, and this year's iteration is projected to score around 4.03 runs per game. And that 4.03 is a clear drop-off from their 4.65 runs per game last year. 4.03 runs per game this year would put them in the bottom five of MLB, whereas the 4.65 mark last year had them squarely in the middle of the pack as a run-scoring team (14th actually). Whether the team is actually worse, or they just played way above their own heads last year, this is most definitely worse than last year at least.

 

Will that impact Votto? Probably not. When they completely blew in 2015, he still put up a 7 WAR season. Let's just hope this team doesn't end up worse than that one though.

 

Projections are fine, but what is actually different about the 2018 Reds vs the 2017 team? The starting 8 are literally the same outside of Cozart leaving and Peraza playing more regularly. That is a downgrade no doubt, but is Cozart to Peraza really worth 0.6 runs per game? I highly doubt that. 

 

And that's not even counting any possible improvements - Winker is an OBP machine and is playing fairly regularly. Senzel is likely coming up soon and could be an even more effective hitter than the outgoing Cozart. 

 

I just don't see the player movement / loss of talent to justify the projection being so much lower than 2017. It's not the prettiest or most dangerous group, but all I'm saying is it never was, and there's no reason to think this team is much more impotent than last season's. 

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23 minutes ago, handyandy86 said:

 

Projections are fine, but what is actually different about the 2018 Reds vs the 2017 team? The starting 8 are literally the same outside of Cozart leaving and Peraza playing more regularly. That is a downgrade no doubt, but is Cozart to Peraza really worth 0.6 runs per game? I highly doubt that. 

 

And that's not even counting any possible improvements - Winker is an OBP machine and is playing fairly regularly. Senzel is likely coming up soon and could be an even more effective hitter than the outgoing Cozart. 

 

I just don't see the player movement / loss of talent to justify the projection being so much lower than 2017. It's not the prettiest or most dangerous group, but all I'm saying is it never was, and there's no reason to think this team is much more impotent than last season's. 

Uh, what's different is exactly what you're trying to handwave away.

 

Cozart put together a 5 WAR campaign last year. However much regression you think he's due for this year, taking him out and plugging in Peraza is a significant downgrade. Peraza is a really crummy hitter, and looking at his profile, I don't see much of anything to be excited about. 

 

Conversely, Suarez is really pretty good, but he just lost time to that thumb injury. And he was projected as the team's only other All-Star level type candidate anyways.

 

And sure, there could be improvements. Senzel, assuming he actually gets the call (which I still doubt), is probably better than some of the other IF other options they have. But they also look like they could get regression from some previously decent performers last year (like Scooty).

 

I think it's pretty easy to look at this group and see a worse team than last year's version, especially without Cozart playing out of his mind. I don't think this is a team that's going to finish anywhere remotely near the middle of MLB in offensive production again. Does that matter for Votto? I dunno, I guess it probably doesn't that much, since like I said, he's produced well in their previously really s--- years. 

Edited by Philoumenos
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9 hours ago, Philoumenos said:

Uh, what's different is exactly what you're trying to handwave away.

 

Cozart put together a 5 WAR campaign last year. However much regression you think he's due for this year, taking him out and plugging in Peraza is a significant downgrade. Peraza is a really crummy hitter, and looking at his profile, I don't see much of anything to be excited about. 

 

I'm not handwaving, I'm saying I don't believe a projections that says this team is 0.6+ runs worse per game than last year's.  Is your position that Cozart is going to contribute 0.6 runs/game more than Peraza?  I don't think there's any way to support that with data.  If you take a really simplistic calculation, like Cozart's R+RBI vs. Peraza's R+RBI from last year (both right around 500 ABs), you get a run differential of only 56 (about 0.35 runs/game).  If you want to talk WAR and their "Offensive Batting and Base Running Runs Scored" above average metric, Cozart was a 25.3 to Peraza's -22.2, which is a run differential of 47.5 runs, again only about 0.3 runs/game.

 

You can argue that some players might regress in that lineup, but the only actual year-over-year difference is going from Cozart to Peraza, and that doesn't support such a huge drop in run production.  Even using the model that is the most flattering to Cozart's season, you still need to lose another 50+ runs from the team with the same exact players otherwise.  It could happen with regression, but that's also not taking anyone's progression into account either (Winker for example has +9 runs scored above replacement in just over 200 MLB AB's taking away PT from Duvall and Schebler, who combined to be negative runs last year).

 

I guess my overall point is that this team is maybe very marginally worse than last year's, and I don't see a reason to worry about Votto because of it.  It's not like a case of the Marlins trading away every star player, it's basically the same team from last year.  And every other junky Reds team Votto has played with.  

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Let’s also consider when discussing the loss of Cozy that a chunk of that oWAR comes from clearing the bases 23 times on homers from the 2 spot in the order directly before JV’s turn in the order. If anything I think fantasy Joey probably benefits from the speedy singles guy even if the OBP is lower just because he will be on the actual bases just as much when Joey is at the plate and is more likely to score on an XBH and leave any of the 8,9, 1 batters on than a guy hitting homers and doubles.

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1 hour ago, BleedRedsRed said:

Let’s also consider when discussing the loss of Cozy that a chunk of that oWAR comes from clearing the bases 23 times on homers from the 2 spot in the order directly before JV’s turn in the order. If anything I think fantasy Joey probably benefits from the speedy singles guy even if the OBP is lower just because he will be on the actual bases just as much when Joey is at the plate and is more likely to score on an XBH and leave any of the 8,9, 1 batters on than a guy hitting homers and doubles.

 

No.  Even if you take away the homers, Cozart ran a substantially higher OBP.

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1 hour ago, 89Topps said:

 

No.  Even if you take away the homers, Cozart ran a substantially higher OBP.

 

Right but he’s also driving in guys that would still be there for Votto. Not saying the difference is in favor but I think it’s more or less a wash for Joey’s fantasy numbers

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Just now, BleedRedsRed said:

 

Right but he’s also driving in guys that would still be there for Votto. Not saying the difference is in favor but I think it’s more or less a wash for Joey’s fantasy numbers

 

I really don't think so.

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I don't care about the line-up.

 

Buy low window has closed if there was ever even a gap.

 

Mercy:

 

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5 minutes ago, Fenamo said:

I don't care about the line-up.

 

Buy low window has closed if there was ever even a gap.

 

Mercy:

 

Agreed. Bye bye thread, nothing to talk about anymore.

 

Joey is Joey again.

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22 minutes ago, 89Topps said:

 

I really don't think so.

 

I suppose but I’m at the game and just watched Joey hit a 3 run bomb because Peraza is fast and beat out a double play ball.

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6 hours ago, handyandy86 said:

 

I'm not handwaving, I'm saying I don't believe a projections that says this team is 0.6+ runs worse per game than last year's.  Is your position that Cozart is going to contribute 0.6 runs/game more than Peraza?  I don't think there's any way to support that with data.  If you take a really simplistic calculation, like Cozart's R+RBI vs. Peraza's R+RBI from last year (both right around 500 ABs), you get a run differential of only 56 (about 0.35 runs/game).  If you want to talk WAR and their "Offensive Batting and Base Running Runs Scored" above average metric, Cozart was a 25.3 to Peraza's -22.2, which is a run differential of 47.5 runs, again only about 0.3 runs/game.

 

You can argue that some players might regress in that lineup, but the only actual year-over-year difference is going from Cozart to Peraza, and that doesn't support such a huge drop in run production.  Even using the model that is the most flattering to Cozart's season, you still need to lose another 50+ runs from the team with the same exact players otherwise.  It could happen with regression, but that's also not taking anyone's progression into account either (Winker for example has +9 runs scored above replacement in just over 200 MLB AB's taking away PT from Duvall and Schebler, who combined to be negative runs last year).

 

I guess my overall point is that this team is maybe very marginally worse than last year's, and I don't see a reason to worry about Votto because of it.  It's not like a case of the Marlins trading away every star player, it's basically the same team from last year.  And every other junky Reds team Votto has played with.  

I'm not sure why you're so fixated on Cozart. It makes for something of an unconvincing argument, when you clearly can look at the projections and see why they're projected to be 0.6~ runs worse than last year. 

 

Was the loss of Cozart alone going to cut 0.6 runs/per game from their offense? No, since he's going to have some regression himself. But again, the projected and quite possible regression of Suarez and Scooter and Duvall, and with the addition of a full-time Peraza could quite easily do it. And as for Peraza himself, again, he's a gutter-tier IF that has almost no redeeming qualities to his offensive game aside from a little speed. Losing a player who put up the 11th most valuable season among NL (19th overall), and replacing him with Peraza just seems like an obvious loss in terms of on-base presence and ineup quality. 

 

But sure, I agree and have said repeatedly, it probably doesn't matter for Votto since he's performed on dumpster-tier teams before.

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51 minutes ago, BleedRedsRed said:

 

I suppose but I’m at the game and just watched Joey hit a 3 run bomb because Peraza is fast and beat out a double play ball.

 

Peraza's OBP is a putrid .290.  One off examples of him beating out a double play (where he essentially just replaced himself at 1B, no?) don't dispute that.

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Votto skeptics in here be like:

 

"Wow 4 hits in the last 3 games and 3 of them HRs??? Clearly selling out for power. Too old to keep up anymore. Sell while you can still even get anything. I've been saying this for years. He's clearly disinterested at the plate."

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