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Homerj24

David Price 2018 Outlook

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Was hurt most of the year, but finished  strong in the pen. Went into the off-season healthy. Can we expect a rebound 2018?

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5 hours ago, Homerj24 said:

Was hurt most of the year, but finished  strong in the pen. Went into the off-season healthy. Can we expect a rebound 2018?

 

I doubt that he got healthy in his head.  AKA a new attitude.  He was clubhouse poison last season.  Expect the same this season until proven otherwise.  And if it is the same he will be too busy at war with booth announcers, the media and fans to stay focused on baseball.

 

Price is a perfect example where all the stats in the world and all the underlying sabermetrics yadda yadda will do you no good because it depends so much on whether he remains a headcase or not.

Edited by The Big Bat Theory
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It's weird he wasn't like that anywhere else, it takes a special kind of cat to deal with the Boston media, I think they are the hardest to deal with in MLB

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1 minute ago, azeri98 said:

It's weird he wasn't like that anywhere else, it takes a special kind of cat to deal with the Boston media, I think they are the hardest to deal with in MLB

 

True that though Phily is a tough city too.  That's east coast baseball though.  Don't go to those two cities or New York either unless you have a thick hide.

 

And Price doesn't.  He went off his rocker after booth announcer Dennis Eckersley made a pretty darn mild comment.  It wasn't something off the wall or even about Price as I recall.  Eckersley was being honest in a pretty polite way and Price went ballistic and attacked a very well-liked announcer and Hall of Fame member over basically nothing trying to humiliate him in front of the whole team on a plane flight.  It was crazy and he was in the wrong and was never man enough to apologize for his outburst but dug his heels in and made it worse. 

 

He has a big hole to crawl out of in Boston at this point.  So my Magic 8 Ball sees trouble ahead in 2018.

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2 minutes ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

 

True that though Phily is a tough city too.  That's east coast baseball though.  Don't go to those two cities or New York either unless you have a thick hide.

 

And Price doesn't.  He went off his rocker after booth announcer Dennis Eckersley made a pretty darn mild comment.  It wasn't something off the wall or even about Price as I recall.  Eckersley was being honest in a pretty polite way and Price went ballistic and attacked a very well-liked announcer and Hall of Fame member over basically nothing trying to humiliate him in front of the whole team on a plane flight.  It was crazy and he was in the wrong and was never man enough to apologize for his outburst but dug his heels in and made it worse. 

 

He has a big hole to crawl out of in Boston at this point.  So my Magic 8 Ball sees trouble ahead in 2018.

I think under performing his contract was getting to him and he was hearing it from everybody and the Eck comment just set him off. I think if he can get off to a decent start he might be ok but if he doesn't it will just snowball from there

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4 hours ago, azeri98 said:

I think under performing his contract was getting to him and he was hearing it from everybody and the Eck comment just set him off. I think if he can get off to a decent start he might be ok but if he doesn't it will just snowball from there

 

Wasn't the Eck comment about ERod's rehab start where he said yuck or something like that?

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9 minutes ago, Triple Short Of a Cycle said:

 

Wasn't the Eck comment about ERod's rehab start where he said yuck or something like that?

 

Yeah I think it was.  Good memory.  E-Rod got shelled horribly in that rehab and there was worry as a result in that rehab start.  And Eck was saying yuck -- and a quick, quiet yuck, not some of the end of the world yuck -- to the shelling, not to E-Rod.  It wasn't some attack on Eduardo in the least.  More like "He got hit that hard?  Yuck" as in "bummer" or "oh my" as in a passing comment type of thing.  But then Price had to stick his nose in and explode the situation.

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I'm a big fan of Price this year. His value is unbelievably ow for his upside. He finished the year healthy, it shouldn't be much of a concern, or at least shouldn't be more of a concern than other pitchers. This is especially true if he's pitching unrestricted in Spring Training. At worst you are looking at mid 3's ERA with elite strikeouts. At best he is a potential Cy Young winner. Price's NFBC ADP is 126 overall (34 among SP). I will be all over him at that price as my SP3. If he delivers something like 170 innings, 170 K, 3.5 ERA that is easy profit at that point. His potential is far beyond that.

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16 minutes ago, Sidearmer said:

I'm a big fan of Price this year. His value is unbelievably ow for his upside. He finished the year healthy, it shouldn't be much of a concern, or at least shouldn't be more of a concern than other pitchers. This is especially true if he's pitching unrestricted in Spring Training. At worst you are looking at mid 3's ERA with elite strikeouts. At best he is a potential Cy Young winner. Price's NFBC ADP is 126 overall (34 among SP). I will be all over him at that price as my SP3. If he delivers something like 170 innings, 170 K, 3.5 ERA that is easy profit at that point. His potential is far beyond that.

You are correct. You won't get an SP that late in the draft that can provide SP1 numbers. I'll have Price on quite a few teams. 

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On 2/3/2018 at 1:30 PM, Sidearmer said:

I'm a big fan of Price this year. His value is unbelievably ow for his upside. He finished the year healthy, it shouldn't be much of a concern, or at least shouldn't be more of a concern than other pitchers. This is especially true if he's pitching unrestricted in Spring Training. At worst you are looking at mid 3's ERA with elite strikeouts. At best he is a potential Cy Young winner. Price's NFBC ADP is 126 overall (34 among SP). I will be all over him at that price as my SP3. If he delivers something like 170 innings, 170 K, 3.5 ERA that is easy profit at that point. His potential is far beyond that.

 

On 2/3/2018 at 1:48 PM, Fuzzy_Slippers said:

You are correct. You won't get an SP that late in the draft that can provide SP1 numbers. I'll have Price on quite a few teams. 

where are you drafting him?  after 100?

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Price reeks of a veteran stud coming off one bad year after years of consistency.  Definitely buying if there's a good discount.

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Easy to bet on this year, especially with most pitchers with an ADP >100 having some question marks.  He's never been available below top 50 let alone top 100. 

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43 minutes ago, jfazz23 said:

 

where are you drafting him?  after 100?

His NFBC ADP is 119, the 31st SP off the board, I can even see him falling a bit more. For a guy who has top 15 upside and was a rock for so many years I'm gonna take a chance on him as my SP3 if I can get him in the double digit rounds. But i guess it all depends on who I get in front of him. Would need a solid 1-2 in order to take the chance on Price.

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If he lasts til the 9th or 10th round in my draft I'll be taking him for sure. I couldn't agree more with @brockpapersizer's point that this reeks like a situation where a veteran was consistently good, then had one bad year, and bounces back to the level of consistency we're accustomed to seeing. His numbers don't really jump out at me and indicate that he's not capable of putting up really good fantasy numbers anymore. In his 2 seasons with the Sox he's still getting guys to swing and miss and his contact numbers are right in line with his career stats. He did issue more free passes last year and allow more fly balls than his career averages but the numbers were similar to what he's done in years past that were accompanied by much lower ERA and fantasy stats. Couple that with the fact that he was coming back from injury last year and that he pitched out of the bullpen which could have had an effect on the way he pitched. 

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36 minutes ago, BostonCajun said:

If he lasts til the 9th or 10th round in my draft I'll be taking him for sure. I couldn't agree more with @brockpapersizer's point that this reeks like a situation where a veteran was consistently good, then had one bad year, and bounces back to the level of consistency we're accustomed to seeing. His numbers don't really jump out at me and indicate that he's not capable of putting up really good fantasy numbers anymore. In his 2 seasons with the Sox he's still getting guys to swing and miss and his contact numbers are right in line with his career stats. He did issue more free passes last year and allow more fly balls than his career averages but the numbers were similar to what he's done in years past that were accompanied by much lower ERA and fantasy stats. Couple that with the fact that he was coming back from injury last year and that he pitched out of the bullpen which could have had an effect on the way he pitched. 

If he's there in the 9th or 10th, I'm grabbing him right away. Fantastic value. 

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Managed to grab Price in round 13 pick 4 of our latest 10 team mock. So he looks like a great buy low candidate right now though I suspect as we get closer and closer to ST and opening day there will be a market correction of sorts and his adp will adjust to the point where there won't be a ton of value. Especially if he has a nice ST. 

Edited by DidiFan
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1 hour ago, DidiFan said:

Managed to grab Price in round 13 pick 4 of our latest 10 team mock. So he looks like a great buy low candidate right now though I suspect as we get closer and closer to ST and opening day there will be a market correction of sorts and his adp will adjust to the point where there won't be a ton of value. Especially if he has a nice ST. 

 

Spring training is his kind of thing.  He has a guaranteed rotation spot and the games don't count.  He has always performed best when there is no pressure on him. 

 

But he will fall apart again when the games mean something.  Or start to claim fake injuries again.  He is Clay Buchholz 2.0.  He doesn't want the ball when the pressure is on because he can't handle it.  As a result he could get off to decent start first couple of months but then the collapse is inevitable.

Edited by The Big Bat Theory
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48 minutes ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

 

Spring training is his kind of thing.  He has a guaranteed rotation spot and the games don't count.  He has always performed best when there is no pressure on him. 

 

But he will fall apart again when the games mean something.  Or start to claim fake injuries again.  He is Clay Buchholz 2.0.  He doesn't want the ball when the pressure is on because he can't handle it.  As a result he could get off to decent start first couple of months but then the collapse is inevitable.

Yeah I agree with you the - possibility of him under performing is very real and with his penchant of performing well in ST any perceived value in adp as of now will most likely evaporate come draft day. We've all seen this story a bunch where a proven vet comes off an injury or down year and the following spring we get the puff pieces coming out saying he feels great, best shape ever etc etc. I'm anticipating the same sort of thing with Price here. It'll be interesting to follow though

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1 hour ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

 

Spring training is his kind of thing.  He has a guaranteed rotation spot and the games don't count.  He has always performed best when there is no pressure on him. 

 

But he will fall apart again when the games mean something.  Or start to claim fake injuries again.  He is Clay Buchholz 2.0.  He doesn't want the ball when the pressure is on because he can't handle it.  As a result he could get off to decent start first couple of months but then the collapse is inevitable.

i feel you are anti Price simply because you are a sox fan and you dont like him

 

i do not think you are being objective here.  just my $0.02

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16 minutes ago, DidiFan said:

Yeah I agree with you the - possibility of him under performing is very real and with his penchant of performing well in ST any perceived value in adp as of now will most likely evaporate come draft day. We've all seen this story a bunch where a proven vet comes off an injury or down year and the following spring we get the puff pieces coming out saying he feels great, best shape ever etc etc. I'm anticipating the same sort of thing with Price here. It'll be interesting to follow though

 

If he disappoints below market value it will hurt a lot less than previous years. Seems like a good investment if he's healthy and looks good in spring. If he was going as an ace or very high end sp2 as before, then I would agree but he's not.

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Just now, brockpapersizer said:

 

If he disappoints below market value it will hurt a lot less than previous years. Seems like a good investment if he's healthy and looks good in spring. If he was going as an ace or very high end sp2 as before, then I would agree but he's not.

if he were a stock he would be low risk high reward

 

potential for huge profit.

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2 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

If he disappoints below market value it will hurt a lot less than previous years. Seems like a good investment if he's healthy and looks good in spring. If he was going as an ace or very high end sp2 as before, then I would agree but he's not.

If his adp sticks to close to where it is now sure he's a very good value. But I just suspect that the closer we get it will rise to the point where a median projection season from him won't give you a ton of profit. 

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5 hours ago, jfazz23 said:

i feel you are anti Price simply because you are a sox fan and you dont like him

 

i do not think you are being objective here.  just my $0.02

 

I don't even know what that means.  I don't like him because I've seen his act up close.  I've watched every inning he has pitched in Boston and know the drill.  That is why many Sox fans don't like him.  We wanted to like him, given the big contract among other reasons.  We excused a lot of things early on.  We never wanted to not like him.  Why would we not want him to do well?  But the truth is the truth.  He folds under pressure. 

 

Also he isn't the pitcher he was a few years back "stuff" wise.  He isn't remotely the same pitcher that used to give the Red Sox fits back when he was with Tampa Bay.

 

What is "objective" btw.  Definition please.  Someone who doesn't watch him on a regular basis?  How is that "objective" in any way shape or form?  You want him on your fantasy team then fine.  Good luck to you because you will need it.  Just know you are drafting Buchholz 2.0 and it that floats your boat then enjoy owning him.

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What have you seen exactly?  What I see is 8 full seasons in the MLB and only one "bad" one, which wasn't bad at all, just injury shortened.  I bet you weren't bitching in 2016 when he was winning 17 games and striking out 228 batters while being the workhorse (and a damn good one) he has been since his first full season.  There is no reason to think he won't go back to an above average option as long as healthy.

 

BTW - Buchholz has a career ERA of 4.01, Price is 3.22.  Buchholz cant hold Price's jock. 

Edited by jdbob11
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