AnonymousRob

Ryan Braun 2018 Outlook

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Right now Braun is going around #20 outfielder. I don't see any realistic way he gets any significant time at second, but it's plausible he gets enough work at first to gain yahoo eligibility. 

 

Steamer is projecting him to hit 20 bombs while only getting 421 PA's. On the unlikely chance he manages to stay healthy, there's some value to be had.

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OF20 isn't a whole lot of room for profit, though.  Even during his healthy seasons since 2013 he peaked around OF10.  Considering he's only stayed healthy 3 out of the last 5 seasons, I don't like the price at all.

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6 minutes ago, tonycpsu said:

OF20 isn't a whole lot of room for profit, though.  Even during his healthy seasons since 2013 he peaked around OF10.  Considering he's only stayed healthy 3 out of the last 5 seasons, I don't like the price at all.

Agreed. Rotowire has him listed at #23 OF going right now. That's not as low as I'd like if I'm going to buy in, but they also have Acuna, Inciarte, Eaton, Desmond, Polanco, Bruce, Kiermaier, Mazara, Cargo all behind him. I can see a few of those getting some spring training hype and rising above the boring and perceived has been Ryan Braun.

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your not going to get a real big discount because he still will steal 15ish bags in 135 games and will still hit 20+ bombs with solid counting stats and not kill your avg 

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I can't see myself drafting him. I believe Yelich, Cain and Santana are all better than him at this point. That leaves him at 1B, factor in the injury concern, he would have to fall significantly for me to even consider drafting him. 

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I agree with everyone here so far. Tough to see him fall to the point where he's a value pick simply due to name value alone. There is a definitely more to like here with the recent signings, as him hitting behind Cain and Yelich setting the table is a 110+ RBI setup barring health. Now, as we all know, him playing 140+ is 50/50 at best.

 

I don't see how these recent signings will help him fall under the radar as we need him to, and if you're drafting him where he is projected you are banking on health. Tough pill to swallow. The possibility of .300 30 and 110 is there, but it is a risk I can't see myself taking. 

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So the main concern here seems to be his injury history.

 

This is one area I don't care a ton about.  Here's why:

1) You can never predict injuries.  Sometimes players who've never been hurt get hurt unexpectedly.

2) chronically-injured players sometimes just start being healthy.  See Nelson Cruz.

3) You have a DL for a reason.  If you play the waiver wire, there's no reason you can't replace him for awhile.  Take the good stats while they're there.

 

In short, I think skills are skills.  Maybe injury history is worth a few spots up or down, depending on the context, but I don't let it influence my ranking or willingness to draft a player more than that.

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Depends on league configuration.  Last year all the chatter was about DL slots being at a premium, with many default league settings only having two slots.

 

Also kind of misleading to say "everybody hurts, YOLO" when some players have a history of being hurt more than others.  The biggest predictor of future injury is past injury.  That's been proven.

 

But yeah, if you've got 5 DL slots and play in a league shallow enough to have a reasonable replacement level, Braun in the 20-25 range could work out for you.  In a deeper league (12 or more teams with 5 OF) I just don't think it's a good bet.

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One more thing: the Brewers look like they're loading up for a serious playoff push this year, and have a lot more pieces around Braun than they have in past years.  Even if they do push him to 1B to make his defensive job easier, it's likely they'll want to give him a lot of rest, not just to avoid serious injury, but to make sure he enters a possible playoff run as close to 100% as possible.  In previous years they didn't really have the pieces around him to give him a breather -- now they seem to.  So even if he doesn't have a DL trip, he could get a PA total that makes it look like he had a couple of them.

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The GM from Mil was interviewed and said Braun is willing to play 1st or even give 2nd a try along with just staying in the OF. The added position eligibility would really make me think twice about drafting him. Something to watch for in Spring Training 

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Agreed.  He's not elite anymore, but Braun doesn't need to play 130+ to produce.  I actually think he always looks more refreshed when they give him some rest, which playing 1st Base would take some pressure off his legs/back.  Obviously, it's not ideal but I'd gladly take 4-5 starts from Braun per week and think his production would still be pretty good, especially in a deeper league.

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I feel like Braun always falls on draft day in my leagues because of the injury concerns. He was ranked around 30 last year and I got him at 70 in one league. Thought it was great value but he wasn’t healthy at all. Now he’s ranked around 100 where I don’t see a lot of value but if he falls to 130-150 then I can see myself going after him there. When he’s healthy he’s still great to have in your lineup. 

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4 hours ago, daethfromabove1979 said:

I feel like Braun always falls on draft day in my leagues because of the injury concerns. He was ranked around 30 last year and I got him at 70 in one league. Thought it was great value but he wasn’t healthy at all. Now he’s ranked around 100 where I don’t see a lot of value but if he falls to 130-150 then I can see myself going after him there. When he’s healthy he’s still great to have in your lineup. 

Agree with this.  He's more value in daily lineup changes than where you have to set your lineup for the week ahead of time.  

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Braun has played fewer than 135 games 3 times in his career, and one of those was his rookie year.

 

Looking at that, I don't think it's unreasonable to think he should be able to give you 135 games this year.  Especially if he plays a little 1B.  And, if he does that, I feel like it's not unreasonable to expect something close to his 2016 numbers.  Maybe even an uptick in Rs & RBIs batting in a better lineup.

 

A .290'ish hitter with 25-30 HRs, over 90 Rs & RBIs and 15 SBs to boot?  ESPN has him ranked 74th.  I don't hate that value.

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Very likely either he or another OF gets traded before opening day.  How do you play him at 1B ..they have Thames.  And 2B..you can't just develop him there in Spring training.

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13 minutes ago, KingJoffrey said:

Very likely either he or another OF gets traded before opening day.  How do you play him at 1B ..they have Thames.  And 2B..you can't just develop him there in Spring training.

 Very likely? His contract was backloaded. I doubt he is going anywhere.

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On ‎7‎-‎2‎-‎2018 at 1:04 AM, 89Topps said:

Braun has played fewer than 135 games 3 times in his career, and one of those was his rookie year.

 

Looking at that, I don't think it's unreasonable to think he should be able to give you 135 games this year.  Especially if he plays a little 1B.  And, if he does that, I feel like it's not unreasonable to expect something close to his 2016 numbers.  Maybe even an uptick in Rs & RBIs batting in a better lineup.

 

A .290'ish hitter with 25-30 HRs, over 90 Rs & RBIs and 15 SBs to boot?  ESPN has him ranked 74th.  I don't hate that value.

 

He's also going to be 1B eligible which I really like. How many 1B have the potential to hit 20+ HR with 15+ SB?

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I really dislike Braun but every freaking year he ends up on my team.  He's always sitting there 2 rounds after he should've been drafted (because everyone else dislikes him too) and I have to take him at that point.  He's such a headache to own but the production is usually there at the end of the year.  If by some miracle he plays a 150 games you're getting a 4th or 5th rounder in the 10th round.  Still, 120 games of Braun and 30 games of some waiver wire dude (you will miss out on some games in weekly leagues because Braun is one of those guys who always gets hurt on a Mon or Tues) will give you pretty good numbers.

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7 hours ago, Bill Blazejowski said:

I really dislike Braun but every freaking year he ends up on my team.  He's always sitting there 2 rounds after he should've been drafted (because everyone else dislikes him too) and I have to take him at that point.  He's such a headache to own but the production is usually there at the end of the year.  If by some miracle he plays a 150 games you're getting a 4th or 5th rounder in the 10th round.  Still, 120 games of Braun and 30 games of some waiver wire dude (you will miss out on some games in weekly leagues because Braun is one of those guys who always gets hurt on a Mon or Tues) will give you pretty good numbers.

 

 

Its reached a point now where his ADP has the risk baked into it, and like you said adding his 120 or 130 games played stats (hopefully!) with a replacement option you can find later nets you a very productive OF. I own him in a h2h league and certainly all the off days suck but when hes playing he produces, hes still got it at the plate and the steals he contribute do a good job of adding some value, even with the missed games. Curious to see how much 1B he plays and if that is able to aid his health season long. 

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On 3/20/2018 at 5:47 AM, Sine_cera said:

 

He's also going to be 1B eligible which I really like. How many 1B have the potential to hit 20+ HR with 15+ SB?

 

Goldschmidt, Myers.  Maybe Bellinger.  Maybe Desmond.  Certainly a rarity though, Braun has the ability to give you fairly unique stats at 1B.

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Does anyone have any insight into OF and 1b between Santana, Braun, Thames?

 

There are 1,458 PAs available between those two spots (162 games x 2 x 4.5).

 

Dividing that by 3 equals 486 PAs per player.  

 

Does that sound directionally accurate?

 

Only thing I'm sure of is that Thames isn't facing lhp.  But they still have rhb aguilar also.

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17 minutes ago, 96mnc said:

Does anyone have any insight into OF and 1b between Santana, Braun, Thames?

 

There are 1,458 PAs available between those two spots (162 games x 2 x 4.5).

 

Dividing that by 3 equals 486 PAs per player.  

 

Does that sound directionally accurate?

 

Only thing I'm sure of is that Thames isn't facing lhp.  But they still have rhb aguilar also.

 

Don't forget about DH.

 

That adds another 300 or so plate appearances.

 

So 1,700 split up three ways, factor in some injury time for the trio along injury/maintenance allowance for Cain and Yelich...looks about right!

 

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5 minutes ago, My Dinner With Andre said:

 

Don't forget about DH.

 

That adds another 300 or so plate appearances.

 

So 1,700 split up three ways, factor in some injury time for the trio along injury/maintenance allowance for Cain and Yelich...looks about right!

 

 

Don't know how your coming up the DH accounting for another 300 PAs.

 

I thought NL teams had 10 road games vs AL teams.  10 games x 1 x 4.5 looks like 45 PAs to me

 

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