AnonymousRob

Ryan Braun 2018 Outlook

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1 hour ago, 96mnc said:

Does anyone have any insight into OF and 1b between Santana, Braun, Thames?

 

There are 1,458 PAs available between those two spots (162 games x 2 x 4.5).

 

Dividing that by 3 equals 486 PAs per player.  

 

Does that sound directionally accurate?

 

Only thing I'm sure of is that Thames isn't facing lhp.  But they still have rhb aguilar also.

No way they sit Braun for those other guys unless it's for a general rest day.  Thames seems like the odd man out to me unless Braun can't play a lick of 1st base.

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1 hour ago, jb_power said:

 

Don't know how your coming up the DH accounting for another 300 PAs.

 

I thought NL teams had 10 road games vs AL teams.  10 games x 1 x 4.5 looks like 45 PAs to me

 

 

I got it from fangraphs.

 

Maybe it includes pinch-hitting PAs? But you're right now that I think about it it doesn't make any sense.

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21 minutes ago, Pitches Love Velocity said:

Braun to start at 1B vs lefties:

 

 

I really hope this leads to a healthier Braun throughout the season.  Throw in some DH appearances and 140 games played .280/85/25/90/15 with potential for a little more is not bad for a guy who's going in the 10th round.  Like someone else mentioned, the injury concerns are already baked into the price.

Edited by Bill Blazejowski

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Yeah, I love his value there.  You can even get him later.  If you are a round or 2 past his ADP and Braun is still there there grab him then get Thames at 180+ (or trade for him- he's cheap).  Their platoon is probably 2nd or 3rd round value with position flexibility between OF and 1B. Then when both are in the lineup (probably 1/2 the time) you get Braun's OF/DH at bats as a bonus.  It does require daily lineups and does take up an extra roster spot, and you will need is a serviceable 1B or OF for when only 1 of the 2 is playing, but I've pulled it off in a couple of leagues and feel good with the strategy. 

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So is Braun officially in a platoon ? I guess i was still kind of holding out hope that he would move to 1B/DH permanently and provide 600 AB.

 

 

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7 minutes ago, EmbargoLifted said:

So is Braun officially in a platoon ? I guess i was still kind of holding out hope that he would move to 1B/DH permanently and provide 600 AB.

 

 

 

I projecting each will get ~450 ABS.  Thames exclusively at 1B against righties. Braun will get ~150 or so against lefties at 1B, and ~300 as an OF/DH against righties.  The other 1500 (probably a little more) OF ABs will be split between Cain, Yelich and Santana.  Obviously injuries would change things.  

Edited by bluefrogguy

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8 minutes ago, EmbargoLifted said:

So is Braun officially in a platoon ? I guess i was still kind of holding out hope that he would move to 1B/DH permanently and provide 600 AB.

 

 

I think he get OF vs righties, so not an official platoon.

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1 hour ago, kwelch said:

I think he get OF vs righties, so not an official platoon.

 

If that's true then Domingo Santana would only play vs LHP.  I doubt that to be true but it's possible I guess.

 

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4 minutes ago, jb_power said:

 

If that's true then Domingo Santana would only play vs LHP.  I doubt that to be true but it's possible I guess.

 

 

It will be the 4 players for 3 OF spots against righties.  In between DH, injuries and rest, I think most will get their ABs, although Santana could be affected more.  Steamer has Yellich playing 149 games, Cain 143, Braun 137, Thames 131, Santana 124.  ABs are Yellich 579, Cain 574, Braun 513, Thames 449, and Santana 428.  Those sound about right to me.  

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1 hour ago, bluefrogguy said:

 

It will be the 4 players for 3 OF spots against righties.  In between DH, injuries and rest, I think most will get their ABs, although Santana could be affected more.  Steamer has Yellich playing 149 games, Cain 143, Braun 137, Thames 131, Santana 124.  ABs are Yellich 579, Cain 574, Braun 513, Thames 449, and Santana 428.  Those sound about right to me.  

 

That sound about wrong to me.
MIL wil play 10 Interleague games on the road. It means 162 games multiplied by the 4 spots + 10 DH = 658 games
Steamer has 149+143+137+131+124 = 684
658 ≠ 684

 

MIL wil play 10 Interleague games vs the AL central that has only Duffy as a LH Starter, plus Rodon who is on DL til nobody knows.
That means Thames can play and Braun can DH.
They wil play about 50 games vs LHP.

That leaves ~90 games to be devided.
Everyone will have rest days. Thames has 50 by default (unless injuries).
I would say CF is the most demanding position and Cain has the worst bat.
I would go Thames 112 games 1b, Cain 126 at CF, Braun 10 DH + 50 1b + 80 LF = 140, Santana 130 RF, and Yelich 82 LF + 32 RF + 36 CF = 150 games.
 

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braun to start opening day at 1b per fantrax

Edited by jfazz23

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22 hours ago, JCD said:

 

That sound about wrong to me.
MIL wil play 10 Interleague games on the road. It means 162 games multiplied by the 4 spots + 10 DH = 658 games
Steamer has 149+143+137+131+124 = 684
658 ≠ 684

 

MIL wil play 10 Interleague games vs the AL central that has only Duffy as a LH Starter, plus Rodon who is on DL til nobody knows.
That means Thames can play and Braun can DH.
They wil play about 50 games vs LHP.

That leaves ~90 games to be devided.
Everyone will have rest days. Thames has 50 by default (unless injuries).
I would say CF is the most demanding position and Cain has the worst bat.
I would go Thames 112 games 1b, Cain 126 at CF, Braun 10 DH + 50 1b + 80 LF = 140, Santana 130 RF, and Yelich 82 LF + 32 RF + 36 CF = 150 games.
 

 

658 and 684 are pretty similar, the difference probably being pinch hitting appearances.  The ABs are the more important measure.

 

Cousell says Thames won't lose any PT in this situation:

 

 

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8 hours ago, bluefrogguy said:

 

658 and 684 are pretty similar, the difference probably being pinch hitting appearances.  The ABs are the more important measure.

 

Cousell says Thames won't lose any PT in this situation:

 

 

 

No. 658 is correct the other is not.

From predicting point of view it would be idiotic to try predict pinch hitting instead of just games.

PAs is the most important measure. That is what you predict. AB is calculated from PA.

The reason for the Braun to 1b move is that Thames can't hit LHP.
If you understand that Counsell quote, than please explain how Thames won't lose playing time if he is not playing 1b.

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6 hours ago, JCD said:

 

No. 658 is correct the other is not.

From predicting point of view it would be idiotic to try predict pinch hitting instead of just games.

PAs is the most important measure. That is what you predict. AB is calculated from PA.

The reason for the Braun to 1b move is that Thames can't hit LHP.
If you understand that Counsell quote, than please explain how Thames won't lose playing time if he is not playing 1b.

 

Probably just manager speak trying to massage the truth and hoping Thames doesn't get upset.

 

Thames had 110 PA's last year against LHP's.   He should lose most if not all of those this year.

He batted .182 against southpaws so it looks like a good decision to sit him against lefties.

 

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On January 29, 2018 at 6:05 PM, Fuzzy_Slippers said:

Wouldn't touch this dude with a thirty-nine-and-a-half foot pole. 

I 100 percent agree. Guy can't stay healthy, he's past his prime and gets so many rest days it's like he's on the DL half the season. No value here 

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3 hours ago, Brooklyn Dude said:

 

Probably just manager speak trying to massage the truth and hoping Thames doesn't get upset.

 

Thames had 110 PA's last year against LHP's.   He should lose most if not all of those this year.

He batted .182 against southpaws so it looks like a good decision to sit him against lefties.

 

Sounds like what Counsell is really saying is "Thames was never going to start against LHP's anyway so the fact that Braun is moving to first base on those days doesn't mean Thames is going to lose any more playing time than he already was.""

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On 3/25/2018 at 2:01 AM, JCD said:

 

No. 658 is correct the other is not.

From predicting point of view it would be idiotic to try predict pinch hitting instead of just games.

PAs is the most important measure. That is what you predict. AB is calculated from PA.

The reason for the Braun to 1b move is that Thames can't hit LHP.
If you understand that Counsell quote, than please explain how Thames won't lose playing time if he is not playing 1b.

 

First off these are Steamer's projections. My guess is that he indeed does project pinch hitting appearances.  Last year Thames had 13 PH appearances, Santana 8, Braun 5, Yellich 1, Cain 0.  That's 27. That pretty much accounts for the discrepancy. He is probably projecting a few more PH for Santana, Braun and Thames. 

 

I think Steamer's G and AB guesses are about right in terms of year end stats, which is what he is trying to predict. I can see where you are coming from though- from a fantasy purpose those G with PH appearances are not as relevant.  Cheers.

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you guys think braun will get 1b eligibility (yahoo 5 starts) before or after the mia series starting April 19th? might get lucky and get quintana and lester when they play chi.

 

will braun really only play 1b vs lhp?

Edited by colepenhagen

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10 hours ago, street sharks said:

I got him in round 9 in my draft last night as my OF2. Pretty meh about it tbh

 

I think Braun is a nice value in the 9th so long as you have a decent size bench and some quality players you can stream in during his inevitable off days.

 

Edited by EmbargoLifted
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17 minutes ago, EmbargoLifted said:

 

I think Braun is a nice value in the 9th so long as you have a decent size bench and some quality players you can stream in during his inevitable off days.

 

Agreed.  Daily moves makes an enormous difference for his value.  When he plays, I still rank him as a top 15 OF.

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There is talk around Twitter of a potential trade involving Braun and Kemp. May just be held out because of that. 

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