Flyman75

Blake Snell 2018 Outlook

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So what are we making of Snell in 2018. He was having a rough go of it over the first half of last year. Then it looked like things were beginning to slowly turn around for him in July. He walked 5 or more three times through July 18 (11 starts)...walked  3 or more nine times in the same stretch. After that, however, he walked more than 3 one time (got bombed on Sept 26)...he walked 3 or more just three times over his 13 starts after July 18. He walked no batters or 1 batter six times. 

 

The result was an August-Oct run that saw him put up a 3.10 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in 61 IP...walking 19 and striking out 60. He induced a higher percentage of ground balls in Aug/Sept-Oct than the other four months. His strike percentage was substantially higher in July-Aug-Sept-Oct than it was in April-May-June. His FIP in August was 3.06 and in Sept-Oct was 3.32. Shandler says is FpK didn't support his lower walk rate in the second half...FpK was 54% in the first half and 54% in the second half. 

 

Is this a case of real growth that we saw in Snell, or is this a case of Fool's Gold luring fantasy owners in for 2018? 

 

Steamer has him projected with a 3.80 ERA, 4.05 FIP, 1.35 WHIP. They project his walk rate to stay roughly the same as it was in 2017. 

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1 hour ago, Flyman75 said:

Is this a case of real growth that we saw in Snell, or is this a case of Fool's Gold luring fantasy owners in for 2018? 

 

Steamer has him projected with a 3.80 ERA, 4.05 FIP, 1.35 WHIP. They project his walk rate to stay roughly the same as it was in 2017. 

 

Snell and Salazar are the two most intriguing mid-late round fliers imo. The stuff is obvious, and they may be a tweak or two away from becoming ace-like. 

I think Snell is pretty special. His combination of pitches could- with good sequencing and command- be devastating. Though you can say that for pretty much anyone.

 

With the way he finished 2017... and at the price he is going (Rays discount FTW)... he's a definite draft target for me.  

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That’s a good comparison between Snell and Salazar. I’ve been looking at those 2 guys for awhile now. It’s possible they may be available in my keeper league redraft. I’d say right now Salazar is a touch better because he has more MLB experience. But, Snell has good stuff and has enough upside potential to pass Salazar in 2018. I think Snell may make another move forward this year and become a reliable SP3.

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He is nasty but has to consistently keep walks way down from where they've been for me to have any interest. Can't think of one SP in MLB history who has had sustained success giving out this many free passes. 

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3 hours ago, Letitbe793 said:

He is nasty but has to consistently keep walks way down from where they've been for me to have any interest. Can't think of one SP in MLB history who has had sustained success giving out this many free passes. 

 

Nolan Ryan but then there is only 1 "Ryan Express"

 

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I hope he does go late but the hype is increasing for PC reasons mainly.  Most of the year he'd be getting through 5 at about 100 overall pitches.  Then you'll see this late season improvement (hope this pastes OK for readability):

DATE OPP RESULT RECORD GS INN HA RA ER ERA HRA BBI K S BS HB WP B PC
08/20 SEA W 3-0 2 - 6 Yes 7.0 2 0 0 4.42 0 2 8 0 0 0 1 0 101
08/26 @STL L 4-6 2 - 6 Yes 7.0 4 2 2 4.29 0 3 7 0 0 0 0 0 105
09/01 @CHW W 3-1 3 - 6 Yes 6.2 6 1 0 4.02 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 85
09/06 MIN L 6-10 3 - 6 Yes 4.0 7 6 6 4.36 2 0 7 0 0 0 0 0 80
09/12 NYY W 2-1 3 - 6 Yes 5.0 2 1 1 4.25 0 2 5 0 0 0 0 0 83
09/20 CHC W 8-1 4 - 6 Yes 7.0 2 0 0 4.00 0 3 5 0 0 0 0 0 100
09/26 @NYY L 1-6 4 - 7 Yes 1.0 4 4 4 4.27 1 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 49
10/01 BAL W 6-0 5 - 7 Yes 7.0 2 0 0 4.04 0 0 13 0 0 0 2 0 100

 

 

If he's back around 15PC/IP he's going to be very solid if can be had as like perhaps a 6th SP in 10/12 teamers.  I like his arsenal and I can see him outperforming that kind ADP level

Edited by STLSU
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6 hours ago, STLSU said:

I hope he does go late but the hype is increasing for PC reasons mainly.  Most of the year he'd be getting through 5 at about 100 overall pitches.  Then you'll see this late season improvement (hope this pastes OK for readability):

DATE OPP RESULT RECORD GS INN HA RA ER ERA HRA BBI K S BS HB WP B PC
08/20 SEA W 3-0 2 - 6 Yes 7.0 2 0 0 4.42 0 2 8 0 0 0 1 0 101
08/26 @STL L 4-6 2 - 6 Yes 7.0 4 2 2 4.29 0 3 7 0 0 0 0 0 105
09/01 @CHW W 3-1 3 - 6 Yes 6.2 6 1 0 4.02 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 85
09/06 MIN L 6-10 3 - 6 Yes 4.0 7 6 6 4.36 2 0 7 0 0 0 0 0 80
09/12 NYY W 2-1 3 - 6 Yes 5.0 2 1 1 4.25 0 2 5 0 0 0 0 0 83
09/20 CHC W 8-1 4 - 6 Yes 7.0 2 0 0 4.00 0 3 5 0 0 0 0 0 100
09/26 @NYY L 1-6 4 - 7 Yes 1.0 4 4 4 4.27 1 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 49
10/01 BAL W 6-0 5 - 7 Yes 7.0 2 0 0 4.04 0 0 13 0 0 0 2 0 100

 

 

If he's back around 15PC/IP he's going to be very solid if can be had as like perhaps a 6th SP in 10/12 teamers.  I like his arsenal and I can see him outperforming that kind ADP level

Yeah the formatting on what you pasted looks spot on.

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lengthy write up here at fangraphs..

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-other-major-second-half-turnaround/

 

partial quotes.. (pictures in link)

Quote

Why did I choose such a specific date? It’s not just a matter of convenience to prove the point. Rather, between consecutive starts, Snell made a change. Some might call it subtle, and others might call it significant. But Snell changed his positioning on the rubber, moving from the extreme third-base side to the middle. Snell is far from the first pitcher to alter his alignment, but the results would suggest the adjustment agreed with him.

There’s a little more to it than that. It’s always hard to figure out how and where to assign the most credit. Below, two pairs of screenshots, one pair from a very early start, and the other pair from Snell’s last start.

Quote

The different positioning on the mound is unmistakable. Snell also seems to have further raised his leg at the balance point. And then I’m drawn to what I see in the second image of each pair. Earlier on, Snell was throwing a little more across his body. Later, he became more direct to home plate, and I wonder if this was deliberate, or a natural consequence of moving over on the rubber. No longer standing on the third-base side, Snell couldn’t close himself off so much with his landing foot. He opened up a little more, and that might’ve been just the trick for his control.

Suddenly, Snell stopped getting into so much walk trouble.

Quote

There was more going on than just a positioning change. Even if said positioning change led to the landing-foot change. As Marc Topkin wrote three months ago, teammates perceived that Snell became more dedicated to his workouts. He showed a greater focus and was simply more mature. It’s possible it all just clicked around the same time. And it’s worth pointing out as well that there were differences even within Snell’s own repertoire. From July 24 on, Snell reduced his fastball rate about seven percentage points. Where, through July 23, Snell generated one strikeout with his curveball, after that he generated 29. Snell was using his pitches differently.

And even the pitches themselves were different. Down the stretch, Snell’s average fastball gained a tick. His changeup and slider each gained two ticks. His curveball gained three ticks. This might’ve come out of Snell achieving better mechanical alignment. It’s more efficient to step straight toward the target. Alternatively, maybe this is a result of Snell working out with more of a purpose, although that would be a dramatic and sudden change. I’m guessing it’s more about the mechanics, and, to a lesser extent, just pitching with a higher level of confidence.

 

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Yahoo has him ranked #173. That's the 15th round. Snell could very well end up being a solid SP3 this season. Sure wish he played for a better team in a better division, though. 

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Where would you be looking to grab him at? Yahoo has him at 173, I've seen him in the 270s, and ESPN doesn't even have him cracking the top 300 (I was looking up the points league rankings) but still, it seems like he is a loose cannon in the drafts depending on how people see his upside.

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I agree it’s hard to know how long you can wait to draft Snell. Opinions of him vary widely. For me I think if you can nab him as your SP5 around ADP 210 then that seems like a good spot to take him. If he can cut down his BB/9 this year then I could see a nice upswing in his value.

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I wouldn't mind taking him at #173, but only if he was my last or second to last SP. SP5 sounds about right, with potential to pitch like an SP3.

Edited by Fuzzy_Slippers

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Traded him in 2 leagues, Great young pitcher in terrible organization.  His value seems high right now in keeper leagues, Got alot back in return.  Reason I don't like him is the Rays offense is gonna be right there with the worst in baseball for awhile now after trading everything away or letting allstars go just so they don't have to pay them.  

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Posted (edited)

10:1 k:bb ratio of 3 starts (7 IP) so far this spring. That's a positive sign. 

Edited by 2ndCitySox
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I think he is so much better than last year. The eye test says it all! Control, poise, it is coming together.

 

I am still sitting him this week vs Boston and knowing my luck he will pitch a no hitter lol

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23 hours ago, oldsoul said:

I think he is so much better than last year. The eye test says it all! Control, poise, it is coming together.

 

I am still sitting him this week vs Boston and knowing my luck he will pitch a no hitter lol

 

 

Me as well. I think the upside is 6-8 K's and only a couple ER but the downside is just to great

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Posted (edited)
On 3/29/2018 at 8:01 AM, oldsoul said:

I think he is so much better than last year. The eye test says it all! Control, poise, it is coming together.

 

I am still sitting him this week vs Boston and knowing my luck he will pitch a no hitter lol

Agreed. I can't bring myself to pull the trigger on playing him today. We'll know a lot more about what we're getting with Snell this season after these first two games against Boston. 

Edited by Gravityshifter

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Me likey

 

Snell threw the 4 hardest pitches of his career in the first inning tonight vs Boston

 

#draftdaysteal

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2 minutes ago, hangin n wangin said:

Snell it fellas.

 

i think he is a top three pitcher on fantasy teams this year.

lol i hope youre right.

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Great start given the matchup. I'll be interested to see how he pitches @Boston in a few days, now that the Sox hitters have seen his stuff. But this was a very promising start.

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5 minutes ago, Nickdoggmoneycash said:

Great start given the matchup. I'll be interested to see how he pitches @Boston in a few days, now that the Sox hitters have seen his stuff. But this was a very promising start.

 

Yeah, I thought he did well today, I wish he'd at least gotten that last out to get 6 innings for the QS. I believe in this kid this year, but I think I'll sit him now that the BoSox will see him again in five days-ish.

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