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Carlos Hyde 2018 Outlook

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15 minutes ago, Lord_Varys said:

Browns extended Duke after they signed Hyde, and after they drafted Chubb.

Who cares if something is untrue if it helps him make his point?

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2 hours ago, SharkSwimmer said:

Solid stuff from Axe.  I am trending towards "sold" on Carlos Hyde.  He's going to be cheap and could really pay off.

 

The only correction I will make is that Hyde signed first, Chubb was drafted next, and Duke Johnson was extended last.  But I would not read too much into that sequence.  All healthy NFL offenses need more than one productive running back.

 

36 minutes ago, Lord_Varys said:

Browns extended Duke after they signed Hyde, and after they drafted Chubb.

 

Yes, you two are right.  I read somewhere that the Browns were "working" on an extension for Duke on March 12 (free agency opened March 14)--but I mistakenly assumed they had got it DONE then.  The extension was, in fact, signed after Hyde and Chubb came aboard.

 

So forget it.  I guess Hyde is a chump after all.

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On 5/10/2018 at 10:30 AM, Rolling Thunder said:

 

There are nothing but positives to be drawn from Hyde's 2017 campaign.  It started on draft day when the world became convinced that Hyde had no chance after Shanahan pounded the table for Williams.  Hyde was the undisputed starter when Week 1 arrived.

 

Then, the chorus grew that  Hyde was too brittle to put in a full campaign.  He proved those folks wrong. 

 

As the season wore on, Hyde toiled under poor QB play in an offense ill-suited to his skill set.  He produced well in PPR nevertheless.

 

It is easy to forget how highly regarded Hyde was when he was pucked in the second round in 2014.  Durability is always a concern, but he's not going to roll over just because Chubb arrived.  If there is a real lead role to be had in Haley's offense (not just the full RBBC that Dorsey seems to envision), I would not automatically earmark it for Chubb.  Hyde will impress the CS with his character, his compete level and his all around skill set.  That you can take to the bank.

 

 

On 5/10/2018 at 12:19 PM, Gohawks said:

People that draft Chubb are going to be in for a huge surprise.

 

Hyde isn't AP. He is a very very talented RB. In fact, I would say he is top 10 from a pure talent perspective and in the prime of his career. Last year he suffered from a coach that clearly did not want him yet he still managed to produce. Go watch tape of Hyde and you will see how good of a player he is.

 

As far as i'm concerned, Chubb is just added to the list of Browns being absolutely ******** stupid. They already picked up a very good RB. To at best maybe improve a bit at a position that isn't near the most important is the definition of stupid. Or the definition of Browns.

 

On 5/10/2018 at 2:04 PM, Rolling Thunder said:

Whether stupid or not, Dorsey has said he prefers RBBC.  Dorsey isn't the OC, but what are the odds that Haley has a totally different view?  If he does, Dorsey must not have bothered to check in with him before draft day.

 

We know that both Hyde and Johnson have chops.  If Chubb looks good in PS too, how can a full blown 3 way timeshare not be the default in Cleveland?

 

Then you have all those WRs, a stud TE, and two QBs who both are likely to be way better than anything we've seen there in years.  

 

Personally, I believe that Cleveland will be a very productive offense this season.  That will benefit the backfield alot.  I just fear that the bigger pie will be sliced too evenly to yield a real difference-maker for us.

 

 

On 5/10/2018 at 2:10 PM, Impreza178 said:

 

I tend to agree.  Or at the very least-  might be decided by injuries and fumbling.   However, The price has gone down quite a bit on Hyde-  so I’m not dyometrically opposed just yet.   Could be a nice fourth rb dart. 

 

On 5/10/2018 at 2:21 PM, Rolling Thunder said:

 

Even talented rookies make rookie mistakes, and a RPO heavy offense is far more well-suited to Hyde's skill set than the one he toiled valiantly in last season.  For a bargain price, I'll be throwing a dart or two as well.

 

On 6/21/2018 at 6:15 PM, Panthers8912 said:

Sooo at his current adp I’m fine to take this guy on the off chance he’s just that much better than the other rbs

 

On 6/25/2018 at 9:24 AM, dashoe said:

 

Chubb won't take over if 1. He doesnt pass protect better 2. learn the playbook and execute on it.   Coaches will dumb down the playbook for the rookie starter unless a more than capable vet is on the roster but they hate making exceptions for poor pass blocking

 

On 6/25/2018 at 9:32 AM, Impreza178 said:

I don’t think the Browns planned on Chubb being available where he was-    Which casts serious doubt on the short term role of either rb.  I will say- the reports about Chubb have been glowing.   lf that knee is right he’s the talent on the roster.  

 

Another one of these situations that’s tempting to assume the rookie takes over sooner than later-  but we really have no clue when. 

 

http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/23671886/2018-nfl-stat-projections-top-10-rookie-running-backs

 

"ESPN Browns reporter Pat McManamon: It's early in the process, but Chubb has a chance to be the Browns' starting running back. Chubb's between-the-tackles ability and his work ethic will earn him a long look in training camp and preseason. It would not be surprising to see Chubb get the bulk of the every-down carries, especially early in games. The competition will be intriguing. The Browns did sign Carlos Hyde to go with Duke Johnson, in addition to drafting Chubb. But Hyde's tough running would be valuable in short-yardage, red zone and fourth-quarter situations -- assuming the Browns have games when they are protecting a late lead. Johnson's role won't change; he'll be the change-of-pace back, the weapon out of the backfield."

 

I think that drafting Hyde at current ADP makes sense; it means that Hyde isn't viewed as an RB1. I don't think that any of those backs can be viewed as more than flex options ATM, even in PPR. 

 

Shanahan is a special coach so I don't see Hyde catching 59 passes again,  he had 50 combined receptions in the three years prior to 2017. He hasn't been a high volume rusher, I think he tops out at 16 rushes/game. Which isn't awful, but he was the feature back. Duke has had 188 receptions in three years. Chubb should eat into Hyde's touches. This doesn't mean Hyde doesn't have value, it just means that expectations should be tailored. 

 

Chubb probably won't be a breakout stud. I like him, but he has a bad FF situation.

Hyde probably won't be better than what he's been and could regress. I like him, but he has a bad FF situation.

Duke will probably be what he is, a little upside here because of Haley. I like him, but he has a bad FF situation.

 

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9 minutes ago, thebrowns said:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/23671886/2018-nfl-stat-projections-top-10-rookie-running-backs

 

"ESPN Browns reporter Pat McManamon: It's early in the process, but Chubb has a chance to be the Browns' starting running back. Chubb's between-the-tackles ability and his work ethic will earn him a long look in training camp and preseason. It would not be surprising to see Chubb get the bulk of the every-down carries, especially early in games. The competition will be intriguing. The Browns did sign Carlos Hyde to go with Duke Johnson, in addition to drafting Chubb. But Hyde's tough running would be valuable in short-yardage, red zone and fourth-quarter situations -- assuming the Browns have games when they are protecting a late lead. Johnson's role won't change; he'll be the change-of-pace back, the weapon out of the backfield."

 

I think that drafting Hyde at current ADP makes sense; it means that Hyde isn't viewed as an RB1. I don't think that any of those backs can be viewed as more than flex options ATM, even in PPR. 

 

Shanahan is a special coach so I don't see Hyde catching 59 passes again,  he had 50 combined receptions in the three years prior to 2017. He hasn't been a high volume rusher, I think he tops out at 16 rushes/game. Which isn't awful, but he was the feature back. Duke has had 188 receptions in three years. Chubb should eat into Hyde's touches. This doesn't mean Hyde doesn't have value, it just means that expectations should be tailored. 

 

Chubb probably won't be a breakout stud. I like him, but he has a bad FF situation.

Hyde probably won't be better than what he's been and could regress. I like him, but he has a bad FF situation.

Duke will probably be what he is, a little upside here because of Haley. I like him, but he has a bad FF situation.

 

"but Chubb has a chance to be the Browns' starting running back"

 

well yeah, he has a chance, but i don think its a very big one. Just by looking at the title of the article i can tell this was written by some jabroni just looking for clicks. Rookies in general create a lot of buzz this time of year and he's just playing off that. If training camp starts and a browns writer reports that chubb is killing it and spending a lot of time with the 1s then ill consider drafting him over hyde. Until then, i would say most signs point towards hyde being the early down back in this offense 

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Nick Chubb - RB - Browns

ESPN's Pat McManamon writes it "would not be surprising" if second-rounder Nick Chubb wins "the bulk" of the early-down carries.

Duke Johnson will keep his role on passing downs, but Chubb and free-agent addition Carlos Hyde will battle it out for early-down carries. A committee approach seems the most likely outcome, especially early in the season, but McManamon gives Chubb a chance to win the job outright in camp. If he does, his eighth-round ADP will be a value.
 
 
Source: ESPN
Jun 26 - 10:14 AM

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That's a lot of qualifiers.  Of course it would not be "surprising" if Chubb earned a sizable role: he was their 2nd round pick!  That doesn't mean Chubb is going to have a better training camp than Hyde and win the starting job, just that Chubb might do so.

 

But, mostly, Chubb might not.

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3 hours ago, Panthers8912 said:

"but Chubb has a chance to be the Browns' starting running back"

 

well yeah, he has a chance, but i don think its a very big one. Just by looking at the title of the article i can tell this was written by some jabroni just looking for clicks. Rookies in general create a lot of buzz this time of year and he's just playing off that. If training camp starts and a browns writer reports that chubb is killing it and spending a lot of time with the 1s then ill consider drafting him over hyde. Until then, i would say most signs point towards hyde being the early down back in this offense 

 

This wasn't a self-contained article. It's an excerpt from a larger article (I included the link) about projecting the top ten rookie RBs. The point is that Chubb will not be a non-factor. Expecting any one of these RBs to excel would be folly.

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As a Niner fan who was really excited about Hyde, he was unfortunately thoroughly mediocre. He tries to dance behind the line of scrimmage like a smaller back instead of putting his head down way more than he should. Then every once in a while he will grind out a great run, very frustration player.  

 

I took him last year due to Shanahan and he was putting up pretty good numbers at the start of the year when Hoyer was playing terribly and dumping off to him all the time, but he is a terrible receiver. If Chubb is any good I don't see how he is anything more than a rotational guy especially with Duke being a terrific 3rd down back.

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https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/football/news/2018-outlook-carlos-hyde/

 

" Carlos Hyde left the 49ers for the Browns this offseason as a free agent, and he's expected to share touches with Duke Johnson and rookie Nick Chubb. It's not an ideal situation, but Hyde will likely be the starter and handle the majority of work on rushing downs. Chubb will be a factor in that scenario, and Hyde should see a decline in his production as a receiver because of Johnson. In 2017, Hyde had the most work of his career and finished with over 1,200 total yards and eight touchdowns. Part of that was 59 catches for 350 yards, and those stats will be hard to replicate. We'll see how the Browns plan to use Chubb, and hopefully Hyde can still get enough touches to be a quality Fantasy option. But his Fantasy outlook is lower with his move to Cleveland as long as Chubb and Johnson stay healthy. We still like Hyde as a No. 3 running back/flex option with the Browns, but he's only worth drafting in Round 7 in standard leagues and Round 8 or later in PPR."

 

This article from two weeks ago does a better job of articulating my argument regarding Hyde. Is he a value at current ADP? Definitely. AND he's better suited for the third running back on a roster than the first or second. He was in a near ideal situation (we can talk about the line if you want to, thus the "near" qualifier) last year. I don't think we can reasonably expect him to do better or even to replicate last year's production.

 

A few more quotes:

"Hyde was an RB1 last season in a lackluster offense, so don't be surprised if he holds off Nick Chubb for a year. The upside is there for him to return to top 15 production, but there will be some obstacles considering all the mouths Cleveland suddenly has to feed."

Bobby Sylvester - FantasyPros - 2 weeks ago

 

"He's someone I was targeting in best-ball leagues as a low-end RB2 just a couple weeks ago, as I do believe the Browns are going to be run-heavy in 2018. While that's still going to be the case, them drafting Nick Chubb in the second-round was the worst-case scenario for Hyde (outside of them taking Saquon Barkley). Chubb is essentially a younger version of Hyde, but faster. I still believe Hyde gets 10-12 touches per game, but it's not enough to crack the top-30 running backs."

Mike Tagliere - FantasyPros - 5 weeks ago

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Only the 1st preseason game but boy did Chubb look pretty awful (slow & indecisive).  Something to definitely monitor in the coming weeks and to consider bumping up Hyde & Duke a bit in the RB rankings.

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4 hours ago, J.T. Marlin said:

Only the 1st preseason game but boy did Chubb look pretty awful (slow & indecisive).  Something to definitely monitor in the coming weeks and to consider bumping up Hyde & Duke a bit in the RB rankings.

 

Chubb didnt look back but he sure made the defenders look good

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Another 7 for 45 with a big play of 33. Wouldn't be surprised to see him lose touches as the season goes on, especially if health becomes a concern, but he should be solid for at least the first few weeks.

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1 minute ago, Ragnaroker said:

Another 7 for 45 with a big play of 33. Wouldn't be surprised to see him lose touches as the season goes on, especially if health becomes a concern, but he should be solid for at least the first few weeks.

I would be more concerned if Chubb looked any better against the 2s

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Looked to  be that Hyde and Chubb are about the same player. I didn't see one look any better than the other. Hyde will certainly start, but if things go south (which they should at some point for the Browns even if they are better) then Chubb will likely take over. 

So if you are looking for immediate help at the RB3, I would go with Hyde, but if you are looking for a cheap playoff stash then Chubb would be my guy. Especially if you are in keeper. 

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29 minutes ago, wideopen21 said:

Looked to  be that Hyde and Chubb are about the same player. I didn't see one look any better than the other. Hyde will certainly start, but if things go south (which they should at some point for the Browns even if they are better) then Chubb will likely take over. 

So if you are looking for immediate help at the RB3, I would go with Hyde, but if you are looking for a cheap playoff stash then Chubb would be my guy. Especially if you are in keeper. 

The problem with playoff stashes is that you have to stash them all the way to the playoffs, not knowing if they will pay off even then.

 

Chubb had one solid run and then looked bad against the 2s in extended run.

 

That said would have been nice if I could have cuffed Hyde in the later rounds, but can't get everything you want.

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1 hour ago, pushaZ said:

I would be more concerned if Chubb looked any better against the 2s

 

Exactly. Chubb has upside but has not looked good. I can definitely see the scenario in which Hyde remains the starter all year barring injury.

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11 hours ago, pushaZ said:

The problem with playoff stashes is that you have to stash them all the way to the playoffs, not knowing if they will pay off even then.

 

Chubb had one solid run and then looked bad against the 2s in extended run.

 

That said would have been nice if I could have cuffed Hyde in the later rounds, but can't get everything you want.

Even the nice run, there was a horrible missed tackle at the line. 

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On 8/24/2018 at 11:48 AM, TommyKramer said:

Seems like a solid RB2 that you can get at an RB3 price tage

I agree. Think I've been sleeping on this guy a little. At the right price point, I wouldn't have a problem with calling his name on draft day. 

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Hyde is way more talented than his draft price. Chubb isn't very naturally talented IMO.

 

This is kind of off the rails, but Chubb & Sony Michel remind me a lot of Samaje Perine & Joe Mixon in college. Chubb got most of the work & stats, but it was obvious Michel was the better talent. Same thing with Mixon being way better than Perine but getting less work than him. 

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Just checked a website for ADP’s and his suit up to 60’s from the 110’s lol. That pre season game was all too revealing. 

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In full point PPR, 3 WR/no flex league, went WR/TE (Gronk)/WR in the first three rounds, then picked up RBs.  Got Hyde as an RB2 for early in the season, with Ingram on the bench.  For those waiting on RBs, the Hyde-Ingram pairing seems like a pretty good one because Hyde’s role early in the season seems pretty set.  He has gotten the important first team reps and seems pretty likely to get 16-18 touches per game minimum early on (which would be on pace for 288 touches on the season).  Chubb could cut into that as the season goes on, but by that time Ingram will be off suspension and hopefully putting up top 10 RB numbers again.  And Hyde might keep the job all season.  He’s got big play potential and is capable of being a 3 down back.  Johnson will clearly have a role though.  Even as a 5th/6th round pick, there is the potential for great return on investment with Hyde.

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1 hour ago, FeastMode said:

In full point PPR, 3 WR/no flex league, went WR/TE (Gronk)/WR in the first three rounds, then picked up RBs.  Got Hyde as an RB2 for early in the season, with Ingram on the bench.  For those waiting on RBs, the Hyde-Ingram pairing seems like a pretty good one because Hyde’s role early in the season seems pretty set.  He has gotten the important first team reps and seems pretty likely to get 16-18 touches per game minimum early on (which would be on pace for 288 touches on the season).  Chubb could cut into that as the season goes on, but by that time Ingram will be off suspension and hopefully putting up top 10 RB numbers again.  And Hyde might keep the job all season.  He’s got big play potential and is capable of being a 3 down back.  Johnson will clearly have a role though.  Even as a 5th/6th round pick, there is the potential for great return on investment with Hyde.

I have a Hyde/Kerryon Johnson pair using similar logic

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