jfazz23

Manuel "Manny" Margot 2018 Outlook

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14 minutes ago, floppy said:

dropped in my league. anyone still high on him?

Don’t know what to think, I added him hoping to strike gold.

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We may now have our answer of who is the odd man out when they all are healthy... 

 

i still dont know know how pirielas defense can be so bad that they play a corpse like asuaje over him rather than relieve the logjam... but Margot isn’t exactly forcing his way into the lineup either. 

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What’s the pulse in here on this guy now?  I’ve essentially benched outside of Mon/Thurs short schedule days. 

 

Feels like there’s too much there to drop but a .211/.205 over the last two weeks isn’t filling me with much hope. Seriously his OBP was lower than his horrible BA. 

 

He’s worse than a Jerrod Dyson so far. Speed doesnt play very much if you are on less than 23% of the time. 

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On 4/7/2018 at 11:40 PM, Marty Funkhouser said:

Terrible 1/20th of the season so far. Sell for someone’s dead grandmother.

Actually sell for someone’s dead grandmother I’m not kidding now.

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Shouldn’t be owned if you are here you are smart enough to know that right

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38 minutes ago, Johnny Tuttle said:

In a redraft, the last poster is obviously correct, but what's the feeling on owning him in dynasties? Still 23.

 

I’m definitely holding in my dynasty, done with him in redraft though.  He has the tools to be a big contributor and I think his defense is gonna keep him around long enough to have a shot at fixing his hitting

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59 minutes ago, Johnny Tuttle said:

In a redraft, the last poster is obviously correct, but what's the feeling on owning him in dynasties? Still 23.

 

Here are some of the underlying metrics that still give me some hope for him. For reference, I just bought him in a dynasty league. Too early to give up IMO. 

 

1) His BABIP is .231 which is 78 points lower than it was last year and 69 (giggity) points lower than his 2016 BABIP. 2016 is SSS though. This is very strange for a guy with his level of speed. 

 

2) Coupled with a low BABIP is a career LOW soft contact rate of 21.7%. Additionally, his hard contact rate is 5.7% higher than it was last year. This combined with his strangely low BABIP suggest that he's been unlucky.

 

3) Of course, it isn't all roses. His GB rate is 11% higher than it was last year. Normally, I wouldn't be concerned for a guy with his speed but it's taken 7% off his LD rate and 4% off his flyball rate. 

 

4) His plate discipline metrics are almost identical to last year. In fact, he's swinging at pitches out of the zone 3.1% less than he did last year. The problem is that his contact numbers have declined. His O-Contact% is down 4.6%, his Z-Contact% is down 3.5%, and his overall Contact% is down 3.2%. 

 

5) The final piece of this strange puzzle is that he's not seeing as many fastballs as he did last year. 8% fewer, in fact. Although, that may just be small sample size at this point. The rate of breaking pitches hasn't really increased either. He's seeing slightly more cutters and more changeups. 

 

Conclusion: It's too early to give up IMO. The biggest change that needs to happen is lowering the ground ball rate. I expect the BABIP to normalize over time given his speed and contact ability. 

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5 hours ago, En Votto Veritas said:

Looks like he's righted the ship this month. Anyone else looking to add in redraft leagues?

 

Empty BA in June. Myers and Cordero are both doing their rehab stints right now, and they'll be coming back to an OF with Renfroe, Reyes, Jankowski, and Margot. That's awfully crowded, and I believe it will be dependent on whether or not he can beat out Jankowski at CF...but that's if Cordero doesn't play CF. Basically, I don't put any stock in Margot at this moment. 

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His bats waking up finally & yes there is a very crowded OF in SD, but when you have a talented player in a crowdes OF, these situations tend to work themselves out. Wil Myers is still injury prone and can play some 1st, Cordero has incredible talent but is coming back off an injury and may take time. Margot is far too talented to lose ABs if he's hitting. Now thats a huge "if" given his start to this year but maybe now that he seems to be seeing the ball better, all this "competition" in the OF will help light a fire under his a**. I'm keeping a CLOSE eye on him & another couple good games & I'm snatching him up, especially in my keeper. 

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20 minutes ago, metropolitans said:

His bats waking up finally & yes there is a very crowded OF in SD, but when you have a talented player in a crowdes OF, these situations tend to work themselves out. Wil Myers is still injury prone and can play some 1st, Cordero has incredible talent but is coming back off an injury and may take time. Margot is far too talented to lose ABs if he's hitting. Now thats a huge "if" given his start to this year but maybe now that he seems to be seeing the ball better, all this "competition" in the OF will help light a fire under his a**. I'm keeping a CLOSE eye on him & another couple good games & I'm snatching him up, especially in my keeper. 

After looking a bit deeper, I definitely need to change that assessment - in 12+ man league's he's a solid add if ur last guy isn't "great", in 10 or less he's a monitor very closely and/or add if my last bench spots weak, but in Keeper formats he's a MUST add. I didn't realize he's been 'this hot' for the last month, where he's hitting .329 with an OPS of .949 over that Month, he's been hot all month and now the power's coming too. Few players on the Wire can offer his upside in the HR/SB dept, if any. He seems to have found his stroke! Don't be too worried about the crowded OF, plain & simple - if he keeps hitting, he'll keep playing. 

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ive seen his name a ton the last year or 2, but i've never seen the guy play. who's his comp? what can we expect? I have a few questionable guys to consider dropping for him, but I haven't seen a reason to pick this guy up but the last week or 2. Any more insight would help.

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I feel like this guy is under everyone’s radar. He’s been doing well and has been pretty consistent hitting .313 the past month. He’s hitting at the top of the lineup for the Padres which will get him lots of runs if he keeps hitting. What do you guys think of this? Is the 23 year old just hot?Does he deserved to be scooped up in a 12 team 5 x 5 fantasy league?

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12 minutes ago, Yanks598 said:

I feel like this guy is under everyone’s radar. He’s been doing well and has been pretty consistent hitting .313 the past month. He’s hitting at the top of the lineup for the Padres which will get him lots of runs if he keeps hitting. What do you guys think of this? Is the 23 year old just hot?Does he deserved to be scooped up in a 12 team 5 x 5 fantasy league?

I picked him up after his last hot streak in June,chuckling at the owner that dropped him and patting myself on fje back.  I think he went 1-37 or something and is capable of doing just that. His ceiling is not worth the risk.  Doesn't help that he plays in san diego.  Shouldn't be on any 12 teamers imo.

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Idk, he's really been paying off last couple weeks for me. Free grab in for my 4th OF slot in 16 teamer...keep rolling kid!

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