NYR Fan 116894

Rob Gronkowski 2018 Outlook

tonycpsu

[Thread for previous season automatically locked. Feel free to post a new thread for 2019.]

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3 hours ago, devaster said:

Maybe you are talking about PPR. But the floor of random TE's is usually 0-1 in standard. Absolute garbage. I decided to switch Kittle for Gronk at the last minute last night and Gronk at least didn't fall on his face again. But Kittle has blown up or outscored Gronk on my bench weeks 2-4.

 

My main concern with Gronk is the lack of RZ targets. He has 1 now through 5 games. None last night to my knowledge. His only TD was scored outside the RZ. You draft Gronk for the TD upside. We aren't getting that this season. Watching Belichick consistently run the ball inside the 5 instead of throwing to Gronk in an obvious mismatch against a depleted Colts defense last night really hurt. They didn't even attempt once to Gronk.

 

Maybe its because they dont want him jumping on his bad ankle?

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1 minute ago, Zak0221 said:

 

Maybe its because they dont want him jumping on his bad ankle?

 

What JAX did in week 2 gave everyone a template on how to defend the Pats w/o Edelman and Gordon:  essentially double team Gronk every play and force Brady to throw to Hogan or Dorset.

 

I think the additions of Edelman & Gordon plus the improved running game will force teams to play NE differently.  Just last night you saw on 3rd and goal NE had Gronk lined up out wide by himself with 3 WRs on the other side.  The defense was obviously worried about that matchup so instead Brady threw a screen to Patterson on the opposite side.  I think as time goes on and the other weapons become viable it’ll open things up a lot for Gronk

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7 hours ago, oliminator123 said:

Taking Gronk always turns out to be the biggest gamble of the draft for his ADP. The monumental concerns that come from his position and his health have him as a DND for me every year. 

 

Tightend is just not a position I want to allocate high risk towards. 

 

He will straighten up once his body feels better, but until then, and on this offense which has a ridiculous amount of receiving targets, he will have some more bum games. 

I liked him this year since he was going near the end of the second round or pick 20 plus.  In years past he's been like pick 12 or so.  If Gronk gets back to his regular production and you aren't 0-4 right now it can still work out fine.

 

That being said it has been disappointing so far, no way to sugar coat that.  You expect to get a significant point advantage at your TE spot when you take him and that just hasn't happened so far.

 

He's a target to try to snag from teams that may be off to a rocky start because of picking him imo.

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1 hour ago, GriffeySwag said:

He has one redzone target in 5 games.

 

That's very disappointing with many people drafting him so high.  

 

His value doesn't even feel like Tier 1 right now.

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1 hour ago, GriffeySwag said:

He has one redzone target in 5 games.

 

13 minutes ago, indyrckstar said:

 

That's very disappointing with many people drafting him so high.  

 

His value doesn't even feel like Tier 1 right now.

 

 

He was playing alongside Hogan/Patterson/Dorsette to start the first 4..... R E L A X and sell him to me - now we see offense starting last night and he'll get some 1-1 matchups.

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On 10/2/2018 at 1:57 PM, Sternes said:

 

Due to the price paid, very hard to sell him.  1st week was great and then it has been an episode in frustration and until the injury, it wasn't on him.   I've had offers for him but it has all been awful, stuff like McCoy, Gordon, or Drake, never anything I'd sink my teeth into and seriously contemplate.

 

Another example

 

https://www.rotowire.com/football/player.php?id=6443

 

Gronk up to this season he has played in 102 games, started 89 games. (Does NOT INCLUDE this year)  127 red zone targets in that span, an average of 1.25 per game for his career, and if you only use the games started (avg), it jumps to 1.43 per game.

 

Gronk this season in 4 games 5 games, has 1 RZ target.

 

His targets last year per game were 7.5 per game, this season 6. 

 

The usage has been baffling.  Brady willingness to chuck it up to guys like Dorsett, in multiple coverage, and at least watching casually watching, seems to be where all of Brady's INT's go to is also confusing.  Throw it to a size mismatch or a smurf WR?  Brady seems to be picking the smurf this year aside from game 1.  In that game he targeted Gronk in double coverage and Gronk came up big.

 

 

 

 

 

CatchNoCatch2.gif

 

 

 

 

GronkTD1.gif

 

 

 

Wanted to bump this due to the RZ talk.

 

Brady just seems unwilling to force feed him this year.  This was a solid game for him, but Brady seems to be doing some Fitzpatrick of his own and passing up the shorter open throw and chucking it deep.  I'm really hoping they get him some looks, because there is no way Patterson should have 2 RZ targets and Gronk have 1.  He still also hasn't hit double digit targets this season.

Edited by Sternes

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NFL TE Targets

Ertz -     58

Kelce -  46

Ebron - 45

Kittle -  36

Njoku - 34

Gronk - 31

Graham - 29

Rudolph - 27

Hooper - 27

Cook - 25

 

He has the one less target than Yeldon, Chester Rogers, Kupp, and McCaffery, and the same as Sanu.

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On ‎10‎/‎5‎/‎2018 at 4:26 PM, nosh0t said:

 

 

 

He was playing alongside Hogan/Patterson/Dorsette to start the first 4..... R E L A X and sell him to me - now we see offense starting last night and he'll get some 1-1 matchups.

Edelman wasn't around last season. The receivers were a bit worse without Edelman compared to last season, but nothing significant. Why is he not being featured more this season? Especially when Edelman was out. 1 RZ target through 5 games so far.

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The guy is just washed up, simple as that. It's clear as day when you see him on the field that he is not the athlete he once was. He is still big and strong but he is not fast or mobile enough to beat his matchups in the same way he once did.

 

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2 hours ago, MJJ28 said:

The guy is just washed up, simple as that. It's clear as day when you see him on the field that he is not the athlete he once was. He is still big and strong but he is not fast or mobile enough to beat his matchups in the same way he once did.

 

 

He looks the same as he did last year and he put up 1,000+ yards and 8 TD, doing all his damage in 13 games (the 14th he didn't have a target the last game in week 17).

 

He has never been some super agile TE.  I'm not sure why people think that.  You can't lose what you never had.

 

 

 

 

Edited by Sternes
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Bought low on Gronk from an 0-5 team. Happy to be a part of this thread. Now get it together Gronk!

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Pats dont want to pay Gronk those stat bonuses so they converted him to swing tackle

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2 hours ago, affliction said:

Pats dont want to pay Gronk those stat bonuses so they converted him to swing tackle

 

This was my thought. They will probably use him sparingly until late in the season/playoffs and then unleash him. That way he doesn't make his bonuses. Just a thought. 

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19 minutes ago, thirdeye said:

 

This was my thought. They will probably use him sparingly until late in the season/playoffs and then unleash him. That way he doesn't make his bonuses. Just a thought. 

 

I don’t know I feel like he would see through that pretty easily and the Guerrero contingent would rebel

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He has certainly been underwhelming and 4 targets on 35 pass attempts definitely isn't adequate for a player of his caliber. I'm not going to say Pats are intentionally not getting him the ball but they certainly should be doing more to try and get him involved. He did have some big key plays down the stretch though that looked a little too easy and made you wonder why he wasn't more involved. No excuse for this guy only getting 35 targets through 6 games which is hardly even top 10 for a TE. 

 

It was easy to write off the lack of production/involvement the first 4 weeks but with Edelman and Gordon both back, the run game humming and the Pats back to winning again, his lack of involvement is becoming worrisome. 

Edited by Jaw1

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NE has Gronk wrapped up until Christmas, they will use him to his fullest in January. 

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7 minutes ago, Tax77 said:

NE has Gronk wrapped up until Christmas, they will use him to his fullest in January. 

 

I think if they were concerned about his health he wouldn't be banging in the trenches every play. The types of injuries lineman sustain, which Gronk basically is right now, are far worse than those of route runners and seem to occur far more frequently.

 

It seems to me like the problem is that the offense is becoming very Chargers-esque. Extremely effective running game in combination with relentlessly targeting the RB and short quick routes. The ball is often out of Brady's hands in milliseconds and Gronk's routes take time to develop.

Edited by MJJ28
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7 hours ago, MJJ28 said:

 

I think if they were concerned about his health he wouldn't be banging in the trenches every play. The types of injuries lineman sustain, which Gronk basically is right now, are far worse than those of route runners and seem to occur far more frequently.

 

It seems to me like the problem is that the offense is becoming very Chargers-esque. Extremely effective running game in combination with relentlessly targeting the RB and short quick routes. The ball is often out of Brady's hands in milliseconds and Gronk's routes take time to develop.

 

Gronk played a huge role in run blocking last night...not that this helped anyone.

 

I drafted Gronk in round 2 and his performance is definitely troubling. No TDs in a 5 game stretch...believe it's the longest stretch of his career.

 

Gotta think better days are coming. All the pieces on the offense are starting to fall in place. 

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Patriots are playing good "real football" (at least on offense) but unfortunately that doesn't mean much for fantasy football. They ran the ball a lot last night and were playing keep away for a majority of the game, Gronk being a great blocking TE played a huge factor into how they used him.. As we saw though, when the chips were down and the Pats needed to move the ball through the air they went to Gronk, his usage is seemingly game plan dependent right now.

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This year’s NE team is different. Namely, Sony Michel. He changes their offensive calls, particularly in the red zone. In the past, Gronk was the main read in scoring positions. Now, it’s Sony (for the most part). Gotta keep trotting him out there though.

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The ONLY game Gronk has led the team in targets, was against the Lions, and it was only 5.

 

Gronk up to this season he has played in 102 games, started 89 games. (Does NOT INCLUDE this year)  127 red zone targets in that span, an average of 1.25 per game for his career, and if you only use the games started (avg), it jumps to 1.43 per game. Gronk this season in 6 games, has 1 RZ target. 

 

His targets last year per game were 7.5 per game, this season 5.83. 

 

He currently is having his highest catch % of his career, but isn't getting any volume.  Before, or after the injury.

 

He definitely looked healthier than last week, which is about the only positive I can think of after this game.

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