NYR Fan 116894

T.Y. Hilton 2018 Outlook

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52 minutes ago, Ace_King said:

I'm not worried about the Dallas defense. Houston has a great defense too and Hilton and Luck shredded them last week. Hilton is a top 10 caliber talent. Don't over think it.

 

No hes not , hes a great receiver and you can even put him in elite status. But top 10 talent he definitely aint.   

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24 minutes ago, RunCMC said:

 

No hes not , hes a great receiver and you can even put him in elite status. But top 10 talent he definitely aint.   

 

When Luck has been healthy he has been a 90-91 yards per game receiver (2014, 2016, 2018). He is under the radar because he missed time in the middle of the season and had a relatively slow start and he had a poor year last year without Luck. He led the league in receiving yards in 2016, though. I can't think of 10 receivers who are more productive than TY. Can you?

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5 minutes ago, Ace_King said:

 

When Luck has been healthy he has been a 90-91 yards per game receiver (2014, 2016, 2018). He is under the radar because he missed time in the middle of the season and had a relatively slow start and he had a poor year last year without Luck. He led the league in receiving yards in 2016, though. I can't think of 10 receivers who are more productive than TY. Can you?

 

You can’t just say when Luck was healthy. Were talking facts here, every wideout has played in some part of their career without their starting QB. And if your going to play that angle, I say Luck is the one taking him to that higher level, not the other way around. What would Odell, Cooper, Diggs, Mike Evans do with Luck under center... just saying. TY Hilton is in the top 15-20 Range.

 

And yes I can, btw first you mentioned talent, not production. But ill prove you wrong on both. Here are following recievers on a pure talent level better then him. AB , AJ Green, DHop, Julio, Keenan Allen,  Tyreek Hill, OBJ, Michael Thomas, Mike Evans, JuJu Smith, Amari Cooper, Steffon Diggs, Brandin Cooks ( debatable ) , Adam Thielen ( debatable ) Devante Adams (debatable) 

 

Now that we’re done with that. Lets go and see where he ranked yardage wise, since entering the league

 

Year: Rank    

2012 : 30th

2013 : 18th

2014:  6th

2015:  16th

2016:  1st 

2017:  18th

2018:  18th

 

So yeah not top 10 talent, or production overall. You welcome

 

 

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8 minutes ago, RunCMC said:

 

You can’t just say when Luck was healthy. Were talking facts here, every wideout has played in some part of their career without their starting QB. And if your going to play that angle, I say Luck is the one taking him to that higher level, not the other way around. What would Odell, Cooper, Diggs, Mike Evans do with Luck under center... just saying. TY Hilton is in the top 15-20 Range.

 

And yes I can, btw first you mentioned talent, not production. But ill prove you wrong on both. Here are following recievers on a pure talent level better then him. AB , AJ Green, DHop, Julio, Keenan Allen,  Tyreek Hill, OBJ, Michael Thomas, Mike Evans, JuJu Smith, Amari Cooper, Steffon Diggs, Brandin Cooks ( debatable ) , Adam Thielen ( debatable ) Devante Adams (debatable) 

 

Now that we’re done with that. Lets go and see where he ranked yardage wise, since entering the league

 

Year: Rank    

2012 : 30th

2013 : 18th

2014:  6th

2015:  16th

2016:  1st 

2017:  18th

2018:  18th

 

So yeah not top 10 talent, or production overall. You welcome

 

 

all debatable.

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QB play matters. Where was Hopkins with Osweiler? Cooper did nothing for over two years and has never had a season close to TY's best. Several of the receivers you listed are debatable, as the poster above noted.

 

You note QB but ignore other relevant variables. A couple of the guys you mentioned benefit from having another pass catcher serve as the top focus of defenses. TY has not even had a legit number 2 WR. It's true he has played with a better QB than most, but he also hasn't had the benefit of being the number 2 option and/or having other major receiving threats. Moreover, he has never had the benefit of a good running game, again in contrast to many of the players you listed.

 

You can't list total yards since that is skewed by injuries (AJ Green has surpassed 1,100 yards once in five years). He has had a trio of seasons, including this one, in the top ten in yards per game.

 

A guy who leads the league in passing yards is, almost by definition, elite. 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited by Ace_King

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14 minutes ago, timexsocialclub said:

all debatable.

 

Your hilarious, but you have your opinion I have mine, ill maybe give you JuJu and Cooper, but Mike Evans.. seriously.

Yeah ok whatever, the numbers don’t lie. Dont even get me started on TD production.. 

13 minutes ago, Ace_King said:

QB play matters. Where was Hopkins with Osweiler? Cooper did nothing for over two years and has never had a season close to TY's best. Several of the receivers you listed are debatable, as the poster above noted.

 

You note QB but ignore other relevant variables. A couple of the guys you mentioned benefit from having another pass catcher serve as the top focus of defenses. TY has not even had a legit number 2 WR. It's true he has played with a better QB than most, but he also hasn't had the benefit of being the number 2 option and/or having other major receiving threats. Moreover, he has never had the benefit of a good running game, again in contrast to many of the players you listed.

 

You can't list total yards since that is skewed by injuries (AJ Green has surpassed 1,100 yards once in five years). He has had a trio of seasons, including this one, in the top ten in yards per game.

 

A guy who leads the league in passing yards is, almost by definition, elite. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

So how the hell do you want to compare then, jesus christ, what are you even saying man. Im talking numbers your talking non sense. 1 year outlier year, and your a top 10 talent.. yeahh okk. Lets continue numbers, TD production.. hes just plain bad, not bad but nowhere near elite. Go do your research. 

Edited by RunCMC
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Yeah I wouldn't say he's a top10- set and forget. He's finally been a bit more consistent when playing...but he's def peaks and valleys. The right week he is, for sure, a week winner and Luck gives him that kinda ceiling...easy. But he will dud in spots--even seemingly good spots too. Part of the package.

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8 minutes ago, timexsocialclub said:

all debatable.

 

Agreed. The receivers clearly ahead of him imo are Brown, Beckham, Jones, Hopkins, Thomas, Allen. Green appears to have fallen off but at his best he clearly was better than TY. You could also make a legit case for Hill, Evans over him. JJSS benefits from being opposite the best WR in the game, an elite running game and a good QB. Diggs and Thielen benefit from each other. Cooks has spent his entire career with elite QB play and elite receiving weapons around him. Cooper is better on paper than on the field. His abysmal production, now forgotten due to a star on his helmet and a few good games, speaks for itself.

 

We don't know how some of these guys would fare if they were the primary focus of opposing defenses like TY has been in the absence of another legit WR and a running game.

 

To be sure, TY benefits from Luck but most of these guys have great QB play too. Cooks has played with Brady, Brees, Goff. Adams has Rodgers. Brown and JJSS Ben. Allen has Rivers. Thomas has Brees. 

 

Green, Evans, the Minnesota duo have had mediocre QB play for most or all of their careers. Hopkins has as well, and we saw him disappear with Osweiler.

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9 minutes ago, ST. STEVEN said:

Yeah I wouldn't say he's a top10- set and forget. He's finally been a bit more consistent when playing...but he's def peaks and valleys. The right week he is, for sure, a week winner and Luck gives him that kinda ceiling...easy. But he will dud in spots--even seemingly good spots too. Part of the package.

 

You can say that about any WR other than Brown. Even Julio will go for 300 one week and 30 the next.

 

Mike Evans indeed is a TD machine. He also is incredibly inefficient for a top receiver.

 

I did my research--that is why I drafted TY. Only a fool would look at raw stats without putting them into context. 

Edited by Ace_King

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1 minute ago, Ace_King said:

 

You can say that about any WR other than Brown. Even Julio will go for 300 one week and 30 the next.

 

Mike Evans indeed is a TD machine. He also is incredibly inefficient for a top receiver.

 

I did my research--that is why I drafted TY. Only a fool would look at raw stats without putting them into context. 

You can say that about Brown, too. In fact, one could say that about Brown LAST week. 5/35/0

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13 minutes ago, RunCMC said:

 

Your hilarious, but you have your opinion I have mine, ill maybe give you JuJu and Cooper, but Mike Evans.. seriously.

Yeah ok whatever, the numbers don’t lie. Dont even get me started on TD production.. 

 

So how the hell do you want to compare then, jesus christ, what are you even saying man. Im talking numbers your talking non sense. 1 year outlier year, and your a top 10 talent.. yeahh okk. Lets continue numbers, TD production.. hes just plain bad, not bad but nowhere near elite. Go do your research. 

 

It's absurd to say "one outlier year", especially for a guy claiming to understand numbers. He has a trio of years at that yardage per game level over the past five years (he didn't get there his first two years). It's not an outlier when it happens that often, is it?

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6 minutes ago, timexsocialclub said:

You can say that about Brown, too. In fact, one could say that about Brown LAST week. 5/35/0

 

All WRs are yo yos (Brown was an exception until this year). That's why I lean heavily towards RBs in early rounds, given the guaranteed touches, and target guys like TY and Evans in the and get top ten production in the third round.

Edited by Ace_King
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3 minutes ago, Ace_King said:

 

You can say that about any WR other than Brown. Even Julio will go for 300 one week and 30 the next.

 

Mike Evans indeed is a TD machine. He also is incredibly inefficient for a top receiver.

 

I did my research--that is why I drafted TY. Only a fool would look at raw stats without putting them into context. 

 

 

Nope only a fool without looking at the numbers would say hes a top 10 talent. Your just a salty TY owner thats all. Proved it by saying so. Time and time again I tell you to look at the numbers,  you keep beating a dead horse with no factual evidence to backup any of your claims. Ok your right bro, whatever helps you sleep at night, done with you. 

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8 minutes ago, RunCMC said:

 

 

Nope only a fool without looking at the numbers would say hes a top 10 talent. Your just a salty TY owner thats all. Proved it by saying so. Time and time again I tell you to look at the numbers,  you keep beating a dead horse with no factual evidence to backup any of your claims. Ok your right bro, whatever helps you sleep at night, done with you. 

 

I did look at the numbers--and the context. That's why I drafted him. He was a value, like he was in 2016, because people like you look at raw numbers without context and miss crucial things relevant to projecting future performance. That's how you draft the league leader in yardage in the third or fourth round. 

 

I have only drafted TY in 2016 and 2018. Similarly, I was in on Evans this year, but not last year. I look for market inefficiencies.

 

Top 10, top 15 in real life. I couldn't care less. He is a top 10 fantasy producer when tethered to Luck. That's all I care about.

Edited by Ace_King

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90 yards per game translates to 1,440 over 16 games. That's insane value in the third round. Yeah, he missed two games but you can't project injuries. 

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8 minutes ago, Ace_King said:

 

I did look at the numbers--and the context. That's why I drafted him. He was a value, like he was in 2016, because people like you look at raw numbers without context and miss crucial things relevant to projecting future performance. That's how you draft the league leader in yardage in the third or fourth round. 

 

I have only drafted TY in 2016 and 2018. Similarly, I was in on Evans this year, but not last year. I look for market inefficiencies.

 

Again with 2016, 2016 , you know who else lead the league in receiving yards in 2013 ... Josh Gordon.. You see my point now. Really don’t know why your arguing with me or what your even arguing. I never once said hes not elite or a great receiver. He simply isnt a top 10 one, thats it. You could argue 10-15 , I honestly put him in the 15-20 range, especially when you factor in Touchdowns. Can we just leave it there, this is getting really redundant. 

Edited by RunCMC
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11 minutes ago, RunCMC said:

 

Again with 2016, 2016 , you know who else lead the league in receiving yards in 2013 ... Josh Gordon.. You see my point now. Really don’t know why your arguing with me or what your even arguing. I never once said hes not elite or a great receiver. He simply isnt a top 10 one, thats it. You could argue 10-15 , I honestly put him in the 15-20 range, especially when you factor in Touchdowns. Can we just leave it there, this is getting really redundant. 

 

What did Gordon do after that? What TY is doing this year is consistent with 2016. You know what else? It's consistent with what he did in 2014 as well. You're comparing an outlier to a fairly consistent producer.

 

This is why a guy averaging 90 yards a game can be drafted in the third round. 

 

He will never lead the league in TDs but the high yardage offsets some of that. You don't draft him for TDs. You draft him for the hope for 1,300-1,450 yards while you are drafting Gordon in the second round instead of a WR. 

Edited by Ace_King

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5 minutes ago, Ace_King said:

 

What did Gordon do after that? What TY is doing this year is consistent with 2016. You know what else? It's consistent with what he did in 2014 as well. You're comparing an outlier to a fairly consistent producer.

 

This is why a guy averaging 90 yards a game can be drafted in the third round. 

 

He will never lead the league in TDs but the high yardage offsets some of that. You don't draft him for TDs. You draft him for the hope for 1,300-1,450 yards while you are drafting Gordon in the second round instead of a WR. 

 

LMAO !! your something else, never once did I say compare Gordon to Hilton , it was to prove a point. Sorry bro, but stupidity won you the ignore list. Goodnight

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14 minutes ago, RunCMC said:

 

LMAO !! your something else, never once did I say compare Gordon to Hilton , it was to prove a point. Sorry bro, but stupidity won you the ignore list. Goodnight

 

The "point" was an outlier means nothing but, for whatever reason, you are unaware what he is doing now is consistent with what he has done in three of the last five years (despite this being spelled out for you multiple times). Only in your fantasy world was 2016 a one-time outlier. Again, this is why TY was going in the third round. 

 

90, 70, 91, 60, 90. According to you, 91 is the outlier. This isn't rocket science.

Edited by Ace_King

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F***

Y'all debating outliers, his eliteness...blah blah blah... ridiculous.

We know who ty Hilton is.

What I need to know is if he's playing this week coming off of an ultra elite week of production last week.

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Well, top 10 or not, I hope he’s healthy, is active, and plays at close to 100% this week.

 

Regarding the whole “talent” debate, there are roughly 5-6 WRs who are just complete stud talents in every facet, and then there are a bunch of guys that are elite at one thing or another.  Depending on what you like, you can put one ahead of the other.

 

All-Around Elite WRs (Talent-wise): Hopkins, Julio, AB, OBJ, Thomas, AJG (yes, he still belongs here when healthy)

 

Then you have guys that are Elite at one or two things, but aren’t complete like the top 6:

 

Tyreek (elite speed/big play ability), Allen (route-running/hands), etc., etc... I think Hilton falls into this category.  

 

Hilton has elite speed, and he’s actually a good route runner.  Above average hands, but lacks in the pysicality needed to be an elite possession WR.  

 

Cooper is an elite route-runner and Evans has elite physicality, but both have below average hands. You get the idea...

 

You can debate all day that second tier of WR talents, but to me it just depends on what you value.

 

From a fantasy standpoint, when Luck is healthy, Hilton is a low-end WR1... in the 8-12 range. That’s really all that matter for us as owners.

 

 

 

Edited by SkinsChargersFan

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14 hours ago, RunCMC said:

 

No hes not , hes a great receiver and you can even put him in elite status. But top 10 talent he definitely aint.   

 

Wait what? Who are 10 more talented WRs?

 

AB

ODB

Nuk

Julio

AJG

 

Think he is in the next tier after that. Can make a case anywhere from 6-10

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1 hour ago, SkinsChargersFan said:

Well, top 10 or not, I hope he’s healthy, is active, and plays at close to 100% this week.

 

Regarding the whole “talent” debate, there are roughly 5-6 WRs who are just complete stud talents in every facet, and then there are a bunch of guys that are elite at one thing or another.  Depending on what you like, you can put one ahead of the other.

 

All-Around Elite WRs (Talent-wise): Hopkins, Julio, AB, OBJ, Thomas, AJG (yes, he still belongs here when healthy)

 

Then you have guys that are Elite at one or two things, but aren’t complete like the top 6:

 

Tyreek (elite speed/big play ability), Allen (route-running/hands), etc., etc... I think Hilton falls into this category.  

 

Hilton has elite speed, and he’s actually a good route runner.  Above average hands, but lacks in the pysicality needed to be an elite possession WR.  

 

Cooper is an elite route-runner and Evans has elite physicality, but both have below average hands. You get the idea...

 

You can debate all day that second tier of WR talents, but to me it just depends on what you value.

 

From a fantasy standpoint, when Luck is healthy, Hilton is a low-end WR1... in the 8-12 range. That’s really all that matter for us as owners.

 

 

 

 

I don't think MT belongs in that top group.

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13 minutes ago, dmb3684 said:

 

I don't think MT belongs in that top group.

 

Yeah, I wouldn’t argue with you there... I’d put him 6th. He doesn’t really have a weakness though... maybe YAC ability.

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9 minutes ago, dmb3684 said:

 

I don't think MT belongs in that top group.

 

MT was 9th in receptions and 9th in receiving yards his rookie year in 2016 (despite missing 1 game), 3rd in receptions and 6th in receiving yards last year and is 2nd in receptions and 6th in receiving yards thus far this season. Seems pretty "top group" to me.

 

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