parrothead

Top 10 overvalued players for 2018 - agree or not?

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Saw an article on Fantasypro's when looking for some ADP data regarding the top 10 overvalued players...they did 5 hitters and 5 pitchers:

Hitters: Marte, Harper, Taylor, Judge, Polanco

PItchers: Archer, MadBum, Greinke, Ray, Paxton

 

Agree or disagree?  

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Hitters: Agree with Marte (PED's playing a personal opinion here), Taylor, Polanco. Not sure how Harper and Judge are overvalued since I could see them both in the 1st round and someone could make a case for it depending on league setup and such.

Pitchers: Greinke is overvalued. Not sure where Ray and Paxton are being taken but I believe they are very good pitchers and have a hard time thinking they are being overdrafted. 

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Taylor?   Is that Michael A. Taylor?  How would he be over valued?  People are actually worried about his playing time with Robles in the wings and Eaton back.

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6 minutes ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

Taylor?   Is that Michael A. Taylor?  How would he be over valued?  People are actually worried about his playing time with Robles in the wings and Eaton back.

I think he's referring to Chris Taylor whose ADP is no. 97.

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Yes its Chris...

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1 hour ago, Dark Kn19ht said:

Hitters: Agree with Marte (PED's playing a personal opinion here), Taylor, Polanco. Not sure how Harper and Judge are overvalued since I could see them both in the 1st round and someone could make a case for it depending on league setup and such.

Pitchers: Greinke is overvalued. Not sure where Ray and Paxton are being taken but I believe they are very good pitchers and have a hard time thinking they are being overdrafted. 

Bryce Harper (OF – WAS)

 


Hitter Rank: #6
“A player’s ranking typically suffers when they prove to not be durable (see Giancarlo Stanton

 

 and Clayton Kershaw

 

). For whatever reason, that isn’t the case with Bryce Harper despite him having never reached 530 at-bats and compiling fewer than 1,800 in the past four seasons. It isn’t as though he has been a dynamo either. He has never driven in 100 runs, only once hit 30+ homers (or 30+ doubles for that matter) and has hit below .275 three of his five seasons. Sure, the ceiling in astronomical, but that doesn’t mean he is likely to return top 5 overall value.”
– Bobby Sylvester (FantasyPros)

Aaron Judge (OF – NYY)

 


Hitter Rank: #15
“There is no doubting Judge’s power, but what if it comes with a sub-.230 batting average? That’s what he did in his brief 2016 debut and in the second half of 2017. He does a good job of getting on base and that lineup should help elevate the counting stats, but he could easily be a lot closer to Joey Gallo

 

 than anybody realizes. He’s got obvious value, but there is a ton of risk here as well.”
– Doug Anderson (RotoExperts

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1 hour ago, parrothead said:

Saw an article on Fantasypro's when looking for some ADP data regarding the top 10 overvalued players...they did 5 hitters and 5 pitchers:

Hitters: Marte, Harper, Taylor, Judge, Polanco

PItchers: Archer, MadBum, Greinke, Ray, Paxton

 

Agree or disagree?  

yes, to MadBum.   he may be fine, but he may not be due to the shoulder injury.   i'm avoiding at his cost/ADP this year.

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1 hour ago, parrothead said:

Saw an article on Fantasypro's when looking for some ADP data regarding the top 10 overvalued players...they did 5 hitters and 5 pitchers:

Hitters: Marte, Harper, Taylor, Judge, Polanco

PItchers: Archer, MadBum, Greinke, Ray, Paxton

 

Agree or disagree?  

 

I honestly agree with all of them except maybe Harper.    Archer is one that I can't really figure out, I like him a lot but he can't seem to be consistent and when he hurts you it REALLY hurts. 

 

 

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3 minutes ago, Zig Zag said:

 

I honestly agree with all of them except maybe Harper.    Archer is one that I can't really figure out, I like him a lot but he can't seem to be consistent and when he hurts you it REALLY hurts. 

 

 

I don't disagree with the Archer reality the past two years.  However, he flashed top 10 overall upside in 2015.  Not many pitchers can say that and have the peripherals to support it.

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9 minutes ago, parrothead said:

For whatever reason, that isn’t the case with Bryce Harper despite him having never reached 530 at-bats and compiling fewer than 1,800 in the past four seasons.

 

Seems a little disingenuous.  Barry Bonds didn't reach 530 ABs the last 8 years of his career either.  In 2001 he had one of the best fantasy seasons ever, with just 476 AB.

 

What's relevant are the PA, especially in an OBP league.

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Disagree on Judge. Think he'll be a consensus top-5 pick after this season. 

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13 minutes ago, kenag122002 said:

 

Seems a little disingenuous.  Barry Bonds didn't reach 530 ABs the last 8 years of his career either.  In 2001 he had one of the best fantasy seasons ever, with just 476 AB.

 

What's relevant are the PA, especially in an OBP league.

So thats disingenuous but lets use the greatest hitter to ever play the game as to why we shouldnt worry about at-bats?  I think the point he was making was most mere mortals need 500+ at-bats to produce first round counting stats, Bonds in those 5 years from 2000-2004 never had less than 45 home runs or 90RBI and all but the one year he had 90RBI he hit 100+ the other four years.  His production per at bat was ridiculous.  

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1 hour ago, parrothead said:

Saw an article on Fantasypro's when looking for some ADP data regarding the top 10 overvalued players...they did 5 hitters and 5 pitchers:

Hitters: Marte, Harper, Taylor, Judge, Polanco

PItchers: Archer, MadBum, Greinke, Ray, Paxton

 

Agree or disagree?  

pretty  much no on all of those except maybe marte and possibly ray, although his Ks are so good and a humidor might help him even more

Edited by jfazz23

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There is some risk with Judge sure- we all know the blemishes in his game by now but the ceiling in that lineup is just massive. Also you have to consider league scoring- in obp leagues his value is enormous

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Gregory Polanco?  Overvalued?  I figured he might go for a song.

 

Agree on Judge.  I own him in my keeper league at a real cheap price but trying to project his numbers for my team is tricky.  If people are expecting 50+ hr again....I think he will disappoint a lot of folks.  Agree on the rest.

 

MadBum is one I may target at the right price.

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Archer, yes unless he gets traded out of the AL East, he pitches a third of his games against those teams.

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2 hours ago, parrothead said:

Bryce Harper (OF – WAS)

 


Hitter Rank: #6
“A player’s ranking typically suffers when they prove to not be durable (see Giancarlo Stanton

 

 and Clayton Kershaw

 

). For whatever reason, that isn’t the case with Bryce Harper despite him having never reached 530 at-bats and compiling fewer than 1,800 in the past four seasons. It isn’t as though he has been a dynamo either. He has never driven in 100 runs, only once hit 30+ homers (or 30+ doubles for that matter) and has hit below .275 three of his five seasons. Sure, the ceiling in astronomical, but that doesn’t mean he is likely to return top 5 overall value.”
– Bobby Sylvester (FantasyPros)

Aaron Judge (OF – NYY)

 


Hitter Rank: #15
“There is no doubting Judge’s power, but what if it comes with a sub-.230 batting average? That’s what he did in his brief 2016 debut and in the second half of 2017. He does a good job of getting on base and that lineup should help elevate the counting stats, but he could easily be a lot closer to Joey Gallo

 

 than anybody realizes. He’s got obvious value, but there is a ton of risk here as well.”
– Doug Anderson (RotoExperts

Were you quoting me to disagree?

 

If Harper continues what he is doing he's worth a top 10 pick in my opinion and he is still young with room to improve. There is a balance to ceiling possibilities and production. The numbers that they're referencing aren't great, but we all know from watching him that he is capable of more and that it wouldn't shock anyone.

 

Judge was impressive and has room to improve. He finished 29th on the player rater last season so I don't really see #15 as too much of an "overdraft", at least not to put him in the top 5 of offensive players to be overdrafted.

 

Both get a bump in OBP leagues, if we're taking league type into consideration.

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2 hours ago, parrothead said:

Bryce Harper (OF – WAS)

 


Hitter Rank: #6
“A player’s ranking typically suffers when they prove to not be durable (see Giancarlo Stanton

 

 

If anything this proves the opposite since Giancarlo's 2017 proved he shouldn't have been discounted.  

 

Players with top 10 ceilings cannot really be overrated imho. Ever.

Edited by Magoo

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1 hour ago, azeri98 said:

Archer, yes unless he gets traded out of the AL East, he pitches a third of his games against those teams.

Archer is a one trick pony . K's only

To be considered a stud and placed in the top 10 you need to best the best . Not just the pushovers . 

Archer puts his team in the hole early therefore the Rays don't have the offense to did out of holes .Thats not just against the Red Sox  or Yankees . And neither Baltimore or the Jays have been that great recently . 

Can you say 31 loses in two years?

He' ll never be on any of my teams because I'm not about to select him that early or pay the price in auction leagues 

 

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well all i know is that i will own 0 shares of every player listed not named robby ray

unless something crazy happens during the draft and harper drops to 2nd rd ect.

Edited by colepenhagen

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8 hours ago, parrothead said:

Saw an article on Fantasypro's when looking for some ADP data regarding the top 10 overvalued players...they did 5 hitters and 5 pitchers:

Hitters: Marte, Harper, Taylor, Judge, Polanco

PItchers: Archer, MadBum, Greinke, Ray, Paxton

 

Agree or disagree?  

The only one on that list I would consider might be overvalued is Marte. But even with him I dont think many people are that high on his 2018 expectations. Polanco has fallen so far that its hard to over value him where hes going. And if anything, Harper/Judge/Taylor might be undervalued, at least in any league that uses some form of OBP/SLG/OPS.

 

I mean Fantasy Pros has Harper behind Betts and Arenado which seems a bit suspect imo, but hes #6 overall on their site - how is that over valued?

Then they have Chris Taylor at 195 which is absolutely absurd. They should embarrassed to have him so low.

 

Without even getting into the pitchers, I think that article should to straight into the toilet. And flush twice to make it doesn't linger in the bowl

 

Edited by cs3
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4 hours ago, Dark Kn19ht said:

 

Judge was impressive and has room to improve. He finished 29th on the player rater last season 

Im curious which format he ranked so low in? In all my leagues he was well inside the top 10 overall.

Points league with a huge penalty for K's?

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Yeah Harper's evaluation doesn't make sense.  One of the reasons he doesn't get so many at bats is because he walks so much.  And one of the reasons why his counting stats are down is because Eaton and TT have been injured. if Eaton and TT stay healthy and most importantly Harper stays healthy, he could easily hit 110+ Rbis and maybe be in the tail end of some double steals.  

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I don't think Harper, Bum, Paxton, or Ray are overvalued. I would happily take all 4.

Edited by Fuzzy_Slippers
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