parrothead

Top 10 overvalued players for 2018 - agree or not?

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15 hours ago, Magoo said:

If anything this proves the opposite since Giancarlo's 2017 proved he shouldn't have been discounted.  

 

Players with top 10 ceilings cannot really be overrated imho. Ever.

Tell that to the owners who invested 1st rounders in them for 2 years and got an avg of .250 27 65 2 53 - a broken clock is right twice a day also...

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10 hours ago, KingJoffrey said:

Yeah Harper's evaluation doesn't make sense.  One of the reasons he doesn't get so many at bats is because he walks so much.  And one of the reasons why his counting stats are down is because Eaton and TT have been injured. if Eaton and TT stay healthy and most importantly Harper stays healthy, he could easily hit 110+ Rbis and maybe be in the tail end of some double steals.  

The at-bats also has a lot to do with the fact that in his 5 full seasons (rookie year called up mid-way) he has averaged like 109 games played in 60% of the seasons he has been up for a full year. 

 

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11 hours ago, cs3 said:

Im curious which format he ranked so low in? In all my leagues he was well inside the top 10 overall.

Points league with a huge penalty for K's?

It was just a quick look at ESPN's player rater, that's currently down. Didn't catch what the formats they were using for the ranking. I assumed it was just standard stuff. 

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One of the things that was kind of weird about the list, is that to me "overvalue" has to do with draft ADP like is he going too high for what he is but this looks at where they rank as overall P/H so looking at them a little closer with this framework in mind. 

 

Bum as 5th ranked pitcher - So this is overvalued but not by huge margin but sill he is not No.5 in anyones rankings - pretty much consensus top 4  is known (Sale, Max, Kershaw and Kluber)and then most have Stras as No.5.  So if Bum is ranked in the top 5, its too high, that said after those 5, if someone has him 7th or 8th within that crop of pitchers?  I cant fault them, though I personally wont be a buyer on him this year unless auction price is too good to pass up. 

 

Harper - 6th Hitter - tough because I dont do overall, but lets say 1-2 pitchers go 1st round and he is the 6th hitter off the board taken like the 8th spot of the 1st round?  For me that is too high, I get the potential and in OBP leagues I can see the bump up a bit (which my league does not do) to me, I would like him more around the turn to into the middle of the 2nd round.  Obvioiusly potential talent for top 3-5 overall player, but history has shown injury risk which usually averages him more giving maybe late 2nd to 3rd round value?  Average the potential with that history and get low 1st/high 2nd. 

 

Ray #17 overall pitcher - not overvalued - talking mid P2, I have him ranked as a low end P1 in a 12-team league. 

Paxton - #19 - again, I think he is a P2, this is bottom half of the P2's in a 12 teamer - probably about where he goes, but maybe injury risk here similar to Harper as a hitter so could be P1 or P3 so P2 seems about avg spot. 

Greinke#11 - again low end P1 in a 12-teamer, not sure I consider this overvalued. 

 

Polanco - 77th Hitter?  Honestly its tougher with hitters because I dont do an overall list.  I have him about no.30 in my OF rankings right now - which might be a bit high.  Lets assume there are 35 hitters between the 4 IF spots, then maybe 5DH/C 

 

Taylor as 75th Hitter - this is probably an overvalue IMO - again hard to have raw number with no overall, but figure he would be more in the 90-range 

 

Judge at 15th Hitter - so figure with 5 pitchers going in first 2 rounds and him ranking as 15th hitter puts him around ADP of 20?  that is not an overvalue

 

Archer 15th P - this is high for me, especially in wins leagues on that team.  His ratios were liability levels and he wont win games.  I like him more in the P3 range to be honest so 25+ ranking for me.  He might be the most overvalued on the list in terms of my thoughts. 

 

So overvalue based on these rankings?  Archer and Taylor are probably the two big ones for me. 

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2 hours ago, parrothead said:

Tell that to the owners who invested 1st rounders in them for 2 years and got an avg of .250 27 65 2 53 - a broken clock is right twice a day also...

 

No I'm talking to the ones that invested a pick in him every year no matter the spot hoping his somewhat predictable upside hits.

 

Injury fear discounts for hitters are some of the easiest paths the profit.  

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[ Comments removed.  Make your points without bringing in derail-starting political comments. ]

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2 hours ago, Magoo said:

 

No I'm talking to the ones that invested a pick in him every year no matter the spot hoping his somewhat predictable upside hits.

 

Injury fear discounts for hitters are some of the easiest paths the profit.  

The key word there is discounts, taking someone in the first round in not a discount.  I just often wonder what it would take for Harper to not be a 1st round ADP guy?  

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On 2/8/2018 at 7:52 PM, cs3 said:

The only one on that list I would consider might be overvalued is Marte. But even with him I dont think many people are that high on his 2018 expectations. Polanco has fallen so far that its hard to over value him where hes going. And if anything, Harper/Judge/Taylor might be undervalued, at least in any league that uses some form of OBP/SLG/OPS.

 

I mean Fantasy Pros has Harper behind Betts and Arenado which seems a bit suspect imo, but hes #6 overall on their site - how is that over valued?

Then they have Chris Taylor at 195 which is absolutely absurd. They should embarrassed to have him so low.

 

Without even getting into the pitchers, I think that article should to straight into the toilet. And flush twice to make it doesn't linger in the bowl

 

 

This is 2 days old so things might have changed but Harper is #5 in FantasyPros consensus rankings (just above Mookie) and Taylor is #119 (highest rank is 84, lowest 169).

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Ya, looks like they fixed a couple things. There was one guy who had Jose Ramirez ranked in the 300's. Must have been thinking of the RP.

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On 2/8/2018 at 1:43 PM, parrothead said:

Saw an article on Fantasypro's when looking for some ADP data regarding the top 10 overvalued players...they did 5 hitters and 5 pitchers:

Hitters: Marte, Harper, Taylor, Judge, Polanco

PItchers: Archer, MadBum, Greinke, Ray, Paxton

 

Agree or disagree?  

Yeah Harper is in his walk year and will probably have one of those insane wOBA seasons with 40 dongs quite possible.  I also disagree with them on Bumgarner and Ray.  Polanco is around #140 and that's a spot I'd certainly want to grab him in regards to potential rewards. 

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Rhys gets my vote. Just don't see third round return likely here

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On 2/8/2018 at 3:05 PM, kenag122002 said:

 

Seems a little disingenuous.  Barry Bonds didn't reach 530 ABs the last 8 years of his career either.  In 2001 he had one of the best fantasy seasons ever, with just 476 AB.

 

What's relevant are the PA, especially in an OBP league.

Agree. The reason he doesn't get that many ABs is because his walk rate is so high - which means he's on base and gets more run scoring opportunities.

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1 hour ago, DaNamesBond22 said:

Agree. The reason he doesn't get that many ABs is because his walk rate is so high - which means he's on base and gets more run scoring opportunities.

Cant think of any other reason he doesnt get at-bats?  

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3 minutes ago, parrothead said:

Cant think of any other reason he doesnt get at-bats?  

Obviously, but using ABs as the only indicator is extremely lazy.

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8 minutes ago, DaNamesBond22 said:

Obviously, but using ABs as the only indicator is extremely lazy.

I know a lot of people who look at their total at-bats for their teams and try to win that category, figuring that if you win the at-bat war, you will do well in the counting stats.  The reality is that while some of us, even many of us on this board might do OBP, the overwhelming plurality to majority out there is still the 5 basic core of Batting Avg, HR, RBI, SB and Runs.  Walks are neutral on batting avg(though I would say a good eye can help a good avg) - dont help HR, only help RBI in the rare bases-loaded walk, could help steals but that is more philosophy and obviously would help runs.  So while there is certainly a narrative that OBP leagues he is more valuable, that is still a pretty small minority.  

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Hitters Opinions

 

Judge – Yes. He swings hard at everything. 2nd half .226 20 HR, think Khris Davis. Would you pay late 1st round, early 2nd round for Davis. I wouldn’t. (Also, I am biased and hate the Yankees. I also hate that they outwitted the Marlins and bought Stanton at Goodwill/Salvation Army pricing).

 

Harper – No. I LOVE Harper. His floor is safe for the 1st round which should be what you want. He will hit over .300, should hit 30+ maybe 40 HRs, counting stats on the Nats will be high, and has a chance to steal 10 which helps him past Arenado. He has the same scare that Springer does. They play the game with heart which is a risk for injury, but that isn’t an injury history.

 

Marte – No. I HATE players with PED issues. I HATE players that have a poor plate approach. Marte NEVER walks. Wait, why I am I say No? Ohh, that’s right .270 15HR/40SB. Love me high SBs without the hit on power. 49 ADP, that’s beginning of Round 5 in a 12 team. Yes, please.

 

Polanco – Yes. I have fallen for him numerous years projecting a 20/20 season. Or maybe even a 15/25 season. Anyone else? His Hard Hit % was awful last year suggesting 10 HR might be a stretch. He stole 8 bases last year and 18 the year before. So what do you get? The poor plate approach of Marte with a .270 10/20 ceiling. Even at a 140 ADP, there are better risks I could take.

 

Taylor – Yes. Don’t get me wrong. I liked what he did last season, it’s just that the players around him at his 97ADP are better in my opinion. You are paying for his ceiling which is a .280 20/20. The average should settle down to a .260-.270. His power numbers came out of nowhere even if they were consistent all season. I never buy a stock at its peak. This stock is at its peak.  

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On 2/8/2018 at 3:23 PM, parrothead said:

So thats disingenuous but lets use the greatest hitter to ever play the game as to why we shouldnt worry about at-bats?  I think the point he was making was most mere mortals need 500+ at-bats to produce first round counting stats, Bonds in those 5 years from 2000-2004 never had less than 45 home runs or 90RBI and all but the one year he had 90RBI he hit 100+ the other four years.  His production per at bat was ridiculous.  

 

Hyperbole was the point.  If a value of "greatness" doesn't apply to one of the greatest hitters ever, it's time to reevaluate and ask if it is a valid measure.

 

If you want to look at HR, great, do your analysis there, but comparing ABs seems silly, especially since there are many leagues that use OBP.

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16 hours ago, kenag122002 said:

 

Hyperbole was the point.  If a value of "greatness" doesn't apply to one of the greatest hitters ever, it's time to reevaluate and ask if it is a valid measure.

 

If you want to look at HR, great, do your analysis there, but comparing ABs seems silly, especially since there are many leagues that use OBP.

Well to be honest, he could of used plate appearances too.  Usually the top 100 (and again were not talking top 100 here, we are talking about rationale for a top 10 guy is that plate appearances/OBP) is usually in the high 500's, top 75 plate appearances is like 610 - 3 of last 5 years he has not gotten to 500 plate appearances. 

 

So the high OBP would be even better if he were getting year in year out 600+ plate appearances then the high OBP would have higher impact.  Its one of the reasons that Ichiro was such a bonus back in the day because not only did he have the highest avg but the avg was weighted even heavier  because he had so many at-bats, same could be used for plate appearances/obp.  

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17 minutes ago, parrothead said:

Well to be honest, he could of used plate appearances too.   

 

OK lets do it.  Last 3 years-- 654, 627, 492 PAs.  

Edited by kenag122002

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A sophomore slump is entirely possible for Judge but many seem to forget how monstrous he was to finish the season last year. 

After his horrendous July/August, in September/October Judge batted -

.311/29/15/32 - (season high in HRs/SLG/OPS)

All of this under a .283 BABIP while posting his best K/BB rate of the season with 32/28. 

He definitely comes with risk but we've seen him turn around that ugly slump into his best month of baseball ever. Sign me up.

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On 2/8/2018 at 2:43 PM, parrothead said:

Saw an article on Fantasypro's when looking for some ADP data regarding the top 10 overvalued players...they did 5 hitters and 5 pitchers:

Hitters: Marte, Harper, Taylor, Judge, Polanco

PItchers: Archer, MadBum, Greinke, Ray, Paxton

 

Agree or disagree?  

 

I'd have to look at the ADP data, but one guy I run into being constantly overvalued is Manny Machado. Anyone who has him in one of my dynasty leagues demands A guy like Bryant/Arenado/Harper + something else it seems like. His ADP may not reflect that, but I know those that have him in my keeper think they have Trout at 3B.

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On 2/11/2018 at 5:31 AM, WahooManiac said:

Rhys gets my vote. Just don't see third round return likely here

 

I was bummed out to see him ranked so high. I like him, but I am not going to pass up a known commodity for someone who played half a season last year in the 3-4 rounds.

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41 minutes ago, Picard56 said:

 

I was bummed out to see him ranked so high. I like him, but I am not going to pass up a known commodity for someone who played half a season last year in the 3-4 rounds.

There's just no risk accounted for in that price. I love the kid too, but damn.

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1 hour ago, kenag122002 said:

 

OK lets do it.  Last 3 years-- 654, 627, 492 PAs.  

The years he didnt get to 500 at bats, Im not sure he had 600 plate appearances, they kind of went hand in hand.  3 of 5 years.  It is what it is...

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