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Joe Musgrove 2018 Outlook

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Musgrove's last two seasons pitching regularly in the minors before being called up by the Astros:

 

2015 - AA, A+, A - 1.88 ERA, 100.2 IP, 99/8 K/BB ratio, 0.92 WHIP

 

2016 - AAA, AA - 2.74 ERA, 85.1 IP, 87/10 K/BB ratio, 1.04 WHIP

 

There was not a clear opening for him when he was called up so he was shuttled back and forth between the rotation and the bullpen.  The pedigree is there for this kid to be really solid with the type of control he showed in the minors.  I just hope the shoulder issues don't reappear.

Edited by countingcrow
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A super first start. Pirates are a pretty good team. They have a good, young rotation, the pen is very underrated and they seem to hit just enough. Meadows has come blasting on the scene. Gonna be fun in this city if they keep it up.

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Former first round pick, stuff in mid-high 90's, and came from Astros (spin rate) to the Pirates pitching coach guru and to a pitchers park. 

 

Not sure it'll last, but at this point of the season, not sure what more of an upside starting pitcher you're going to find unless Reyes is somehow available in your league. 

Edited by tonycpsu
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6 minutes ago, MackAttack007 said:

Former first round pick, stuff in mid-high 90's, and came from Astros (spin rate) to the Pirates pitching coach guru and to a pitchers park. 

 

Not sure it'll last, but at this point, not sure what more of an upside starting pitcher you're going to find at this point of the season unless Reyes is somehow available in your league. 

 

 

Yep. PNC is much nastier against righty hitters, but not an easy ride for lefties either. I've seen 10 or so games there this year...the number of balls that just die on the track are incredible. Maybe there is still some residual from the steel mills I can't see. LOL

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8 hours ago, MackAttack007 said:

Former first round pick, stuff in mid-high 90's, and came from Astros (spin rate) to the Pirates pitching coach guru and to a pitchers park. 

 

Not sure it'll last, but at this point of the season, not sure what more of an upside starting pitcher you're going to find unless Reyes is somehow available in your league. 

 

The same guru that forced peak pedro-lite Cole into a pitch to contact pitcher? Lol

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Firing that FB with strength and command:

Averaged 96 MPH with 77% strike rate

Compliments with a hard sinker at 94 MPH with 80% strike rate and 2 whiffs

FC (cutter) he threw a bunch at 91 MPH with 81% strike rate but no swings and misses

 

CH at 87 MPH and 2 whiffs

SL a barely slower at 86 MPH with solid horizontal action and 2 whiffs

 

It's a pretty firm repertoire, can see why he was brought along some in the pen. Need more data but it's exciting enough to take a stab in about any league-

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13 minutes ago, MackAttack007 said:

Is anyone bold enough to start him against the Cubs today? Thinking about it, but it's risky. 

 (raises hand) 

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13 minutes ago, Big League Choo said:

Im going to start him, hopefully I don't regret it! I like the K potential and hes at home.

 

Sat him last time due to first start off the DL and I won’t make that mistake again (instead I may make this, a different mistake).

 

vegas line only slightly favors Chicago and they predict a low scoring game relative to the rest of baseball today (only the games along the West Coast marine layer are predicted to have fewer runs scored)

 

 

Edited by merlin401
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Pretty good start v Chicago. Didn’t have his best command, and gave up some singles, but all in all a good performance against a top lineup.

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1 minute ago, tywalson said:

Pretty good start v Chicago. Didn’t have his best command, and gave up some singles, but all in all a good performance against a top lineup.

 

I will definitely take it given that first inning.  

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I followed most of his start on mlb app. His velocity gains are legit. Throwing a heater at 95+ with his groundball rate, good command, and pitching for Pitt, he seems worthy of a 12 team mixed hold for sure.

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8 minutes ago, Jimmymckrack said:

I followed most of his start on mlb app. His velocity gains are legit. Throwing a heater at 95+ with his groundball rate, good command, and pitching for Pitt, he seems worthy of a 12 team mixed hold for sure.

 

With the current state of pitching, I think it's pretty obvious that he's a hold in a 12 team mixed league.  

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I'm largely buying into this whole "Musgrove -- Pirate's Way" thing that I've heard a few people throw out. 

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6 minutes ago, CraftyRighty said:

Anyone afraid of the LAD and Cub matchups this week?

dodgers at home dont scare me too much.  cubs at wrigley is much scarrier, but im starting him in a weekly league....

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Musgrove is the ideal Pirates pitcher really. He has a four seam, cutter, and sinker. Fits very well into the fastball heavy approach (even though it seems they are starting to embrace offspeed more)

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10 minutes ago, herschel said:

dodgers at home dont scare me too much.  cubs at wrigley is much scarrier, but im starting him in a weekly league....

 

Yeah your right. My only other option is Thor so I might as well role Joe out this week!

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On 5/26/2018 at 1:28 AM, herschel said:

Must add in most leagues?

 

I really don't understand the hype about this guy.  He's got a career 4.26 ERA and 1.28 WHIP.  The Pirates are not a good team, so he won't do much in wins.  Sure, the 1.89 ERA on the surface looks good this year, but that's a 3 start sample size and the underlying metrics (3.48 FIP, 3.82 xFIP) don't support that ERA at all.  If you wanted to stream him against someone like the Marlins, sure, that would be good, but no way on earth would I start him against the Cubs at Wrigley.

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16 minutes ago, FootballFan101 said:

 

I really don't understand the hype about this guy.  He's got a career 4.26 ERA and 1.28 WHIP.  The Pirates are not a good team, so he won't do much in wins.  Sure, the 1.89 ERA on the surface looks good this year, but that's a 3 start sample size and the underlying metrics (3.48 FIP, 3.82 xFIP) don't support that ERA at all.  If you wanted to stream him against someone like the Marlins, sure, that would be good, but no way on earth would I start him against the Cubs at Wrigley.

Must add claims always depend on league specifics. However, looking at advanced metrics like FIP and xFIP after only 3 starts isn't the most helpful indicator of future success.

 

After that many starts I'd much rather look at the contact he's giving up. A hard hit rate around 28%, a swinging strike rate around 10%, and a GB rate of 46%. All really solid indicators.

 

And hell i don't think anyone believes he's a sub 2 ERA pitcher. Think most owners believe he's somewhere in the 3.30-3.80 range, which is still real useful in most leagues. 

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Bumped from tomorrow’s start against the cubs. Two starter next week.  Probably not a bad thing...

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6 minutes ago, herschel said:

Bumped from tomorrow’s start against the cubs. Two starter next week.  Probably not a bad thing...

 

Definitely a good thing.

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Disagree. Dbacks are getting hot. Cubs barely scored today. 

 

And don't teams rest hitters on sunday sometimes?

 

good luck @ AZ

Edited by Members_Only_76

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