NYR Fan 116894

LeSean McCoy 2018 Outlook

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Lol. Why is he good value. Y'all saw zeke last year right? This dude has 0.0% chance of getting out of this unscathed. 

 

This guy is a super easy pass for me. In the 4th round or 3rd round, I personally prefer to draft someone who will play NFL football again. 

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16 minutes ago, Dreams And Dwightmares said:

Lol. Why is he good value. Y'all saw zeke last year right? This dude has 0.0% chance of getting out of this unscathed. 

 

This guy is a super easy pass for me. In the 4th round or 3rd round, I personally prefer to draft someone who will play NFL football again. 

Really? i saw reports of him returning to training camp

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Lets just say come pre-season week 3 reports are he is in the clear. Do you prefer in the late 2nd/early 3rd over people like Freeman, McKinnon, Jordan Howard? McCoy is a beast and is going to get volume but the buffalo offense looks like it's going to be horrid. Terrible o-line on paper, rookie QB, one of the weakest WR cores in the nfl. Seems like even if he does play by week 14 they could just be looking towards the off-season, and if McCoy is slightly dinged up they might just shut him down. 

 

Do you prefer going with one of those RB's that are all on better teams/offenses?

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52 minutes ago, Breesus said:

Lets just say come pre-season week 3 reports are he is in the clear. Do you prefer in the late 2nd/early 3rd over people like Freeman, McKinnon, Jordan Howard? McCoy is a beast and is going to get volume but the buffalo offense looks like it's going to be horrid. Terrible o-line on paper, rookie QB, one of the weakest WR cores in the nfl. Seems like even if he does play by week 14 they could just be looking towards the off-season, and if McCoy is slightly dinged up they might just shut him down. 

 

Do you prefer going with one of those RB's that are all on better teams/offenses?

Assuming hes clear, Id put them...

 

Freeman

McCoy

Howard

McKinnon

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1 hour ago, Dreams And Dwightmares said:

Only bills RB I'm gonna own is Chris ivory 

 

I'll do ya one better. Don't draft any bills rbs. Matter of fact, avoid the only team that plays in New York altogether. 

 

McCoy can't fall far enough for me to take him. Ok, maybe the 7th. Maybe. 

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9 hours ago, TomisTerrific said:

 

I'll do ya one better. Don't draft any bills rbs. Matter of fact, avoid the only team that plays in New York altogether. 

 

McCoy can't fall far enough for me to take him. Ok, maybe the 7th. Maybe. 

 

this guy gets it

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I'm gonna let everybody sleep on Shady and snag him in the 3rd if he's around. 

 

Got a feeling he's gonna blow up in PPR with the WR corp being so-so and a rookie at QB behind a weak OL.  Hot read much?  Lots of oh f--- dump offs incoming.

 

 

 

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On ‎7‎/‎23‎/‎2018 at 10:13 AM, ponza88 said:

He's a great buy atm.

We agree. If people are comparing his situation to Zeke's from last season it will only make him an even better value.

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Even if you look past the allegations - I still am not a fan. 

 

No Cordy Glenn or Richie Incognito, inexperienced or rookie QB, weak WR corps and at that magical age of 30. 

 

I think McCoy is talented enough to defy Father Time for another year and he will get the volume but his situation sucks and he hasn't been the healthiest player throughout his career and I don't see that changing at 30. 

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1 hour ago, PolarBear said:

Even if you look past the allegations - I still am not a fan. 

 

No Cordy Glenn or Richie Incognito, inexperienced or rookie QB, weak WR corps and at that magical age of 30. 

 

I think McCoy is talented enough to defy Father Time for another year and he will get the volume but his situation sucks and he hasn't been the healthiest player throughout his career and I don't see that changing at 30. 

 

Looks pretty reliable to me

 

Year Age G GS Rush Yds TD
2009 21 16 4 155 637 4
2010 22 15 13 207 1080 7
2011*+ 23 15 15 273 1309 17
2012 24 12 12 200 840 2
2013*+ 25 16 16 314 1607 9
2014* 26 16 16 312 1319 5
2015* 27 12 12 203 895 3
2016* 28 15 15 234 1267 13
2017* 29 16 16 287 1138 6
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47 minutes ago, bhawks489 said:

 

Looks pretty reliable to me

 

 

Year Age G GS Rush Yds TD
2009 21 16 4 155 637 4
2010 22 15 13 207 1080 7
2011*+ 23 15 15 273 1309 17
2012 24 12 12 200 840 2
2013*+ 25 16 16 314 1607 9
2014* 26 16 16 312 1319 5
2015* 27 12 12 203 895 3
2016* 28 15 15 234 1267 13
2017* 29 16 16 287 1138 6

 

He is like Julio - always hurt but never injured. 

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19 minutes ago, PolarBear said:

 

He is like Julio - always hurt but never injured. 

I can post the game logs too, they are pretty impressive

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3 minutes ago, bhawks489 said:

I can post the game logs too, they are pretty impressive

 

Past performance isn't an indicator of future performance. 

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4 minutes ago, PolarBear said:

 

Past performance isn't an indicator of future performance. 

Well, how do you judge how a player will perform? I am generally curious. Measureables? Combine? 

 

 

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7 minutes ago, PolarBear said:

 

Past performance isn't an indicator of future performance. 

Yes it is? Not the definitive and only, but if anything, the correlation between past and future performance is higher than anything else you can throw at it.

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Based on the current information available to me... I don't think he misses a single snap, at least not related to this alleged off-field issue.  Top 10 RB for me until anything changes.

 

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2 hours ago, bhawks489 said:

Well, how do you judge how a player will perform? I am generally curious. Measureables? Combine? 

 

 

 

You have to take in a whole bunch of factors.  Does past performance play a role? Of course.  Is it the only factor? No. 

 

Saquon Barkley hasn't taken a snap in the NFL and most will take him in the 1st round this year and he hasn't played a down in the NFL.  

 

Shady's offensive line lost 2 of its 3 best players, they have two inexperienced starting QB's and a below average group of receiving talent. He is another year older with another close to 300 touches on his body.  Throw in the allegations and there is really not much to be excited about it when it comes to Lesean McCoy.  

 

I would rather look elsewhere than get bitten by a RB past his used by date with my 2nd round draft choice. 

 

 

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6 minutes ago, PolarBear said:

 

You have to take in a whole bunch of factors.  Does past performance play a role? Of course.  Is it the only factor? No. 

 

Saquon Barkley hasn't taken a snap in the NFL and most will take him in the 1st round this year and he hasn't played a down in the NFL.  

 

Shady's offensive line lost 2 of its 3 best players, they have two inexperienced starting QB's and a below average group of receiving talent. He is another year older with another close to 300 touches on his body.  Throw in the allegations and there is really not much to be excited about it when it comes to Lesean McCoy.  

 

I would rather look elsewhere than get bitten by a RB past his used by date with my 2nd round draft choice. 

 

If you don't think people are drafting Saquon Barkley based on his past performance, then you're a special kind of oblivious.  Just because it wasn't in the NFL, doesn't mean it doesn't exist.

 

I like Tyrod Taylor, but as far as QB play effecting the RB position, I'm not convinced Tyrod to whoever is as big of a deal as you're trying to make it out to be.  Inexperienced QB = check downs, who do you think those are going to?  Less QB runs = more goal line work for McCoy.  Tyrod actually led the team in Red Zone rushing TDs last year with 4 of them on 10 attempts, 3 of which came within the 5 yard line.  Who do you think those are going to?

Wide receivers?  Come on, what WRs do you think were threatening defenses last year when McCoy just finished 7th in fantasy points?  Was it team leading receiver Zay Jones who caught 27 balls for a massive 316 yards?  Stop it.

 

300 touches?  First valid point, but to be fair, McCoy's career carries are lower than people assume.  A lot of his touches have come from receptions, which wear far less on a RBs legs/body.  Frank Gore, is of course the exception not the rule, but for perspective, Gore is 5 years older, with nearly 1,000 more carries than McCoy, and just produced 261 carries, on a trash team with no QB, for nearly 1,000 yards rushing.  

McCoy showed no signs of slowing down last year, in fact over the final 7 games of the season (week 17 excluded, he left roughly half way through) he averaged 2 carries, 20 yards, and 3.3 fantasy points per game, more than he did in the first 9 games of the season, as well as his YPC actually jumped to 4.4 vs his 3.7 rate through the first half of the year.

 

McCoy's current ADP is already down to the mid 3rd, so your 2nd round price is also inaccurate.

 

There are legitimate and valid reasons to be weary of McCoy this year, I don't fault anyone for being cynical, but you don't have to make crap up, or cling to some far fetched conspiracy theory to try and validate yourself.  Just say, 'He's getting older, the Oline sucks, and the off field scare is enough for me to avoid.'.  No harm in that, unless you insist on repeating it for 3 pages in a row as if you're presenting new information.

 

But don't come in here talking about WRs as if he had any last year.  Don't talk to me about QB play, as if Tyrods 2800/14 last year was scaring defenses into taking men out of the box to cover Zay Jones and his 27 catches.  Don't act like some party invitation from 3 years ago has any correlation with beating women.  That's garbage analysis.

 

More important than any of the above, is opportunity cost.

You don't like McCoys valid flaws, perfectly reasonable.  Tell me why you think Darrius Guice or Derrick Henry are safer, offer more upside, or are more likely to finish top 10 this year. (Next 2 RBs being drafted after him)  Because right now, if I want a RB in the 3rd round, those are the only options.  These 2 and McCoy.  Justify either of these backs over McCoy, because that's the only way you can convince me he's not the best RB on the board in the 3rd round.

 

Alternate WR options?  Josh Gordon.  If you try to tell me McCoys suspension risk is more than Gordon's, I'm just going to fast track you to my ignore list.

Larry Fitzgerald.  Good luck explaining why Age, Workload, bad Oline, and new QB disqualify McCoy but not Fitz.  Eager to hear that one.

Maybe Travis Kelce?  At least that would be a strategy discussion worth having.

Poll the room:

Travis Kelce(31)+Lamar Miller(55) vs McCoy(29)+Jimmy Graham(53) Which side do you prefer?  That's a real world team building exercise that people will need to know.  McCoy and Engram vs Kelce and Cohen.  If we're talking strategy, how about QBs.  McCoy+K.Cousins vs A.Rodgers(or D.Watson)+C.Hyde?  McCoy+Cam vs Rodgers+Lynch?

 

Opportunity cost is a discussion worth having.

Pages of repeating potential suspension, age, workload, and other nonsense serve zero purpose and carry no value to anyone beyond the first mention.  Those are non-debatable knowns that have no discussional depth.  Let's talk actual value, actual alternatives, weigh pros and cons, talk actual draft strategy and try to have a conversation that actually benefits people, ourselves included.  Enlighten me, or... be a parrot; your choice.

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8 minutes ago, Boudewijn said:

Can we leave the assumptions and allegations aside and go back to the boring matter of McCoy on the field? It's not as if there are no question marks there.

Sure-  just for you.  

 

I’ll take any discount I can on him.  He’s playing for a gold jacket and they’ll need him to touch the ball as much as ever.  He’s too old to think they will shut him down for next year.    You milk whatever performance you can now- sell those jerseys, tickets, and hotdogs.   Any continued reduction in efficiency will be offset by volume and his demonstrated penchant for explosive plays.    He’s shown no decline in physical abilities.     This is all smoke and mirrors-  draft him any chance you get in the second on, and enjoy the fireworks. 

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I believe in standard he's worth a 6th round pick on a 12 team.

Would take him in the early 3rd in PPR.  He's gonna get a s--- ton of volume in the passing game.

 

obv if any of this legal stuff gets tied to him ahead of draft he's a late round flyer or DND.

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He's still not a bad play in the 4-5 round providing obviously he's in no legal trouble. With his receptions alone, and we've all seen defenses lay off end of games or seasons when up on bad teams, garbage time counts too. I'd much rather roll with him at that price point then McKinnon for ex in 2-3 rounds.

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