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LeSean McCoy 2018 Season Outlook

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3 hours ago, BrianM said:

Ehh, i'd prefer round 3

 

Gotta take the following before Shady now, i think:  Gurley, Bell, Zeke, DJ, Hunt, Fournette, Gordon, Kamara, Ingram, Freeman

Considering as well: Barkley, any other clearly starting rookie, Cook, McCaffrey

 

The draft is clearly going to reshape this team, so we'll be revisiting all this in a few weeks I'm sure

 

 

 

Barkley is gonna go before half the guys on the first list.

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18 minutes ago, dmb3684 said:

 

Nah Jets have the longest odds to win the Super Bowl.

 

https://www.oddsshark.com/super-bowl/futures

 

Odds to win the superbowl arent really the question here, it’s who will win the least in the AFC east?

 

I think the Jets are good for at least 3-6 wins given their schedule, defense and coach.  

 

 

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These Super Bowl odds seem a little off to me. 49ers ranked alongside Steelers and ahead of Packers / Saints? All good tho

 

The heart of this Buffalo team has always been its run game. I worry a little about Shady this year in large part to the loss of Incognito. Potential QB picks aside, the Bills would be wise to spend some early draft ammo to shore up that O line. 

 

Shady another year older and still great, but a new QB and No receiving corp is going to be a problem.

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1 hour ago, Iron-cock said:

 

Odds to win the superbowl arent really the question here, it’s who will win the least in the AFC east?

 

I think the Jets are good for at least 3-6 wins given their schedule, defense and coach.  

 

 

 

They don't post win totals till after the draft I don't think. I'm assuming the order of the list will be similar. 

 

I think I'd take Cards as the team to have the worst record. That division is brutal.

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Good quality thread, guys (and gals?).

 

I really like the analysis, speculation based on roster changes, and stats.  And no one flamed anyone else.

 

That said, I am off Shady.  Much more name than game at this point.  And the team is falling apart around him.

 

No thanks. 

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12 hours ago, dmb3684 said:

 

Barkley is gonna go before half the guys on the first list.

 

Probably, but he needs a home before I can say that for certain.    

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10 hours ago, SharkSwimmer said:

Good quality thread, guys (and gals?).

 

I really like the analysis, speculation based on roster changes, and stats.  And no one flamed anyone else.

 

That said, I am off Shady.  Much more name than game at this point.  And the team is falling apart around him.

 

No thanks. 

 

I'm also not touching him. Just get bored at work.

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Living in WNY, its a sure thing that he'll go as early as possible here, so i have even less chance of getting him later on than all of you do.   All that does is free up a better back to go one spot later.....works for me.   

 

But, i'll add again, lets see what the draft brings.   

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10 hours ago, SharkSwimmer said:

Much more name than game at this point.  And the team is falling apart around him.

 

Agree with the second sentence.  Not the first.  

I’ve owned shady in multiple leagues the last few seasons and I cant see much difference in explosiveness. Just worse play around him and no change of pace guy to punch it in.  That’s the reason for his decline in YPR/YAC.  This year could definitely see that trend continue-  but if the volume is still there, so is Rb1 potential. 

 

2017- 11 rushes and 3 receptions over 20 yards, including playsa 48, 39, 37,36, 32

 

2016- 13 plays over 20 yards

 

2015- 9 plays over 20 yards.  

 

For reference:  2017- Leveon Bell had 8 plays over 20

 

 

 

 

Edited by Impreza178
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53 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:

 

Agree with the second sentence.  Not the first.  

I’ve owned shady in multiple leagues the last few seasons and I cant see much difference in explosiveness. Just worse play around him and no change of pace guy to punch it in.  That’s the reason for his decline in YPR/YAC.  This year could definitely see that trend continue-  but if the volume is still there, so is Rb1 potential. 

 

2017- 11 rushes and 3 receptions over 20 yards, including playsa 48, 39, 37,36, 32

 

2016- 13 plays over 20 yards

 

2015- 9 plays over 20 yards.  

 

For reference:  2017- Leveon Bell had 8 plays over 20

 

 

 

 

 

Yep, he's still got it.   If he switched places with Ezekiel Elliott tomorrow, and got the same usage, he'd be a top 5 fantasy RB.    

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On 4/12/2018 at 7:22 AM, Impreza178 said:

 

Agree with the second sentence.  Not the first.  

I’ve owned shady in multiple leagues the last few seasons and I cant see much difference in explosiveness. Just worse play around him and no change of pace guy to punch it in.  That’s the reason for his decline in YPR/YAC.  This year could definitely see that trend continue-  but if the volume is still there, so is Rb1 potential. 

 

2017- 11 rushes and 3 receptions over 20 yards, including playsa 48, 39, 37,36, 32

 

2016- 13 plays over 20 yards

 

2015- 9 plays over 20 yards.  

 

For reference:  2017- Leveon Bell had 8 plays over 20

 

 

 

 

 

Shady was around RB7 in PPR last season.  He only posted 3 bad weeks really.

 

That said, he'll be 30 in August.  Buffalo's QB situation looks ominous.  The OL has to be worse, doesn't it?

 

In FFC 12 team PPR, Shady's ADP is mid-2nd.  He is followed by McKinnon, Howard, Mixon, Ingram and Henry.  Doubts notwithstanding, should any of those options be ranked ahead of him?  

 

Each season, there are certain guys that you hope get snapped up before your time comes because you just don't want to face the decision to take them.  Shady is one of those guys for me.  I don't want the responsibility of taking or passing on him.

 

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1 hour ago, Rolling Thunder said:

In FFC 12 team PPR, Shady's ADP is mid-2nd.  He is followed by McKinnon, Howard, Mixon, Ingram and Henry.  Doubts notwithstanding, should any of those options be ranked ahead of him?  

 

 

Would be crazy to take Ingram over him, I think, and I'll say Henry too.   Both have questionable volume coming their way.   Shady's still going to be top 20 RB at worst as long as he's playing, and I'm sure 300 touches are coming.   McKinnon, Howard, and Mixon all could be fair to move in front of him, though Howard should only be ahead of McCoy in standard.  in PPR, McCoy is better, he's still primed to catch a lot of balls. 

 

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3 hours ago, Rolling Thunder said:

 

Shady was around RB7 in PPR last season.  He only posted 3 bad weeks really.

 

That said, he'll be 30 in August.  Buffalo's QB situation looks ominous.  The OL has to be worse, doesn't it?

 

In FFC 12 team PPR, Shady's ADP is mid-2nd.  He is followed by McKinnon, Howard, Mixon, Ingram and Henry.  Doubts notwithstanding, should any of those options be ranked ahead of him?  

 

Each season, there are certain guys that you hope get snapped up before your time comes because you just don't want to face the decision to take them.  Shady is one of those guys for me.  I don't want the responsibility of taking or passing on him.

 

 

First off- it’s an honor and a privilege to have the opportunity to draft Shady McCoy.  Let’s get that straight :D

 

You are overthinking it man.   he is supremely talented and the unquestioned focal point of the bills.   If the situation was better he’s a top 5 or 6 pick- right up with Kamara and DJ.   

 

Its really that simple for me RT.  I wouldn’t blame anyone for taking Mixon, McKinnon, or Howard over him tho.   

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1 hour ago, Impreza178 said:

 

First off- it’s an honor and a privilege to have the opportunity to draft Shady McCoy.  Let’s get that straight :D

 

You are overthinking it man.   he is supremely talented and the unquestioned focal point of the bills.   If the situation was better he’s a top 5 or 6 pick- right up with Kamara and DJ.   

 

Its really that simple for me RT.  I wouldn’t blame anyone for taking Mixon, McKinnon, or Howard over him tho.   

I’d take Shady over Mixon in rankings, but in reality I avoid the old RBs. 

 

The Good: Shady had the 3rd highest rushing volume of his career (2017)

The Bad: Shady had the lowest Ave. of his career (2017)

 

Shady will get a lot of work in 2018, but I don’t like the offense.  

 

Howard isn’t going to catch many passes, but I like him better in both Standard & PPR.

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I think I said this before on this thread, might be a repeat, but he's probably now Colts Frank Gore, just a little younger.   Gore still hovered around top RB2 status in 2015 and 2016 just by surviving and getting touches.     You can lower expectations on McCoy, and expect him not to finish in the top 10, and that's proper assessment, but dropping him off the map entirely is missing out.     Granted, if he'll cost you your first overall pick, let him go, those days are gone.  But if its the mid third in a PPR league, and your RB options are slipping to the non Barkley rookies and McCoy is still there, pull the trigger. 

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55 minutes ago, BrianM said:

I think I said this before on this thread, might be a repeat, but he's probably now Colts Frank Gore, just a little younger.   Gore still hovered around top RB2 status in 2015 and 2016 just by surviving and getting touches.     You can lower expectations on McCoy, and expect him not to finish in the top 10, and that's proper assessment, but dropping him off the map entirely is missing out.     Granted, if he'll cost you your first overall pick, let him go, those days are gone.  But if its the mid third in a PPR league, and your RB options are slipping to the non Barkley rookies and McCoy is still there, pull the trigger. 

LeSean McCoy is Frank Gore.   

 

You are better than that

 

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17 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:

LeSean McCoy is Frank Gore.   

 

You are better than that

 

 

Fantasy wise- nothing more.     

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18 hours ago, Impreza178 said:

 

First off- it’s an honor and a privilege to have the opportunity to draft Shady McCoy.  Let’s get that straight :D

 

You are overthinking it man.   he is supremely talented and the unquestioned focal point of the bills.   If the situation was better he’s a top 5 or 6 pick- right up with Kamara and DJ.   

 

Its really that simple for me RT.  I wouldn’t blame anyone for taking Mixon, McKinnon, or Howard over him tho.   

 

 Nothing wrong with simplicity!!

 

I love the player.  Always have.  He helped me alot a few seasons ago.

 

In FFC 12 team PPR, he is right around mid-2nd right now.  If I knew that Buffalo had a QB and some semblance of an OL, I'd feel way better.  

 

If smoke starts coming from the dumpster early, isn't there a big risk that Shady gets dialed back (by choice or otherwise) to an annoying (for us) degree?  At the same time, what are the odds that Shady has one of his better years with this current supporting cast?  I feel as if he offers a somewhat risky floor without upside to support the wager.  As with everything I suppose, price at the time purchase is the final deciding factor.

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12 minutes ago, Rolling Thunder said:

 

 Nothing wrong with simplicity!!

 

I love the player.  Always have.  He helped me alot a few seasons ago.

 

In FFC 12 team PPR, he is right around mid-2nd right now.  If I knew that Buffalo had a QB and some semblance of an OL, I'd feel way better.  

 

If smoke starts coming from the dumpster early, isn't there a big risk that Shady gets dialed back (by choice or otherwise) to an annoying (for us) degree?  At the same time, what are the odds that Shady has one of his better years with this current supporting cast?  I feel as if he offers a somewhat risky floor without upside to support the wager.  As with everything I suppose, price at the time purchase is the final deciding factor.

Shady has his sights set on a gold jacket.  I don’t see any motivation for dialing him back- and that’s not how a team like Buffalo operates anyway.  He’s their offense.  

 

If mostly healthy he will be among the league leaders in touches, and I believe the “he’s slowing down” narrative has been dispelled.   

 

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18 hours ago, seanismorris said:

I’d take Shady over Mixon in rankings, but in reality I avoid the old RBs. 

 

The Good: Shady had the 3rd highest rushing volume of his career (2017)

The Bad: Shady had the lowest Ave. of his career (2017)

 

Shady will get a lot of work in 2018, but I don’t like the offense.  

 

Howard isn’t going to catch many passes, but I like him better in both Standard & PPR.

 

Mixon got Shady's left tackle.

Not sure what Shady has, other than Dalton's backup, no protection, and little run blocking that will get him to the second and third level.

I'd take Mixon, without hesitation.  He has blocking, receivers, and a QB who will open up running lanes.

 

We're not drafting for last year.  Things have changed.  Need to keep up.

I've had Shady the last two years and didn't regret it.  Got him late 1st and early 2nd last two years.  Younger kids have more upside with higher floors.

 

 

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[There are reports emerging that allege that McCoy has engaged in domestic violence and animal abuse.  This thread is not the place to debate the veracity of these reports, litigate the very sketchy details that we know right now, or make light of what appears to be a very sad situation all around.  Until there's more clarity about what's going on, we assume you all are capable of reading Twitter, blogs, etc. to fill in the details and engage in whatever speculation you'd like, but if the quality of the early comments on this are any indication, we're going to need a bit of a cooling off period here before we have enough information to engage in a substantive discussion of his fantasy value.  Consequently, the thread will be locked until further notice.]

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