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Dallas Keuchel 2018 Outlook

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What do you guys think of Keuchel going into the 2018 season? He's currently the 17-22 SP off the board. He's playing for one of the best teams in baseball, playing for a contract, still possesses that killer GB rate. I can see him being a dark horse for CY young this year.

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His 2017 2nd half was brutal but he was pitching through a foot injury. Fangraphs is projecting a 3.69 ERA for him which would really hurt his value considering he gets drafted to anchor your team's ERA and WHIP. That seems high to me, though.

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I will be targeting Keuchel this season. Plays for the best team in baseball and has the highest GB% in the majors.  Plus, he's great at limiting hard contact. He should be a pretty solid SP2 this season. His ERA should land in the 3.45 - 3.55 range. We just need to hope that he can throw 190+ innings.

Edited by Fuzzy_Slippers
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how much does his value change in h2h compared to roto? i understand the low k rate and keuchal not looking appealing in roto with inn limit but does he get a bump in value in h2h?

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I was watching highlights of his start on MLB.com and the announcer said his fastball was 96. Can that be right? That's way above where he normally throws is it not?

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On 2/20/2018 at 5:48 AM, TekilaAF said:

How is his foot looking now? Would you draft him before Verlander this season?

JV is top 8ish material IMO.  Keuchel is a great #2 though.  I think he will be a CY young challenger this season and will outproduce that ADP.  His K rate will improve as well if he's throwing mid 90s like the poster above said.  He's generally been around 90.  Along with a league leading 69% GB rate, his best metrics are the highest soft contact rate and lowest hard contact rate last season with each around 25%.  

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6 hours ago, Gandalfthecat said:

I was watching highlights of his start on MLB.com and the announcer said his fastball was 96. Can that be right? 

 

Doubt that. I believe his top end is low 90’s and might average less than 90 recently (2017). 

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Not happy about drafting him as my #2. 

 

Does he wear #60 because that’s how many pitches it takes him to get thru 2 innings?

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I don’t own Keuchel this year, but have owned him on and off over the last few years. One thing I’ve noticed is dude pitches like a CY pitcher at home and is a SP4 on the road. It’s not like they play in PETCO, so not sure I can explain it, but the career numbers confirm. 

 

H- 2.93 ERA, 1.13 WHIP

A- 4.43 ERA, 1.36 WHIP

 

I know you don’t want to “stream” your SP2, but a couple years ago I had a ton of success just running him out there at home. 

Take this FWIW

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Kudos to DK for at least netting 6 Ks. IIRC he had 1 through 2. I'm sure he's done at 102 pitches through 4 innings.

 

He was awful - but he still got the 6 Ks.

 

My theory is he just doesn't like the cold weather. He never looked very comfortable out there which is unusual for him.

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42 minutes ago, Backdoor Slider said:

I don’t own Keuchel this year, but have owned him on and off over the last few years. One thing I’ve noticed is dude pitches like a CY pitcher at home and is a SP4 on the road. It’s not like they play in PETCO, so not sure I can explain it, but the career numbers confirm. 

 

H- 2.93 ERA, 1.13 WHIP

A- 4.43 ERA, 1.36 WHIP

 

I know you don’t want to “stream” your SP2, but a couple years ago I had a ton of success just running him out there at home. 

Take this FWIW

Good info

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3 hours ago, rrrrich46 said:

Anyone feel like he is a buy low? The W's will start coming in.. 

 

or...are we heading back to 2016 again?  His WHIP is concerning to me....I was offered Keuchel recently and passed.  But, I owned him in 2016 so the taste in my mouth is a little sour.  I'm a bad fantasy baller that way....I don't have short memory.

Edited by Damn Yankee

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On 3/11/2018 at 7:29 PM, Gandalfthecat said:

I was watching highlights of his start on MLB.com and the announcer said his fastball was 96. Can that be right? That's way above where he normally throws is it not?

 

His fastball is closer to 86 then it is 96.

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I think we should see the first half 2017 version of him this season. Every time I have watched him he looks like the regular Keuchel. I think his velocity is up this year but just a tad. I do not remember him pitching most of his fastballs at or over 90 mph last year but this year it seems as though he is. Buy him now for cheap if you can. 

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I was worried earlier in the season but he's pitched pretty well lately.  Even in that one mediocre start a week or two ago he was pristine thru 5 or 6 innings before he gave up a 6 spot in the 7th.

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