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bbythepier

Justin Bour 2018 Outlook

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ADP ~ 190-200

 

Negatives:

 

Lost some good OBP guys in front of him in Gordon, Yelich & Stanton. Maybe even Realmuto.

 

Injury prone 3yrs in MLB.

 

 

Positives: 

Projects to get a better run producing spot in the lineup which also leads to a slight uptick in PAs/G (I project Mattingly to hit him 3rd, Roster Resource suggests cleanup)

 

Based on his MiLB career where he often played the entire 130 game season, he might be due an injury-free year where he gets 155 GP (ala Wil Myers in 2016-17)

 

While a small sample of less than 100 ABs, he did improve significantly vs LHPs in '17 (115 wRC+ vs 60 & 35 wRC+ in '15-'16)

 

 

Possible things to watch for in spring:

 

Where Mattingly hits him

 

Any swing adjustments to produce +8-10% in flyballs, ala '17 Wil Myers

 

 

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I owned Bour last year in both of my leagues until he got hurt, and I really like the guy. I'm personally hoping he can be a "sleeper" for me...somebody other owners discount because of injuries last year and the stripping of that roster. I'm optimistically hoping for .260-65-30-90. There will be virtually nobody to drive him in unless Brinson has a great season. Even then, there's no one behind Brinson. There won't be much to drive in, and if he hits 3rd instead of 4th, I think his runs may increase a tick and his RBI drop a tick. Personally, I feel he'll hit 4th whether they trade Realmuto or not. If they trade Realmuto, I wouldn't be surprised to see the top 4 be Prado, Castro, Brinson, and Bour. If they don't trade Realmuto, I think it'll be Realmuto, Prado, Castro, Bour, and then Brinson. I could be wrong, but that's jmho. 

 

I like Bour, and I think he'll be undervalued this year. But I'm not going to go crazy hoping for 100+ RBI because I just don't now how many baserunners there will be for him to drive in. 

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12 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:

I like Bour, and I think he'll be undervalued this year. But I'm not going to go crazy hoping for 100+ RBI because I just don't now how many baserunners there will be for him to drive in. 

 

I completely agree with the undervalued part. His ADP is 194 currently. There is a lot wrong with him. He pulls everything, rolls over to many pitches, and is injury prone. With that said, if he can stay somewhat healthy, .260 60/30/80 is still great value at that ADP.

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Don't believe I have ever been in a league where he has been drafted. Usually, end up with him a couple of months into the season and play him till he gets injured. When healthy has provided great value in larger leagues (12+ teams).

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1 hour ago, Low and Away said:

Don't believe I have ever been in a league where he has been drafted. Usually, end up with him a couple of months into the season and play him till he gets injured. When healthy has provided great value in larger leagues (12+ teams).

 

I took a chance on him in a draft last year. My final two picks were Bout and Bellinger. I think he'll be pretty valuable in 12-teamers that use a CI...if healthy. 

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Bour was drafted in my league last year and then dropped. Then I picked him up when l had to put Freeman on the DL. Bour stepped in and produced big time for me and gave me close to Freddie’s value. If Bour can stay healthy he would be a great UTIL player in most fantasy leagues.

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$1 Keeper....I'm all in.  I love Bour this year, but cautiously.  I wish he had more "perceived" lineup protection but I love that he'll be batting 3 or 4 this year.  

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Bour is capable of beast mode. He hasn't shown consistency or health yet, but you have to respect the possibility of beast mode that resides within.

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On 2/13/2018 at 5:55 PM, Low and Away said:

Don't believe I have ever been in a league where he has been drafted. Usually, end up with him a couple of months into the season and play him till he gets injured. When healthy has provided great value in larger leagues (12+ teams).

 

Drafted Bruce late and Bour even later to fill 1B. 

 

With everyone hitting home runs now I guess these kinds of guys are falling in drafts. 

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hes got a ton of upside given his ADP, however his ST has been a real drag. i know we should take ST results with a grain of salt, but anything we should be concerned with here? 

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5 hours ago, sharpee said:

hes got a ton of upside given his ADP, however his ST has been a real drag. i know we should take ST results with a grain of salt, but anything we should be concerned with here? 

 

His career avg in spring training games is .181 with 2 HR.

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Just now, Sine_cera said:

 

His career avg in spring training games is .181 with 2 HR.

 

well that's certainly encouraging lol. let's hope he opens the season off strong!

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7 hours ago, sharpee said:

hes got a ton of upside given his ADP, however his ST has been a real drag. i know we should take ST results with a grain of salt, but anything we should be concerned with here? 

Spring training stats mean NOTHING.  In fact players that get off to a slow start and do nothing in April means nothing to me.  If come June and still not hitting then become concerned.  Always remember baseball is a marathon not a sprint.  The best of players go through slumps might be early in the season might be later in the season.  Stay patient. 

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Under the radar bc Marlins, but dude is a baller. Plus if he does well he is going to a contender for sure. Nothing but upside here. 

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Posted (edited)
On 3/27/2018 at 2:09 AM, sharpee said:

hes got a ton of upside given his ADP, however his ST has been a real drag. i know we should take ST results with a grain of salt, but anything we should be concerned with here? 

 

Also, last year it carried over into April. On April 29 he was hitting .194 with 3 HR and 9 RBIs. If you dropped him by then (as I did) you missed out on 12 HRs and 27 RBIs over his next 115 ABs and a batting average over .300 for three of his four remaining months. I'm not going to make that same mistake again this year.

 

Maybe he's just another cold-starting, patience-testing Edwin Encarnacion-type?

Edited by Caelum
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Posted (edited)

is there a reason for Bour being this bad?

he only has 19.4 K%, along with 8.3 BB%.

he does have .231 BABIP, but he also has 11.1 hard hit%, with 38.5 soft hit%.

 

 

 

.

Edited by SpecialFNK

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I think @Caelum said it all in his post above - Bour was a slow starter last year before heating up, so it's quite possible that's just who he's going to be.  Current Hard% / Soft% is somewhat alarming, but we're also still dealing with too small of a sample size to really make any valuable insights.

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23 minutes ago, SpecialFNK said:

is there a reason for Bour being this bad?

he only has 19.4 K%, along with 8.3 BB%.

he does have .231 BABIP, but he also has 11.1 hard hit%, with 38.5 soft hit%.

 

 

 

.

 

I've watched some AB's for sure...and he's not putting good wood on the ball at all.  Good news is, I think he's a quarter inch off from roping the ball...bad news, a quarter inch at this level is a mile to you and me.

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Oof. On my bench. Nice to see signs of life though. Especially against deGrom

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6/21 4/3/6 .286 1.089 in the last week.

 

Those runs won't be there but the power will. Thinking something like 60/32/71 hitting around .280 for this guy. Hope Realmuto can get on base for him upon return from the DL.

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1 minute ago, Stein said:

6/21 4/3/6 .286 1.089 in the last week.

 

Those runs won't be there but the power will. Thinking something like 60/32/71 hitting around .280 for this guy. Hope Realmuto can get on base for him upon return from the DL.

Castro and Realmuto are solid 2-3 hitters. Castro was an all-star last year and JT is a borderline guy. It’s whats after Bour that stinks so more RBI’s less runs. 80 RBI’s 65 runs scored maybe 

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Benched for Miguel Rojas vs a righty? 

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