Under500Forever

Nolan Arenado 2018 Outlook

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I searched his name but only came across the 2017 Outlook thread. I’m Surprised one hasn’t been started yet but I could have missed it. 

Arenado is money every year and I assume we can expect another top 5 fantasy season with 40 homers/130RBI/100 runs.

 

 

Edited by Under500Forever

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Arenado is money every year but I wanted to see what some dynasty league owners think about his contract with the Rockies. I was reading up on dynasty league rankings and one site said if Arenado doesn’t sign an extension with the Rockies he would go from elite to good very quickly. I just acquired Arenado in my dynasty league mid season of last year so reading this does worry me a bit. I’m not sure of his home/away splits but we all know Coors is a great place to hit. 

 

money will not be the deciding factor when it comes time for Arenado to make a decision.

“The opportunity to play in October every year is what I want,” he said in a phone interview. “I want a team that tries as hard as it can to make the playoffs every year.”

Asked if he saw the Rockies evolving into that kind of franchise, Arenado said, “I think so. I mean, obviously we are in a tough division when it comes to the Dodgers and the Giants. And the Diamondbacks are good, too. But I think the future is much brighter in Colorado than it’s been in the past. That excites me and makes me very aware of what’s going on here.”

 

That said, Arenado stressed that he does not want his career to play out as Todd Helton’s did. Helton played in Colorado for 17 seasons, became the beloved face of the franchise, had his number retired and might end up in the Hall of Fame. But Helton’s Rockies qualified for the playoff just twice, in 2007 and 2009. Arenado wants more.

There is something to be said for being with an organization for your whole career, I definitely believe in that,” Arenado said. “I admired Todd and I admired (Yankees icon) Derek Jeter; guys who stick with one team their whole career. So I have a lot of respect for what Todd did. But at the end of the day, I don’t want to be in Todd’s shoes where I only go to the playoffs twice in my career.”

Edited by Under500Forever

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Arenado is a fantastic player. What I like most about him is his K% in relation to his power. His highest K% in any season was 16.5% in 2015. He's a lock for a .290+ average, 35+ HR, 100+ runs, 120+ RBI, and 2-5 stolen bases. I would like to see him walk a bit more, but 9-10% is respectable. For me, he should be the 4th player off the board, behind Trout, Altuve, and Goldy.

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This guy who owns Nolan in my league last year going for it traded his first 4 picks in a 10 team league with 3 keepers..... I am wondering how far I should extend myself with picks to try and get this guy

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7 hours ago, XxxOilOverloadxxX said:

This guy who owns Nolan in my league last year going for it traded his first 4 picks in a 10 team league with 3 keepers..... I am wondering how far I should extend myself with picks to try and get this guy

 

did you see the second post? I know its 2 years away but as a guy that just traded for Arenado about 6-7 months ago I'm a little worried he may not be with the Rockies in 2020. He seems to like Colorado but said he wants to play for a club that will make the playoffs most years. He used Todd Helton as a reference saying he respects Helton but doesn't want to play 17 years for the same ball club and only make the playoffs twice. I just wonder if his production could take a dip if he played somewhere else. 

Maybe i'm thinking to far ahead but its something to consider if your acquiring him. One site said he would go from elite to good very quickly. 

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Regarding his future in Colorado, I think they'll sign him long term. He's their franchise player and they don't have much money tied up in 2020 and beyond.

 

They'll probably let Blackmon walk though.

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11 hours ago, XxxOilOverloadxxX said:

This guy who owns Nolan in my league last year going for it traded his first 4 picks in a 10 team league with 3 keepers..... I am wondering how far I should extend myself with picks to try and get this guy

He's automatic. I've had him since he was a rookie. I've won the title two out of the last three years in a twelve teamer for what that's worth. 

 

He's been a large part of my operation. If the guy is weak on picks, this is likely your only chance to swing a deal. 

 

Make an offer that's just off the fringe of insulting and see how desperate he is. Have a young player you an include that will give him someone to cheer for. Picks are numbers, assets have names. 

 

GL 

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Traded him away the year before he became a stud.  I'd be a two time champ instead of just a one time champ had I not done that trade. 

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24 minutes ago, jdbob11 said:

Traded him away the year before he became a stud.  I'd be a two time champ instead of just a one time champ had I not done that trade. 

I kept Will Middlebrooks over him in 2013 AND signed him to a 5 year deal...Sigh

 

With the humidor he's the consensus number 3 pick imo

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22 hours ago, Under500Forever said:

 

did you see the second post? I know its 2 years away but as a guy that just traded for Arenado about 6-7 months ago I'm a little worried he may not be with the Rockies in 2020. He seems to like Colorado but said he wants to play for a club that will make the playoffs most years. He used Todd Helton as a reference saying he respects Helton but doesn't want to play 17 years for the same ball club and only make the playoffs twice. I just wonder if his production could take a dip if he played somewhere else. 

Maybe i'm thinking to far ahead but its something to consider if your acquiring him. One site said he would go from elite to good very quickly. 

 

Elite to good is a stretch. Coors obviously helps every hitter so there is no denying it would not have a positive effect not having that as your home park. Last year he hit 19 HR at home and 18 HR away. In 2015, he hit 20 HR at home and 22 HR away. I left out 2016 on purpose because he was it ruins my point with 25 HR home vs 16 HR away. The idea is, the power splits show the power translates everywhere. His batting average would take the biggest hit, he may become a .280 hitter with 40HR hitting for a contender which means massive counting stats. That to me is still 1st round talent!

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22 hours ago, Lone Marlins Fan said:

 

Elite to good is a stretch. Coors obviously helps every hitter so there is no denying it would not have a positive effect not having that as your home park. Last year he hit 19 HR at home and 18 HR away. In 2015, he hit 20 HR at home and 22 HR away. I left out 2016 on purpose because he was it ruins my point with 25 HR home vs 16 HR away. The idea is, the power splits show the power translates everywhere. His batting average would take the biggest hit, he may become a .280 hitter with 40HR hitting for a contender which means massive counting stats. That to me is still 1st round talent!

 

Maybe I’m reading to much into it. As a dynasty owner, my heart sank when I read that. 

Elite ———>good is a stretch but it was tough to think about 

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Not much talk so far this year on Arenado. Guess there's not much to say. Top 3 player with a projection of 40 HRs 130 RBIs 100 Runs .300 AVG. love this guy and would hesitate taking him 2nd overall over altuve. And he's only 26.

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He's pretty much the consensus #3 pick now. Extremely high floor and obviously a high ceiling. Love me some Arenado. 

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3 minutes ago, Fuzzy_Slippers said:

He's pretty much the consensus #3 pick now. Extremely high floor and obviously a high ceiling. Love me some Arenado. 

Yea that's where he's going in most drafts. I think giving his high floor and very high ceiling like you said, a case could be made that he's the second best fantasy pick in baseball. I mean the guy hasn't hit less than 130 RBIs in 3 seasons. Two of those were 40 hr seasons and he just fell short last year with 37. That's consistency.

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6 hours ago, XxxOilOverloadxxX said:

I feel like he would be a Donaldson/Machado rated player if there was no Coors

 

still a very good player

 

I totally understand what you are saying, but Arenado really is that good.

 

The Coors factor always diminishes how we view their studs.  Charlie Blackmon is absolutely a product of Coors (his splits are comical), Arenado is a better player though.

 

In Arenado's case, he is an absolute stud wherever you put him.  You can take his road splits from last year and double them, and he would have outproduced both Donaldson and Machado last season.

 

Arenado on the road last year:  In 311 AB  he put up a line of  .283-18-37-54-3.    I'm not sure much changes if he is at .283-36-74-108-6.  Those numbers look awfully close to Kris Bryant, who is just going a few spots later than Arenado in current drafts.

 

For some guys, Coors is a factor.  Arenado is just that good though.  If you put him in Camden, like Machado, he'd be hitting more homers.  Coors inflates average big time, but isn't the homer park that Camden Yards is.  So stadium factors also help inflate Machado as well.

 

Also, those guys are very good players.  I'm just pointing out that Arenado isn't as Coors fueled as other Rockies have been in the past.  Also, he's an absolute stud on defense.  I think he's clearly the best third baseman in the game and it isn't close.

 

Either way, he is still in Coors, which means those extra 30-40 runs and RBI and that extra 20 point boost in average is all that much better!

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6 hours ago, The Czar said:

 

I totally understand what you are saying, but Arenado really is that good.

 

The Coors factor always diminishes how we view their studs.  Charlie Blackmon is absolutely a product of Coors (his splits are comical), Arenado is a better player though.

 

In Arenado's case, he is an absolute stud wherever you put him.  You can take his road splits from last year and double them, and he would have outproduced both Donaldson and Machado last season.

 

Arenado on the road last year:  In 311 AB  he put up a line of  .283-18-37-54-3.    I'm not sure much changes if he is at .283-36-74-108-6.  Those numbers look awfully close to Kris Bryant, who is just going a few spots later than Arenado in current drafts.

 

For some guys, Coors is a factor.  Arenado is just that good though.  If you put him in Camden, like Machado, he'd be hitting more homers.  Coors inflates average big time, but isn't the homer park that Camden Yards is.  So stadium factors also help inflate Machado as well.

 

Also, those guys are very good players.  I'm just pointing out that Arenado isn't as Coors fueled as other Rockies have been in the past.  Also, he's an absolute stud on defense.  I think he's clearly the best third baseman in the game and it isn't close.

 

Either way, he is still in Coors, which means those extra 30-40 runs and RBI and that extra 20 point boost in average is all that much better!

i got no problem taking arenado at #2 lol

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Love Arenado. Love the floor, love the consistency, love the RBI difference-making.

 

But I'd take Trout, Altuve and Turner over him, with Correa and Blackmon coin tosses depending on what you want.

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2 hours ago, RotoGenius said:

Love Arenado. Love the floor, love the consistency, love the RBI difference-making.

 

But I'd take Trout, Altuve and Turner over him, with Correa and Blackmon coin tosses depending on what you want.

mainly points leagues for me 

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One thing that has never made sense to me....

 

COL seems to land in the Top-5/10 every season when it comes to Team Offense...And I feel like its been that way for the past 10 seasons.

 

But Colorado NEVER, and i mean, NEVER, trades for a good arm or brings in a nice FA. Seriously if they brought in someone (im just spit balling here), but someone like Lance Lynn, and say Jake Arrietta, guaranteed, they'd probably win at least 10 more games in a season.

 

The last "great" pitcher COL has had....was Ubaldo Jimenez, during his 19-8 season...And thats bad....

 

If COL is smart, they'll make a move to get someone. Adding Wade Davis is a great start. Now find a couple nice middle-tier SPs.

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3 hours ago, RotoGenius said:

Love Arenado. Love the floor, love the consistency, love the RBI difference-making.

 

But I'd take Trout, Altuve and Turner over him, with Correa and Blackmon coin tosses depending on what you want.

no chance im taking correa over arenado....the other 4....ya i am.  there is an argument for goldschmidt too.

 

so i have arenado 5th or 6th

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Posted (edited)
On 2/15/2018 at 9:51 AM, Magoo said:

I kept Will Middlebrooks over him in 2013 AND signed him to a 5 year deal...Sigh

With the humidor he's the consensus number 3 pick imo

 

Totally understandable. I was super confident Middlebrooks would be a .275 - 35+ homer guy. Sort of Arenado Lite to be honest.  Totally wrong on that one... no way around it. I wonder what went wrong with him... a guy with skills that loud who can't cut it, makes  you wonder about off-field issues. 

 

On 3/1/2018 at 6:22 AM, XxxOilOverloadxxX said:

I feel like he would be a Donaldson/Machado rated player if there was no Coors

still a very good player

 

I agree to some extent, but to Fuzzy's point, his contact ability (and strikeout infrequency) in addition to the elite power make him pretty special. I think Machado has more true upside though... his raw talent is nearly unrivaled. 

 

Adam Aizer recently tweeted about Arenado's beastly > 1.200 OPS with runners in scoring position. I could see Arenado changing franchises, then having his RISP numbers fall back to earth, then everyone saying "see! he only had 112 RBI this year, he was a Coors product!"  

Edited by ChicksDigTheOPS

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7 hours ago, CORTEz said:

One thing that has never made sense to me....

 

COL seems to land in the Top-5/10 every season when it comes to Team Offense...And I feel like its been that way for the past 10 seasons.

 

But Colorado NEVER, and i mean, NEVER, trades for a good arm or brings in a nice FA. Seriously if they brought in someone (im just spit balling here), but someone like Lance Lynn, and say Jake Arrietta, guaranteed, they'd probably win at least 10 more games in a season.

 

The last "great" pitcher COL has had....was Ubaldo Jimenez, during his 19-8 season...And thats bad....

 

If COL is smart, they'll make a move to get someone. Adding Wade Davis is a great start. Now find a couple nice middle-tier SPs.

I think Davis is going to get destroyed in Colorado

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Posted (edited)
On 2/14/2018 at 3:09 AM, Fuzzy_Slippers said:

Arenado is a fantastic player. What I like most about him is his K% in relation to his power. His highest K% in any season was 16.5% in 2015. He's a lock for a .290+ average, 35+ HR, 100+ runs, 120+ RBI, and 2-5 stolen bases. I would like to see him walk a bit more, but 9-10% is respectable. For me, he should be the 4th player off the board, behind Trout, Altuve, and Goldy.

 

do you have him ranked 3 now? lot of people talking blackmon there

Edited by floppy

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10 minutes ago, floppy said:

 

do you have him ranked 3 now? lot of people talking blackmon there

He's #3 and Blackmon is #4, for me. 

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