Gotham_Soldier

Ender Inciarte 2018 Outlook

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On 6/1/2018 at 9:29 PM, KJ12345 said:

Im pretty sure that shoulder is hurt.  Hes making ZERO hard contact. 

 

Could be right. he's been an absolute zero since crashing hard into the wall on May 20

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Getting a little impatient here. His average is down to .247 and he's not someone who can be all that valuable with that kind of average. He's hit between .291 and .304 the last three years and that's around where the average needs to be for him to be returning solid value.

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I've still be starting as I've been hoping to get a few steals form him, also had some OF injuries so it's been easier to start him. Not going to be starting this coming week however until we see some life from him. It's been an up and down couple months and this last week he basically did nothing. Wouldn't be so bad if he was still hitting a bit and scoring some runs. If you can afford to hold him it's probably a good idea though. For someone who typically hits around .300 and could be a top three or so SB threat this season, I wouldn't give up on him. Just demote to the bench if you have a better option and cross your fingers he gets going soon. I had really hoped being back in lead off with Acuna out, would of got him back on track but who knows what this week brings. Some here think he's dealing with a nagging injury but who knows. 

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His BABIP is about 60 points below his career average. That could be bad luck, or it could be a change in approach. His fly ball rate is up and the percentage of balls that he pulls is much higher than it has been in the past. Everything else in his batting profile looks normal and he's on a pace to match last year's totals in XBH and homers, but his singles are way down.

 

If I watched him often I'd have a better idea if this is true, but the above leads me to suspect that he's trying to hit for more power and it's not really working. In 2017 he had over 700 plate appearances but only hit 11 HRs, so his power potential is almost zero. I can see why he'd want to change that, but if he really doesn't have the strength or bat speed to drive the ball for distance, all he's doing is artificially decreasing his singles production and increasing the number of fly outs. If that is what's happening you can hope that cooler heads will prevail and they'll instruct him to focus on contact rather than power.

 

The good news is that he's running a lot. He's getting caught more than last year, but that'll happen when you're accepting more risky attempts. Overall, he might his a few extra HRs if he keeps trying, and but his BA should improve to the .270 range, and he might reach 30 SBs (albeit with more outs on the basepaths). 15/30 .270 guys have value, especially if you don't have one of the elite speed guys, so he's probably worth a hold.

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Since May 20 wall collision

18 games, 4 runs, 3 rbi, 0 hr, ZERO SB, .171 ba, .475 OPS

 

abominable

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I've been bullish holding him, as a player typically hitting for high average and this year burning the base paths earlier. Its getting hard in my small league to keep holding, especially with other guys sitting in FAs like Jose Martinez on fire and SPs which I really need. 

 

Just hard dropping knowing the potential, and I feel the moment I drop he'll heat up, possibly for another owner. Even if/when he starts hitting again, he might not steal at the pace he had earlier. With the caught stealing he's had last three attempts, the SBs might dry up and be much less frequent. He surely is on pace to break his past seasons best for SBs, which would still be great if he was hitting at all right now however.

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Ender has been a black hole in the lineup for like a month now.  I think in anything smaller than 15 teamers it's safe to move on.  

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Except for the early burst of steals this guy has been a complete zero.  .290 career hitter is the main reason he was drafted.  Are there any positive signs he's gonna be anywhere close to that by end of season?  Seems more likely to end up .230 than .290.  At least he's up there in runs, but who wants a one-category guy --  he's not even stealing bases at any significant rate anymore.

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10 minutes ago, Heisenberg90 said:

He hasn't stolen a base since the 4th of July.

You can't steal first base.

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1 hour ago, Charlesco said:

.280 AVG during last month, not bad. But 0 stolen bases, why he stop running?

Possibly because he's batting down in the lineup? If he keeps hitting, they'll have to move him up in the lineup and maybe the SB opps will increase. 

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Have a chance to trade this guy, but I could really use the SB.  Thoughts on why he isn't stealing and if he will start any time soon.

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