ryno1980

Nick Pivetta 2018 Outlook

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Some of you guys should check out fangraphs. There’s much better ways to evaluate pitchers than ERA and how they pitched today. There’s even a glossary to tell you what the stats mean. 

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5 minutes ago, mavsfan23 said:

Some of you guys should check out fangraphs. There’s much better ways to evaluate pitchers than ERA and how they pitched today. There’s even a glossary to tell you what the stats mean. 

  Will Fangraphs tell me how many wins a guy has ?

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Posted (edited)

Pitcher list has Pivetta at  27 which to me is too high. We must remember the rankings have a lot to do with the rest of the season schedule.

 

Pivetta pitched well yesterday until the 5th. The solo blast by Rizzo was not a bad pitch. The pitch tailed back towards the middle but was still on the inner third. He didn't get it inside enough and Rizzo turned on it? Rizzo didn't miss it.

 

Pivetta started the fifth inning with a throwing error on a swinging bunt. Then the cardinal sin he walked the pitcher.

 

There's definitely room for improvement. In a 12-team I would vote he's a definite hold.

Edited by weakkneeswilly
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 I'm stunned at the negativity in the thread. 

 

10th best FIP in baseball at 2.95

18th best SIERA at 3.33

8th best Hard Contact allowed 27.5%

11.2% Swinging Strikes

Strikes out 10.2 per 9, walks only 2.4 per 9 with 3.76 ERA, 1.16 WHIP

 

For a 25 year old breakout you can't ask for much more, ERA is up a little due to most recent start but it will come back down.

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3 hours ago, weakkneeswilly said:

Pitcher list has Pivetta at  27 which to me is too high. We must remember the rankings have a lot to do with the rest of the season schedule.

 

Pivetta pitched well yesterday until the 5th. The solo blast by Rizzo was not a bad pitch. The pitch tailed back towards the middle but was still on the inner third. He didn't get it inside enough and Rizzo turned on it? Rizzo didn't miss it.

 

Pivetta started the fifth inning with a throwing error on a swinging bunt. Then the cardinal sin he walked the pitcher.

 

There's definitely room for improvement. In a 12-team I would vote he's a definite hold.

Rizzo crushes pitches within an inch of hitting him, so, yeah.

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Just now, dkrocka said:

Rizzo crushes pitches within an inch of hitting him, so, yeah.

Rizzo didn't crush anything for the first 6 -7 weeks. Now we see the real Russo. 

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19 hours ago, brockpapersizer said:

  Will Fangraphs tell me how many wins a guy has ?

Strangely, fangraphs does not have quality starts as a stat. You can find a players xzWOBApiOBBQP, but not quality starts.  

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Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, StevieStats said:

 I'm stunned at the negativity in the thread. 

 

10th best FIP in baseball at 2.95

18th best SIERA at 3.33

8th best Hard Contact allowed 27.5%

11.2% Swinging Strikes

Strikes out 10.2 per 9, walks only 2.4 per 9 with 3.76 ERA, 1.16 WHIP

 

For a 25 year old breakout you can't ask for much more, ERA is up a little due to most recent start but it will come back down.

 

 

It's the splits. Sucks away and worse vs LHBs, coupled with his age = inconsistency and streaming potential. Unless you have room and setup (ie max ip) to mix and match, in which case I don't mind holding. Personally, I dropped him a while back in my 10-teamer due to too many injuries and bad upcoming matchups

Edited by Arch

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[ The game day thread is open for all of your venting about your ratios and other assorted hot takes resulting from the current game.  Pretty much everyone who's posting in here has been around long enough to know that we don't allow game day chatter in outlook threads.  Do better, guys. ]

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Well...that was ugly. 

 

His last three starts are making me think back to last year...14 innings, 13 ER, 26 baserunners, 7 walks, 2 HR. 

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Posted (edited)

Bench at best....can be a drop.  His next few starts are against some solid bats.

 

Home vs cards

@ nats

Home vs yanks

Home vs nats

 

No way im starting him vs any of these.  So whats the point?

 

Edited by Elviplatinum
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Streamable until he gets back on track

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12 minutes ago, pbjfb said:

Streamable until he gets back on track

Streamable against who, AA squads?

He just gave 6 ER, 8 hits, and 3 walks over 5 innings to the team with the worst wRC+ on baseball.

 

If you can't safely start Pivetta at home against the Rockies, you can't really start stream him against anyone.

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8 minutes ago, cs3 said:

Streamable against who, AA squads?

He just gave 6 ER, 8 hits, and 3 walks over 5 innings to the team with the worst wRC+ on baseball.

 

If you can't safely start Pivetta at home against the Rockies, you can't really start stream him against anyone.

Next matchup vs STL

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55 minutes ago, Elviplatinum said:

Bench at best....can be a drop.  His next few starts are against some solid bats.

 

Home vs cards

@ nats

Home vs yanks

Home vs nats

 

No way im starting him vs any of these.  So whats the point?

 

I saw and concluded the same. Waste of a bench spot for a month, though I'd keep him on my watch list throughout. 

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10 hours ago, Flyman75 said:

Well...that was ugly. 

 

His last three starts are making me think back to last year...14 innings, 13 ER, 26 baserunners, 7 walks, 2 HR. 

Yes it was....

I see Nick as just another average starting pitcher .

15 starts -- 6 have gone good 6 have been bad

 

Nick gets a lot of love because he has strikeout potential.

 

9 hours ago, Elviplatinum said:

Bench at best....can be a drop.  His next few starts are against some solid bats.

 

Home vs cards

@ nats

Home vs yanks

Home vs nats

 

No way im starting him vs any of these.  So whats the point?

 

drop city ... depends on league size/makeup ... stream a pitcher hope Nick is available again if not

 

let somebody else have his inconsistency

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9 hours ago, Elviplatinum said:

Bench at best....can be a drop.  His next few starts are against some solid bats.

 

Home vs cards

@ nats

Home vs yanks

Home vs nats

 

No way im starting him vs any of these.  So whats the point?

 

STL doesn't scare me all that much being 21st in runs scored on the season & thus far in June. NYY is a different story but WAS is right there with STL and actually worse in many stats. In 10 June games, their team batting avg is just .210 with a .310 slugging. 

 

On the season as a whole, the Nats team has scored just one more run than STL (20th in MLB) and are 23rd of 30 in total bases. Washington has Bryce & I know they've been without Eaton most of the season but overall, their lineup doesn't scare me much more than STL.

 

Seems to me, Pivetta's Home/Away splits are the most glaring -

 

HOME: 8 GS, 3-3 W-L, 46 IP, 55 K, 11 BB, 3.13 ERA, 1.10 WHIP

AWAY: 6 GS, 1-3 W-L, 26 IP, 26 K, 10 BB, 6.23 ERA, 1.46 WHIP

 

He also seems to struggle against lineups with a lot of left-handed bats which i believe has been mentioned in this thread already. WAS does have a ton of LH bats so that may be something to think about. But the Cardinals are almost exclusively right-handed lineup....them at home, Pivetta should be a solid start IMHO.

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3 rough outings in a row... going to be tough to justify starting him. 

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He is money in fip and xfip leagues. Drop everywhere else

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Posted (edited)

                   ERA      Whip       OBA       HRA           

6/13 Col 10.80            2.20             .440               1
6/7 @ChC 7.20 1.40 .318 1
6/1 @SF 6.75 2.00 .429 0
5/27 Tor 3.60 1.20 .316 0

  

3 - 5 inning games and 1 he lasted 4 innings 

 

I'm jumping off. 

Edited by weakkneeswilly

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I will happily be picking him up after all you overreactors cut bait.  I'm buying the underlying metrics.  Lots of good starters (double so for younger ones) have rough stretches.

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Oh man @weakkneeswilly is out? Ouch. I'll definitely hold for a bit longer. Rockies have seemed very happy to be playing their 'home away from home'. Really hoping he can turn it around because the Phills needs him to get some wins. It does hurt to see him cruise and then run into 4-5ER. 

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Too many hitters reach base off Pivetta . He always seems to be pitching from the stretch. He K'ed 5 batters in a row last night all from the windup. Good luck with him. 

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