ryno1980

Nick Pivetta 2018 Outlook

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Solid 2 starts. He certainly has the stuff to be a Top 50 SP this year and only grow from there. 

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Get in while you can, the breakout is coming. Only 2 walks on the year and none in the last 2 starts.

Stuff is legit. 

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I need to wait until he doesn't start against MIA or CIN and see how it goes 

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10 minutes ago, evillaw4eva said:

I need to wait until he doesn't start against MIA or CIN and see how it goes 

 

He's going to start getting picked up widely in a lot of leagues. 

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I like that he also had 8 ground balls to 2 fly ball outs.  Picked him up for the week and he gets 2 starts next week.  Plan on keeping him and watching him continue to breakout.

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Awesome. Started him this week in one league I felt he was my best option out of all the 1 starters.  Very good to see.

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Posted (edited)

I got on board after his 2nd start, threw him last night and very happy with the result. I liked him when he came up last year, he's got talent. 

 

It's a very small sample, and this isn't really usable but more of a fun fact, but he's got the best FIP in the league at the moment. 

 

Hoping he's for real,  but if he's available in your league still he'll be gone shortly if he's not already.

Edited by StevieStats

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Posted (edited)

I'd like to see more of his starts myself but has anyone seen what he's throwing much? Brooks has him as just throwing a FA/CUrve in the first start but throwing FA/CU/Slider in the 2nd and 3rd primarily. 

 

Early returns on that primary curveball are pretty spectacular: 

 

26.01% Usage%

15.49% Whiff%

77.78% GB%

 

He also has gotten great Groundballs on that Slider (and great overall results)

 

14.29% Usage%

20.51% Whiff%

71.43% GB%

 

Now obviously these are early returns, but what I REALLY love about this is that he throws a high Velo, pretty strong rising Fastball.

 

What this might mean is that, to me, Pivetta may be the kind of guy who can really induce a GB when he needs to and has different pitches for different planes. Essentially, that 4-Seamer will "reduce" his GB% so-to-speak, as it'll be a high-K, high-PU pitch most likely without a strong GB%, but in double play situations the secondary stuff should be excellent at inducing ground balls based on early returns. 

 

The repertoire does look pretty filthy and really well balanced in terms of velo / movement / gaps / "roles" / etc. 

 

 

Edited by taobball
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For a player that went largely undrafted in most leagues, there's really a lot to like here. He's pretty tall, he throws pretty hard, and even in a sub-par 2017, he still struck out over 9 per 9 innings with a respectable walk rate. Reports are he's really improved his curveball (or really added on in). He already had a good fastball. His control has been better so far in 2018. He's still only 25 (just turned in January). And hell, his FIP is actually lower than his ERA right now. I'd have to think he's a Top 40 pitcher this year with upside, health permitting.

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I'm pretty high on Pavetta after seeing the first three starts as well, but I would caution against extrapolating from a 3-game sample of FIP to say he's anywhere in the top 40 discussion just yet.

 

He probably needs to be owned by someone in anything 12-team or larger, but let's remember how bad he was in a much larger sample last season, and note that his two good outings were against the 26th (CIN) and 28th (MIA) ranked offenses in wRC+ so far, but he got knocked around and chased after only 4 IP against the 7th ranked offense (ATL.)

 

Buy in if you have a spot open and need some K upside, but tread lightly, as he gets the Braves again for his next start.

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Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, tonycpsu said:

I'm pretty high on Pavetta after seeing the first three starts as well, but I would caution against extrapolating from a 3-game sample of FIP to say he's anywhere in the top 40 discussion just yet.

 

He probably needs to be owned by someone in anything 12-team or larger, but let's remember how bad he was in a much larger sample last season, and note that his two good outings were against the 26th (CIN) and 28th (MIA) ranked offenses in wRC+ so far, but he got knocked around and chased after only 4 IP against the 7th ranked offense (ATL.)

 

Buy in if you have a spot open and need some K upside, but tread lightly, as he gets the Braves again for his next start.

 

Yeah I think that's my main point here too. There's some guys you could rank equally but say "These are the guys you can let sit on the Wire, but would want to pick up occasionally," and "These are the guys that are less certain, but you want to have them on your roster because if things break right, the other owner won't be likely to part or just return them to the wire, even if you're not starting them right away." 

 

Pivetta is pretty clear-cut a guy you want on your roster (specifics obviously could change situations) in-case it's legitimate, but I also wouldn't strongly advocate playing him right now against tough match-ups. But the early returns are super promising. 

Edited by taobball
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Posted (edited)

Definitely needs to be rostered in 12+ team leagues. He threw 165 total innings in 2017, so 175+ innings seems entirely possible.

Edited by Fuzzy_Slippers
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Posted (edited)

Pitches tonight and wishing him luck. If you're a BIG metrics guy Pivetta is golden,  though we're still very early into the season.

Edited by Z06vette

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Anyone watch him pitch? Thinking about using his spot to stream, think he will be alittle to up and down to roster full time.

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1 minute ago, wahoos1 said:

Anyone watch him pitch? Thinking about using his spot to stream, think he will be alittle to up and down to roster full time.

hold on one more start 

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4 minutes ago, cdd10 said:

hold on one more start 

 

You made it sound like he had a bad start.

 

Sure 5 innings wasn't ideal, and the K's weren't there like they have been, but 5 hits, 1 run and 0 walk are still very good numbers. All in all it was a solid outing against what has so far been a very good offense. The underlying metrics seem to support his hot start as well.

 

Pivetta is looking more and more like one to hold. No way would I use his spot to stream unless I was in an 8 team league.

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Posted (edited)

I watched him. FB looked sharp but didnt quite have the feel for his off-speed stuff. Was only in trouble the first inning.After a 30 pitch 1st inning (due in part to a booted DP ball) he wasn't going very deep. Nothing said "sell" to me. 

Edited by rrrrich46
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16 minutes ago, wahoos1 said:

Anyone watch him pitch? Thinking about using his spot to stream, think he will be alittle to up and down to roster full time.

Why would you bail? He's been very solid so far and it's not like he got rocked. Sure it was kinda blah, but didn't really hurt ya. Atlanta is surprisingly one of the best offenses in the bigs right now. 

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John Smoltz once said on a fangraphs podcast (obvious paraphrase) that in a season you only have your best stuff 1/3 of the time. 1/3 of the time nothing works and 1/3 of the time only a couple things are going for you. How you survive the outings where nothing or only one thing is working is a lot of what determines how good your season will be. 

 

 

Pivetta didnt have his best stuff tonight. Got through it alright though. 

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12 minutes ago, taobball said:

John Smoltz once said on a fangraphs podcast (obvious paraphrase) that in a season you only have your best stuff 1/3 of the time. 1/3 of the time nothing works and 1/3 of the time only a couple things are going for you. How you survive the outings where nothing or only one thing is working is a lot of what determines how good your season will be. 

 

 

Pivetta didnt have his best stuff tonight. Got through it alright though. 

Love Smoltz's insights. 

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What I saw was a ~30 pitch inning because the manager had the SS playing 2B and he blew an inning ending double play.Then in his last inning or so,Franco bounced a throw to first that should have been an out and caused a jam.Buy low.

 

 Get the infield straightened out and he'll be fine.

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