ryno1980

Nick Pivetta 2018 Outlook

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1 hour ago, Stallion said:

 

You made it sound like he had a bad start.

 

Sure 5 innings wasn't ideal, and the K's weren't there like they have been, but 5 hits, 1 run and 0 walk are still very good numbers. All in all it was a solid outing against what has so far been a very good offense. The underlying metrics seem to support his hot start as well.

 

Pivetta is looking more and more like one to hold. No way would I use his spot to stream unless I was in an 8 team league.

nope, i didn't. the dude said he was thinking about using his spot as a stream spot, i said hold on one more start...

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Considering his first start in Hot-lanta, this one was night and day.  0 walks are the take away for me from this one.

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1 hour ago, cdd10 said:

nope, i didn't. the dude said he was thinking about using his spot as a stream spot, i said hold on one more start...

 

1 more start sounds like you're implying that he's got a short leash though, like it was his last chance or something.

 

Anyway, is he slated for a 2 start week?

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1 minute ago, Stallion said:

 

1 more start sounds like you're implying that he's got a short leash though, like it was his last chance or something.

 

Anyway, is he slated for a 2 start week?

well in regards to the OP i was replying to it made sense. 

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6 hours ago, mmcc1029 said:

Why would you bail? He's been very solid so far and it's not like he got rocked. Sure it was kinda blah, but didn't really hurt ya. Atlanta is surprisingly one of the best offenses in the bigs right now. 

Good point, I think his line was fine. I’m just limited for roster spots, with some under performing hitters, I think he lines up to pitch Sunday v. Pittsburgh so he deserves another start. 

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8 hours ago, the real donny baseball said:

What I saw was a ~30 pitch inning because the manager had the SS playing 2B and he blew an inning ending double play.Then in his last inning or so,Franco bounced a throw to first that should have been an out and caused a jam.Buy low.

 

 Get the infield straightened out and he'll be fine.

Even with the high-pitch 1st & bad infield D, can we expect him to get pulled right around the 100 pitch mark in all his starts or do y'all think he'll be allowed to go a little longer as it warms up/he gets stretched out as the season progresses? Splitting hairs, but one more inning & he gets a QS....not going to complain tho & definitely not dropping.

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2 minutes ago, wayzupusc said:

Even with the high-pitch 1st & bad infield D, can we expect him to get pulled right around the 100 pitch mark in all his starts or do y'all think he'll be allowed to go a little longer as it warms up/he gets stretched out as the season progresses? Splitting hairs, but one more inning & he gets a QS....not going to complain tho & definitely not dropping.

 

Seems like most pitchers are getting pulled then nowadays 

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Really like this guy. Seems to be making tangible improvements and he also gets to face the Marlins several more times lol

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5 hours ago, wayzupusc said:

Even with the high-pitch 1st & bad infield D, can we expect him to get pulled right around the 100 pitch mark in all his starts or do y'all think he'll be allowed to go a little longer as it warms up/he gets stretched out as the season progresses? Splitting hairs, but one more inning & he gets a QS....not going to complain tho & definitely not dropping.

 

I don't know how the manager is going to act.He seems pretty ANALytic and I think his moves will also be based on that days body chemistry.I'd pay for a Xanax script for him.

 

  However,I'm already committed with Nola,so I'll be keeping an eye on how the staff gets handled going forward.I think Pivetta is worth holding on to if you already liked him.

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6 hours ago, wayzupusc said:

Even with the high-pitch 1st & bad infield D, can we expect him to get pulled right around the 100 pitch mark in all his starts or do y'all think he'll be allowed to go a little longer as it warms up/he gets stretched out as the season progresses? Splitting hairs, but one more inning & he gets a QS....not going to complain tho & definitely not dropping.

I think it's too early to call this,  unless someone has a manager quote I'm  unaware of.  This is the coldest spring i can remember,  he's young.  Every reason to play it safe early.  I think he controls the answer to this question with how well he plays

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Pivetta was saddled with a no decision but was otherwise pretty good on Sunday vs PIT: 6.1 INN, 5 HA, 2 BBI, 7 K, 2 ER.

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1 hour ago, Ace_King said:

What is the ROS expectation for him? SP2 or SP3 in the cards? 

SP3 imo. 

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SP3 sounds a bit aggressive to me.  Right now everything's working, and hitters haven't adjusted to his increased curveball usage.  Meanwhile, his opponents so far own the 15th, 18th, 19th (2x), and 28th best offenses in terms of OPS on the season.

 

I think SP4/5 is more likely, and that'd be a pretty phenomenal outcome for a guy with a 6.02 ERA and 1.51 WHIP last season.  I see him as one of those guys whose K upside will keep you holding him (possibly on your bench) through the 4.0 IP / 4+ ER starts against tougher offenses.

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1 minute ago, tonycpsu said:

SP3 sounds a bit aggressive to me.  Right now everything's working, and hitters haven't adjusted to his increased curveball usage.  Meanwhile, his opponents so far own the 15th, 18th, 19th (2x), and 28th best offenses in terms of OPS on the season.

 

I think SP4/5 is more likely, and that'd be a pretty phenomenal outcome for a guy with a 6.02 ERA and 1.51 WHIP last season.  I see him as one of those guys whose K upside will keep you holding him (possibly on your bench) through the starts against tougher offenses.

 

What tougher offenses is he slated to face soon?

 

Should he not get a heavy dose of the marlins, and other NL offenses that he has been facing thus far? Its not like he will be facing a lot of loaded lineups like red sox or yankees.

 

I dont want to get too excited but his Ks and era and whip have been SP2 worthy in my league so far. If he settles as a SP3 id be elated. The phillies offense and bullpen have the ability to push him to +15 wins and he could possibly break 190 Ks if ERA and WHIP settle under .380 and .140 then id love that for a waiver pickup.

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His peripherals almost universally support his performance level thus far.  If you don’t get in now, you will miss the boat.

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1 minute ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

What tougher offenses is he slated to face soon?

 

This is a fair point, but I don't know why "soon" is coming into play when we're talking about a season-long prediction.  The Phillies have not played the Nationals yet this season, and those games could be very painful.  Pivetta will fortunately miss the D'Backs series, but there are a lot of tougher NL teams on the schedule this season, and the interleague schedule does, in fact, include the Yanks and the Sawx.

 

Look, I believe the kid has tools, but SP3 means at least top 45, and I think he has a lot of guys to leapfrog to make that a reality.  Player rater had him at SP43 before today's game and that will go up, but I wouldn't expect quite this level of success over a full season.  Strength of opponents does matter.

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I will just point out that the Yanks suck against pitchers they’ve never seen, in recent years.  If he continues to show the skills he has displayed thus far, I actually think SP2 is achievable.

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5 minutes ago, BMcP said:

I will just point out that the Yanks suck against pitchers they’ve never seen, in recent years.  If he continues to show the skills he has displayed thus far, I actually think SP2 is achievable.

 

 

"Achievable"?  Sure.  The question was about "expectation" and my point was that "expecting" every guy who shows upside in a small sample to reach SP3 is going to lead to a lot of disappointment.  He has some good tools and the pitch mix changes have led to great results.  I've seen every one of his starts and the fastball movement and command of breaking stuff has taken steps forward.  But I think we should just tap the brakes a bit here on expecting SP3 production when he hasn't faced a single above-average lineup.

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I agree with that.  Let me clarify and say that I, personally, expect an SP3 result but am hoping for SP2.

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I'm buying in. After watching his last 2 starts he looks like a much different pitcher. Better breaking stuff and improved command, and on an up and coming team. 

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19 minutes ago, rrrrich46 said:

I'm buying in. After watching his last 2 starts he looks like a much different pitcher. Better breaking stuff and improved command, and on an up and coming team. 

 

And facing other teams SP3 does not hurt either. Arrieta and Nola usually draw the tougher pitching matchups.

 

Thats why i think pivetta can push for 15+ wins this year

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7 minutes ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

And facing other teams SP3 does not hurt either. Arrieta and Nola usually draw the tougher pitching matchups.

 

Thats why i think pivetta can push for 15+ wins this year

Matchups can play into it, and in a points league (like mine) those W's make a big difference.

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from CBS:

 

Pivetta's hot start can be traced to a number of improvements in his curveball, The Athletic Philadelphia reports.

The curve has improved in just about every way possible. It's now dropping by 10 inches after dropping just 5.7 inches last year. Its horizontal movement is up from 3.3 inches to 6.3 inches. Pivetta's now throwing it at 80 mph after it averaged 77 mph in the first half of 2017. The changes stem from a change in grip after he decided to copy the spiked grip used by teammate Aaron Nola. Pivetta has also quieted his hands during his windup, which has helped not just the curve but also his overall command, and he's now walking just 3.6 percent of the batters he faces. Pivetta's 2.57 ERA seems at first glance easy to dismiss as a small-sample fluke after his 6.02 ERA last year, but changes in the curve seem to be driving a legitimately improved performance from the young righty, and his 2.28 FIP backs up the idea that he's deserved his excellent results.

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