ryno1980

Nick Pivetta 2018 Outlook

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1 hour ago, brockpapersizer said:

With a .48 HR/9 your current qualfied league leader is 27 year old Treavor Bauer

 

Last year at 26 (one year older than Pivetta is now,) he had a 1.28 HR/9

 

In no way am I going to imply Pivetta makes this sort of jump,  I just don't think Pivetta having a 1.29 HR/9 in his second season playing in this year's conditions in Philli is anything to be alarmed about, especially considering its 12% below average.  No guarantee Philli is as extremely HR friendly next year as it was this year. It seems to be extreme right now. 

 

I'd also take Siera over HR/9 if I was evaluating a pitcher off one of those stats only. 

Yeah, I don't think Pivetta will ever make a Bauer-like improvement there, but that HR rate is also very rare.  Bauer might even have a hard time duplicating that next season.  Pivetta just has to make a solid enough improvement and he can become a much more reliable pitcher next season.

 

For this season, if he is available, he makes for an interesting replacement for Bauer owners. Obviously he's not going to produce those great ratios, but I would be happy with decent ratios and that great K rate.

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I have a pretty simple rule...

 

if a player’s (K% - BB%) > 20%... He deserves special notice. Nick Pivetta absolutely deserves everyone's attention. 

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8 hours ago, Random Dude said:

I have a pretty simple rule...

 

if a player’s (K% - BB%) > 20%... He deserves special notice. Nick Pivetta absolutely deserves everyone's attention. 

Yup, my favourite stat for finding guys outside of that top 15-20.

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16 hours ago, Slatykamora said:

That is a mis-leading graph. Since a 24 game rolling data set can't stabilize until it actually reaches 24 games. So you are seeing more volatility has weather related bias in the first part of the graph.

 

I'll give you an example 

2017: June 5th to August 16th 1.70 HR/9 (14 games)

 

2018: May 27th to August 14th 1.61 HR/9 (14 games)

 

Minimal improvements mostly thanks to K% increase. From August 27th until May 4th next year. He would have a 14 game stretch where is HR/9 was only 1.0

 

Thus far his HR tendencies seem more victim to the season than anything he did differently. The K% Spike has helped (as less players to make contact means less chances HRs can be hit) His overall contact management is mostly the same.

 

 

such a valid point regarding the graph presented.

i thought these graphs automatically adjusted and didn't show any data up until the point of stability. oddly enough, when i go back to the exact same graph, it defaults to a 15 game rolling period and doesn't give me the option to adjust the time frame. no idea how i got to where i did..

to your point regarding seasonal differences versus pitcher adjustments: seasonal differences aren't really a thing, they're just arbitrary days off. if there's improvement in home runs allowed, it's more than likely because of one of a handful of things.. pitcher adjustment, ballpark factors (new team, new park, etc.), or potentially the opponent(s) faced if the sample size is small enough on either side . i can't think of much else that would affect the ability to prevent/allow home runs.

what's different between last season and this season? you mention k% spike, but then say it's nothing he did differently. the k% is because he's doing something differently, no? improved pitch quality or the addition of a pitch.

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What he heck is going on with this guy?

 

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8 minutes ago, peelpub94 said:

Mets had 6 runs off 9 singles lol.....

 

Is it just poor BABIP luck this season or is there something more here? 

 

Pivetta shows promise but keeps dissapointing.

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1 hour ago, B&F said:

What he heck is going on with this guy?

 

Some typing and two clicks gets you to the answer.

 

9 singles, all clustered together. It happens. Just random dumb luck.

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This is Pivetta. He’ll be good eventually, but until then he’s gonna stink it up occasionally. Very frustrating to own. 

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14 hours ago, NoHablaIngles said:

 

Is it just poor BABIP luck this season or is there something more here? 

 

Pivetta shows promise but keeps dissapointing.

 

1.09 HR/9 in the second half!!!!

 

One homerless start and its probably down below 1. 

 

Seemed liked a bad babip game. I wouldn't be too worried, but at the same time he's a non elite pitcher, everyone is prone to a bad game or stretch of games. 

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I don't buy into the pitch-tipping theory that Vasgersian, Mendoza, and A-Rod were speculating about during the ESPN broadcast last night, but I do think the straightness of his four-seamer is a problem.  He threw 31 of them last night, getting 17 swings and zero whiffs.  I don't think the secondaries are quite good enough to do the Hill/McCullers/Corbin pitch backwards thing, and he doesn't really have a sinker to speak of, so I'm not sure there's a quick fix here.

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31 minutes ago, tonycpsu said:

I don't buy into the pitch-tipping theory that Vasgersian, Mendoza, and A-Rod were speculating about during the ESPN broadcast last night, but I do think the straightness of his four-seamer is a problem.  He threw 31 of them last night, getting 17 swings and zero whiffs.  I don't think the secondaries are quite good enough to do the Hill/McCullers/Corbin pitch backwards thing, and he doesn't really have a sinker to speak of, so I'm not sure there's a quick fix here.

I noticed that straightness as well seeing him pitch for the first time against Boston other day. I could instantly understand why sometimes he gets a decent hammering. Good velocity but really needs some help from the other team to get themselves out. 

 

I didn't think he looked overly sharp against Boston, they just just weren't hitting some of his mistakes and struggle with decent SPs they haven't faced yet time to time. He's going to need to really improve the rest of his repertoire to take a that next step forward.

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This dude is definitely an enigma. He's 10th in K - BB%, better than guys like Severino, Kluber, Nola, Snell, etc. 

Edited by Fuzzy_Slippers

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About 40% of the time this guy gets lit, like 4-7ER lit.

Shuts down the Redsox, destroyed by Mets and Jays

I didn't watch today, but feels like the great Gabe left him in too long.

 

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18 hours ago, UberRebel said:

Anyone starting him @TOR for a potential bounce back?

 

16 hours ago, Fuzzy_Slippers said:

I'm starting him.

 

Well that was fun!!!!

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He is another Michael Pineda.

 

Advanced metrics are not flawless and don't apply to every pitcher.


 

 

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36 minutes ago, B&F said:

He is another Michael Pineda.

 

Advanced metrics are not flawless and don't apply to every pitcher.


 

 

 

Pineda could be a solid comp.  I thought his upside could be A.J. Burnett.

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I knew I should have started him, regardless of it was the Cubs or not. I know that his metrics really show he's better at home, but I saw this post yesterday on Reddit. While SIERA and FIP and xFIP aren't everything, they are definitely something. And his home/away splits ERA-wise are good enough that I should have started him for the K-upside.

 

I think this guys is going to do really well next season.

 

I believe in Pivetta's talent. He hasn't fully refined it yet, but I'm going to keep rolling with him for the same reason I keep rolling with Fulmer- I have to think he'll find it at some point. I know that's not the most glowing recommendation considering what Fulmer did against KC, but Pivetta has a good shot to do well today largely because he's at home.

Pivetta has a 2.96 FIP at home and a 25.7 K-BB% vs 4.46 and 16.6% on the road.

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35 minutes ago, Dylanfan66 said:

Actually CBS has him listed as a one start pitcher but CBS as two? Anyone know for sure?

Vince Velasquez is scheduled to pitch Monday my guess is he's the only one who gets a 2nd start. Who knows for sure, Kapler could decide otherwise.

Edited by MrBrett
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