ryno1980

Nick Pivetta 2018 Outlook

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4 minutes ago, papasmurf said:

Yeah I was looking him up cuz I am thinking about starting a BAL hitter as a streamer. Dude has big time splits. SHuts down righty hitters.

 

Lefties hitters with low launch angles (line drive and GB types) are the guys that would give him trouble. 

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3 hours ago, Elviplatinum said:

No way jose I'm starting today.  

 

I still remember his 1 inning quality start 2 weeks ago vs a good lineup at home (nats).   Can only imagine what he will do vs a great lineup away....

 

 

 This dude is only a match up play...

 

Uh... great lineup? What herb you smoking cuz. This lineup sucks. 

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Anyone care to run his numbers when disregarding the Washington start? I know that's not how it works but for the sake of it.

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21 hours ago, taobball said:

 

Uh... great lineup? What herb you smoking cuz. This lineup sucks. 

 

I'm not sure the lineup 'sucks'.  I mean Machado, Jones and Schoop are all pretty talented, Mancini is pretty decent and then some low average but plus power guys in Trumbo, Alvarez and Davis.  All in all, not the next murders' row, but this is probably league average.

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i think the cancelled game last night pushes his next start from @STL to ATL at home, which is a much worse matchup. went from an easy start, to a maybe.

 

 

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Final line on Nick Pivetta: 7 IP, 2 H, 1 R/ER, 1 BB, 11 K.

Edited by rdf8585
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1 hour ago, BigPapi44 said:

 

I'm not sure the lineup 'sucks'.  I mean Machado, Jones and Schoop are all pretty talented, Mancini is pretty decent and then some low average but plus power guys in Trumbo, Alvarez and Davis.  All in all, not the next murders' row, but this is probably league average.

 

Personally I disagree. The line-up does have a sufficient amount of power, but as a whole it has quite DREADFUL OBP skills, and that's why you're seeing the downfall of the line-up. I like Trey Mancini a lot, but he's not a lead-off hitter, and the fact that he's their best option there tells you a lot about what you need to know aobut this line-up. When they started the season leading off Chrush I thought "this is really freaking stupid," and then I looked down their line-up and exhaled and said "s---, I would've tried this. They don't have anybody who walks at all." 

 

Do people talk about walks probably a bit too much in modern baseball? Maybe. This line-up is just so unbelievably bad at it though.

 

Machado is an absolute stud, and I'll absolutely give you that one. His lightning start though didn't help their offense from being pretty poor out of the gate. They started 8-20? And Machado won't be on the team after July 31st. As hard as it is to accept for fans, if they hold onto that man past July 31st (sans an extreme surprise re-signing) it will be an absolutely boneheaded maneuver. 

 

Love Mancini. Think he might be the second best hitter in this line-up. 

 

But the rest of the line-up... Adam Jones? Decent power, but not great. 29 and 26 HRs the last two years. OBPs of .310, .322, and .277 so far this year. Call it a bit of personal opinion too if you want-- my very first article called Jones someone to absolutely avoid this year. This skill-set does not age well traditionally. Age, low OBP, middling power as the second name you bring up in an argument... not great for the line-up...

 

Schoop? Yeah. He had a really good year last year. Still had no plate discipline. Still shouldn't be considered a guaranteed stud. And at best, again, he's still a below-average OBP player. Again, call it "bias" if you want comparative to how I've perceived this players already, but Schoop was also well outside my top 100 players entering the year, just like Odor was outside of my top 80 instead of a top 4 round pick for me the previous year. This is a universal for me with poor PD hitters and I find it works well enough that I feel pretty confident about it. So if you think Schoop is a great hitter, I won't directly argue that anymore. That's fine and your opinion of course. But his OBP is sitting at .281 albeit in a limited sample, and he's a year away from .298. 

 

Trumbo / Alvarez / Davis? Yeah, they're all decent hitters if they're hot. Neither one of them has had a hot streak in a year though. And that's not hyperbole. Alvarez spent all of 2017 (at least 595 PAs worth) in AAA. Chris Davis hit .215 with under 30 HRs and is hitting .170 with fewer homers now. Unlike Schoop, that's an argument I wouldn't even care for. Chris Davis is bad. His contract will be the worst in the history of baseball. Trumbo? Yeah he had a good 2016 bad 2017, so maybe he turns it around. I think he's the most likely at least. But at best he's a streaky power hitter. 

 

NO ONE on this line-up can consistently get on base (sans MM). This is the perfect line-up to stream against. Yeah it's a bit of a mine field, but the hitters are SO BAD at getting on base. 

 

EDIT: I did not realize this game had occured when I stated. but ohwell. 

Edited by taobball
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Some amount of credit has to be given to the free-swinging Orioles lineup, but Pivetta's arsenal just looks so crisp right now that I'm willing to trust him in less favorable matchups.  The K juice is one thing, but the way he's limiting walks and hard contact is very encouraging.  Really looks like he's turned a corner.  He's got a much tougher test against Atlanta next week, who's seeing him for the fourth time already, and roughed him up in two of the three matchups so far.  I'll be sitting where I own him, but watching with interest to see if he can keep it going.

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3 minutes ago, tonycpsu said:

The K juice is one thing, but the way he's limiting walks and hard contact is very encouraging.  Really looks like he's turned a corner.  

Mmmmm K juice. delish. Nice write up. Wish I was home today to watch.

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35 minutes ago, rdf8585 said:

 

Final line on Nick Pivetta: 7 IP, 2 H, 1 R/ER, 1 BB, 11 K.

 

And 15 called strikes. For a total of 38 called and swinging strikes, for the game that's 38.4% CSW.

 

Per Pitcherlist.com definition of CSW:

CSW: Called Strikes + Whiffs. A good determination of how dominant a pitcher performed. ~30% is good, anything hinting 35-40% is excellent. 20-25% often comes with bad results.

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@taobball rather than replying with a quote, all very reasoned, you are right they don't get on base much.  That said, they are 9th in homers and mid-pack in runs scored right now.   This is the state of baseball.  Convos for another thread, I guess.  Pivetta was able to dominate a league average team so give the dude some credit.

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2 hours ago, Stein said:

Anyone care to run his numbers when disregarding the Washington start? I know that's not how it works but for the sake of it.

 

What did the numbers come to?

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1 hour ago, BigPapi44 said:

@taobball rather than replying with a quote, all very reasoned, you are right they don't get on base much.  That said, they are 9th in homers and mid-pack in runs scored right now.   This is the state of baseball.  Convos for another thread, I guess.  Pivetta was able to dominate a league average team so give the dude some credit.

 

I agree better suited for another thread. I will say tho, the trend towards power has included discipline for most. Schoop and Jones have two of the worst Bb% in baseball. And the type of player that has been consistently not drawing interest in FA like Mark trumbo is the exact type of player they’ve been paying with FA money. Again different argument again, but considering the FA market for power hitters, the Os severely overpaid Chris Davis even if he was worth a s---.

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[ Yeah, I think we're good on the O's offense chat in here, fellas. ]

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2 hours ago, Stein said:

Anyone care to run his numbers when disregarding the Washington start? I know that's not how it works but for the sake of it.

 

So he lowered his season ERA and WHIP to 3.72 and 1.13 today, with 53 K and 11 walks in 46 IP. 

 

Take away the horrid game in Washington, and his ERA/WHIP would be 2.60/0.98 with only 8 walks in 45 IP. 

 

If he has no more blowups like the Washington game, Pivetta looks like he could be a nice SP3/4 for a lot of owners...not bad for a guy who was probably mostly a WW add...or at best, a late round pick. 

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7 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:

 

So he lowered his season ERA and WHIP to 3.72 and 1.13 today, with 53 K and 11 walks in 46 IP. 

 

Take away the horrid game in Washington, and his ERA/WHIP would be 2.60/0.98 with only 8 walks in 45 IP. 

 

If he has no more blowups like the Washington game, Pivetta looks like he could be a nice SP3/4 for a lot of owners...not bad for a guy who was probably mostly a WW add...or at best, a late round pick. 

With a mulligan of a start - he's in the Strasburg/Carassco range.

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This was before today's gem of a performance. 

 

https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/news/fantasy-baseball-waiver-wire-its-time-to-take-delino-desheilds-seriously/

 

Nick Pivetta is good. I know he was a disaster last season, and the 4.15 ERA doesn't quite show it, but I promise: Pivetta is good. He bounced back from an awful start against the Nationals in his last start with a great showing against the Giants on Wednesday, limiting them to just four hits over five innings, and it was nice to see him overcome a 30-pitch first inning. Pivetta has a 25.6 percent strikeout rate and 6.1 percent walk rate, good for the 18th-best K-BB rate in baseball. He is relying on his secondary pitches more than last year, and has even added some velocity to his fastball. Inconsistency has been an issue this season, but the results are still mostly positive. Buy in before someone else in your league does.

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Pivetta's curve today was filthy. Just watched the condensed version of the game, and the K's he got on the curve had crazy late break.

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1 hour ago, rrrrich46 said:

Who wants to hazard a guess on his spot on next week's Pitcher's List? Top 30? 

Definite top 30. Maybe even top 25. 53/11 K/BB, 3.72 ERA, 1.13 WHIP. Solid SP 3-4 numbers right there. I missed out on Newcomb, but he has been a nice addition to my lineup. 

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33 minutes ago, InMyBagYo said:

Definite top 30. Maybe even top 25. 53/11 K/BB, 3.72 ERA, 1.13 WHIP. Solid SP 3-4 numbers right there. I missed out on Newcomb, but he has been a nice addition to my lineup. 

 

Id much rather Pivetta than Newcomb.

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two home starts next week vs atl and vs tor.  the atlanta matchup should be a good one.....

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Just now, InMyBagYo said:

Why?

 

I’m not a newcomb believer as much as others. It primarily comes down to walks. Still think he’s good but this hot streak as good as t has been hasn’t convinced me yet that he’s not a complete wild card.

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