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Walker Buehler 2018 Outlook

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Disclaimer: the kid is obviously very talented, and I'm elated to have him on my team.

 

BUT...

 

In redraft - you've gotta sell high, right?  Not because I expect regression, but because he's going to get shut down before fantasy playoffs start, isn't he?  Move him to a team that is pitching-deficient for a more established talent that will help you for the whole season.  Make him someone else's problem.

 

Am I crazy or is anyone else thinking the same?

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I think it’s more likely they pace him all year at a slower rate. They need him. This team did just lose a World Series and Kershaw is not himself.

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3 minutes ago, Phreedom32 said:

I think it’s more likely they pace him all year at a slower rate. They need him. This team did just lose a World Series and Kershaw is not himself.


This. Based on how that rotation is now, at any given moment one of them is likely to find themselves on the DL. So I think his playtime will be very sporadic, but he should be there throughout the season at least. 

But, at the same time, if we know anything, it's that baseball clubs and managers don't always make logical decisions. 

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Thanks for talking me off the ledge.  I'll hold for now.

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1 hour ago, JJ1223 said:

Disclaimer: the kid is obviously very talented, and I'm elated to have him on my team.

 

BUT...

 

In redraft - you've gotta sell high, right?  Not because I expect regression, but because he's going to get shut down before fantasy playoffs start, isn't he?  Move him to a team that is pitching-deficient for a more established talent that will help you for the whole season.  Make him someone else's problem.

 

Am I crazy or is anyone else thinking the same?

I think you may be right man. Hed be a sneaky flip for someone like Darvish right now assuming Darvish turns it around.

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Sky is the limit for this kid, even in redraft. His 130 or so innings + 70 replacement innings = likely better than who you get in a trade. IMO. 

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51 minutes ago, Dirty Little Birdie said:

I think you may be right man. Hed be a sneaky flip for someone like Darvish right now assuming Darvish turns it around.

Sounds crazy, but I wouldn't trade him for Darvish in any of the 9 redraft leagues I own him. He's too valuable. Or, maybe I'm too stupid. Idk. 

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15 minutes ago, MugsyBogues said:

Sounds crazy, but I wouldn't trade him for Darvish in any of the 9 redraft leagues I own him. He's too valuable. Or, maybe I'm too stupid. Idk. 

 

Same here. And the fact that he is RP in my league adds even more value. I know he's only gonna pitch up until July/August, but he is gonna help me push to make the playoffs. People worry about having certain guys for the playoff run, but you have to make the playoffs first.

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I'm very very seriously considering trading ....

Edited by Patrick Bateman
BC Content removed. We don't need to know about trades your considering. Please take to the appropriate forum.

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IF someone were considering trading him in a dynasty who would you be looking to get? 

Im not considering it but I’m curious what you kind of player you could get for him. 

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37 minutes ago, Under500Forever said:

IF someone were considering trading him in a dynasty who would you be looking to get? 

Im not considering it but I’m curious what you kind of player you could get for him. 

 

In dynasty i dont know if this is his market value or not but i bought him for alex wood this preseason

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I'd have a hard time trading him in a dynasty/keeper league.  I have him in my keeper league and don't plan on trading him.  If I got overwhelmed, sure, but it would probably take roughly a Top 20 SP or the equivalent in hitting.  Sure, his first 4 starts have been cakewalk matchups, but aside from the first inning of each of his first two starts, he's pitched well enough that he likely would have still put up quality starts against much better competition.  Even in a cakewalk matchup, I give credit where credit is due if they absolutely dominate them.  Mediocre pitchers don't necessarily carve up even bad teams like Buehler has in his last two starts (and the last 4 innings of the start against the Giants before those two games).

 

I only got to watch the first inning of his start last night, but he was really impressive even though he gave up 2 hits, and obviously the final line speaks for itself.

Edited by tonycpsu
Removed Cool Story

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Apparently Pedro Martinez sees something familiar and special in Walker Buehler.

 

Edited by Halo Fan
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16 minutes ago, Halo Fan said:

Apparently Pedro Martinez sees something familiar and special in Walker Buehler.

 

Ooooh my. Still my beating heart. 

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I never really noticed it until Pedro pointed it out, but he does look pretty much just like Pedro pitching there.  Walker has toned down the FB velocity a bit, so we may not see him hit the really high 90's like they were talking about there, but he seems to have gotten better since doing so.

 

Even though it's against another weak opponent, I'm excited to watch him pitch again tonight.  It should be a fun one, even if the Dodgers continue to suck otherwise.

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19 hours ago, Halo Fan said:

Apparently Pedro Martinez sees something familiar and special in Walker Buehler.

 

 

Man that side-by-side looked pretty gosh dang identical.  

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That didn't go as planned, but I'm not discouraged at all.  A lot of what the Marlins did against him tonight was pure luck, with most of the hits being seeing eye hits, and Bour just flicking the bat and hitting a 2-run opposite field HR.

 

Obviously a bad start against the Marlins of all teams isn't ideal, but he wasn't wild or anything, and unfortunately he had to have some regression at some point regardless of the opponent.

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1 hour ago, KilloWertz said:

That didn't go as planned, but I'm not discouraged at all.  A lot of what the Marlins did against him tonight was pure luck, with most of the hits being seeing eye hits, and Bour just flicking the bat and hitting a 2-run opposite field HR.

 

Obviously a bad start against the Marlins of all teams isn't ideal, but he wasn't wild or anything, and unfortunately he had to have some regression at some point regardless of the opponent.

0-2 HBP on Rojas and 0-2 single Anderson can’t happen.  This is part of learning curve.  If we’re being objective and honest his efficiency wasn’t good today.  When you’re up in the count you put those losers away.  Threw a lot of extra pitches that were unnecessary.  He’s young so there will be growing pains, but Dodgers are struggling so they’re playing some guys out of position to get offense going and it could trickle down to defensive efficiency.  

Edited by Cmilne23
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Got BABIP to death and of course the complete luck sack "I don't even care" swing by Bour that flew over the fence.

 

I'll take the K's for sure.  Overall, I like what I saw.

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8 hours ago, Cmilne23 said:

0-2 HBP on Rojas and 0-2 single Anderson can’t happen.  This is part of learning curve.  If we’re being objective and honest his efficiency wasn’t good today.  When you’re up in the count you put those losers away.  Threw a lot of extra pitches that were unnecessary.  He’s young so there will be growing pains, but Dodgers are struggling so they’re playing some guys out of position to get offense going and it could trickle down to defensive efficiency.  

You're not wrong that those two things can't happen, but I'm still chalking up last night's start more to bad luck than him truly pitching horribly.  The HR was a joke, there was a bit of poor defense, and he did indeed get BABIP'd to death.

 

Being objective, obviously it wasn't a good start and I'm not saying you're wrong, but I was more frustrated while watching it about all of the bad luck than the mistakes he made.

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8 hours ago, Cmilne23 said:

0-2 HBP on Rojas and 0-2 single Anderson can’t happen.  This is part of learning curve.  If we’re being objective and honest his efficiency wasn’t good today.  When you’re up in the count you put those losers away.  Threw a lot of extra pitches that were unnecessary.  He’s young so there will be growing pains, but Dodgers are struggling so they’re playing some guys out of position to get offense going and it could trickle down to defensive efficiency.  

Agreed

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Next season he's a top 25 SP, that's being conservative.

 

Assuming no innings cap and generally healthy. 

 

Sky is the limit.

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Two starter next week and both at home versus the Rocks who are surprisingly hitting dead last versus righties this year and not far from the bottom are the Padres who he closes the week out with. Fire him up  

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Stripling's gem has me a little concerned that Buehler makes only one start next week. Looks like Blake Stewart is starting on Wednesday. Stripling probably gets Friday followed by Wood and Hill. 

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