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Walker Buehler 2018 Outlook

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1 hour ago, Backdoor Slider said:

Dude has exceeded my wildest expectations. He’s been awesome. That said, he’s a sit for me this week @ COL. The risk not worth it. 

 

Colorado has a terrible offense and I remember Sean Newcomb shutting them down a while ago in colorado. It's not like it used to be. I'm starting with confidence.

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1 hour ago, lassetjus said:

 

Colorado has a terrible offense and I remember Sean Newcomb shutting them down a while ago in colorado. It's not like it used to be. I'm starting with confidence.

So am I.  I can understand being a little hesitant, but like somebody else said a bit ago, I'm starting Buehler no matter who he's going up against or where.  He's had a really soft schedule, but he's been pitching at a high enough level that the results are definitely not just because of a soft schedule for him so far.

 

Some people will focus on his 6 no-hit inning start from early in the month, but I actually think he's been at his best in his last two starts.  He was as pinpoint today as I've ever seen him, even if was only by a small margin over his last start.

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So because the discussion started,  I decided to take a closer look. Colorado ranks near the bottom in runs scored at home, but they’ve played 7-9 less home games than many others.

They currently rank 8th in home OPS.

Checked Friday’s weather in Denver and there’s a high of 94. Remember that current OPS includes what was a cold/wet April almost everywhere. Heat + Coors is a mix I don’t want to mess with.

 

Just sharing in case any others are waffling. Good luck to those who start and of course I’m hoping for the best.

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3 hours ago, lassetjus said:

 

Colorado has a terrible offense and I remember Sean Newcomb shutting them down a while ago in colorado. It's not like it used to be. I'm starting with confidence.

Newcombe had a great game against them in Colorado back in April. Peralta did even better striking out 13 and giving up 1 hit in 5 2/3 less than two weeks ago. If you are gonna shut them down in Colorado It would make sense there would likely be a lot of k’s and The Rockies average the 5th most strikeouts per game in the NL. 

 

Keep in mind Buhler faced Colorado just 6 days ago at Dodger Stadium that could be one thing that favors Colorado. 

Edited by HBEACH
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He's locked into my rotation for every start now. 

 

He's performed like a top 10 SP since getting the call, has a decent team, and Kenley seems to be back. 

 

 

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Yup. Walker has been filthy. I'm curious what he can do against a top offense. So far he has pitched against CO, SF, SD, Miami, Cincy, etc. 

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9 hours ago, yankees77 said:

Yup. Walker has been filthy. I'm curious what he can do against a top offense. So far he has pitched against CO, SF, SD, Miami, Cincy, etc. 

 

Agreed he has been really good but not this good... which has been cy young caliber. 9.8% overall swinging strike rate does not correlate well to his 30% K rate though it is still a small sample so maybe his swinging strike rate is bound to go up and K rate go down a bit but not too much. Last night's game he had about 15% swinging strike rate so that was good to see. He has been throwing about 20% sinkers this year and reduced his 4 seam usage. Perhaps he has been getting a lot of called 3rd strikes with late movement. We shall see if that keeps working against tougher competition.

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Starting at Colordao. We puttifg hnm out there

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5 minutes ago, dannyusf said:

Starting at Colordao. We puttifg hnm out there

i have to meet the minimum innings pitched.  i have no choice.

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45 minutes ago, dannyusf said:

Starting at Colordao. We puttifg hnm out there

Definitely putting him out there.  I think his stuff will play fine in Coors, especially since he keeps the ball down most of the time.  Should be an interesting test.

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1 minute ago, KilloWertz said:

Definitely putting him out there.  I think his stuff will play fine in Coors, especially since he keeps the ball down most of the time.  Should be an interesting test.

 

That lineup with LaMahieu back should be a great test for him vs a potent lineup. Cant wait to see how his stuff matches up to the likes of Arenado, Story, LaMahieu, and co.

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He did fantastic against them two weeks ago. Only gave up 2 hits. Kept Arenado, Story, and Blackmon off the bases.

 

Hopefully he can repeat in Coors tonight. 

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On 5/28/2018 at 9:52 PM, Pat Patriot said:

He’s been impressive, curious to see where he stacks up in dynasty rankings moving forward.

 

I traded away Schezer and got Beuhler and Treinen back.  Schezer was a $38 player I wasn't keeping next year and Beuhler and Treinen are both $1 players I can lock up for three years.  That's how much I believe in Beuhler myself.

 

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27 minutes ago, yankees77 said:

He did fantastic against them two weeks ago. Only gave up 2 hits. Kept Arenado, Story, and Blackmon off the bases.

 

Hopefully he can repeat in Coors tonight. 

 

CarGo has come alive also recently...this should be interesting.

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33 minutes ago, yankees77 said:

He did fantastic against them two weeks ago. Only gave up 2 hits. Kept Arenado, Story, and Blackmon off the bases.

 

Hopefully he can repeat in Coors tonight. 

It’s not the lineup, it’s the location. The ball doesn’t break as much in the thin air, then travels further when it’s hit. That outing has nothing to do with this one. Good luck.

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1 hour ago, Backdoor Slider said:

It’s not the lineup, it’s the location. The ball doesn’t break as much in the thin air, then travels further when it’s hit. That outing has nothing to do with this one. Good luck.

True, but he also would be far from the first pitcher to pitch good there.  We'll obviously see how it goes, but I think his stuff can still play there.

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33 minutes ago, KilloWertz said:

True, but he also would be far from the first pitcher to pitch good there.  We'll obviously see how it goes, but I think his stuff can still play there.

“Some pitchers have succeeded there before” isn’t a great argument though. Anything CAN happen. This is about playing the percentages and risk/reward. Because that’s what we’re all doing. 

The consensus best SP in baseball over the last decade (Kershaw) has faced COL 38 times and has a 3.22 ERA/1.14 WHIP/.227 BAA

 

Not bad. But he’s been 2 different pitchers home and away v. this same team. His splits @ Coors in 20 of those starts:

4.65 ERA/1.31 WHIP/2.68 BAA

 

This is what Coors is. Again, anything can happen TODAY. And as an owner who benched him, I’m still hoping for the best. But the chance I miss out on a GREAT outing is much smaller than if I dodge a bad one. 

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1 minute ago, rrrrich46 said:

Small bump in the road. He's a Top 20 SP next season. 

Agreed.  It's unfortunate that the 2nd inning was so bad, and obviously I was wrong in thinking he was going to be fine, but it's one game in Coors.  Sure, this was his first true test and it's a failure overall, that also doesn't erase everything he's done.

 

The main issue, at least in the first two innings, was he was throwing almost all fastballs.  It doesn't matter if he was throwing a little harder than usual.  Especially in Coors, if you keep throwing mainly just fastballs, they are going to hit it eventually even if it's near 100.  Sad thing is he ended the 2nd inning by striking out CarGo on a breaking ball.  I know it doesn't break as well there, but you still have to throw them some.  It's a learning experience I suppose.

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Was just pulled from the game in the top of 6th after getting a K...pitch count was low. Hope it's nothing serious. Some more Dodger Blues

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1 minute ago, sauceman11 said:

Was just pulled from the game in the top of 6th after getting a K...pitch count was low. Hope it's nothing serious. Some more Dodger Blues

 

Trainer came out with Roberts but from

what I could see there was nothing that suggested he was hampered by something.

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