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Walker Buehler 2018 Outlook

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So, I guess they are trying to say he's good and stuff. :D

 

It was a shame and frustrating that they blew the game for him again (specifically it being Alexander yet again), but another amazing performance.  He's a bonafide keeper obviously like JohnR said, but he's also going to be a bonafide ace next season (he already is actually).

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If you take out that lunatic 1IP rehab appearance in the majors where he gave up 5 ER, his ERA would be 2.50. It's crazy he's not in the ROY discussion.

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3 minutes ago, Fuzzy_Slippers said:

Taken out after 4 innings. 

right when I was going to show some love and say he has 14 out of 17 starts allowing 2 runs of less

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just didn't have location last night from what I saw. Plus, he was due for a start like this after performing so steady for couple starts now imo.

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Good outing today. Unfortunately the Dodgers couldn't score off of Cy Buchholz. 

But also this..

Hopefully it's nothing. 

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I didn't think anything of it when it happened as the announcers didn't mention anything and he kept pitching, but I thought I saw the hard grounder Jon Jay hit up the middle that ended up going to Dozier in the Top of the 6th go off his foot.  If I'm not mistaken, he pitched the rest of the inning just fine.  He was a little shaky in the 7th before getting pulled, but it didn't look anything out of the ordinary.

 

Obviously I'm hoping it's nothing as well, and he was pretty good again today.  If I were to nitpick, maybe his pitch count could have been better here and there, and obviously walking the pitcher once was pretty sad, but I was really pleased with the outing other than the fact that Muncy's HR was all they could get for him.

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4 hours ago, crotchcrickets said:

all of suddenly having nightmarish flashbacks of the trevor bauer incident

Understandable, but if I'm correct on when it happened, Buehler just kept on going like nothing happened.  Bauer's was much worse, and he wasn't actually hit in the foot even though the media kept saying he was.

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Pretty confident he will make his next start. The Rockies are an interesting team. At Coors, they are 29th in wRC+, but are also 2nd in wOBA and 4th in ISO. They are middle-of-the-pack in K% and don't draw many walks. In Buehler's two previous start at Coors, he had a combined 12 IP, 4 ER, 5 BB, and 8 strikeouts. Go get 'em, Buehler.

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11 minutes ago, Fuzzy_Slippers said:

Pretty confident he will make his next start. The Rockies are an interesting team. At Coors, they are 29th in wRC+, but are also 2nd in wOBA and 4th in ISO. They are middle-of-the-pack in K% and don't draw many walks. In Buehler's two previous start at Coors, he had a combined 12 IP, 4 ER, 5 BB, and 8 strikeouts. Go get 'em, Buehler.

Yeah, if he makes his next start, I'm rolling him out there.  I was scared off the last time he pitched there because of how bad it went the first time, but not anymore.

 

The only reason I could see for him not making that start is if they want to use this as an excuse to manage his innings, but honestly, I don't think it's anything.

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Xrays came back negative. Buehler says it was a muscle cramp and he expects to make his next start. Ken Gurnick from MLB.com is the source.

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1 hour ago, MrBrett said:

Xrays came back negative. Buehler says it was a muscle cramp and he expects to make his next start. Ken Gurnick from MLB.com is the source.

So, basically tomorrow he'll be on the DL?

 

I am half joking, as X-rays are basically useless.  It didn't pick up anything with his ribs and it didn't pick up anything with Trevor Bauer either.  Not sure why they just don't get an MRI and skip right over the X-rays.

 

In this case, it does seem like he is fine though as it is just a muscle cramp.

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Anyone else a little concerned about the fact that the Dodgers don't seem to be concerned about his innings count? Previous high was last year, 98 innings. The rule of thumb seems to be that an increase of 30% from one year to the next is about the max that you want to go in order to be safe and avoid injury. That would be ~127 innings and he's at 120.2 right now... Unless there is something about the situation that I'm not taking into consideration?

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Re: upcoming start @ Coors.

 

I know the kid is great.  I've had him all year and very rarely hesitated to start him.  @ Coors, I'm hesitating.  I wouldn't be looking at his positive results over the last 2 starts as an indicator of future success.  I'd be looking at it as him being due for regression to the mean.

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36 minutes ago, paulr24 said:

Unless there is something about the situation that I'm not taking into consideration?

 

Rules of thumb were made to be bent and/or broken when your team is fighting for their life to make the playoffs.  Now that  they're in better shape standings-wise they might back off some and save whatever bullets he has left for the playoffs

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5 hours ago, paulr24 said:

Anyone else a little concerned about the fact that the Dodgers don't seem to be concerned about his innings count? Previous high was last year, 98 innings. The rule of thumb seems to be that an increase of 30% from one year to the next is about the max that you want to go in order to be safe and avoid injury. That would be ~127 innings and he's at 120.2 right now... Unless there is something about the situation that I'm not taking into consideration?

Honestly, I think this whole thing with a lot of young pitchers is just simply babying them and they a lot of them probably don't need innings limits and pitch counts.

 

With that said, no, I'm not worried even if they do continue to kind of ignore his innings limit.  Tony may be right and they may monitor him a bit more again now that they aren't struggling so much anymore, but regardless, I think he'll be fine.

 

4 hours ago, JJ1223 said:

Re: upcoming start @ Coors.

 

I know the kid is great.  I've had him all year and very rarely hesitated to start him.  @ Coors, I'm hesitating.  I wouldn't be looking at his positive results over the last 2 starts as an indicator of future success.  I'd be looking at it as him being due for regression to the mean.

Not saying he will pitch good for sure, but I thought the same thing before his last time in Coors and I missed out on a really good pitched game.  His first start there was a disaster, but the second one was far from it, putting any concerns about him pitching there to rest.

 

Honestly, it's nowhere near as bad to pitch there as it once was.  Rich Hill is very reliant on breaking pitches and he also pitched really good there the last time they played there, so other than the ability to hit for more XBHs, it's not a park I will automatically avoid anymore.

 

Lastly, while he's obviously not going to go out there and keep giving up 1 run at most, his ERA and WHIP aren't at a point where he would be due for any substantial regression.  So, I don't think a blow up start is inevitable to correct anything that is out of whack so to speak.

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Do you honestly see him imploding just because it's Coors.

 

He's given up 79 hits in 104 innings

His K/BB is 115/28

He's given up 10 home runs

 

If he gives up a HR or 2, fine. People probably won't be on base.

 

Start him and expect something close to a QS if not better.

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Walker Buehler is basically the Dodgers' Jacob deGrom.  Granted he shouldn't have given up 2 HRs, but he's still stuck at 6 Wins after 19 starts.

 

Granted he missed most of June because of his stint on the DL with his cracked ribs, but he has 2 wins since he got the win in his start on June 8.

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What's going on with Buehler? Was supposed to go tomorrow, and now Stripling is penciled in. I'm counting on one start from him this week...

Edited by rdf8585

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2 hours ago, rdf8585 said:

What's going on with Buehler? Was supposed to go tomorrow, and now Stripling is penciled in. I'm counting on one start from him this week...

 

Not sure - maybe he goes on Friday now?  (Currently TBA)

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His innings are in the range where I wouldn't count on much after Friday's start. They probably want to save those bullets for the postseason. 

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