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Paul Goldschmidt 2018 Outlook

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Posted (edited)

The home/road splits are just simply SSS noise. He's had 2 big slump and the majority of games just happened to be at home  3/29 thru 4/8 and the current one that started after 4/26 . He went 7/19 with 5BB's and 4 XBH in the 4/17- 4/22 home stand.  He's only had 1 XBH since 4/26.  Don't use the ballpark excuse. Something is literately wrong with him right now

 

He hit 2 HRs @ SF in the 4/9-4/11 series.  Ya know one the largest ball parks in the MLB. 

 

Pollock has a 1.000 OPS at home. A really good hitter can still hit at chase. He hasn't been a good hitter

Edited by Slatykamora
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Posted (edited)
15 minutes ago, IceGoat said:

 

True -- I will admit, there is more of a gap between the two in OBP leagues which I play in. This has colored my impressions of both. 

Just accepted the deal. It’s an OBP league but I’m #1 in that category and already have freeman. 

If abreu gets dealt at the deadline it only helps me. I wish goldy the best, but I seriously could see this elbow ending up like a seager tommy John category. Pollock down for the count sealed the deal for me. I’m not one to overreact but the red flags are there. Goldy is a class act and HOF player, hoping he straightens it out. If last September/oct wasn’t a thing I wouldn’t have budged yet.  

Edited by Motown_Magic
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2 hours ago, smeeze said:

a couple of interesting tidbits in this article:

 

You don’t need an advanced medical degree to diagnose that as a slump, and yet Goldschmidt is still hitting the ball pretty hard — not as hard as last year, but well enough to expect better results (stats through Tuesday):

 
Paul Goldschmidt via Statcast
Year Avg EV Avg LA wOBA xwOBA Diff
2015 92.1 13.0 .418 .397 .021
2016 91.0 11.1 .382 .367 .015
2017 91.4 11.6 .400 .401 -.001
2018 89.2 14.1 .315 .365 -.050
SOURCE: Baseball Savant

Goldschmidt’s actual wOBA has historically tracked pretty well with his expected wOBA based upon launch angles and exit velocities — except for this year. He’s elevating the ball a bit more often than usual, and he’s in the upper third of the league when it comes to the number of balls he’s hit with an exit velocity of 95 mph or higher, but getting none of the payoff.

 

Also:

 

Fifteen of their next 21 games are on the road.  (Next 3 weeks should be very telling).

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I just bought in.  Probably the best chance to get an annual first round talent at this low of a cost.  It’s obviously not without risk, but you gotta take a risk at some point in the season if you wanna win a championship.

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Definitely been considering selling these last couple days. I think everyone who hasn't own him is looking to buy in, and this could be the last opportunity to get 1st round talent for him. If he continues this slump to the all-star break, his value is going to plummet.

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15 minutes ago, Bravesfan155 said:

Definitely been considering selling these last couple days. I think everyone who hasn't own him is looking to buy in, and this could be the last opportunity to get 1st round talent for him. If he continues this slump to the all-star break, his value is going to plummet.

 

People are paying 1st round talent??? Most offers I’ve seen are no better than top 25

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I happily have owned Goldy in a keeper league for 5 years and appreciate all the magic he's delivered with his bat. That said, all those scoffing at owners selling low are either uninformed or fooling themselves. Let's deal with facts. Here's a fact: Since September 1, 2017 (including the playoffs) Goldy has gone 47-for-247. I did the math for you. That's a .190 batting average over a 68-game stretch. Darn near a half-season of baseball. I'm not going to figure out his OPS during that stretch, but I can assure you it's hovering barely above .600. Here's another fact: 8 stolen bases in his last 143 games. No reason to think that's a fluke. And then there's the humidor effect, leaving Chase Field as one of the premier pitching parks in baseball in 2018. And then, as others have noted, there's the elbow issue that came to light last September. There's plenty of reason to believe Goldy will bounce back and resume being a top-10 first baseman. But with the 68-game slump, decline in SB production and the humidor effect, I think betting against even top-25 overall production is very reasonable. I cut bait, btw. Aaron Nola straight up. No regrets!

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9 hours ago, Bravesfan155 said:

Definitely been considering selling these last couple days. I think everyone who hasn't own him is looking to buy in, and this could be the last opportunity to get 1st round talent for him. If he continues this slump to the all-star break, his value is going to plummet.

 

lol what?  what "first round talent" do you think people are gonna give for him?  He was low first round anyway this year

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0-4, 4 K's.  The beat just goes on for this guy.  His last AB by Familia its as if he wasnt even trying.  Just two of the ugliest swings you will see.

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13 hours ago, The Waker said:

 

lol what?  what "first round talent" do you think people are gonna give for him?  He was low first round anyway this year

 

I guess i should have said top talent. I think you could get a pretty decent haul on name value right now. I don't think that's a laughable statement.

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Has to be an injury and my guess is that he’s in Seager’s shoes and needs TJS. 

 

He missed 2-4 days and got an MRI on it last year in Sept. And while reports were that it came back clean, I’m pretty sure Seager’s did too when he started having problems

 

With snakes in contention, there was no way he could have gotten it taken care of when it happened down the stretch last year, then come into this year thinking you’re a contender.... He’s trying to fight through it and failing miserably.

 

 

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Every other year Goldy has an "off year" as far as power and RBIs..

 

This year falls on his "off year" so if you got him first round, you didn't see the pattern.  With that said, his "off year" now has become Terrible.

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6 hours ago, Junkie Cosmonaut said:

Has to be an injury and my guess is that he’s in Seager’s shoes and needs TJS. 

 

He missed 2-4 days and got an MRI on it last year in Sept. And while reports were that it came back clean, I’m pretty sure Seager’s did too when he started having problems

 

With snakes in contention, there was no way he could have gotten it taken care of when it happened down the stretch last year, then come into this year thinking you’re a contender.... He’s trying to fight through it and failing miserably.

 

 

 

I’m worried some kind of injury announcement is coming any day now.

I want to move him so I don’t get caught with my pants down.

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People have to realize that Goldy is done. If you can get anything for him (let alone a strasburg as someone in this thread stated) then you are doing good.

I was offering Walker Buehler for him 1 for 1, but got denied across all platforms. I am kind of glad that I did get denied because Goldy's peripherals say he is finished.

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2 minutes ago, CrypTviLL said:

People have to realize that Goldy is done. If you can get anything for him (let alone a strasburg as someone in this thread stated) then you are doing good.

I was offering Walker Buehler for him 1 for 1, but got denied across all platforms. I am kind of glad that I did get denied because Goldy's peripherals say he is finished.

If Goldy is done in your opinion, why would you offer one of the top young arms in baseball for him?

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Just now, StevieStats said:

If Goldy is done in your opinion, why would you offer one of the top young arms in baseball for him?

Walker Buehler is an ideal trade candidate in H2H redraft leagues.

He will likely be shut down by the fantasy playoffs or on a severe innings limit. He won't be netting much wins. And there's always the chance that the league figures him out. He's my ideal candidate to net me a valuable playoff piece. The hype on him is huge as well.

 

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Just now, CrypTviLL said:

Walker Buehler is an ideal trade candidate in H2H redraft leagues.

He will likely be shut down by the fantasy playoffs or on a severe innings limit. He won't be netting much wins. And there's always the chance that the league figures him out. He's my ideal candidate to net me a valuable playoff piece. The hype on him is huge as well.

 

... but you said Goldy is done. If you really feel that way why are you targeting him in trades?

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Just now, StevieStats said:

... but you said Goldy is done. If you really feel that way why are you targeting him in trades?

Risk/reward. Last week or so I figured you know what, maybe Goldy could turn it around... but that was weak of me. The reality is that he is done. I wouldn't be offering those trades today, only way Goldy enters my team is free via the free agent wire now.

 

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