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Paul Goldschmidt 2018 Outlook

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Whoa.  No thread at all.... okay then 

 

Rotoworld seems overly scathing with the official news that the humidor will be installed this year:

 

Quote
Diamondbacks GM Mike Hazen confirmed Tuesday to Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic that Chase Field will have a working humidor in 2018.
It's something that has been rumored for a while, and the news is now official. Piecoro notes that "the humidor –- a climate-controlled chamber in which baseballs are stored –- could drastically impact how hard balls are hit and, as a result, how far they travel." The expectation is that this will lead to a significant drop in home runs at was one of the more power-friendly parks in Major League Baseball. It could obviously have wide-reaching fantasy implications. Coors Field in Denver, Colorado is the only other stadium in MLB that uses a humidor and there are scientific theories that point to humidity-controlled baseball storage having a far greater impact in the drier air of Phoenix, Arizona. Feb 13 - 11:11 PM

 

Is anyone moving him down a little bit, or "don't overthink, it's Goldy" still hold true here? 

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My guess is the humidor affects the fringe guys a lot more than a guy like Goldy. But if the HRs drop, which sounds likely, he probably bangs out 40+ doubles and the AVG goes back up closer to .310+ than .295. And considering he’s still stealing bags, .297/36/18 might turn into .310/29/21. 

I wouldn’t sweat it and if I’m in a keeper league, I might use this as an opportunity to pounce if the owner is even the least bit worried. 

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I just watched a video where Scott white on CBS dropped him from 3 overall to 11. Which to me is insane considering he is not a player based on solely his power. I think it's something to beware of but yes it's still goldy. I would say a decrease in homers to settle in the 25 range but still elite stats everywhere else.

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Isn't the right answer normally somewhere in the middle?

 

Don't pick him at 3 now with the added risk of losing a good portion of his HR.

 

But if he slides to you at 10 because everyone is afraid, pounce.

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Does anybody know where or how to find out how many of Paul's homeruns over the past several years at Chase Field would be classified as "fence scrapers" vs. "no doubters"? I would be worried if he hit a bunch of fence scrapers but much less worried barring that...

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2 hours ago, Ry34No said:

I just watched a video where Scott white on CBS dropped him from 3 overall to 11. Which to me is insane considering he is not a player based on solely his power. I think it's something to beware of but yes it's still goldy. I would say a decrease in homers to settle in the 25 range but still elite stats everywhere else.

 

But the entire will get negatively impacted by the humidor, so there should be less runs and RBIs as well as a drop in HRs

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Logically, he's a year older so SBs should decrease. And the humidor will decrease his HRs, even slightly. 

 

It's hard to imagine either of those stats actually increasing. 

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I posted his career home-away stats in the Arizona Diamondbacks thread. I'm not an owner, but if I was, I wouldn't be too concerned about it. Don't overthink it. 

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5 hours ago, hgh22 said:

Does anybody know where or how to find out how many of Paul's homeruns over the past several years at Chase Field would be classified as "fence scrapers" vs. "no doubters"? I would be worried if he hit a bunch of fence scrapers but much less worried barring that...

 

http://www.brooksbaseball.net/h_spray.php?player=502671&time=year&minmax=ci&var=count&s_type=15&endDate=02/28/2018&startDate=03/30/2007

 

That's all his homers but don't see a filter to change it to home game splits.

 

 

Edited by ryno1980
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Baseball Savant lets you filter their spray charts, but you have to mess with the URL to do it -- there's no way to filter by venue on the page.

 

Here's the URL for his hits at Chase Field.  And, for some weird reason, the spray charts always default to Kaufman Stadium, so you have to select the D'Backs from the dropdown to see the hits overlaid correctly on the field.  It looks like this:

 

image.thumb.png.41e756b3e43e62138bd6049e642f1d52.png

 

And even after all of that, you can't really trust the chart, though, because sometimes it's just plain wrong. Click the circle directly underneath the 407 in straightaway center to see what I mean (on the page itself, not my screenshot) -- that thing looks like a wall-scraper to CF on the chart, but in reality it's a monster bomb to right when you watch the video.

 

Just looking at a few of the videos for the ones registering as closest to the wall, I see maybe four that would have probably been loud outs with the humidor, which has been said to reduce HR distance by something like 14 feet.  The oppo shot along the RF line is definitely a Chase Field special, and a few of the ones closer to the LF wall probably wouldn't have made it, either.

 

Obviously none of these numbers are set in stone -- it'll depend on how the humidor is used, how long the balls sit out before they're used, etc.  But there's more than a little risk here.

 

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I appreciate the info, but I don’t really get the “But there’s more than a little risk here.” Losing HRs? Sure. 

But this is a 1B who is a .299 career hitter and has averaged ~110 runs & RBI the last 3 years, along with 24 SBs. 

Even if he drops back down to 24 HRs, is anyone not happy taking Goldy in the 1st round if he finishes .300/110/24/110/20? Or even 15 SBs? 

That’s a tasty “floor” and while there may be less of a gap, he’s still THE clear elite 1B, above Votto, Freeman, Rizzo, and the questionable bats who follow. 

This seems like a perfect “buy” opportunity.

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30 minutes ago, Backdoor Slider said:

I appreciate the info, but I don’t really get the “But there’s more than a little risk here.” Losing HRs? Sure. 

But this is a 1B who is a .299 career hitter and has averaged ~110 runs & RBI the last 3 years, along with 24 SBs. 

Even if he drops back down to 24 HRs, is anyone not happy taking Goldy in the 1st round if he finishes .300/110/24/110/20? Or even 15 SBs? 

That’s a tasty “floor” and while there may be less of a gap, he’s still THE clear elite 1B, above Votto, Freeman, Rizzo, and the questionable bats who follow. 

This seems like a perfect “buy” opportunity.

 

I feel like the buy opportunity may be a few weeks into the season. If my memory is correct, Goldy is a bit of a slow starter so that could be a good time to pounce if you don’t get him in the draft.

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There's still no way I put him behind anyone other than Trout and Altuve. Arenado will pile up the HR/RBIs but he's not an elite OBP guy who also steals bases. Turner is close but I'm not ready to pick him 3 after what he's done just yet. Kershaw hasn't pitched a full season 3/4 years. If you believe in Stantons last season production he for sure will but every other year he's disappointed. My point is if the only thing going against Goldy is a stadium adjustment then I don't believe it's validated to drop him down the rankings when other guys have not had the production over the years, or has had the injury history.

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1 hour ago, Backdoor Slider said:

I appreciate the info, but I don’t really get the “But there’s more than a little risk here.”  Losing HRs? Sure. 

 

I'm talking about adding the risk of a modest HR drop to the existing risks, which include (a) he's heading into his age 31 season, (b) he gets a good amount of his value from stolen bases, (c) the lineup around him is taking a step backward unless JD comes back.

 

Of course he still has a first round floor, I just don't see it a top 3 overall pick floor anymore, and I don't understand why you think that's so controversial.

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12 minutes ago, tonycpsu said:

 

Of course he still has a first round floor, I just don't see it a top 3 overall pick floor anymore, and I don't understand why you think that's so controversial.

 

Why would you think I find this controversial? You haven’t stated this prior, so clearly this couldn’t have been what I was discussing. 

All I wanted was clarification as to what we were saying was the risk. 

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OK, well, happy to clarify, and my apologies for reading your response the wrong way.

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10 minutes ago, tonycpsu said:

OK, well, happy to clarify, and my apologies for reading your response the wrong way.

One clarification- His birthday isn’t until September. This will be his age 30 season. 

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46 minutes ago, BigPapi44 said:

Credit to Fangraphs. If you don't think it will have an impact, I'd encourage those to read the following:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/baseballs-newest-pitcher-friendly-park/

That’s a good article full of best guesses. I read it already. But for the record, I don’t believe I’ve seen one person in the thread who doesn’t “think it will have an impact.” I think that’s thoroughly been acknowledged. Many are just saying he does so many other things, and he’s not JUST HR dependent, that it shouldn’t hurt his overall value *too* much. 

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The elevation and temperature stuff is the most overrated thing going in baseball. No affect for me. Especially for Goldy - if you've ever seen him get ahold of one, the couple yard difference isn't going to hold it in. I'll happily play it up though if it means i get Goldy at a discount.

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1 hour ago, Bravesfan155 said:

The elevation and temperature stuff is the most overrated thing going in baseball. No affect for me. Especially for Goldy - if you've ever seen him get ahold of one, the couple yard difference isn't going to hold it in. I'll happily play it up though if it means i get Goldy at a discount.

 

Me too.  I want him in the two leagues I don't own him in.  Maybe I can shake him loose from those owners this season.  I got me Chris Sale a couple of years ago for dirt cheap after the "his arm is going to fall off his body at any moment because science sez" herd mentality panic attack of that year got rolling, haha.

Edited by The Big Bat Theory

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In most leagues it takes an overwhelming offer to pry Goldy loose from another managers hands. I haven’t been able to do it yet without mortgaging my team.

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41 minutes ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

 

Me too.  I want him in the two leagues I don't own him in.  Maybe I can shake him loose from those owners this season.  I got me Chris Sale a couple of years ago for dirt cheap after the "his arm is going to fall off his body at any moment because science sez" herd mentality panic attack of that year got rolling, haha.

Nice, I remember that. I remember them talking about Alex Wimmers and Chris Sale and other inverted W guys. Wimmers had TJ surgery though, so maybe they were right on that one. I turned down an offer for Sale at the beginning of last year - mainly because i was afraid he'd go on another clubhouse rampage before seasons end.

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On 2/14/2018 at 4:13 PM, Backdoor Slider said:

My guess is the humidor affects the fringe guys a lot more than a guy like Goldy. But if the HRs drop, which sounds likely, he probably bangs out 40+ doubles and the AVG goes back up closer to .310+ than .295. And considering he’s still stealing bags, .297/36/18 might turn into .310/29/21. 

I wouldn’t sweat it and if I’m in a keeper league, I might use this as an opportunity to pounce if the owner is even the least bit worried. 

 

Why would a HR turning into double increase his average?

Edited by hailtoyourvictor

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