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Paul Goldschmidt 2018 Outlook

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10 minutes ago, ragrag said:

 

The humidor isn't making him watch called strikes and hack at offerings out of the zone.  He just looks lost.  Most likely the problem is between his ears and if that's the case his home splits could be down b/c he puts more pressure on himself at home.  Doesn't have to be the humidor.

 

AJP is on a career year tear w/ the humidor in place.  Reynolds, Trea and Harper didn't seem to have any trouble w/ it yesterday either. 

 

The laws of Physics affect everyone relatively equally.  They don't apply just to Goldy.

2

 

You're cherry picking the examples of AJ Pollock and what three Nationals hitters did yesterday.

 

I'm looking at the overall stats for all hitters which show that through the first 23 games at Chase Field this season offense is down 42% compared to the previous two seasons.

 

The overall batting average at Chase Field so far this season is .215. 

 

You may want to dismiss this as merely an issue of small sample size.

 

Certainly, the sample size is too small to precisely quantify the effect of the humidor. But it's not too small of a sample size to say that the humidor is having a significant impact.

 

Keep in mind this is exactly what the physicists said would happen.

 

So, again... Goldschmidt's issues this year are obviously more than humidor related.

 

But the humidor certainly has made a major impact and will continue to make a major impact going forward.

 

Edited by ReyesMurphyWright
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1 hour ago, quietj said:

 

Oh I heard a few boos after Madson K’d him. Being a Goldy owner for 15’, 16’ and 17’ the guy just does not look anything close to his self. Not good for owners, I want to buy but I see absolutely nothing. If his name wasn’t Goldschmidt he’d be a FA in every league. He can’t be this bad can he?

i believe the fans were booing the ump there on that iffy called strike 3

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I just don’t believe in this humidor causing these problems.

 

I think it’s all mental. 

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1 minute ago, shakestreet said:

I just don’t believe in this humidor causing these problems.

 

I think it’s all mental. 

 

Really? You believe it's ALL mental and not even a little bit of humidor? 

 

He's hit a few balls in Arizona around the warning track so far this season. Very good chance those would have been home runs in seasons past.

 

And again, the humidor does more than just suppress home runs. It suppresses base hits of all kinds.

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I've tried to be patient with Goldy but after watching his AB's last night, and after hearing the ESPN crew put things in perspective. He's the ONLY MLB regular who hasn't gotten a hit on a pitch of 96 mph or greater...he has had 63 chances, that has me worried. I wanted to try to sell him while he still has perceived value, and I don't normally sell low.  

 

 

 

 

Edited by phatrat
Bench Coach content removed

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38 minutes ago, kidtwentytwo said:

I was going to try to buy low.  Looked at the game logs, he was equally bad in September and the playoffs.  His struggles began right about here

 

https://www.mlb.com/news/d-backs-paul-goldschmidt-has-injured-elbow/c-252436176

Ewww...after losing Seager to elbow/TJS & how it nagged him for a good bit last season, sapping a lot of his power along the way despite statements of "oh, it's just a little sore, nothing i can't play through, I just have to manage it, blah blah blah"....this tends to be what I believe more of Goldy's struggles than the humidor thing. Not to discount the humidor but he'd at least be gapping doubles & bouncing some off the wall or roping them down the line even with the humidor. 

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After reading up, I think this elbow thing is the source.  Probably a little mental aspect and humidor, but it all seems to go back to the elbow.  

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humidor has 0 impact if a player can barrel a ball. sure maybe a few flyballs that were hits/hrs are suppressed but nothing (outside of mental) you can put on the humidor.  

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8 minutes ago, colepenhagen said:

humidor has 0 impact if a player can barrel a ball. sure maybe a few flyballs that were hits/hrs are suppressed but nothing (outside of mental) you can put on the humidor.  

 

Okay, this is just ridiculous now. 

 

You can claim that Goldy’s struggles are mostly non-humidor related.

 

But to say that humidor has zero impact if a player can barrel a ball is scientifically incorrect.

Edited by ReyesMurphyWright
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Come on.  Wind has more of an impact than a humidor. 

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23 minutes ago, colepenhagen said:

humidor has 0 impact if a player can barrel a ball. sure maybe a few flyballs that were hits/hrs are suppressed but nothing (outside of mental) you can put on the humidor.  

 

Do you think barreling the ball suddenly makes the humidified ball have less effect?  How does that make sense?

 

If a ball travels say, 5% less, then it doesn't matter how its hit, it's gonna have an effect.  That could mean a great player goes from 50 HR to 40 HR, or that a mediocre player goes from 20 HR to 15 HR.  But it effects everyone and every hit.

Edited by The Waker
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1 hour ago, ReyesMurphyWright said:

 

Really? You believe it's ALL mental and not even a little bit of humidor? 

 

He's hit a few balls in Arizona around the warning track so far this season. Very good chance those would have been home runs in seasons past.

 

And again, the humidor does more than just suppress home runs. It suppresses base hits of all kinds.

 

I do think that in Goldy's particular case it is more mental and the humidor is negligible. The lack of offense in Chase is partly humidor driven, when looking at Goldy it appears to be much more than that. His contact rates are down. Career lows in fact. His hard contact rate is slightly down and his soft contact rate is double his career norm. Humidor's not going to have a whole lot of effect on swing and miss or how hard the ball comes off the bat, or at least not enough to double his soft contact rate. And just using the good old fashioned eye test, Goldy looks flat out lost. In all honesty, this is starting to remind me of Carlos Gomez's fall from grace in 2015.

 

Edit: I mean, this is a first-round pick that's looking like WW material right now. Humidor will have an effect, but not that extreme.

Edited by phillyphan21

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It does look like the humidor is having an effect.  At least from games I have seen, its cost him maybe 3 HR's at home.  He squared one up a few days ago that died at the warning track in dead center.

 

With that said, its maybe 15% humidor/85% other stuff.  The humidor doesnt explain his total lack of bat speed, indecision at the plate, and non-competitive AB's.  What that other stuff is, who knows.  Seems to be partly mental.  You guys might be onto something with the elbow.  Its usually not a coincidence when injury news hits and thats followed up by a decline in production.  We saw it with Seager.  He was not the same ever since his elbow issues popped up last August.  He struggled in August, September and in the playoffs.  Struggled in April this year.  Sure enough, he needed TJS.  Not saying the same exact thing is/will happen with Goldy, but its the scenario that makes the most sense to me.  You don't see players go from superstar/MVP caliber to below average at age 30.  Unless they are compromised in someway. 

Edited by nykid1981
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43 minutes ago, ReyesMurphyWright said:

 

Okay, this is just ridiculous now. 

 

You can claim that Goldy’s struggles are mostly non-humidor related.

 

But to say that humidor has zero impact if a player can barrel a ball is scientifically incorrect.

how does a humidor play into if a player can barrel a ball?

 

27 minutes ago, The Waker said:

 

Do you think barreling the ball suddenly makes the humidified ball have less effect?  How does that make sense?

 

If a ball travels say, 5% less, then it doesn't matter how its hit, it's gonna have an effect.  That could mean a great player goes from 50 HR to 40 HR, or that a mediocre player goes from 20 HR to 15 HR.  But it effects everyone and every hit.

smh you would see alot more drastic affects if this was true not just one or 2 players

still doesnt count for the k rate or other stats that are way off from goldy's last 3-5 years 

Edited by colepenhagen

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3 minutes ago, colepenhagen said:

 

 

smh you would see alot more drastic affects if this was true not just one or 2 players

still doesnt count for the k rate or other stats that are way off from goldy's last 3-5 years 

 

Isn't total offense at Chase drastically down?  I don't think anyone is claiming it's purely humidor.  It's obviously something else too.

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I am in agreement here that there is something else besides the humidor & mental situation in play. The aforementioned hard/soft contact rates have been ongoing since last September as @kidtwentytwo showed us. Took this former beast 10th overall in a OBP 12 team roto league and thought it was a godsend. At this point i am hoping for a 1 for 1 deal, netting me either Rizzo/Votto/Abreu in that order. If not, I may even throw in a piece. A springer or a JDM (yeah right) would also be welcomed with open arms in a 1 for 1 scenario.

Overall, I think the elbow may be in play here, something very Seager-esque. I'm trying to hop off the train before it becomes public that he is damaged goods.. Two weeks ago I never thought I'd be saying this. It's too long of a season to take this risk, and name value alone should at least net in a push if he somehow turns this around.

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5 minutes ago, colepenhagen said:

how does a humidor play into if a player can barrel a ball?

 

smh you would see alot more drastic affects if this was true not just one or 2 players

still doesnt count for the k rate or other stats that are way off from goldy's last 3-5 years 

 

Again - no one in here is claiming Goldschmidt's struggles are 100% humidor related. I'm only saying that his struggles are exacerbated by the humidor.

 

Before you said "humidor has 0 impact if a player can barrel a ball."

 

That is simply wrong. If a player puts a barrel on a ball, the humidor has just as great of an effect as it does when they fail to barrel up the ball. The humidor will always cause the ball to slow down and travel less far off the bat.

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2 minutes ago, ReyesMurphyWright said:

 

Again - no one in here is claiming Goldschmidt's struggles are 100% humidor related. I'm only saying that his struggles are exacerbated by the humidor.

 

Before you said "humidor has 0 impact if a player can barrel a ball."

 

That is simply wrong. If a player puts a barrel on a ball, the humidor has just as great of an effect as it does when they fail to barrel up the ball. The humidor will always cause the ball to slow down and travel less far off the bat.

you put the barrel on the ball you are going to have more hits its very simple

 

you want to get into the samantics of me saying 0 affect ok cool

it has an affect but it has 0 to to with what goldy is going through

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You can say the humidor has "0" to do with what Goldy is going through, yet something tells me that if he had those 3 homers the humidor has already cost him at home so far this season (instead of outs) to go along with a few extra base hits, there wouldn't be quite as much panic as there is in this thread right now.

Edited by ReyesMurphyWright
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17 minutes ago, colepenhagen said:

how does a humidor play into if a player can barrel a ball?

 

You act as if "barrel" is a binary state that a batted ball either possesses or does not.  This is likely due to the way the "barrel" stat has taken off as a shorthand for classifying batted balls with very good outcomes, but I think even the creators of the barrel stat would acknowledge that it's just that -- a shorthand, not a scientific property that batted balls are given when they meet certain exit velocity / launch angle requirements.  There are good barrels and better barrels, and none of them is immune to the effects of a humidor.

 

17 minutes ago, colepenhagen said:

smh you would see alot more drastic affects if this was true not just one or 2 players

still doesnt count for the k rate or other stats that are way off from goldy's last 3-5 years 

 

Arizona as a team had a.355 wOBA at Chase last year, good for 9th in the league compared to other teams playing in their home parks.  This year, their home wOBA is .291, or 28th in MLB.  This doesn't prove that any one factor is causing the offense to lag at home, especially given that we don't have a full season of games to compare to, but it's simply incorrect to say that only one or two players on the D-Backs are struggling.  Pollock has been playing out of his mind with a .413 wOBA, and Peralta and Descalso have been good as well at .385 and .366 respectively, but after that it's extremely grim.  We are not going to come to an agreement on how much effect the humidor is having, but you did say that it had zero effect, and that's exceedingly unlikely.

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2 minutes ago, tonycpsu said:

 

You act as if "barrel" is a binary state that a batted ball either possesses or does not.  This is likely due to the way the "barrel" stat has taken off as a shorthand for classifying batted balls with very good outcomes, but I think even the creators of the barrel stat would acknowledge that it's just that -- a shorthand, not a scientific property that batted balls are given when they meet certain exit velocity / launch angle requirements.  There are good barrels and better barrels, and none of them is immune to the effects of a humidor.

 

 

Arizona as a team had a.355 wOBA at Chase last year, good for 9th in the league compared to other teams playing in their home parks.  This year, their home wOBA is .291, or 28th in MLB.  This doesn't prove that any one factor is causing the offense to lag at home, especially given that we don't have a full season of games to compare to, but it's simply incorrect to say that only one or two players on the D-Backs are struggling.  Pollock has been playing out of his mind with a .413 wOBA, and Peralta and Descalso have been good as well at .385 and .366 respectively, but after that it's extremely grim.  We are not going to come to an agreement on how much effect the humidor is having, but you did say that it had zero effect, and that's exceedingly unlikely.

how much different do you think goldys stats would be without humidor? dude is playing like trash 

 

as for barrel the ball i was not looking into that stat or have any idea of how that stat is even calculated. i was just saying barrel the ball as making goodwood or hitting the ball well.

 

you dont hit 300 for 5 years and then hit 220 because the affect of a humidor. sorry i dont believe it. 

 

 

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I understand that a humidor shouldn't cause a player to strike out more but the Dbacks implemented the humidor to help pitchers have a better grip on the ball. With that being said, pitchers at Chase field might have a little better control/stuff than they normally would which could be a small reason why Goldy has been struggling so much at Chase. Still doesn't solve the problem why his bat is so slow. Traded him for Trea Turner in a keeper league before the season started so its not bothering me too much haha.

Edited by cjw3

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Just now, colepenhagen said:

you dont hit 300 for 5 years and then hit 220 because the affect of a humidor. sorry i dont believe it. 

 

I will cede this point if you can point to anyone in this thread saying that Goldy's slump is solely because of the humidor.

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