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Paul Goldschmidt 2018 Outlook

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2 hours ago, ReyesMurphyWright said:

 

Again, I'm not saying his struggles are all humidor driven 

 

That's pretty much exactly what you were saying.

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3 minutes ago, cs3 said:

That's pretty much exactly what you were saying.

 

From my first post on this subject:

 

"Goldschmidt's splits will not continue to be this extreme... but there's no question that the humidor is a big factor."

 

Calling it a big factor implies that it was not the only factor at play.

 

Every post afterward I clarified myself by saying that clearly Goldy's struggle at Chase Field are more than just humidor related but that they exacerbate his struggles.

 

I'm not sure what exactly you're trying to prove.

 

 

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And as for this:

 

15 minutes ago, colepenhagen said:

how much different do you think goldys stats would be without humidor? dude is playing like trash 

 

I thought about this a bit over the offseason.  Though I stopped short of arriving at a specific number, I expected that the combination of the humidor and other factors to lead to a "modest" drop in homers.  I also speculated that there was risk that the steals would take a step back, which looks to be the case so far.

 

I don't think anyone could have predicted that he'd enter into the kind of prolonged slump he's mired in right now, so clearly there are other things going on.  I don't see anyone disputing that.  But it's foolish to discount the humidor entirely when we've seen team-wide offense at home go down *and* team pitching numbers have improved significantly despite not having a healthy Robbie Ray for most of the season so far.

 

We still need to see more data, but I think there's plenty of blame to go around here.

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1 minute ago, tonycpsu said:

And as for this:

 

 

I thought about this a bit over the offseason.  Though I stopped short of arriving at a specific number, I expected that the combination of the humidor and other factors to lead to a "modest" drop in homers.  I also speculated that there was risk that the steals would take a step back, which looks to be the case so far.

 

I don't think anyone could have predicted that he'd enter into the kind of prolonged slump he's mired in right now, so clearly there are other things going on.  I don't see anyone disputing that.  But it's foolish to discount the humidor entirely when we've seen team-wide offense at home go down *and* team pitching numbers have improved significantly despite not having a healthy Robbie Ray for most of the season so far.

 

We still need to see more data, but I think there's plenty of blame to go around here.

Given the fact that you did foresee a bit of regression both with HRs & steals, are you in the camp that it is an overreaction to sell asap on him, or do you think these other things are more than enough to warrant jumping ship? 

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1 hour ago, kidtwentytwo said:

After reading up, I think this elbow thing is the source.  Probably a little mental aspect and humidor, but it all seems to go back to the elbow.  

 

What's this about his elbow? 

 

I don't think his issues are mental OR primarily driven by the humidor.   It's physical/mechanical.

 

Humidor would account for say a 15% drop in production.  But that shouldn't have an affect on K rate. 

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10 minutes ago, Motown_Magic said:

Given the fact that you did foresee a bit of regression both with HRs & steals, are you in the camp that it is an overreaction to sell asap on him, or do you think these other things are more than enough to warrant jumping ship? 

 

I have zero shares across my leagues (two dynasty, two redraft), but if I had him, I would certainly be listening to offers and starting a conversation with any team that has a glaring 1B need.  That's probably more teams than you might think, as the position has been "deep" in the sense of a lot of options you feel okay starting, but rather disappointing at the top -- consider that Hanley and Adams are top 5 options, while Bellinger, Rizzo, and E5 are all outside the top 10.  I know if I were rolling Hanley, Adams, Cron, Belt types out there as my starting 1B, I'd be looking to buy Goldy at 60 cents on the dollar.

 

Ideally you'd get the conversations started now and then execute when he hits a little bit of a hot streak, but if you're worried that streak may never come and your team is in trouble, I could see cutting a few rounds of losses by selling for a player at the back end of the top 50.  If you're not even getting that, then you just HODL.

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The biggest effect the humidor should have is on fly ball distance - how far the ball travels once it leaves the bat. It shouldn't have any impact on exit velocity, or swinging strikes, or batted ball mix. And really shouldn't affect plate discipline numbers (I realize pitchers *might* attack hitters differently if they believe that ball just won't leave the park, but I think that's unlikely to show up in a significant way this early).

 

According to statcast Goldy's average batted ball distance is actually up a few feet from last year! filtering that data to just flyballs/homeruns would be more useful but at first glance it seems the humidor is the least of Goldschmidt's problems. His soft contact % is literally double what it was last season, up rrom 11% to 22%. Thats a result of bad contact, not a result the ball not carrying far enough to elude defenders or go over the fence.

 

The other thing that immediately jumps out at me, which has been mentioned already, is that hes seeing by far the highest number of first pitch strikes in his career. I assume its a result of one of two things, or maybe a combination of both

1) Goldschmidt simply refuses to swing at first pitches for whatever reason, so pitchers are exploiting that tendency

2) scouts have identified that he's having major timing/bat speed issues and can't catch up to fastballs, so pitchers are attacking him with it over and over to start his atbat. Anyone know of a way to sort pitch type by count so this can be confirmed or thrown out?

 

All of that is to say that I really don't think the humidor is causing Goldschmidt's problems in any meaningful way. Even good hitters temporarily get into bad habits, go through prolonged slumps, etc. Also, eventually their physical ability always declines at some point. Really hard to determine which one this is at this point.

 

Edited by cs3
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5 minutes ago, tonycpsu said:

 

I have zero shares across my leagues (two dynasty, two redraft), but if I had him, I would certainly be listening to offers and starting a conversation with any team that has a glaring 1B need.  That's probably more teams than you might think, as the position has been "deep" in the sense of a lot of options you feel okay starting, but rather disappointing at the top -- consider that Hanley and Adams are top 5 options, while Bellinger, Rizzo, and E5 are all outside the top 10.  I know if I were rolling Hanley, Adams, Cron, Belt types out there as my starting 1B, I'd be looking to buy Goldy at 60 cents on the dollar.

 

Ideally you'd get the conversations started now and then execute when he hits a little bit of a hot streak, but if you're worried that streak may never come and your team is in trouble, I could see cutting a few rounds of losses by selling for a player at the back end of the top 50.  If you're not even getting that, then you just HODL.

100% agreed with this take. Personally I feel like the window to get some top 3 rounds ADP value back is closing quick when opposing managers click that name and see the 0's across the board the last 2+ weeks. It's brutal looking & a tough pill for them to swallow. Crazy enough,  he only has 4 less runs than Freeman. Name value alone should give Goldy owners a solid chance still to reel in a stud though. 

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1 minute ago, cs3 said:

 

2) scouts have identified that he's having major timing/bat speed issues and can't catch up to fastballs, so pitchers are attacking him with it over and over to start his atbat. 

 

 

This. 

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14 hours ago, Michael Bluth said:

Every single decision I’ve made this year has been wrong. So I’ll bench him next week for you guys

 

I did you guys one better. Just traded him away. PayPal donations can be sent to goldysucks@aol.com

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1 hour ago, cs3 said:

2) scouts have identified that he's having major timing/bat speed issues and can't catch up to fastballs, so pitchers are attacking him with it over and over to start his atbat. Anyone know of a way to sort pitch type by count so this can be confirmed or thrown out?

 

Well, sort of.  The Baseball Savant data shows that he's seeing ~5% more four-seamers in empty counts than in 2017, but that's because 2017 was an outlier:

 

image.png.a2d2e5c32b60f18a8b74fbb42ab7195d.png

 

If you break it down by all fastballs, not just four-seamers, the pattern is similar:
 

image.png.963fe3d2a063fb2ecc6429992ce95703.png

 

So yeah, it looks like pitchers are going after him with first pitch fastballs, but they were doing the same thing before 2017, and it's not like he just became a patient hitter in the last year or so.  Perhaps his swing's slowed down since then, but I wouldn't want to pin that on just a ~5% difference between two seasons.

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2 hours ago, tonycpsu said:

 

I have zero shares across my leagues (two dynasty, two redraft), but if I had him, I would certainly be listening to offers and starting a conversation with any team that has a glaring 1B need.  That's probably more teams than you might think, as the position has been "deep" in the sense of a lot of options you feel okay starting, but rather disappointing at the top -- consider that Hanley and Adams are top 5 options, while Bellinger, Rizzo, and E5 are all outside the top 10.  I know if I were rolling Hanley, Adams, Cron, Belt types out there as my starting 1B, I'd be looking to buy Goldy at 60 cents on the dollar.

 

Ideally you'd get the conversations started now and then execute when he hits a little bit of a hot streak, but if you're worried that streak may never come and your team is in trouble, I could see cutting a few rounds of losses by selling for a player at the back end of the top 50.  If you're not even getting that, then you just HODL.

i tried to go with smoak, but am looking to upgrade and now that rizzo is hitting, goldschmidt provides the best buy low op out there.  havent seen much on his elbow injury outside of last fall.  not sure if hes feeling effects of that still?

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Tony,

Interesting. I expected a much larger change than that, not just reversion back to his career norm.

 

Something weird definitely going on with that first pitch though. He has ro realize that pitchers are attacking him on it way more often than ever before.

 

Anyway, looking closer at pitch types, it appears he's handling the 4 seamer almost as well as he always has. While he has been swinging and missing slightly more on 4 seamers in the zone than normal, his LD% and wRC+ on the pitch appear in line with his career. What's really weird is that he hasn't been handling the curve ball AT ALL this year. Granted this is a tiny sample  of only 70 curves total this year so far, but hes seen 40 of them for strikes and has hit 0 line drives. He's actually only swung at 11 of those 70 curves. His swing % is just way way below any other pitch type.

His wRC+ on the pitch is 14, while in his career its 113.

Link here:

https://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfx.aspx?playerid=9218&position=1B

No idea what that means. Maybe he's made a conscious decision to just not swing at them, or could be they are screwing up his timijg so hes forced to to lay off. Probably just small sample noise but weird stuff.

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According to The Athletic "Goldschmidt insists he’s healthy, and Lovullo said he trusts that his star would tell him if something were bothering him."

This reminds me of the couple of years that Big Papi slumped big-time in April and May a little later in his career, and folks in Boston started calling for his release/retirement, only for him to have MVP level second-halves of the season.  Gotta believe a HOF-level hitter is gonna turn it around if he's not hurt. 

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17 minutes ago, OaksterDan said:

According to The Athletic "Goldschmidt insists he’s healthy, and Lovullo said he trusts that his star would tell him if something were bothering him."

This reminds me of the couple of years that Big Papi slumped big-time in April and May a little later in his career, and folks in Boston started calling for his release/retirement, only for him to have MVP level second-halves of the season.  Gotta believe a HOF-level hitter is gonna turn it around if he's not hurt. 

difference is Goldie can't heal up as a DH, big part of his value is as a basestealer, and Papi played in Fenway a hitters paradise where that stadium in Arizona has gone near the bottom in exit velo now due to the humidor.

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Fastballs and bat speed aren’t problem.  When he’s connecting with fastballs he’s still crushing them.  His problem is he’s watching too many first pitch fastballs.  He needs to be more aggressive early in counts.  His first pitch swing rates last year were tremendous.  They aren’t terrible this year (4/11 - just not much slugging).  His problems are falling behind in count and becoming a guess hitter.  He’s lost and it’s being shown mostly on curveballs. I don’t think there’s any loss of skills here.  It’s more so an adjustment phase.  The league is attacking him early.  He hasn’t adjusted yet.  He’s got a long way to go before we declare him dead.  If this slump was going on in mid July when he had a .980 OPS going in it would be a mere annoyance rather than under microscope.  

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The humidor absolutely cost him a HR tonight.  He squared one up to RF and it looked gone off the bat.  It just died right in front of the wall.

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3 hours ago, Cmilne23 said:

 If this slump was going on in mid July when he had a .980 OPS going in it would be a mere annoyance rather than under microscope.  

 

It's a month and a half long slump..... Pretty sure it would get plenty of attention in the summer

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10 minutes ago, The Waker said:

 

It's a month and a half long slump..... Pretty sure it would get plenty of attention in the summer

Hence the term annoyance,  not under the microscope.

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Just now, Cmilne23 said:

Hence the term annoyance,  not under the microscope.

 

I think that's drastically understating what the reaction would be.  Especially when you consider it's actually a 2.5 month slump when you count last September

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23 hours ago, colepenhagen said:

as a owner in 1 league i would take any top 15-17 player i like for goldy. for ex jdm, springer (if healthy)

maybe get lucky with stanton owner but unlikley after nice 4-4 from stanton

 

you would have better chance offering goldy + mid level sp if you have the sp depth

 

As a JDM owner, I would laugh at the Goldy owner if he offered a trade of the two. Not a chance I'd take that deal. 

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I'd rather hit in the cigar humidor deal than a windy Wrigly.  Wrigly is fun though.  Take that back I'd rather have fun at Wrigley.

not enough time to be splitting hairs. 

Edited by Bugs bunny

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3 hours ago, nykid1981 said:

The humidor absolutely cost him a HR tonight.  He squared one up to RF and it looked gone off the bat.  It just died right in front of the wall.

 

By all accounts, Goldschmidt has now lost home runs at home to the humidor this season. But as it stands, he currently has 0 home runs at home this season.

 

If not for the humidor there would probably still be some people in this thread worried about the high strikeout rate, but the general consensus would be "It's Goldy, he'll be fine."

 

AGAIN - not saying that his troubles this season have been strictly humidor related. But the humidor has turned what would have been a so-so / slow start to the season for Goldschmidt into something that truly has people concerned.

 

People are really twisting themselves into knots to try to pretend that the humidor is not a major issue.

Edited by ReyesMurphyWright

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6 hours ago, ReyesMurphyWright said:

 

By all accounts, Goldschmidt has now lost home runs at home to the humidor this season. But as it stands, he currently has 0 home runs at home this season.

 

If not for the humidor there would probably still be some people in this thread worried about the high strikeout rate, but the general consensus would be "It's Goldy, he'll be fine."

 

AGAIN - not saying that his troubles this season have been strictly humidor related. But the humidor has turned what would have been a so-so / slow start to the season for Goldschmidt into something that truly has people concerned.

 

People are really twisting themselves into knots to try to pretend that the humidor is not a major issue.

 

There would be less cause for concern if he had four more home runs, but he'd still be showing a lot of red flags. His soft contact rate still sits at double his career norm. He's also making less contact across the board, about five percent less than he normally does. That doesn't seem like a whole lot, but it adds up. He's not seeing the ball well, and when he does he's not making great contact. These problems are largely independent of the humidor. He'd have a few more home runs, but he'd still have a low average with bad peripherals.

 

Now, this is Paul Goldschmidt. He's been a great hitter his whole career. The type of great hitter that can play anywhere from Coors to Petco and finish the season with great numbers. A truly great hitter can adapt to pretty much any park, it's why most don't consider Arenado for example to be a product of Coors, it's obvious he's just that good (before anyone tries to get pedantic, yes I know his stats would be a little less stellar playing elsewhere). It's why A.J. seemingly hasn't been affected too much by the humidor; he's just that good a hitter that he's already adapted. People didn't expect Goldy to be overly affected by the humidor because he's supposed to be that type of hitter.

 

I'm still not sure exactly what I see Goldy doing this year. Looking at his career splits, he's always been about equal home and away. And he does have a low for him .300 BABIP. That said, he's making less contact so I'm not sure how much raising that will help. Maybe he goes the way Votto did a few years ago and Ortiz a few years before that and he turns it around and we all forget why we were complaining come September. Or maybe he goes the way of Carlos Gomez in 2015 and completely falls off. I hate to say it, but as each game goes by, the second scenario is starting to seem more likely. I hope I'm wrong, but I don't like this look for Goldy.

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